2024 NCAA CFP Semifinals
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NFL Playoffs - Wild Card Weekend
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Jan. 2-4 Bowls Results: Rick: 1-3; Flip: 1-3
Thursday, January 9
Orange Bowl, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
Defensively both are sound, if not exceptional. In yards allowed per game, Penn State is ranked 6th (288.8), Notre Dame, 8th (295.4). Notre Dame is second in points allowed, 13.6 (Ohio State is first, 12.1). Penn State ranks 7th, at 15.8.
Neither team can be called an offensive juggernaut, but they are more than adequate. Penn State scores at a rate of 33.7 per game, while the Irish average is a better, at 37.7, fourth-highest nationally. It might be arguable that Penn State played a tougher schedule, but, after seeing what Notre Dame did to Georgia last week - a dominant defensive effort and a 23-10 win - it appears Notre Dame's defense, and possibly the entire team, is peaking at the right time.
Penn State was dominant in both of their playoff wins, first blasting SMU, 38-10 in a very one-sided affair, then crushing Boise State in the quarterfinals, 31-14 while holding Ashton Jeanty to a mere 104 yards rushing on 30 carries, which, considering his ability, was quite the feat.
The outcome is likely to turn on a play or two, a missed field goal, turnovers or special teams, which makes this game one so difficult to pick a side.
From an historical perspective, Penn State's history is one of often coming up just a bit short with only two national titles, while Notre Dame has won eight national championships according to poll and playoff records since 1936.
The game should be hard-fought and low-scoring throughout, with Notre Dame's defense eventually stoning the Nittany Lions late.
Coin Flip: Notre Dame
Fearless Rick's Pick: Fighting Irish 20 Nittany Lions 16
Cotton Bowl, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Defensively, even though the Longhorns are eminently capable, allowing just 14.5 points per game (4th), the Buckeyes are #1, giving opponents only 12.1 points per outing. And, if the Buckeyes come out firing as they have the past two games, Texas will be fighting an uphill battle all night.
Texas scores, on average, 34.3 points per game, which compares favorably with Ohio State's 36.4 (10th nationally). While both teams have potent offenses, Ohio State has been devastatingly effective in its two playoff wins, trashing Tennessee, 42-17, in the opening round, and then getting cold revenge on the team that beat them by a point back in October and who won the Big Ten championship, Oregon, with a resounding, 41-21 victory.
The score of that semifinal win is even misleading, given that the Ducks didn't fin the end zone until the very last play of the second quarter, after the Buckeyes had already put 34 points on the board.
Historically, Ohio State rates a fairly good edge, as the line suggests. In the bowl and playoff era since 1936, the Buckeyes have claimed the national championship six times, Texas, four, their last coming in 2005, when Vince Young led the Longhorns past USC.
Ohio State is a powerhouse this year and has a long legacy. They've captured the title twice in the 21st century, in 2002 and 2014. They're looking for the trifecta and it's doubtful the Longhorns can prevent them from getting to the championship game.
Coin Flip: Ohio State
Fearless Rick's Pick: Buckeyes 34 Longhorns 21
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Cumulative: Rick: 111-141; Flip: 114-138
7:30 pm 7 Notre Dame (-1.5, 45) vs. 6 Penn State (ESPN) - This should be quite the grind. Both teams like to move the football methodically on offense, mixing run and pass, but mainly, running the ball is key to both.
Friday, January 10
8 Ohio State (-5.5, 53) vs. 5 Texas (ESPN) - It's quite possible that the Longhorns will find themselves overmatched in this semifinal contest. After defeating Clemson handily in their opening round game, 38-24, they had to go to double overtime to put away a pesky, determined Arizona State squad, 39-31. The Longhorn defense was worn down considerably in that game.
