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Fearless Rick & Coin Flip NFL Conference Championships Picks
All times Eastern
Divisional Results: Rick: 2-2; Flip: 0-4
Sunday, January 25`
New England Patriots (-4, 42.5) at Denver Broncos 3:00 pm (CBS) - The first thing to understand about this game - besides that it’s the #1 seed (Denver) vs. the #2 seed (New England) - is that Bo Nix, the Denver quarterback who took almost every snap this season and into the playoffs, is out with a broken ankle, an injury that occurred on the second-last play of the Bronco’s 33-30 overtime win over the Buffalo Bills.
His replacement, Jarrett Stidham, ironically chosen as the #133 pick by New England in the 2019 draft, hasn’t thrown a pass in a competitive game since the end of the 2023 season. He led Denver to a 16-9 win over the Chargers on 12/31 and a 27-14 loss at Las Vegas in the final week of the regular season, on January 7, 2024.
Overall, in those two games, he wasn’t all that bad. He completed a combined 40 of 66 passes for 496 yards, two touchdowns and one pick. Prior to that, he played for the Raiders in 2022, the Chargers in 2000, and played for New England in 2019, though he only threw four passes, completed two and had one picked.
It’s reasonable to assume that he’s taken some of the rust off in practice with the #1 squad this week and, if given time, may be able to make some throws. Expect head coach Sean Payton to draw up some easier plays with quick, short throws, like slants, outs, screens. Of course, New England DBs will likely be aware of this and possibly be looking to jump some routes. As far as Stidham is concerned, he’s going to be more of a manager than a playmaker, though with six years riding the bench, he’s had plenty of time to develop. He is likely to be OK.
The Broncos will rely on running backs RJ Harvey and Jaleel McLaughlin to carry the weight. Look for Denver to try to get the ball into the hands of dangerous Marvin Mims Jr. as he could be a game-changer.
Courtland Sutton will be essential on possession downs. If Stidham can get him the ball, Sutton is Denver’s most sure-handed receiver. That’s not to say it’s going to be easy for Denver to move the ball. New England’s defense is good, not great, and they’re best defending the pass, so look for plenty of grinding ground game from the Broncos.
When the Patriots have the ball, they will lean on second year QB Drake Maye, as they have all season long. Maye has proven to be a versatile weapon with an accurate arm and enough savvy and speed to take off on the run if need be. Denver’s defense is very solid, so expect Maye to have to pick up a few - and possibly more than he normally does - first downs with his feet.
On the whole, New England has enough weapons that they can control the tempo and the clock. Stephon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte are excellent receivers and the backfield of Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson has been effective running the football all season. New England’s offense is one of the more balanced in the league. They ran the ball 494 times and threw it 502. Doesn’t get much more balanced than that, and that’s going to be the main challenge for Denver’s defense, figuring out whether it’s a run or pass in non-obvious situations because the Patriots can do either.
Between Denver’s quarterback situation and their defense, this should be a low-scoring game unless the Patriots find early success on offense or via turnovers. The Broncos will have to play nearly perfect football and not allow New England long drives or good field position. The keys for both sides will be clock control, field position, and the ground game. If either side is capable of establishing the run and mix in passes, that would likely be a winning formula.
Given Denver’s QB situation, it would be easy to side with the Patriots, but between Stidham’s overall experience, coach Payton’s planning, the Denver defense, and the four points the Broncos are getting at home, this looks like a positive situation for the home team in their mile-high air, which is another advantage.
Coin Flip: New England
Fearless Rick’s Pick: Broncos 26 Patriots 24
For all the hype Matthew Stafford has gotten throughout the season, he wasn’t very effective agains the Bears in LA’s 20-17 overtime victory, going 20 of 42 (47.6%) for 258 years, with no touchdowns and no picks. The prior week, in better conditions in the 34-31 win at Carolina, Stafford was 24-for-42 (57.1%) for 304 yards, three scores and one pick.
Stafford’s performance will be a huge factor in this game because the Rams depend on his arm and his leadership. Against the Seahawks, don’t expect Los Angeles to have much success running the ball, so getting it into the hands of Puca Nacua, Davante Adams and tight end Colby Parkinson will be essential. Running backs Kyren Williams and Blake Corum are not likely to get off many big runs. Seattle allowed an average of just 91.9 yards rushing and were the overall stingiest defense, giving up a league-low 17.1 points per game. Thinking the Rams are going to run the ball effectively is unrealistic, despite being the #1 offense in the league.
From Seattle’s perspective, limiting possessions and keeping the Rams’ offense off the field will be a priority and they have a defense capable of doing just that, though one wouldn’t have guessed it, a 38-37 overtime win by the Seahawks at Seattle on December 18. The first meeting between these NFC West rivals went LA’s way, 21-19, so, it can safely be assumed this is going to be a close call, either way.
Seattle stepped up its game agains the 49ers last week, roughing them up to the tune of 41-6 and putting a few key players on the sidelines with hard hitting throughout. To say that the Seattle defense is peaking would be an understatement. Of the four teams remaining in the championship hunt, Seattle’s defensive unit appears to be the most dominant. The Rams are the one nemesis that can hurt them, however. The Seahawks are riding an eight-game winning streak, and, after winning at Tennessee, 30-24, no team has scored more than 16 points, except the Rams.
Outside of that December 18 game, the Seahawks have allowed just 34 points in six games, including last week’s stomping of San Francisco. If it’s true that defense wins championships, then Seattle wins this game and the Super Bowl hands down.
On offense, Sam Darnold has continued to prove the Vikings made a big mistake letting him go after last season. He went 14-3 as a starter in 2024 with Minnesota, but it was the Rams who crushed him in the wild card, 27-9. Darnold was 25-for-40 for 245 yards, one touchdown and one interception, but he was sacked nine times. On that performance alone, the Vikings decided he wasn’t in their future plans.
Sunday against the Rams, Darnold will have the opportunity to purge any and all demons. He’s 29-7 as a starter the last two years, including playoffs. In that first meeting with the Rams this season, the 21-19 loss, Darnold threw four interceptions. One would figure that if he plays a clean game and doesn’t turn the ball over, Seattle can win this by a bunch. The only downside for Seattle is that they will be without running back Zach Charbonet, who suffered a torn ACL last week agains the 49ers and is out for the season.
The Seahawks have done everything right this year, including getting the #1 seed and home field. If Seattle’s offense can keep possessions and score some points, the defense will likely shut the Rams down often enough for the win.
Coin Flip: Los Angeles Rams
Fearless Rick’s Pick: Seahawks 30 Rams 20
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