NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships Picks
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Divisional Results: Rick: 2-2; Flip: 1-3
ALL TIMES EASTERN
Sunday, January 26
While 11 QBs have won a playoff games in their rookie season, only four have won two - Daniels, Joe Flacco, Brock Purdy, and Mark Sanchez - and none have won three, making this week's showdown with the Eagles in the NFC Championship possibly one for the record books.
Washington's chances are good. Despite being a six-point underdog, the last time they played the Eagles, they won, 36-33, though the game was in Washington, not Philadelphia, as Sunday's game will be.
Earlier in the year, in week 11, the Eagles took care of their division rivals, winning, 26-18, in Philly. The Commanders would lose the next week, to Dallas, 34-26, for their third straight loss, dropping them to 7-5 and in danger of missing out on the playoffs.
After a 42-19 blowout win over Tennessee and a 20-19 squeaker at New Orleans, the Commanders got to 10-5 with that win over the Eagles, beat Atlanta and Dallas to close out the season and then shocked the world, not by winning at Tampa Bay, 23-20 in the wild card round (though that was a pretty thrilling), but by going into Detroit and derailing the nighty Lions and their 15-2 record, stunning them, 45-31.
From the second quarter forward, the Commanders dominated, securing a lead they would not relinquish when Terry McLaurin took a Daniels toss 58 yards to pay dirt and a 17-14 lead. The half ended with Washington up 31-21, and they went on to seal the deal with two more TDs in the fourth quarter.
From Philadelphia's perspective, defending Jayden Daniels is their primary objective. He can, and has, damaged defenses league-wide with both his arm and his feet. He's shown to be cool under pressure and now, after a full NFL season and two playoff victories, he's experienced enough that thinking of him as a rookie might be a mistake.
Offensively, the Eagles have their own bag of tricks, starting with the adaptability of Jalen Hurts and the rushing skills of Saquan Barkley, who has turned Philly's offense into a monster. Always a threat to break off a huge run, Barkley forces opposing defenses to commit more men closer to the line of scrimmage, opening up passing and scrambling lanes for Hurts to hit receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, or dump off to tight end Dallas Goedert. Philadelphia's offense is capable of long, extended drives that wears down defenses, though the same can be said about the Commanders, as became evident as the season wore on and Washington wore defenses down and out.
Statistically, the Eagles hold a sizable edge on defense, allowing, by far, the fewest yards per game during the regular season, at 278.4. They were also second overall in points allowed, at 17.8, behind San Diego, at 17.7. Washington is quite a way down the list, allowing 327.9 and 23.0 points per game. However, as has been proven time and again (where are San Diego, Detroit, Baltimore now?), stats mean little when it comes to playoff football.
The pressure is clearly on the Eagles in this game. The hometown fans have been known to be less-than-forgiving, but they will be cheering their Eagles loudly. However, after last year's first-round flameout, a 32-9 drubbing at Tampa Bay, fan enthusiasm may fade fast if the Eagles aren't taking care of business or suffer turnovers of make mental mistakes resulting in costly penalties.
Washington has nothing to lose at this juncture, but there's always in-game pressure affecting coaching decisions as well as player activity. Dan Quinn is not going to wilt. He's been around the league long enough to keep his cool and Kingsbury will help make the right moves on offense.
For Nick Sirianni, this may prove to be a make or break situation for him. In his fourth season with the Eagles, he's looking to make his second Super Bowl after losing to Kansas City in 2022-23, 38-35, but he'll have to find a way to cool off the hottest team in the NFL right now and their probable rookie of the year quarterback to do so.
Coin Flip: Philadelphia
Fearless Rick's Pick: Commanders 30 Eagles 27
While the Bills generally have Kansas City's number during the regular season, beating them this season, 30-21, in week 11, making that four straight, dating back to 2021, the post-season continues to haunt them. For long-suffering Bills' fans, McDermott, Allen and crew offer the best hope to wipe away the memories of losing four straight Super Bowls from 1991 to 1994. They've yet to make it back to the big game, but this season appears to be their best opportunity.
Standing in their way are the Chiefs, with all-world QB Patrick Mahomes and Mr. Taylor Swift, aka Travis Kelce, an obvious future member of the Hall of Fame and possibly the best tight end ever to wear an NFL uniform.
Not to be outdone is the Kansas City defense, as formidable a force as exists in the league come playoff time. Under the tutelage of Steve Spagnuolo, Kansas City's blend of blitzes and zone coverages confuse and confound NFL offenses year in, year out, and, while this season may not have been their best, they showed up time and again in close games. The Chiefs won 11 games that were decided by one score, and six that were decided by three points or fewer or went into overtime.
Outside of the week 18, 38-0, loss to Denver, in which most starters sat out, only one team scored 30 points against the Kansas City defense, and that was, you guessed it, Buffalo.
So, even though more than a few pundits thought last week's Baltimore-Buffalo contest was a Super Bowl in disguise, this one is for more marbles. Kansas City is looking to become the first team to win three Super Bowls. The Steelers didn't do it. Joe Montana, Jerry Rice and the 49ers didn't, and even Tom Brady and his seven Super Bowl rings never won three straight.
To get there, the Chiefs will have to get past their main nemesis of recent memory, the Bills, who are hell-bent on preventing that.
Coin Flip: Kansas City
Fearless Rick's Pick: Bills 26 Chiefs 24
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Sports Home
NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships
Cumulative Playoff Results: Rick: 4-6; Flip 6-4
Cumulative Regular Season Final Results:
Rick: 132-128-10; Flip: 125-137-10
3:00 pm Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 47.5) (FOX) - Under head coach Dan Quinn, and with guidance from offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders are on the cusp of making NFL history.
6:30 pm Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-2, 43.5) (CBS) - Josh Allen, quarterback of the Buffalo Bills and likely league MVP, hasn't had any success against Kansas City in the post-season. He's 0-3, along with coach Sean McDermott, in playoff games against the Chiefs, losing, 38-24 in 2020-21, 42-36 in OT in 2021-22, 27-24 in 2023-24, two of those (20-21, and 23-24) conference championships.
