NFL Divisional Picks - Early Games
NFL Divisional Round, Early Games
All times Eastern
Saturday, January 12
4:35 pm Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-5 1/2, 57) - While there will certainly be plenty of pundits who believe this game is all about the Kansas City offense, there is likely to be a vocal crowd crowing about the Indianapolis defense and Kansas City's lacking in that department.
While the Chiefs and the league's top offense (35.3 ppg) were taking a week off, the Colts were blasting the Texans, running up an early three touchdown lead before finally walking out of Houston with a 21-7 victory, advancing to the divisional round.
Proving that their 9-1 record through the end of the regular season was no fluke, the Colts enter the fray as one of the hottest teams in the race to the Super Bowl. Andrew Luck did enough to keep the Texan offense off the field and when the Indy offense did surrender the pigskin, they usually had Houston backed up near their own end zone.
That's unlikely to happen against the Chiefs, who possess much more firepower than did the Texans, but the Colts are equally unlikely to be held to 21 points. Figure that Indianapolis will match Kansas City score for score, and their capable defense will get its share of stops.
The Chiefs were 9-1 before losing to the Rams, 54-51. After that, running back Kareem Hunt was released during their bye week and the Chiefs went 3-2 down the stretch, barely holding off the Chargers for the AFC West crown.
Damien Williams replaced Hunt, and did a marvelous job, but the Chiefs proved vulnerable, losing to the Chargers and Seahawks in consecutive weeks after barely surviving a 40-33 win at Oakland and a 27-24 overtime win against the Ravens.
A high scoring affair is still the expectation, and though it will probably exceed the over/under line, the Chiefs may well be on the wrong side of it due to their shaky defense which ranked 24th during the regular season, allowing 26.3 points per game. They were also one of just two teams in the entire league to allow more than 400 yards (405.5) per game. The other was Cincinnati.
The Colts were ranked #5 in points scored, tallying 27.1 per game, making them very much alive in case of a shoot-out scenario. Getting points against such a miserable defense is a big plus.
Coin Flip: Kansas City
PREDICTION: Colts 38 Chiefs 30
Still, the Cowboys rallied from a 14-10 deficit in the fourth quarter for a pair of scores and the win. Seattle scored with just over a minute left, got the two-point conversion, but could get no closer. Seattle's final score put a little fear into Cowboy fans' hearts, but Dallas survived and moved on to meet the Rams in LA this weekend.
Dallas went 7-1 after a 28-14 loss to Tennessee in week 9 left them at 3-5. Their final record of 10-6 was enough to capture the unusually weak NFC East. The Cowboy defense is solid, allowing just 20.3 points per game (#6), but the offense leaves much to be desired. They ranked 21st in scoring (21.2 ppg), but were better down the stretch with the addition of Amari Cooper.
Offensive production will be paramount for Dallas because the Rams were second in the league in scoring, averaging 32.9 points per game. LA scored 30 or more points in 11 of its 16 regular season games, but they can be stopped, as evidenced by back-to-back losses at Chicago (15-6) and against the Eagles (30-23) late in the season. The LA defense has holes as well. They allowed 24 points per game (20th), and were 23rd against the run, allowing 122.3 yards per outing, a stat that will warm the heart of Cowboy Ezekiel Elliott, who won his second rushing title this season, amassing 1434 yards.
The Rams counter with Todd Gurley, who was third, with 1251 yards during the regular season. Both backs should have 20 or more carries here, but the thinking is that Elliott will be more effective while LA QB Jared Goff is a more accurate passer then Dallas QB, Dan Prescott.
All of that adds up to a close encounter of the smash-mouth kind. Don't expect either team to produce a comfortable lead, making the generous 7-point spread look mighty appealing.
Coin Flip: Dallas
PREDICTION: Rams 29 Cowboys 24
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Divisional Late Games
8:15 pm Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams (-7, 49 1/2) - The Cowboys' 24-22 win over Seattle in the wild card round shouldn't have been as close as the final score. Dallas outgained the Seahawks, 380-299, had 23 first downs to Seattle's 11, and held the ball nearly 10 minutes more than did Seattle.
