Fearless Rick's 2016 College Football Picks - Week 10 early games

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WEEK 10 NCAA Football Picks

All times Eastern

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Week 9 Results: Coin: 5-7 Rick: 6-6
Cumulative: Coin: 53-65-3 Rick: 61-57-3

Thursday, November 3

9:00 pm UCLA at Colorado (-12 1/2, 58 1/2) - One of the biggest surprise teams of 2016, the Buffaloes have surged to a 6-2 mark and the top spot with a 4-1 record in the PAC 12 South. UCLA has been an utter disappointment, winning only three of eight games overall and showing a 1-4 record in the conference.

However, the Bruins still have a chance to be bowl eligible if they can win three of their final four games, getting to six wins. It is doable, but requiring of a win here. That may be unlikely, but the Bruins have not lost any game by more than nine points (Stanford, 22-13) this season, so the points may be a bit of an overstatement of Colorado's strength and an underestimate of the balance in this topsy-turvy conference.

Coin Flip: Colorado

Rick's Pick: Buffaloes 34 Bruins 27

Friday, November 4

7:00 pm Temple (-10 1/2, 43 1/2) at Connecticut - At 4-1 in the conference, Temple is tied with South Florida for the American Athletic East lead. UConn, on the other hand, is dead last, putting up a 1-5 conference mark and a 3-6 record overall. The Huskies just aren't pulling the offensive sled very well. They have the lowest-scoring offense in the AA and that is going to be a problem against one of the best defensive teams. Temple should be able to shut down UConn, tire the defense and score at will late in the game.

Coin Flip: Temple

Rick's Pick: Owls 41 Huskies 13

Saturday, November 5

11:30 am Notre Dame (-7, 64 1/2) at Navy - Let's get real here. Notre Dame, despite their 30-27 victory over Miami last week, is not a very good team and unlikely to be invited to a bowl game.

They are 3-5 with four games remaining, so they'd have to come up on the right side of the scoreboard in three of their four remaining games, which, after this, are against Army, Virginia Tech, and, finally, USC on November 26. The Middies can sink their plans with a win, and it would appear that Navy can keep possession with their running game, leading to a victory. Don't be fooled by the line. This is a huge game for Navy and their players will be up to the task.

Coin Flip: Notre Dame

Rick's Pick: Midshipmen 39 Fighting Irish 27

12:00 pm Texas A&M (-13 1/2, 61 1/2) at Mississippi State - Right now, the Aggies have an inside draw to the national championship final four, but that is likely going to depend on the outcome of the SEC championship game. That appears to be against Alabama (which has already defeated the Aggies, 33-14), and that's one tough nut to crack, but A&M must remain focused and not look ahead. If they take one game at a time, they could conceivably finish up with a strong 11-1 mark heading into the SEC title game.

As for the Bulldogs, they don't deliver much of a bite. They're 3-5 (1-3, SEC) and defenseless. In their last two wins, over a month apart and against UMass and Samford (say what?), they allowed 35 and 41 points, respectively. A&M has firepower galore and may run up the score on their host.

Coin Flip: Texas A&M

Rick's Pick: Aggies 45 Bulldogs 21

12:00 pm Wisconsin (-6 1/2, 40 1/2) at Northwestern - The Badgers' schedule has been one of the roughest in college this season, but they've managed quite well, with close losses to both Michigan and Ohio State, but a big, 23-17 OT win at Nebraska last week. By comparison, this should be like a vacation for Wisconsin, but it is the ultimate trap game and the Badgers will have to guard against complacency.

The Wildcats got go to a very poor start with losses in their first two contests, but they're 4-2 since then, the losses coming against Nebraska (24-13) and last week, Ohio State (24-20). At home, they've got a chance to pull off the upset.

Coin Flip: Wisconsin

Rick's Pick: Wildcats 27 Badgers 23

3:30 pm TCU at Baylor (-7 1/2, 69) - 4-4 TCU has lost three of their last four, to Oklahoma, West Virginia and Texas Tech, the last one a 27-24 OT heartbreaker, so this seems to not be their year for greatness in the Big 12.

Speaking of heartbreakers, the Bears lost a 35-34 squeaker at Texas last week, ruining their perfect season. Baylor can get back on track here at home, also having to put aside any distraction from the sex scandal that has emerged recently. Should be a motived squad of Bears out there to rally for a win.

Coin Flip: TCU

Rick's Pick: Bears 42 Horned Frogs 31

3:30 pm Florida (-5 1/2, 47) at Arkansas - The Razorbacks were on their backs the last time they took the field, suffering a massive 56-3 defeat at Auburn. It's unlikely that Arkansas is really that bad of a team. After all, they're 5-3, but their 1-3 mark in the SEC may be telling a more in-depth story. They aren't truly competitive against the better teams. They lost by 21 to Texas A&M and by 19 to Alabama. Florida may not be of that caliber, but they're good enough to improve to 7-1, maintaining the top spot in the SEC East.

The Gators don't score much, but they don't have to. Their defense is the second-best in the country, at 11.7 points per game, just 0.1 behind leader Michigan.

Coin Flip: Florida

Rick's Pick: Gators 30 Razorbacks 10

3:30 pm Virginia Tech (-11 1/2, 52 1/2) at Duke - Winning on the road is never easy and this game will be a textbook example of the dangers of taking sides with heavy road favorites. The Hokies are 4-1 in the ACC Coastal division, sharing the lead with North Carolina. Duke is 0-4 in conference, but 3-5 overall and they may be on the improve. Their last two losses were both on the road, a 24-14 defeat at Louisville, and a 38-35 loss at Georgia Tech.

Virginia Tech is not an overpowering team and the Blue Devils still have a chance to become bowl eligible if they can win three of their last four. Big shot for the Devils here.

Coin Flip: Virginia Tech

Rick's Pick: Blue Devils 24 Hokies 23

3:30 pm Oklahoma State at Kansas State (-2 1/2, 58 1/2) - The Cowboys have won four straight, including handing West Virginia its first loss of the season last week, 37-20. Difficult to see how K-State can be favored here, but it actually isn't by much. The 5-3 Wildcats are often dangerous and are 4-0 at home. The Cowboys trail Oklahoma by one game in the division, so they must continue winning if they believe to have a shot at the conference title. They should do just that in this serious road test.

Coin Flip: Kansas State

Rick's Pick: Cowboys 34 Wildcats 24

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