NFL Week 1 Picks - Early Games

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Fearless Rick & Coin Flip NFL Week 1 Early Games

All times Eastern

Click here for late games.

Week 3 Preseason Results: Rick: 4-12; Flip: 8-8
Cumulative Preseason: Rick: 21-27; 21-27

Thursday, September 4

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5, 47.5) 8:20 pm - These teams meet twice every year, so it’s not like the Cowboys - minus Micah Parsons - don’t know what to expect. The last time these two teams met with Dallas QB Dak Prescott healthy was December 10, 2025, the result a 33-13 Cowboys win.

Much has changed since then, but it’s a new season, a divisional rivalry and a fat spread. The Cowboys have had ample time to get over the Parsons soap opera and move on against the reigning champs. Philadelphia has the usual awesome offense and stingy defense, but this game might be a little closer than people suspect. Dallas hasn’t imploded yet and a win here - or even a close loss - could go a log way towards building confidence.

Coin Flip: Philadelphia

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Eagles 24 Cowboys 20


Friday, September 5

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 47) vs Los Angeles Chargers (Sao Paulo, Brazil), 8:00 pm - The long-awaited trip south to South America should be a showcase for two teams that figure to reach the playoffs again in 2025.

Kansas City players, having been to multiple Super Bowls, should be able to shrug off all the excitement and get down to the nitty-gritty. The Chiefs won both meetings in 2024, 17-10, in LA, and 19-17, at home. Being these are usually close games and the line tilted toward the AFC champs, a field goal may decide it, so taking the points may prove out.

Coin Flip: Kansas City

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Chargers 26 Chiefs 23


Sunday, September 7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 47.5) at Atlanta Falcons 1:00 pm - Here’s another divisional game with a home dog.

Atlanta, which missed making the playoffs last season by going 2-6 down the stretch, won both games against the Bucs, at home, 36-30 in overtime, and at Tampa, 31-26. Michael Penix Jr. replaced Kirk Cousins at QB for the Falcons after having played the final three games of 2024, so he should be ready to go.

With Baker Mayfield flinging for Tampa Bay, expect plenty of scoring.

Coin Flip: Tampa Bay

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Falcons 31 Buccaneers 24


Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5, 47.5) at Cleveland Browns 1:00 pm - Joe Flacco gets the start at QB for the Browns, but he’s overmatched on the other side by Joe Burrow, who rallied the Bengals from a 4-8 start last season by winning their final five games and just missing the playoffs with a 9-8 record.

The Browns harbor no intentions of making the playoffs, or, at least they won’t by mid-season, and the lost to the Bengals twice last year, 21-14 in Cleveland, and 24-6 at Cincy.

Coin Flip: Cleveland

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Bengals 31 Browns 13


Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 48) 1:00 pm - Both WR Tyreek Hill and RB De’Von Achane are listed as questionable, which helps explain the Colts being the slight favorite.

Both teams went 8-9 last season and have aspirations for post-season play this year. New York outcast, Daniel Jones, won the starting job over Anthony Richardson, and rightfully so. Jones has enough experience to lead the Colts through the season and if Miami isn’t fully healthy, Indy could get off to a solid start.

Coin Flip: Miami

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Colts 23 Dolphins 20


Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5, 46.5) 1:00 pm - These were two of the worst teams in 2024, so it’s fitting they should open the season against each other. Carolina was actually the better of the two, posting a 5-12 mark to Jacksonville’s 4-13.

Both teams are sticking with their young QBs: Bryce Young for the Panthers and Trevor Lawrence for the Jags, but Young probably has more upside despite having played fewer seasons than Lawrence. He matured later in 2024 and should have ample confidence to deliver a victory here. Lawrence missed the second half of last season and is healthy again, but the Jaguars were just 2-7 before his injury.

Coin Flip: Carolina

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Panthers 30 Jaguars


Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots (-2.5, 43) 1:00 pm - A couple more bottom feeders in this match-up, but the Patriots feel they can improved dramatically over their disappointing 4-13 record from 2024.

Patriot QB Drake Maye has the skills, a year under his belt, and may get some assistance from his defense. The Raiders picked up Geno Smith from Seattle, so this game might actually become interesting. The Raiders were also 4-13 last season and 2-7 in road games, so giving them less than a field goal shouldn’t be an issue.

Coin Flip: New England

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Patriots 27 Raiders 20


Arizona Cardinals (-6.5, 43.5) at New Orleans Saints 1:00 pm - Hard to believe the Saints are such heavy underdogs, but, given their 5-12 record from 2024 and Spencer Rattler starting at QB, maybe it isn’t such a stretch.

Arizona missed out on the playoffs last season, going 2-5 after a promising 6-4 start and are always dangerous with Kyler Murray in the backfield. The defense figures to be improved as well.

Coin Flip: New Orleans

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Cardinals 31 Saints 14



Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 38.5) at New York Jets 1:00 pm - The long-awaited debut of Aaron Rodgers as a Steeler will be a prime consideration here, especially going up against the team he just left in a shambles.

On the flip side, the Steelers released Justin Fields and the Jets picked him right up and he will start. New York’s secondary may make the aging wonder think twice about taking downfield shots. Jets, as home dogs, may pull off the minor upset.

Coin Flip: Pittsburgh

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Jets 27 Steelers 17


New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-5.5, 46) 1:00 pm - Russell Wilson gets the start at QB for the Giants, but the big question is what will Jayden Daniels do for an encore after taking the Commanders to the playoffs in his rookie season.

Figure on Daniels to pick up right where he left off, driving opposing defenses crazy. If Washington’s defense improves just a little, Wilson won’t have a promising future as a Giant, where Jaxson Dart awaits his role as starting QB.

Coin Flip: Washington

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Commanders 38 Giants 10


Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-7, 42.5) 4:05 pm - By game time, the Broncos may be more than a TD favorite as Bo Nix had a swell season as a rookie and plans of making an even better showing in 2025.

For the Titans, all the hope and hype is behind the #1 pick in the draft, QB Cam Ward, out of Miami. Tennessee should generate reasonable offense, but their defense allowed 27 points per game (30th) last season and making a debut at Mile High isn’t the easiest of assignments for Ward.

Coin Flip: Tennessee

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Broncos 31 Titans 21


Click here for late games.


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idleguy.com September 2025
IdleGuy.com September 2025, Vol. 2 #9