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Fearless Rick & Coin Flip NFL Playoffs - Wild Card Weekend Early Games
All times Eastern
Week 18 Results:
ALL TIMES EASTERN
Saturday, January 11
4:30 pm Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, 43) at Houston Texans (CBS) - Houston exploded onto the playoff scene last season, but were a little disappointing in 2024, the offense only scoring 21.9 points per game, though wideout Nico Collins missed five games in October and November. With him healthy, the Texans are a better offense.
Texas QB C.J. Stroud didn't have the best of years. His second as a pro finished with 20 TDs and 12 picks, whereas in his rookie season he threw 23 with only five interceptions. More complex defenses - which the Chargers will employ - seems to cause him trouble. Still, the Texans did capture the AFC South, probably the weakest division in the league, giving them home field advantage over the wild card Chargers, who actually finished with a better record than Houston (11-6 vs. 10-7).
Los Angeles had the #1 defense in the league in terms of points allowed, averaging 17.7. Houston was middle of the pack, allowing 21.9. The LA offense scored 23.6 points per outing, on average. Justin Herbert had a solid season, throwing for 23 TDs with only three interceptions. The offense can get the job done, but the defense will put the clamps on Houston, leading to a fairly sizable winning margin.
Coin Flip: Houston
Fearless Rick's Pick: Chargers 30 Texans 13
Offensively, it's kind of a mismatch, with the Ravens offense behind Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry averaging 30.5 points per game, third, behind Buffalo (30.9) and Detroit (33.2). Pittsburgh put up 22.4 points per game on average, giving Baltimore a huge offensive advantage.
Given that these two already played twice this season, this becomes the rubber match. Pittsburgh won the first meeting at home, 18-16, but the Ravens responded with a 34-17 win on their turf just three weeks ago.
Pittsburgh punched above their weight most of the season in order to reach the playoffs, but it appears the Ravens have their number.
Coin Flip: Pittsburgh
Fearless Rick's Pick: Ravens 34 Steelers 14
1:00 pm Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-8.5, 47) (CBS) - Likely to be cold and possibly windy in Orchard Park, which suits both of these clubs just fine, they're used to playing under inclement conditions.
Buffalo's offense is top shelf, while Denver also has its moments and the Buffalo defense is likely to be accommodating to Bo Nix and his troops.
Denver's defense will do its best - and they are pretty good - to slow down Josh Allen, James Cook, et. al., so the result may be closer than some - especially Bills' fans - expect.
Kicking may be difficult and stressful, so special teams will need to be on good behavior and may be the deciding factor.
Coin Flip: Buffalo
Fearless Rick's Pick: Bills 24 Broncos 17
The Eagles won't have an easy time handling Green Bay's offense, which can be dynamic. Expect both sides to most long scoring drives. Red zone offense and defense will be key to winning or losing.
There's little separating these two teams. Philadelphia was seventh overall in points scored, averaging 27.2. Green Bay was next, at 27.1.
Defensively, the Eagles allowed 17.8 points per game, second, right behind the league-leading Chargers, 17.7. Green Bay allowed 19.9 per game, good for sixth league-wide. Home field will certainly help the Eagles, who were 8-1 during the regular season.
Eagles' QB Jalen Hurts is listed as questionable as of Thursday, but has made progress in the concussion protocol, though still not cleared. He should start, though he may not be 100%, given he sat out weeks 17 and 18. The Packers will give their best and could easily upend the Eagles. Getting four points in what figures to be a close game is a good take.
Coin Flip: Philadelphia
Fearless Rick's Pick: Eagles 27 Packers 25
Washington has played every game as if it were their last, so the team as a whole should be emotionally prepared. Tampa Bay holds a playoff experience advantage, having made the post-season every year since 2019, last year with Baker Mayfield replacing Tom Brady at QB, shocking the Eagles in the first round, 32-9 before losing at Detroit, 31-23, in the divisional round.
The Buccaneers will not go down without a fight, although they were only 5-4 at home, while the Commanders went 5-3 as road warriors.
Both squads leave much to be desired on defense. Tampa Bay allowed 22.6 points per game; Washington, 23.0. Offensively, they are also close. The Bucs were fourth, scoring at a 29.5 points-per-game clip, while the Commanders were right behind (5th), at 28.5.
Looks like a shoot-out which could go either way. Pick a side and pray. Taking the OVER might be a more sane choice.
Coin Flip: Washington
Fearless Rick's Pick: Buccaneers 42 Commanders 37
8:00 pm Minnesota Vikings (-1.5, 47.5) at Los Angeles Rams (ESPN/ABC) - This game may be moved to Arizona, depending on the situation concerning the fires in the Los Angles area. Otherwise, it may be the most intriguing game of the weekend.
The Vikings chased the Lions for most of the season after losing to them, 31-29, in Week 7, and then dropping the ball at these very same Rams, 30-20 in Week 8. They won nine straight, only to get pounded in the decisive Week 18 return meeting at Detroit, 31-9. The team has to be a bit deflated after that effort.
The Rams are a serious team, winners of five straight down the stretch to capture the NFC West and thus, home field advantage. prior to the meaningless Week 18 loss to Seattle, the Rams allowed just 24 points total in three wins over the 49ers, Jets, and Cardinals. Just before that they outscored Buffalo, 44-42, so they are capable on both sides of the ball.
Stats may not be relevant here, as the Rams had a slew of injuries early in the season, which kept their scoring (and wins) down. Fully healthy, they're one of the most potent offenses in the league. They finished the regular season mid-pack, scoring 21.6 ppg, though they can, and have, improved upon that. The Vikings were ninth, 25.4 ppg.
Minnesota's defense was 5th, allowing 19.5 ppg, while the Rams were again well down the list, giving up 22.7. Both teams are capable, but the Rams appear just a touch better at this juncture. A late field goal could decide it.
Coin Flip: Los Angeles Rams
Fearless Rick's Pick: Rams 23 Vikings 21
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