NFL Week 3 Picks - Early Games

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Fearless Rick & Coin Flip NFL Week 3 Early Games

All times Eastern

Click here for late games.

Week Results: Rick 9-7; Flip: 10-6
Cumulative: Rick: 14-18; Flip: 19-13

Thursday, September 24

Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers (-5.5, 43) (8:15 pm, Amazon Prime Video) - Off to an 0-2 start after last week’s horrid, 34-3, home loss to the Panthers, the Falcons are saying Michael Penix Jr. is ready to play, fully recovered from his ACL surgery. If Penix is anywhere near 100%, that would be welcome news for Atlanta.

Green Bay has not lived up to expectations so far this season, blowing a lead to Minnesota in the opener, and having to go to overtime against the Jets for their first win. This is their home opener, however, so the knee-jerk reaction is to go with the Pack. Just seems a bit too easy and the score could be a lot closer than the line indicates.

Coin Flip: Green Bay

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Packers 20 Falcons 17


Sunday, September 27

New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 45.5) (1:00 pm, CBS) - Jacksonville ran into a determined Denver squad last week, falling, 20-13, in mile-high air. Back at home, the Jags are likely to be on their game, especially on defense.

New England comes off a solid effort against Pittsburgh, though that doesn’t carry much weight. At this point in their careers, Trevor Lawrence is much more a threat than Aaron Rodgers. If the Jags can find pay dirt early, their defenders may make it a rough afternoon for Drake Maye and the Patriot offense.

Coin Flip: Jacksonville

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Jaguars 27 Patriots 17


Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 43) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 pm, CBS) - In two games, the Steelers have scored a grand total of 23 points, including just three last week in a 20-3 defeat at New England. Aaron Rodgers was 23-39 for 187 yards and a pick, sacked four times for 43 yards in losses. The Pittsburgh ground game accounted for a mere 91 yards. Pittsburgh’s hopes of winning anything this season with a quarterback well past his prime are pipe dreams.

Joe Burrow is off to an OK start for the Bengals, 68% completion rate, three TDs and one pick, but the key is that Cincy is 2-0 and a game up on the Ravens, Browns and Steelers and will be looking to extend their edge.

Coin Flip: Cincinnati

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Bengals 30 Steelers 13


Tennessee Titans @ New York Giants (-2, 39.5) (1:00 pm, CBS) - Tennessee almost pulled off the upset of Philly last week, but, as is their forte, lost the game on a late TD pass from Jalen Hurts to Darius Cooper, 24-20. Now they face a Giants’ team without Jaxson Dart and James Winston behind center. Winston looked rusty, at best, against the Cowboys, but will have a week’s worth of practice entering this contest.

The jury is still out on Tennessee QB Cam Ward, who has one TD pass and 0 picks this season, but still hasn’t lived up to the hype. The Titans have turned him into a manager rather than a game-breaker. This is a game the Titans can win, but they are already 0-2 and their road record last season was 2-6, the wins coming at Arizona and Cleveland.

Coin Flip: Tennessee

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Giants 17 Titans 13


Seattle Seahawks (-7, 40.5) @ Washington Commanders (1:00 pm, FOX) - The loss of Jayden Daniels sends Marcus Mariota behind center as the starting QB, which is not desirable facing one of the best defenses in the league, even if at home.

Very difficult to like the Commanders in this one. The Seahawks may start Sam Darnold, but if he’s still unavailable, Drew Lock will be a capable replacement. He was 19-for-26 for 235 yards and three scores, no INTs in last week’s 31-7 slaughter at Arizona.

Coin Flip: Washington

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Seahawks 31 Commanders 10



Houston Texans (-3, 42) @ Indianapolis Colts (1:00 pm, CBS) - Both teams were expected to vie for the division title this year and they still might, despite 0-2 starts. Indy’s losses came against the Ravens and last week, at Kansas City, 33-30, in OT. Houston was topped by the Bills, 36-31 in week 1, and by Cincinnati, 20-6, both losses at home.

Why the Texans are favored here is a good question. They haven’t shown a winning profile yet and the offense was one-sided against the Bengals, only 18 rushes for 60 yards. Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud completed 30 of 55 passes yet failed to deliver a single touchdown. Houston has no run game and Indy will make their defense pay for that.

Coin Flip: Indianapolis

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Colts 24 Texans 20


Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo Bills (-7, 50.5) (1:00 pm, FOX) - So far this season, the Bills have looked simply unstoppable and Josh Allen is playing lights out. How the Chargers plan to stop the Buffalo offensive juggernaut is a real problem, just as is their 0-2 start to the 2026 campaign. Identical 26-14 losses, at home, to Arizona and Las Vegas, is an embarrassment.

The Chargers and Justin Herbert especially, have been hyped incessantly for the past three years but have failed to deliver the goods. Herbert has a QBR of 29.3 this year and has thrown more picks than TDs (3-to-2). Bills should romp at home.

Coin Flip: Los Angeles Chargers

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Bills 38 Chargers 17


New York Jets @ Detroit Lions (-6.5, 47.5) (1:00 pm, FOX) - The Lions’ defense is a joke. They’ve allowed 71 points in two games, second only to Indy’s 74 allowed. They’re only 1-1 because they managed to win at home over New Orleans, 31-30 in OT. Last week’s 41-31 loss at Buffalo showed just how porous their defense really is and it’s been a problem for two years. It’s not going to get fixed in time for this game and the Jets are hungry for a win.

New York took the Packers to OT last week, falling, 20-17. It was a second strong effort in a row after the week 1, 23-10, win at Tennessee. The Jets’ defense has been solid, the offense capable, but still in need of chunk plays. They should get a few against Detroit and spring the upset.

Coin Flip: Detroit

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Jets 28 Lions 26


Carolina Panthers (-2.5, 42.5) @ Cleveland Browns (1:00 pm, FOX) - Cleveland stunned Tampa Bay last week, winning, 23-19, while the Panthers made quick work of the Falcons in a 34-3 laugher.

After the win over Tampa Bay, Deshaun Watson remains the start for Cleveland. He was 24-for-30 passing for 238 yards and a pair of TDs without throwing a pick. This being the home opener for the Browns, expect them to give a solid effort and send Carolina home a loser.

Coin Flip: Cleveland

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Browns 24 Panthers 21


Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5, 46.5) @ Miami Dolphins (1:00 pm, CBS) - If the choice in this game comes down to the QB, is it Miami’s Malik Willis or KC’s Patrick Mahomes?

That about settles the debate for this game, a match-up of the 2-0 Chiefs against the 0-2 Dolphins. Sure, upsets happen, but this doesn’t look like one of them. Miami’s lasses have both come on the road, but they were so one-sided, home field is probably not going to afford much of an advantage. They lost at Las Vegas, 27-13 in week 1, and at San Francisco, 35-13, last Sunday.

Coin Flip: Miami

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Chiefs 31 Dolphins 10


Click here for late games.


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IdleGuy.com September 2026, Vol. 3 #9