NFL Wild Card Picks - Late Games
NFL Wild Card Late Games
All times Eastern
Sunday, January 5
1:05 pm Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-2 1/2, 41 1/2) - Like Saturday's AFC wild card game, this one figures to be tight to the end, but the teams are as different as night and day.
Baltimore would like nothing more than to grind on the ground all day and batter the Chargers on defense, while LA wouldn't mind letting Phillip Rivers cut it loose and open up a scoring barrage.
The Ravens rely on youthful leadership in quarterback Lamar Jackson, the rookie out of Louisville who took over the offense after the week 10 bye and guided Baltimore to a 6-1 mark, capturing the AFC North division in the process.
Jackson threw for 1201 yards with six TDs and three picks, but his completion percentage was an unacceptably low 58.2. Jackson offset that figure by rushing for 695 yards in Baltimore's piecemeal, option offense. Baltimore's game is bruising behind Kenneth Dixon and tough wideouts, John Brown and Willie Snead IV, but their forte is defense. The Ravens led the league in yards allowed and were second - behind Chicago - in points, giving up just 17.9 per game.
The Chargers are more than adequate defensively, allowing 20.6 points per game as they compiled a 12-4 record, tied for the best in the AFC with Kansas City, losing out for the West division title, in a head-to-head tie-breaker. The Chargers lost to KC, 38-28 in week one, and beat them at Kansas City, 29-28, in week 15.
Phillip Rivers had his usual MVP-like season, throwing for 4,308 yards with 32 touchdowns and 12 picks. Keenan Allen was the leading receiver with 97 catches for 1,196 yards. Rivers spreads the ball around, however. Four other backs and receivers had 39 or more receptions and over 400 yards each.
These teams met week 15. Baltimore topped the Chargers, 22-10, in Los Angeles, as the Ravens forced three turnovers, sacked Rivers four times, picked him off twice and held him to 181 yards through the air. They also stifled the running game. LA had just 51 yards on 16 carries.
From that game, it appeared that the Chargers simply didn't have sufficient manpower on offense to knife through the Raven defense, and that may be the case again. If Baltimore can stuff the run, they'll be able to sit back and attack receivers on defense. The offense will likely grind out at least three scores and pull away late.
Coin Flip: Baltimore
PREDICTION: Ravens 27 Chargers 16
The Bears began the season already equipped with a respectable offense led by second year QB Mitchell Trubisky. When they managed to pry Kaleel Mack from the Raiders, the defense was elevated to elite status and the Bears were off and running.
Despite dropping their opener, a heart-breaking, 24-23, loss at Green Bay, the Bears won eight of their next 10 to seize control of the NFC North, finishing 12-4 by bruising opponents with stifling defense. In 10 wins, the Bears held the opposition to 17 points or less. In their final four games - all Chicago wins - the Bears allowed just 42 points. In their final regular season game, they denied the Vikings a trip to the post-season with a 24-10 stomping.
While Chicago was a defensive dynamo, the Eagles stepped up their game just in time to reach the playoffs. They were 4-6 and need the Bears to down the Vikings in the final week, but emerged out of Washington with a 24-0 win and a chance to defend their Super Bowl championship from the previous season.
The odd fate of the Eagles was that Nick Foles, hero of the Super Bowl, was forced into the starting role the final three games of the season after Carson Wentz went down with an injury in the week 14, 29-23, OT loss at Dallas. Foles came through with three consecutive winning efforts, as the Eagles dusted the Rams and Texans before conquering the Redskins in week 17.
Foles was dinged in that Washington win, but will start against the Bears. He tied a record for consecutive completions in his last game, completing 25 straight passes. The record was set earlier this season by Phillip Rivers.
Alshon Jeffery is the most dangerous receiver for the Eagles, but they have plenty of other weapons, plus a willingness to go the distance behind Foles.
The Bears have a statistical edge on both sides of the ball, but the Eagles aren't about to go down without a fight to the finish. They have plenty of post-season experience, and they demonstrated an attitude of never giving up down the stretch. Chicago should have limited success on offense, but there's a possibility that their defense will completely smother the Eagles. Philadelphia will have to play some small ball, with short passes and screens, hoping to move the ball with diligence.
The Eagle defense should be up to the task, but the Bears have been very good all season and there's ample reason to believe that they'll prevail in a tight game.
Coin Flip: Philadelphia
PREDICTION: Bears 20 Eagles 17
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Wild Card Early Games
4:40 pm Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears (-5 1/2, 41) - If Chicago was the surprise team of 2018 - improving from a 5-11 mark a year earlier - the Eagles were the comeback kids of the second half, winning five of their last six to capture a wild card spot in week 17.
