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Write-ups and picks with Claude AI, Assistant Publisher
Week 9 Results: Rick 8-7; Flip: 7-8
Cumulative: Rick: 65-67-4; Flip: 73-59-4
Thursday, November 12
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants (-2.5, 41.5) (8:15 pm, Amazon Prime Video) - The Giants (5-2-1) lead the NFC East and are 6-2 against the spread, with four of their last five wins coming by one score. Washington (2-5-1) keeps losing close ones late, but the Commanders take care of the ball, with a +7 turnover margin to the Giants' -3. These two tied 27-27 in Week 5, and another coin-flip game is likely on a short week. Big Blue holds on at home, barely.
Coin Flip: New York
Fearless Rick’s Pick: Giants 20 Commanders 19
Sunday, November 15
New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions (-2.5, 51.5) (9:30 am, Fox, Munich) - Breakfast football from Germany. Detroit (6-2) scores nearly 28 points a game, and Jared Goff ranks among the league leaders in passing yards. New England (5-4) has failed to cover four straight, has a -11 turnover margin, and Drake Maye has struggled against winning teams. The Lions' pass defense has given up yards, so the Patriots will score some, but Detroit's offense travels just fine.
Coin Flip: New England
Fearless Rick’s Pick: Lions 30 Patriots 24
Buffalo Bills (-7.5, 50.5) @ New York Jets (1:00 pm, CBS) - Buffalo is scoring 33 points a game and piling up nearly 400 yards per contest, while the Jets average under 20 points and settled for field goals all day in their last outing. New York's best hope is forcing turnovers, since the Bills have been loose with the ball. But Josh Allen and that offense are too much for the Jets to keep up with.
Coin Flip: Buffalo
Fearless Rick’s Pick: Bills 31 Jets 20
Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 40.5) (1:00 pm, CBS) - Call it the Desperation Bowl. Miami is 1-7 and Indianapolis 2-7, and the Colts have lost five straight. The line has dropped from 6.5 to 2.5, a sign the smart money doesn't trust Indy, and the Colts have a -11 turnover margin. Miami converts third downs better and protects the ball better. In a game between two struggling teams, take the one getting points, and the outright upset.
Coin Flip: Miami
Fearless Rick’s Pick: Dolphins 20 Colts 17
Houston Texans (-4.5, 39.5) @ Cleveland Browns (1:00 pm, Fox) - The Deshaun Watson revenge game, if he plays after missing last week. Houston (3-5) leads the NFL in sacks, and Watson has been sacked more than any quarterback in the league. That's a nightmare matchup for Cleveland (5-4). The Browns are a strong 6-3 against the spread, but they score under 18 points a game and convert fewer than 40% of red-zone trips. The Texans' pass rush decides it.
Coin Flip: Houston
Fearless Rick’s Pick: Texans 23 Browns 16
Jacksonville Jaguars (-10.5, 46.5) @ Tennessee Titans (1:00 pm, Fox) - Jacksonville averages nearly 29 points a game, converts 46% of its third downs, and has a +8 turnover margin. The Titans score just 17 a game and rank near the bottom of the league in yards. The Jags win easily, but double digits on the road in a division game is a lot, and the line has jumped from 2.5 to 10.5. Tennessee hangs around just enough.
Coin Flip: Jacksonville
Fearless Rick’s Pick: Jaguars 27 Titans 17
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 45.5) @ Atlanta Falcons (1:00 pm, CBS) - Kansas City (6-2) has the edge almost everywhere: more points, more yards, better on third down and a +3 turnover margin against Atlanta's -8. The Falcons (3-6) are 3-6 against the spread and have been giving the ball away. Atlanta's home crowd keeps it respectable, but the Chiefs know how to win these.
Coin Flip: Atlanta
Fearless Rick’s Pick: Chiefs 27 Falcons 20
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-4.5, 41.5) (1:00 pm, Fox) - The NFC North is the NFL's best division, and this one matters. Green Bay (6-3) has covered six straight, and Jordan Love is on fire, leading the NFC at 290 yards per game. But the Packers are without RB Josh Jacobs, and Minnesota (6-2) has the league's top pass defense. The Vikings have dropped two straight after a 6-0 start and should come out angry. Packers win a tight, low-scoring battle.
Coin Flip: Minnesota
Fearless Rick’s Pick: Packers 20 Vikings 17
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (-1.5, 48.5) (1:00 pm, Fox) - Two 3-5 teams with very little separating them. Carolina has lost three straight, both straight up and against the spread. New Orleans converts third downs and red-zone trips at a better clip. Home field tips it to the Saints.
Coin Flip: New Orleans
Fearless Rick’s Pick: Saints 24 Panthers 21
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