NCAA College Football Week 5 Picks - Late Games
NCAA Week 5 Late Games
All times Eastern
4:30 pm #14 Michigan (-14, 48) at Northwestern - A big-time roll is what the Wolverines are on, winning three straight after losing their opener, 24-17 at Notre Dame. Now, the wins were over Western Michigan, SMU and Nebraska, not exactly the highest quality opponents, but the margins of victory were huge (46, 25, and 46 points).
Northwestern's lone win was in week one, a 31-27 win at Purdue. They've since lost to Duke, 21-7, and Akron, 39-34. Michigan is probably a touchdown better than Duke, or more, at this juncture, so let's just call it a 35-14 win for the Wolverines. Okay?
Coin Flip: Northwestern
PREDICTION: Wolverines 35 Wildcats 14
Bth teams are 3-1, their lone losses to Kentucky, so Florida has just as good a chance to win on the road - or at least come close - as Mississippi State has of winning big. Looking for a flying finish with a win by a field goal.
Coin Flip: Florida
PREDICTION: Gators 23 Bulldogs 20
Duke, meanwhile, was hoisted up the rankings to #22 with their fourth win without a loss, a 55-13 romp over NC Central. Having already handled Army, Northwestern and Baylor handily, the Blue Devils are poised to make a run at the top of the ACC. This is Duke's first ACC game, and Tech is already 1-0 in conference play, making this an important meeting.
Last season, the Hokies rapped the Blue Devils, 24-3, but Duke won their final three games of 2017 and has continued to win. This one may be close, but Duke has a hot hand, is home and Virginia Tech has proven vulnerable.
Coin Flip: Virginia Tech
PREDICTION: Blue Devils 24 Hokies 16
There's no real statistical difference to speak of, with Ohio State allowing 17 ppg and Penn State, 19. Home field is a significant advantage at Beaver Stadium and its 106,572 capacity. It will be packed, loud, and largely an aid to Penn State.
Coin Flip: Penn State
PREDICTION: Nittany Lions 38 Buckeyes 24
The Cardinal survived a scare at Oregon, nipping the Ducks 38-31 in overtime. The Stanford defense is as good as it gets in college football, Stopping Oregon's run-and-gun offense was no small task, but they came up big in the second half and overtime for the win. Giving the Cardinal 5 1/2 points is probably a huge error since they will probably win this game outright.
Stanford's defense is tied for 10th nationally at 13.5 points allowed per game. The Irish are #33, allowing 19.3 ppg.
Coin Flip: Stanford
PREDICTION: Cardinal 30 Fighting Irish 24
South Carolina is likely to hold its own in conference play, but their true measure was taken in week two, when the Georgia Bulldogs tamed them, 41-17. The slim line here gives some credence to the quality of the Gamecocks, but the Wildcats may be better than anybody dares think. Their defense is tied for #7 nationally with Georgia, allowing a very stingy 13.3 points per game.
Coin Flip: South Carolina
PREDICTION: Wildcats 28 Gamecocks 10
Washington may be one of the best teams in the country, but they're probably not in the top six or seven. They already lost to Auburn, 21-16, and last week slipped by a suspect Arizona State team, 27-20.
The Cougars are tough as nails and have one of the headiest schedules in college football. They'll be ready to rumble at Washington, and the Huskies may be bitten before they know what happened.
Coin Flip: BYU
PREDICTION: Cougars 24 Huskies 20
The Tigers are notoriously tough at home. They were 6-1 in the swamp last season and already have three wins there this year. Chalk up #4 as they clamp down on the Bulldogs.
Coin Flip: Ole Miss
PREDICTION: Tigers 34 Bulldogs 17
Oregon, on the other hand, may still be feeling the after-effects of their 38-31 overtime loss to Stanford. It was a tough beat and meant a great deal in the larger scheme of PAC-12 dominance.
Oregon has an explosive offense and their defense isn't all that bad, we'll give them the benefit of the doubt here, as Cal has often wilted in the past when conference play has gotten underway.
Coin Flip: Oregon
PREDICTION: Ducks 38 Golden Bears 24
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Week 5 Early Games
6:00 pm Florida at #23 Mississippi State (-8, 50 1/2) - The Bulldogs and Gators share a common theme. They were both manhandled by Kentucky. Just weeks apart Kentucky dismantled Florida, 27-16, and last week hammered the Bulldogs, 28-7. The difference is that the Florida beatdown was at Gainesville, whereas State was torn apart at Kentucky. Since there isn't much difference in the scores, these games against a common foe should be looked upon as nearly equal.
7:00 pm Virginia Tech at #22 Duke (-5, 50 1/2) - Virginia Tech's reputation was badly tarnished by their huge upset loss at Old Dominion, a shocking 49-35 defeat last week. It dropped the Hokies out of the Top 25, leaving them at 2-1.
7:30 pm #4 Ohio State (-3 1/2, 70 1/2) at #9 Penn State - This should be one heck of a game. The Nittany Lions and Buckeyes are #1 and #2 in scoring in the FBS (1-A), at 55.5 and 54.5, respectively. Besides it being a key conference game, the winner may, down the road, claim a spot in the national championship final four, so the magnitude of this contest cannot be understated.
7:30 pm #7 Stanford at #8 Notre Dame (-5 1/2, 54) - Tough call in a huge rivalry. Both teams are undefeated, at 4-0, and each has had close calls. The Irish have not been overpowering foes, winning at home, 24-17 over Michigan, 24-16 over Ball State and 22-17 over Vandy. Their offense finally got untracked at Wake Forest last week, winning 56-27, as Ian Book starred in his first start as QB.
7:30 pm South Carolina at #17 Kentucky (-1 1/2, 49 1/2) - Seemingly out of nowhere, the Kentucky Wildcats are 4-0 and already have two SEC wins, having topped both Florida and Mississippi State. They are scary good on both sides of the ball and have done absolutely nothing wrong this season.
8:30 pm #20 BYU at #11 Washington (-17 1/2, 46) - Somebody didn't get the memo on BYU. Two weeks ago they stopped #6 Wisconsin, 24-21. In week one, they upended Arizona, 28-23.
9:00 pm Ole Miss at #5 LSU (-12, 59 1/2) - The Bulldogs were humbled last week at Kentucky, 28-7, and dropped out of the top 25. They're not as bad as that score may indicate, and LSU already has wins over two top 10 teams, whipping then-#8 Miami, 33-17, in week one, and dumping then-#7 Auburn, 22-21, on September 15.
10:30 pm #19 Oregon (-3, 58 1/2) at #24 California - Hard to gauge this game, as Cal only has three wins, but no losses, though they've beaten North Carolina, BYU, and Idaho State. The 21-18 win over BYU stands out as a quality win, but it's still iffy.
