NFL Week Wild Card Picks - Early Games
NFL Wild Card Early Games
All times Eastern
Saturday, January 5
4:35 pm Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-1 1/2, 47 1/2) - The opening game of the 2018-19 playoffs ought to be a doozy, with two teams from the AFC South looking to move forward toward greater glory.
The Texans were the talk of the league through the mid-season, winning nine straight, beginning with a 37-34 overtime victory at Indianapolis in week four. Their win streak began after losing their first three games, to New England, Tennessee, and the Jets. By the time the streak ended in a 24-21 loss to the Colts, Houston had nearly wrapped up the division title while the other three teams floundered.
The Colts also got off to a very shaky start, starting out 1-5 before embarking on its own five-game win streak through the middle of the season. A 6-0 setback to Jacksonville on December 2 turned out to be their only loss since Mid-October, as the Colts won their last four down the stretch, beating Houston, Dallas, the Giants and finally, the Titans, in a win-or-go-home game on December 30 in week 17.
As the scores of the two meetings between these teams indicates, there's no "give" either way. The Texans finished 11-5, the Colts 10-6, and this looks to be the most even match of wild card weekend.
Colts' QB, Andrew Luck, has been at the top of his game, throwing for 4,593 yards on 430-of-639 passing, with 39 TD passes and 15 interceptions. His favorite target, T.Y. Hilton, grabbed 76 balls for 1,270 yards and six scores, but, despite being banged up all season, hasn't missed a game and will be a starter here.
The Indy run game is strong, with Marlon Mack getting most of the carries. He's rushed for 908 yards on 195 attempts. Mack is an inside runner with good cutting ability but without breakaway speed.
For the Texans, it's been Deshaun Watson to DeAndre Hopkins all season long. Hopkins was second in receiving yards (1,572) with 115 catches (3rd) and 11 touchdowns. Watson emerged as a viable thrower and was also the Texans' second-leading runner, scampering for 551 yards. He threw for 4,165 yards with 26 TDs and nine picks.
Both defenses are top notch, Houston was tied for fourth in points allowed - with Jacksonville - at 19.8 per game. The Colts were #10, allowing, on average, 21.5 points per game, though the Colt defense has picked it up significantly over the course of the season.
This is a tough call, but the Colts deserve an edge with Luck at quarterback and an offense that is a little more diverse than that of the Texans. Houston is very formidable against the run, but that's not the Colts' strong suit. Indy has to work the middle of the field to open up the passing game for deeper throws, but Luck is also an adroit scrambler when pressed. Should be one heck of a game.
Coin Flip: Indianapolis
PREDICTION: Colts 24 Texans 20
Some Cowboy fans may be a little surprised that "America's Team" is not a bigger favorite, but that's probably due to a week three trip to Seattle which resulted in a humbling, 24-13, defeat by the Seahawks.
However, that game was prior to Dallas' bye week and the biggest move of the NFL season, the Cowboys' acquisition of Amari Cooper from the Oakland Raiders. Cooper first appeared in a Dallas uniform the week after their bye, when the Cowboys were a mere 3-4 team. They lost, 28-14, to Tennessee on Monday night, but then went 7-1 down the stretch with Cooper emerging as the team's yardage leader among receivers.
In nine games, Cooper snagged 53 balls for 725 yards, but the Dallas passing attack is not dependent on Cooper having a big game. Six other players have 20 or more receptions and more than 200 yards. Tight end, Blake Jarwin, has emerged as a mid-level threat of late, and Ezekiel Elliott, who led the league in rushing (1,434 yards), caught 77 passes for 567 yards.
The Seahawks are unlikely to keep the Dallas offense out of the end zone consistently, and if Dat Prescott is on target, it could be a long evening for the Seattle secondary.
Seattle has an efficient, grinding style, employing the wizardry of Russell Wilson in RPO situations. Wilson is the ultimate playmaker, able to scramble for yardage, run in the option game or throw to a bevy of wideouts. Like Dallas, Seattle prefers to spread the ball around, though Tyler Lockett and Doug Baldwin are the most reliable targets. Running back Chris Carson has emerged as the regular back, a bruising inside runner.
Dallas has the defensive ability to keep Seattle in check, as evidenced by their epic, 13-10, shutdown of New Orleans in week 13. In their 10 wins, no team scored more than 24 points against the Cowboys except the Giants, in their season finale, a 36-35 Dallas win.
If Dallas can run the ball (and why shouldn't they, with the league's leading rusher) and control the clock, the defense should be fresh enough throughout to secure the victory.
Coin Flip: Seattle
PREDICTION: Cowboys 31 Seahawks 21
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Wild Card Late Games
8:15 pm Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-1, 43 1/2) - Both teams finished the regular season with 10-6 records, but the Cowboys won the NFC East, while the Seahawks had to settle for a wild card as the Rams ran off with the West division via a 13-3 mark.
