NCAA College Football Bowl National Semi-Final ALA vs. OKL Picks - Orange Bowl
NCAA College Football Bowl National Semi-Final ALABAMA vs. OKLAHOMA
All times Eastern
Saturday, December 29
That's all well and good, and the Sooners possess some of the best athletes in the collage game, but, then there's the Crimson Tide, a team that appeared to be in not just another league, another conference, but in an entirely different universe for the majority of the season, blasting the opposition from both an offensive and defensive posture, going undefeated through a rugged SEC season and four somewhat laughable non-conference games against Louisville, Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, and the Citadel. The combined score for those games was 214-52, in favor of the Tide.
The Crimson Tide played four ranked foes in 2018, all of them from the SEC. In September, Alabama topped Texas A&M, 45-23. After hammering the likes of Arkansas, Missouri, and Tennessee, it was time for the showdown at LSU. The result was complete and total domination by the Crimson Tide, in a 29-0 whitewash. The very next week, Alabama host #16 Mississippi State, a team with a top five defense. Alabama shut them out, 24-0. So much for the SEC. They mauled Auburn in the annual Iron Bowl, 52-21, but had to come from behind to win the SEC championship game against a determined and very talented group of Georgia Bulldogs, 35-28.
That SEC title game was the only time all season Alabama showed any sign that they were even close to belonging in the human race. They were other-worldly for a full three months. Now that they're down on terra firma, perhaps that big game nervousness has been shaken out of them as they approach the biggest game of the season, but - spoiler alert - it's not even going to be close.
Oklahoma may have the best offense in the country, but Alabama is #2, scouring at a pace of 47.9 points per game, and, arguably, against better teams. The other problem facing the Sooners is the Alabama defense, which, uh-oh, only allows 14.8 points per game, so the Sooners are not going to be able to run and gun as they usually do.
On the flip side, Oklahoma's defense is a disgrace. They are ranked #96 nationally. Yes, that's 96, with a 9 and a 6. As in four shy of 100, out of 130 teams. OK, so they play in the Big 12, where the focus is on offense, not defense. Still, allowing 32.4 points per game should disqualify a team from the national championship final four. But, because college football is an inexact science based on polls, rather than actual games, here are the Sooners and the 96th ranked scoring defense in the country, against the second-highest scoring offense in the country.
OK, so how many times is Oklahoma going to keep the Tide from rolling into the end zone? Twice? Maybe three times. If all the scores are touchdowns, then Alabama should score 63 or 70 points, and the Sooners will score 49, tops. Just on that calculation alone, Alabama is the clear choice, even surrendering the two-touchdown point spread.
There is another factor, and it's called Nick Saban. Saban is seeking his seventh national championship. He's already equalled the Alabama legend, Bear Bryant for the most national championships by a head coach with six. One was at LSU in 2003. The others - 2009, 2011, 2012, 2015, and 2017 - were as head coach of Alabama. He's seeking immortality.
Oklahoma head coach Lincoln Riley is a very solid coach, there's no denying that. But, he's only been head coach at Oklahoma for two years. Before that he was the offensive coordinator under Bob Stoops, so he is largely responsible for the Sooners' prolific offense. His problem is that he doesn't have a defense, and, as we all know all too well, defense wins championships.
Coin Flip: Alabama
PREDICTION: Crimson Tide 63 Oklahoma 42
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Cotton Bowl: ND vs. CLEM
Orange Bowl
8:00 pm Oklahoma (12-1) vs. Alabama (13-0) (-14, 80 1/2) - Somebody had to play Alabama, and that somebody turned out to be Oklahoma, with their Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, Kyler Murray and the highest-scoring offense in the country, racking up 49.5 points per game, on average, over the course of the season.
This game boils down to some simple math. Each team is going to have the ball roughly 12 times. How many times will Alabama be able to stop the Sooners from scoring touchdowns? Let's say five or six, maybe more. Since Alabama is a top five defense, that's probably a reasonable assumption.
