NFL Playoffs - Divisional Picks - Saturday
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Wild Card Weekend Results: Rick: 2-4; Flip: 5-1
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Saturday, January 18
4:30 pm Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8, 41.5) (ABC, ESPN) - The Chiefs have had an additional week of rest and some starters, including QB Patrick Mahomes, have had more, skipping the Week 18 loss to Denver.
As far as playoff experience is concerned, the Chiefs have it, from their talented defense to offensive stars Mahomes and Travis Kelce. Houston shocked more than a few fans with their utter dominance over San Diego, which boasted the best defense in the league on a points allowed basis, averaging 17.7, just a hair better than the Eagles, at 17.8. The Texans ravaged them in a 32-12 onslaught.
Kansas City ranked fourth in points allowed during the regular season, giving up just 19.2 on average, which was essential to their winning the AFC West, securing the #1 seed and first round bye as their offense failed to score more than 30 points in any game this season. They only did it twice, a 30-24 overtime win against Tampa Bay (November 4), and in a 30-27 nail-biter at Carolina. The Chiefs won 15 games, 10 of them by seven or fewer points.
Houston's defense stacks up pretty well, allowing 21.8 points per outing, but their seven losses worry some supporters. There's reason to dismiss a few of those games, especially Week 17's complete lay down against Baltimore (31-2), after they had already wrapped up the AFC South, and the shocking, 32-27 loss to Tennessee in Week 12, where the defense just fell apart as Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley ran roughshod and C.J. Stroud threw a pair of picks.
Otherwise, outside of a Week 2, 34-7, loss at Minnesota, the Texans fared well against top-tier teams. They beat Buffalo, 23-20, in Week 5, dropped a 24-22 decision at Green Bay Week 7, narrowly lost to Detroit, 26-23, in Week 10, and fell at Kansas City, 27-19, Week 16, less than a month ago.
It's probably going out on a limb a little to pick against the Chiefs, but after seeing how the Texans mauled the Chargers last week, they seem to have clamped down defensively (4 sacks, 4 interceptions) while C.J. Stroud seemed to have ample time in the pocket, Nico Collins caught seven balls for 122 yards and a score, and Joe Mixon rushed for 106 yards. Texans can spring the upset.
Coin Flip: Houston
Fearless Rick's Pick: Texans 26 Chiefs 20
The game turned on a late Tampa Bay turnover deep in its own end which resulted in Washington's turning a 17-13 deficit into a 20-13 fourth quarter lead. The Buccaneers tied it with 4:41 remaining, but Zane Gonzalez banked in a field goal off the right upright as time expired for the 23-20 victory.
Washington is an up-and-coming team worthy of accolades for turning around from 4-13 in 2023 to 12-5 this season, plus a playoff win, and Daniels is certain to garner offensive rookie of the year honors.
However, they face the league's #1 offense in the Lions, coming off a bye after shattering the hopes and dreams of the Vikings with a 31-9 pounding in Week 18 that decided the NFC North division and the #1 seed. If there's any team that appears ready to grab the golden ring and win the Super Bowl, the Lions are the NFC's best hope.
The Commanders are no slouches offensively, ranked 5th in scoring at 28.5 points per game. Detroit was #1 (33.2). Defensively, the Lions are 7th, allowing 20.1 points per game, while the Commanders are well down the list, giving up an average of 23.0. These slight statistical advantages will be expanded when the two go head-to-head.
Washington is good, but the Lions are the NFC's cream of the crop. Detroit won eight games by 10 or more points this season, a list that includes Green Bay, Dallas, Seattle, and Minnesota. Their two losses were a 20-16 setback to Tampa Bay in Week 2, and a 48-42 shootout against Buffalo in Week 15.
Coin Flip: Detroit
Fearless Rick's Pick: Lions 34 Commanders 17
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NFL Playoffs - Divisional - Saturday
Cumulative Regular Season Final Results:
Rick: 132-128-10; Flip: 125-137-10
8:00 pm Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-10, 56) (FOX) - Washington and rookie sensation Jayden Daniels managed to slip by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, playing a flawless game with no turnovers, though Tampa did manage to stop them on third and fourth down multiple times.
