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Fearless Rick & Coin Flip NCAA CFP Semifinal
All times Eastern
Last Week’s Results: Rick: 11-5; Flip: 7-9
Thursday, January 8
CFP Semifinal at the Fiesta Bowl
As unlikely as it seems, the Rebels turned the tables on Georgia in last week’s quarterfinal with a 39-34 win, avenging the October 18, 43-35, loss at Georgia in which the Bulldogs scored 17 fourth quarter points while holding the Rebels scoreless over the final fifteen minutes.
At 13-1, the Rebels are not to be discounted. Though they may be a bit looses defensively, the offense, led by QB Trinidad Chambliss and RB Ken Lacy, can cause nightmares for defensive back and coordinators. Chambliss, were it not for Indiana’s Mendoza, might have won the Heisman Trophy. He threw for more than 300 yards in nine games this season, is slipplier than an eel, and has made throws this season that other humans can only imagine. Lacy’s had six 100-yard rushing performances, the highlight a 224-yard effort against Florida in November.
If Miami doesn’t keep to its tasks diligently for the full 60 minutes, they may find themselves on the short end of the final score because the Rebels can make big plays in short periods of time.
The Hurricanes are the most controversial team remaining, due to the tournament committee’s consistent ranking of them behind Notre Dame, whom the “Canes beat, 27-24 in the opening week of the season, until, at the very last moment, ranking them ahead of the Irish. That caused such an uproar that Notre Dame opted out of any bowl game, finishing their season with the loss to Miami and a one-point loss to Texas A&M their only blemishes.
Miami lost two ACC games, to Louisville, 24-21, and to SMU, 26-20 in overtime, which kept them out of the conference championship. They did their best to make an impression by hammering Pitt in the final week of the regular season, 38-7. Once they got into the CFP, they proved they belonged with a 10-3 win over Texas A&M in the first round before topping Ohio State, handily, 24-14, in the quarterfinals.
Carson Beck’s experience at quarterback and his two main receivers, Malachi Toney and Keelan Marion, will be difficult to defend. Miami may score early and often if they’re clicking.
Not to be forgotten is Miami’s vicious front defense, which consistently stuffs the run and often turns quarterbacks into pretzle shapes. There also won’t be many openings in the secondary.
Coin Flip: Miami
Fearless Rick’s Pick: Hurricanes 34 Rebels 21
CFP Semifinal at the Peach Bowl
Oregon’s only loss this season was to these same Hoosiers, a 30-20 defeat in Oregon back on October 11. They’ve done little wrong before or after that game and are riding an eight game winning streak, the latest being a 23-0 whitewash of Texas Tech in a CFP quarterfinal game on January 1 at the Orange Bowl in Miami. At 13-1, they are as good an opponent the Hoosiers will meet this season. Beating them twice will take some doing.
Both teams possess championship qualities, ranging from exceptional quarterbacking to outstanding, hard-nosed, nearly impenetrable defenses. Oregon’s Dante Moore passed for more than 200 yards in 10 of 14 games this season. He is accurate, seldom makes poor decisions and can use his legs to get first downs, which he’s done often this season.
The Ducks did have a couple of close encounters this season, including a double-overtime, 30-24 victory at Penn State and a narrow, 18-16 win at Iowa on November 8. Since then, in five wins, their average margin of victory is 19.2 points. The win over Texas Tech last week was their best defensive effort of the season, showing that they are ready to handle any challenge.
Making comparisons to the 14-0 Hoosiers is difficult at best, given they are statistically superior to the remaining teams in the playoffs and all others that came before them. Quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner, Fernando Mendoza has been consistently excellent and displayed an ability to rise to the occasion as he did in tight games against Iowa, Penn State and in the Big Ten Championship game over Ohio State.
Defensively, there may not be a better unit than the Hoosiers for the past 20 years. Only two teams scored more than 15 points - Oregon (20) and Penn State (24). The Indiana defense has held nine opponents to 10 or fewer points, including each of the last four. Their absolute 38-3 dominance of Alabama in the quarterfinal game at the Rose Bowl last week was stunning. They are as ready as the Ducks and this game - in deference to the Miami-Ole Miss game on Thursday - may be the actual national championship because the winner here will be a heavy favorite on Monday, January 19 in Miami.
Oregon is a worthy team, but Indiana has beaten them once already this season and seem to be just a little bit better. Be prepared for a low-scoring affair with emphasis on field position, special teams, and place-kicking advantage.
Coin Flip: Oregon
Fearless Rick’s Pick: Hoosiers 24 Ducks 17
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