NFL Divisional Picks - Late Games
NFL Divisional Late Games
All times Eastern
Sunday, January 13
1:05 pm Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (-4, 47) - The contest may be at Foxboro, but the day could easily be a big one for Chargers' QB Phillip Rivers. New England's pass defense is not quite as good as it usually is, and if the Chargers can get any kind of game out of running back Melvin Gordon, Rivers will open up the passing game.
On the other side of the ball, the inestimable Tom Brady will be at the top of his game, but the LA defense may be just good enough to stifle Brady and company in the latter stages of the game. LA has proven its ability to hold on late in wins over Pittsburgh (33-30), Kansas City (29-28), and Tennessee (20-19). They may not impress all the time, but they're a solid unit come crunch time.
LA's 23-17 win over Baltimore last week was a bit deceptive. The defense held the Ravens in check throughout the game, but gave away two cheap scores in the fourth quarter which made the outcome appear much closer than it really was.
The Chargers held a 23-3 lead with under seven minutes to play before Baltimore finally found the end zone. Baltimore had only 11 first downs and 229 yards of offense.
It's unlikely that the Chargers will hold the Patriots back as well as they did the Ravens, but Rivers and the offense should be able to match the Pats score for score.
New England is an enigma. They played four games against playoff teams - Houston, Indianapolis, Kansas City, and Chicago - and won them all, but those games were all in the first half of the season. From week 10 on, they were only 4-3, with losses to Miami, Pittsburgh and Tennessee. They also lost early on at Jacksonville and Detroit. They're not the same kind of Patriot team that won six Super Bowls.
The Patriots will have the home fans screaming, but the Chargers are well-balanced, hard-nosed and battle-tested.
Coin Flip: LA Chargers
PREDICTION: Chargers 27 Patriots 20
That was how badly the Saints hammered the reigning champions and a number that will be on the minds of both squads come game time. The Eagles can rest their hopes on the fact that they went 5-1 after that, completed their run to the playoffs and knocked off the Bears last week, 16-15, taking down the team with the league's best defense. Chicago allowed a league-low 17.7 points per game.
By comparison, the New Orleans defense allowed 22.1 during the regular season, which is pretty good, ranking them 14 overall. The Eagles checked in with the #12 defense, allowing 21.8 points per game.
Another item that may catch one's attention about that ghastly November rout is that Carson Wentz was at quarterback then, but Nick Foles is running the show now, and he's proven to be gutsy and a clutch performer.
All of that sounds well and good for the Eagles, but that 48-7 still sits out there like an open sore. The Eagles would like to erase it; the Saints are out to repeat it.
New Orleans had the best record in the regular season, at 13-3. They lost their opener, 48-40, to Tampa Bay, and the last game of the season, 33-14, to Carolina, but that game didn't matter. In between, they were 13-1, the only loss a 13-10 mash at Dallas.
Well, this game isn't in Dallas, and the Saints already know what they're capable of doing to the Eagles. With a week off, they're fresh, they have home field for their duration in the playoffs and they're unlikely to give up that mantle without a fight. If the Eagles are able to stay close though the first half of this game, that would be a surprise. If last year's champs are completely defeated by game's end, that would be probable and predictable.
The Saints are too good. They'll win this game by at least two touchdowns.
Coin Flip: New Orleans
PREDICTION: Saints 38 Eagles 14
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Divisional Early Games
4:40 pm Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-8, 50 1/2) - There's one glaring data point in this match-up, and that is the score from a week 11 meeting of these two teams in New Orleans on November 18: 48-7.
