NFL Conference Championship Pick - AFC
NFL Conference Championship Pick - Late Game
All times Eastern
Sunday, Janaury 20
6:40 pm New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 54 1/2) - The AFC Championship features the same kind of youth vs. experience as the NFC game, with 41-year-old Tom Brady setting up shop against the league's probable MVP, Pat Mahomes, who is 23, a rookie, but threw for 5,097 yards with 50 TDs and just 12 interceptions.
While Brady has been a staple in the Patriot backfield for nearly two decades, Mahomes is the freshest face in the NFL star-scape. He may have a case of butterflies entering the biggest game of his NFL career, but, over the course of the season he's shown himself to be a cool character, hardly rattled under any condition.
Mahomes led the Chiefs to a 12-4 record and a 31-13 trouncing of the Colts in the AFC divisional round. The Patriots were 11-5, has a bye in the first round and slaughtered the LA Chargers, 41-28, in their divisional contest.
The teams met in week six, when the Pats handed the Chiefs their first loss of the season, 43-40. The game made apparent the wide open offenses of both teams and the severe lack of defense by Kansas City. That seems to have been addressed, as the Chiefs thoroughly dominated the Colts last week and coach Andy Reid will no doubt add some wrinkles for handling Brady, who needs solid protection to be as effective as possible.
That's not to say New England's Bill Belichick is sitting on his hands. The league's pre-eminent game-planner Belichick is certain to employ backs or tight ends to keep Brady clean. New England also can make use of an empty backfield and quick throws to eliminate the pass rush, so they have enough offense to counter any improvement the Chiefs have made on defense.
Their largest loss margin was seven points, losing at Seattle, 38-31, in week 16. Kansas City was 7-1 at home, the lone loss a 29-28 squeaker to the Chargers in week 15.
New England was just 3-5 on the road, with losses at Jacksonville, Detroit, Tennessee, Miami, and Pittsburgh. It's the one question yet to be answered. Are the Patriots a different team away from Foxboro? The answer seems to be yes, and just the lingering doubt may be enough to throw the Pats off their usual brilliance.
They do have extensive experience in big games, however, which should mitigate, to a degree, their road woes. However, the Chiefs will unleash the full arsenal against them and coach Reid is nearly as good a tactician as Belichick. Once the Chiefs take a lead, there's unlikely to be any turning back.
Coin Flip: Kansas City Chiefs
PREDICTION: Chiefs 40 Patriots 31
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The difference will be in execution. If the Chiefs are able to slow the Patriots down and force a number of punts, they'll be in good shape on their home turf. In the case that the Patriots hold the ball for long periods on long drives, they'll have an edge, but the Chiefs have proven throughout the season that no lead is safe against them.
