NCAA College Football Bowl Week 3 Picks - Late Games
NCAA Bowl Week 3 Late Games
All times Eastern
Monday, December 31
Military Bowl
The Bearcats finished 10-2 and were ranked most of the season and it's a wonder that they're not. The two losses were to Temple, 24-17, in overtime, and 38-13 at UCF, where everybody loses. This is a quality team and program, ranked #7 in points allowed (16.1) sure to put a serious whipping on the Hokies.
Coin Flip: Virginia Tech
PREDICTION: Bearcats 41 Hokies 17
The same pretty much goes for the Panthers, who were hammered by Penn State (51-6), UCF (45-14), Miami (24-3), and Clemson (42-10). Given Stanford's usually-sound defense, Pitt probably won't be able to generate more than a few scores while their porous defense may allow the floodgates to open.
Coin Flip: Stanford
PREDICTION: Cardinal 41 Panthers 14
Given Oregon's aggressive play-calling and swift players on offense, if the Duckscan play any defense at all, this should result in a complete blowout. While the Spartans were 5-4 in conference play, their schedule was fairly rugged, but, so was the Ducks.
If Oregon gets off the mark early, it could be lights out.
Coin Flip: Oregon
PREDICTION: Ducks 34 Spartans 13
The Cowboys, as usual, had plenty of offensive firepower, finishing the regular season at #14 in points scored, at 38.4 per game. But, they had no defense, and that's always going to cause problems. After a 4-1 start, the Cowboys went 2-5, somehow beating Texas and West Virginia, while losing to TCU, Baylor and Kansas State. This rather large line may be a bit of a sucker play, because the Cowboys can score from anywhere on the field. Plenty of points will be scored in this game, and the Cowboys may get a cheap one late or win it outright.
Coin Flip: Oklahoma State
PREDICTION: Cowboys 42 Tigers 39
Also, neither team is what one could call an offensive powerhouse, so the defenses should be able to contain for the most part. This could be a rather low-scoring game as Utah's last outing produced a 10-3 loss against the Washington Huskies in the PAC-12 championship, whereas the Wildcats had totals of 40 or under on six different occasions. Northwestern did lose to Ohio State, 45-24, in the Big Ten Championship game, but the Buckeyes are in a different class altogether. Otherwise, it's very difficult to blow out the Wildcats and Utah probably won't do so.
Coin Flip: Utah
PREDICTION: Utes 19 Wildcats 14
The Aggies played a far tougher schedule, including losses to Alabama and Clemson, and they are simply a better team, top to bottom, on both sides of the ball. Balance is the key to A&M's game, but they can grind on the ground if need be and are a very physical squad, something which NC State is not.
Coin Flip: NC State
PREDICTION: Aggies 38 Wolfpack 17
Outback Bowl
The Bulldogs slogged their way through a solid SEC schedule, but the offense really suffered against elite opponents. In the four losses, to Florida, Kentucky, LSU, and Alabama, Mississippi State scored just 16 points, exposing a glaring offensive weakness. On the flip side, they blew away Arkansas and Ole Miss, 52-6, and 35-3, to close out the regular season. They have the stingiest defense in the country, allowing just 12 points per game, which is impressive. That kind of discipline on defense should be rewarded against an Iowa offense that isn't a world-beating type. Scoring here will be at a premium.
Coin Flip: Iowa
PREDICTION: Bulldogs 21 Hawkeyes 10
By comparison, Kentucky is right there, ranking #8 on defense (16.3 ppg), but way down, tied for #86offensively, averaging 26.6 points per game. The difference is that the Wildcats played a tough SEC schedule and defeated two ranked teams, Florida, and Mississippi State, while losing only one, 20-14 in OT, at Texas A&M.
Penn State's schedule wasn't easy, but in the three games against ranked opposition, they lost two, to Ohio State and a troubling, 42-7 defeat at Michigan, while beating an overrated Iowa team, 30-24. The Hawkeyes did not finish the season in the top 25.
It's hard to imagine a scenario in which Kentucky lets this game get away from them and getting six points is something of a no-brainer in this case.
Coin Flip: Kentucky
PREDICTION: Wildcats 24 Nittany Lions 20
The Knights won't have star QB McKenzie Milton, but that's OK, since backup Darriel Mack Jr. filled in admirably in UCF's 56-41 win over Memphis is the conference championship and will be the starter in the Fiesta.
LSU was as strong on defense as they usually are, finishing at #22 in scoring defense, allowing 20.9 ppg. UCF was #23, at 21.3. The Tigers losses were to Florida, Alabama, and Texas A&M, the last game a 74-72, 7 OT spectacle, which skewed LSU's stats to a large degree. If there's a team good enough to upend UCF, it's this LSU squad, but the same was said last year about Auburn, when the Knights took them down, 34-27, in the Peach Bowl. This is going to be a fun, defensive struggle.
Coin Flip: LSU
PREDICTION: Tigers 20 Knights 18
Washington lost their season opener to Auburn, 21-16, in overtime at Oregon, 30-27, and inexplicably at Cal, 12-10, so, for the sake of 10 points, the Huskies could have gone unbeaten. They'll have to be on their best defensively if they hope to contain the Buckeyes, a team that hit its best stride late in the season.
Ohio State's only loss was a 49-20 setback at Purdue, and, while their defense has been suspect at times, QB Dwayne Haskins is the real deal, and he's surrounded by talented backs and receivers. Washington is no slouch, though, and their combination of solid defense and no-nonsense offense may spring an upset.
Coin Flip: Washington
PREDICTION: Huskies 37 Buckeyes 34
That gave the Bulldogs two losses, which left them on the outside of the woefully short field of four (hint, hint, it needs to be expanded to six or, ideally eight teams) for the national title.
Texas displayed an affinity for playing to any other team's level. They managed to defeat the Sooners during the regular season, but lost to them, 39-27, in the Big 12 championship, their worst defeat of the season. Otherwise, the Longhorns lost by five to Maryland, three to Oklahoma State, and by one point to West Virginia.
Is Georgia as good as the Sooners, as in, can they win by 12. They're better than Oklahoma, but don't tell the Longhorns that. They'll be in it to the finish.
Coin Flip: Georgia
PREDICTION: Bulldogs 30 Longhorns 26
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Bowl Week 3 Early Games
12:00 pm Virginia Tech (6-6) vs. Cincinnati (10-2) (-5 1/2, 53 1/2) - At 4-6 with two games left on their regular season schedules, the Hokies needed wins over Virginia and Marshall, and got them, both at home, to go 6-6 and slide into bowl season. One has to wonder how this team lost four straight, midseason, and whether they'll have enough energy to conquer defense-minded Cincinnati.
Sun Bowl
2:00 pm Pittsburgh (7-6) vs. Stanford (8-4) (-6 1/2, 52) - This Sun Bowl is particularly hard to figure. Stanford was a major disappointment all season, often lacking offensive punch and losing four of five in the middle of the season, to Notre Dame, Utah, Washington State, and Washington. The Cardinal simply did not perform well against ranked, quality teams.
Redbox Bowl
3:00 pm Michigan State (7-5) vs. Oregon (8-4) (-2 1/2, 48) - The Spartans have plenty of talent on defense; their problem is that the offense isn't on the field long enough to give those guys any rest. Michigan State's offense sputtered most of the season. After starting 3-1, and scoring 38, 35, and 31 in their first three wins, their highest point toal the rest of the way - in which they went 4-4 - was 24 points.
Liberty Bowl
3:45 pm Missouri (8-4) (-8, 74) vs. Oklahoma State - A complete sleeper coming out of the SEC, Missouri finished with four straight wins and looked very good doing so. Their losses were to high caliber squads, Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, and Kentucky, and only in the 'Bama game were they blown out.
Holiday Bowl
7:00 pm #22 Northwestern (8-5) vs. #17 Utah (9-4) (-6 1/2, 45) - This will likely be the hardest-hitting game of the week, as both teams can be rather stingy on defense. The Utes were tied with Georgia at #16, allowing 18.5 points per game, while the Wildcats gave up 23.5.
Gator Bowl
7:30 pm NC State (9-3) vs. #19 Texas A&M (8-4) (-4 1/2, 58 1/2) - The Wolfpack started the season 5-0, got ranked, then quickly lost three of four, to Clemson, Syracuse, and Wake Forest. They finished with three straight wins, but those were over nothing competition: Louisville, North Carolina, and East Carolina, none of which made it to a bowl game.
Tuesday, January 1
12:00 pm Iowa (8-4) vs. #18 Mississippi State (8-4) (-6 1/2, 44 1/2) - Iowa started the season 6-1, but then lost three straight, at Penn State and Purdue, and home against Northwestern, though all games were close. The Hawkeyes possess a good blend of talent between offense and defense. Consequently, they're not explosive when they have the ball, and they're not exactly a shutdown defense, either.
Citrus Bowl
1:00 pm #14 Kentucky (9-3) vs. #12 Penn State (9-3) (-6, 48) - Considered one of the better offenses in the country, the Nittany Lions rolled up 34.6 points per game in 2018, registering at #30 in national rank. They were possibly even better on defense, ranked #20, allowing an even 20 points per outing.
Fiesta Bowl
1:00 pm #11 LSU (9-3) (-7 1/2, 55 1/2) vs. #8 Central Florida (12-0) - Besides Alabama, Clemson and Notre Dame, UCF is the only other undefeated team in the country, but since they play in the American Athletic conference, they're not even considered for the national championship. Still, they've won 25 straight game, the longest winning streak in the country, by far.
Rose Bowl
5:00 pm #9 Washington (10-3) vs. #6 Ohio State (12-1) (-6 1/2, 58) - Other than Georgia, the Buckeyes and Huskies were teams that conceivably could have played in an expanded championship playoff, but Washington's three losses prevented that and too many close games left Ohio State on the outside looking in, though both teams won their respective conference championships handily.
Sugar Bowl
8:45 pm #15 Texas (9-4) vs. #5 Georgia (11-2) (-11, 58) - Other than a 36-16 setback at LSU, the only reason Georgia isn't in the national championship hunt is a 35-28 defeat in the SEC championship game to Alabama, a game in which they had a two touchdown lead.
