2024 NCAA CFP First Round Games
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All times Eastern
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Dec. 17-19 Bowls Results: Rick: 3-1; Flip: 3-1
All Times Eastern
Friday, December 20
8:00 pm 10 Indiana at 7 Notre Dame (-7, 51) (ABC, ESPN) - The weather will play a big factor in how this game goes. It's expected to be near-blizzard conditions in South Bend, which will affect all aspects of play, but probably favor Notre Dame's defense and running game.
The Irish haven't missed a beat since losing their second game of the season, 16-14, to Northern Illinois. Ten straight wins, many in dominating fashion rates Notre Dame a tough out.
The Irish schedule may not have been very rigorous, but wins over Texas A&M, Louisville, Army, Navy and USC stand out.
Indiana benefitted from the expanded Big Ten conference, racking up 10 straight over the likes of Maryland, UCLA, Northwestern, Nebraska, and Michigan State, until meeting up with Ohio State and getting buried, 38-15. They do not appear to have the depth or experience to challenge Notre Dame.
Coin Flip: Indiana
Fearless Rick's Pick: Fighting Irish 28 Hoosiers 13
12:00 pm 11 SMU at 6 Penn State (-8.5, 52.5) (TNT, MAX) - Playing conditions have been cited as a factor favoring Penn State, though playing at home is probably a bigger element.
The Nittany Lions lost just twice, to Ohio State, 20-13, and Oregon, 45-37, both playoff participants. Their overall 11-2 record speaks of their quality and especially their defense, holding seven opponents to under 14 points.
SMU was the choice over Alabama, based upon their quality season (11-2) and their narrow loss to Clemson (34-31) in the ACC championship. The Mustangs scored 31 or more points in eight of their 13 games and late in the season, the defense began to pick it up in wins over Virginia (33-7) and Cal (38-6).
It would be a mistake to write off SMU. They play hard and to the finish and may upend Penn State.
Coin Flip: SMU
Fearless Rick's Pick: Mustangs 30 Nittany Lions 26
The Longhorns lost just twice, both times to Georgia, which adds to their allure. The last was a 22-19 loss to the Bulldogs in the SEC championship. Other than those two games, Texas has answered the bell every time.
Clemson might consider themselves lucky to be in the playoffs, but they earned it by winning the ACC championship, 34-31, over a game SMU squad. They are the only team with three losses in the tournament. Georgia, Louisville, and South Carolina each defeated the Tigers.
The pressure is clearly on Texas and that may work against them. Clemson may not win, but a loss might be by a very small margin.
Coin Flip: Clemson
Fearless Rick's Pick: Longhorns 20 Tigers 16
Before that, the Buckeyes had only one loss, 32-31 to #1 Oregon and they were on the verge of getting a chance for revenge in the Big Ten championship. The Michigan loss changed everything. Oregon knocked off Penn State in the championship while the Buckeyes could only watch.
Tennessee will be a touch opponent for Ohio State. The Vols won some big games, including victories over Alabama, Oklahoma, Florida, and Vanderbilt. Their two losses were to Georgia and Arkansas, both on the road. The Vols running game and stout defense will challenge Ohio State.
Tennessee's been knocking on the door the last there years under head coach Josh Heupel. This may be the year they break it down.
Coin Flip: Tennessee
Fearless Rick's Pick: Volunteers 24 Buckeyes 20
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Cumulative: Rick: 100-125; Flip: 104-121
Saturday, December 21
4:00 pm 12 Clemson vs. 5 Texas (-12, 50) (TNT, MAX) - Texas must overcome a nearly two-touchdown spread and a Clemson team steeped in big game tradition. While the Longhorns may rate a heavy favorite, during the regular season, they sometimes weren't as sharp as expected.
8:00 pm 9 Tennessee vs. 8 Ohio State (-7.5, 45.5) (ABC, ESPN) - Ohio State had everything going their way until that fateful meeting with Michigan on Thanksgiving weekend. The Buckeyes were out-hustled and out-played by a gritty Michigan team that made the annual rivalry a mission, and they delivered.
