NCAA College Football Bowl National Semi-Final ND vs. CLEM Picks - Cotton Bowl
NCAA College Football Bowl National Semi-Final NOTRE DAME vs. CLEMSON
All times Eastern
Saturday, December 29
Here are a couple of examples of games in which Clemson didn't run up the score:
At home, on September 29, the Tigers tangled with the Syracuse Orange in an ACC contest. Clemson trailed late, but pulled out a 27-23 victory over an improving Orange squad. What's notable about this result is the Orange also played Notre Dame later in the season (November 17) at Yankee Stadium and were hammered by the Irish, 36-3, when the Syracuse starting QB, Eric Dungey, was knocked out of the game late in the first quarter. The Orange weren't moving the ball anyway, but without Dungey, they had no shot whatsoever.
One other game of note for both teams was against the Pitt Panthers. Notre Dame barely got by with a 19-14 home win, whereas the Tigers polished off their regular season at home with a 42-10 shellacking of Pitt. Other teams that played both Clemson and Notre Dame were Wake Forest and Florida State, and both were blown out by both the Irish and Tigers. The point is that a game plan may or may not be working, a key player may not be up to his usual stature, a match-up may be bad for one team or the other, so these games can go either way. Notre Dame, under the right circumstances, could pound the Tigers, just as much as Clemson is expected to do so, according to the Las Vegas line.
Generally speaking, Notre Dame probably played a tougher schedule. The beat Michigan, 24-17, to open the season, then won back-to-back games against Stanford (38-17) and at Virginia Tech (45-23). They also won at Northwestern, 31-21, and USC, 24-17. The Irish belong here because they beat some very good teams and won every game, something only four teams can claim to have done this season. Only the Irish, Clemson, Alabama, and UCF were without losses in 2018.
Stat Rankings:
Scoring Defense:
As far as coaching is concerned, Davo Swinney is a legend in South Carolina, which is saying quite a bit, since Steve Spurrier coached at South Carolina for more than a decade, and he's somewhat legendary in his own right. But, Spurrier never won a national championship. Swinney has, capturing the collegiate crown in 2016 and he's led Clemson to five ACC titles. Notably, he's only 7-5 in bowl games, but his Tigers have met some of the best teams in the country over the years.
Conclusion:
There's a very good possibility that Notre Dame will put heavy pressure on freshman quarterback Trevor Lawrence and produce more than one turnover. Clemson's defense is also ferocious, and the Irish quarterback, junior Ian Book, will not be able to sit in the pocket and pick up receivers, though both he and Lawrence have proven ability on the run. The team that can make plays when the defense breaks down will likely have an edge, though the potential for a wide open, wild finish is also very high.
The bottom line is that Notre Dame hasn't lost a game yet, nor has Clemson. Somebody is going to come up on the short end of the scoreboard Saturday afternoon. This game looks to be a very even match, making Notre Dame, with the fat point spread in their favor, the choice.
Coin Flip: Notre Dame
PREDICTION: Fighting Irish 31 Tigers 27
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Cotton Bowl
4:00 pm Notre Dame (12-0) vs. Clemson (13-0) (-11 1/2, 55 1/2) - Right off the bat, one has to wonder about the point spread in a game this big. Both teams are undefeated, and both have had a few wins that were not exactly overpowering, so to think that the Tigers are going to roll over the Irish would be assuming a great deal.
At Texas A&M, on September 8, the Tigers won, 28-26. One would consider A&M a very solid football team, as they finished the regular season 8-4, and were ranked #19 entering bowl season. So, maybe Clemson didn't play particularly well. Maybe A&M was fired up. Maybe a little of both. Either way, this is an example of a solid team keeping the Tigers under wraps.
Scoring Offense:
Clemson (#4) 45.4 points per game
Notre Dame (#34) 33.8 ppg
Clemson (tie, #2) 13.7 ppg
Notre Dame (#9) 17.3 ppg
Brian Kelly is trying to join the ranks of some serious legends from the Notre Dame coaching ranks, including Knute Rockne, Frank Leahy, and Ara Parseghian. Between them those three produced nine of the 11 national championships for Notre Dame. Dan Devine and Lou Holtz each won one. Kelly, in his ninth year on the job, is looking to join that list. Kelly is 5-4 in bowl games.
Notre Dame is not to be taken lightly. While Clemson is easily the flashier of the two, the Irish play very disciplined football and have sufficient talent to make this a close game, at least. With Kelly's game planning, the Irish will seek to exploit any weakness they can against the Tigers, and their secondary is one of the top units in the country, so Clemson isn't just going to throw the ball all over the field with success.
