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Weekly Survey of Gold and Silver Prices

Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark

Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.

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Follow the Money: Bitcoin is Dead; Regional Banks in Trouble Again; Gold, Silver For the Win (FTW)

Friday, October 17, 2025, 9:13 am ET

Follow the money.

That was the line made famous in the film, "All the President's Men," starring Robert Redford and Dustin Hoffman. The movie was based on the book by the same name, authored by Washington Post reporters Bob Woodward (Redford) and Carl Bernstein. The essence of the infamous line was that during the Watergate scandal involving president Richard M. Nixon, Bob Woodward (Redford) and Carl Bernstein (Hoffman) attempted to track the flow of campaign contributions to uncover one of the biggest scandals in political history.

That was in the early 1970s. More than 50 years hence, Washington is more scandalous than ever, money is at a scale that dwarfs the piddling amounts that changed hands just after Nixon closed the gold window and took the world off the gold standard. The difference today is that while there may be no scandal or multiple ones, money, or rather, the flow and nature of money holds clues to the future of economics, politics, society, and the world.

Here are a few clues. Banks have lots of it. Money is flowing into gold and silver. Money is flowing out of bitcoin and crypto.

This tells us that money is on the move and also that its nature is changing. As Mike Maloney of goldsilver.com so frequently points out, money is a misnomer for what people use to buy and sell things. The correct and preferred term is "currency," and in that regard, fiat currencies - dollars, yen, euros, pounds - are being traded for actual money, which is gold, and silver.

It's useful to note that gold and silver have been considered money in countries around the world for literally thousands of years. Only recently has fiat currency, created out of nothingness by central banks like the Bank of England, the ECB, and the U.S. Federal Reserve, been cherished and regarded as ultimate reserve currencies. These currencies, backed by nothing more than faith and trust in various governments and their central bank issuers, are rapidly losing what little is left of their purchasing power. In a word, they are dying and will, at some point, no longer be used to buy and sell goods and services. Their replacements - as hard as it is to believe by the global population blinded by normalcy bias - are gold and silver.

This transition doesn't happen overnight. It takes, years, even decades, before the conversion from bad money to good makes a full trip. Gresham's law tells us that bad money drives out good. Currency of lower intrinsic value (bad money) will be used for transactions, while the currency with higher intrinsic value (good money) will be saved or exported. That is exactly what is happening with the price of gold and silver.

Look at it this way: The price of gold and silver aren't actually going up; the purchasing power of the currency by which people - hopefully you - are buying them is going down.

As far as bitcoin and crypto, which aren't money or even currencies, are concerned, it looks to be dead.

This all becomes a heck of a lot easier if you pay attention.

Oh, BTW, those regional banks like Zions (ZION), Western Alliance (WAL), Flagstar (FLG), and Banc of California (BANC) are in trouble again, this time for making loans to shady people, which, if there's anything that defines banks throughout history, is what they usually do, because, as a whole, bankers are willfully, woefully stupid and cheat each other and their customers with cavalier disregard for moral behavior.

In any case, it being Friday, it's customary to see how the various indices have fared thus far. For the week, through Thursday's close, the Dow is up 472 points, the NASDAQ is up 358, and thre S&P 500 is ahead some 76 points.

So, why worry?

At the Close, Thursday, Octoebr 16, 2025:
Dow: 45,952.24, -301.07 (-0.65%)
NASDAQ: 22,562.54, -107.54 (-0.47%)
S&P 500: 6,629.07, -41.99 (-0.63%)
NYSE Composite: 21,376.96, -193.96 (-0.90%)



Silver, Gold Are Signal Charts to Watch; Almost Everything Else is Noise Longer Term; Government Remains "Shut Down"

Thursday, October 16, 2025, 9:02 am ET

A close look at the overnight silver spot chart showed that around 1:32 am ET, silver spot set down a key reversal with a hammer pattern in place that marked a continuation of the uptrend begun Monday. Since that hammer appeared, silver has not traded below 52.48.

Should the closing level of 52.69 hold through Thursday's expected "bear raid" that occurs regularly just before the cash market for U.S. stocks opens (9:30 am ET), it's very likely that spot silver may have established a new bottom.

Everything else - stocks, interest rates, oil prices - at this point, is noise. Gold and silver spot prices are the only charts and prices that require attention. Continuation of the explosive uptrend is indicative of a complete reversal of fortunes in global financial markets.

There exists ample supporting evidence in other areas, such as the skittishness in stocks, jumping one way or another on tweets from the president, especially those concerning trade with China. The White House narrative, as clouded and murky as it has become, illustrates just how badly the major indices are juiced by High Frequency Trading (HFTs), algorithms keyed to headlines, and programmatic trading.

Adding to the bad mix on Wall Street are the Zero Days to Expiration (0DTE) options, operating as sentiment leaders on a minute-to-minute basis.

Bitcoin is another secondary indicator, continuing to bounce off $110,000 since September 26 with coincident near-bottoms stretching back to the May 21. Holding that level appears to be a key element of the crypto narrative. A significant break below it could trigger a waterfall effect, sending prices back to $92,000, which would make the trade even for the year, or, just below $70,000, the one year out level. Bitcoin's pattern from November of last year to the present is creepily similar to that of November 2020 to November 2021, wherein bitcoin ramped from $14,000 to an eventual peak above $64,000 with a double top firmly in place. After that, through June of 2021, the price of bitcoin continued to fall precipitously, eventually bottoming around $16,000 in November, 2022.

Should the same condition develop, expect losses in bitcoin of 40-60% over the next six to eight months, with a bottom setting somewhere in a range of $54-65,000. The drop, despite ending at a much higher level than the 2021 iteration, would be no less devastating to long-term, "diamond hands" hodlers. Anything below that level could trigger repudiation of the entire crypto space.

It's not by accident that precious metals and crypto have been diverging since earlier this year. Bitcoin has stalled and dropped while gold and silver continue to advance.

Another area of interest worthy of attention are one ounce silver coin and bar auctions on eBay. Observations over the past 24 hours show these auctions routinely closing at prices above $55, with some as high as $64 to $65 for non-numismatic coins, the idea being that a particular year of American Silver Eagle or Canadian Maple or other popular coin or bar might be worth more to an individual to complete or continue to build a consecutive run, not unlike comic books or other periodicals.

As the morning progresses toward the opening bell, stock futures are modestly higher, which is the usual case, especially during earnings season, which is almost entirely meaningless in the current context.

Gold is off to the races again, above $4,235, though silver is being threatened by the bears again, knocked down to $52.80 at 8:45 am ET, as the usual morning bear raid commences, but as of this writing, the aforementioned level of $52.48 has not been breached and has actually not even come close to being a low.

The idea that silver does not follow gold's lead higher is ludicrous and indicative of the desperation in London as their vaults are being emptied by dealers and buyers standing for delivery. The LBMA and COMEX riggers are not long for this world. They will be euphemistically "carried out on stretchers" before his episode in precious metals is resolved.

Fascinating times...

At the Close, Wednesday, October 15, 2025:
Dow: 46,253.31, -17.15 (-0.04%)
NASDAQ: 22,670.08, +148.38 (+0.66%)
S&P 500: 6,671.06, +26.75 (+0.40%)
NYSE Composite: 21,570.92, +70.67 (+0.33%)



Silver, Gold Higher; Oil Glut to Reach 4 Million Barrels a Day; Military to Get Paid as Government Shutdown Continues

Wednesday, October 15, 2025, 9:19 am ET

The federal government, whatever form it may take while it is supposedly "shut down", does have its priorities. First and foremost, it appears, is to keep the military industrial complex operational.

Less than a week ago, though scantily reported in the MSM, the Senate voted to fund the military at $925 billion in fiscal 2026. The passage paves the way for reconciliation with the House and also included $500 million for Ukraine. The bill received overwhelming support.

While a stand-alone bill to pay military service members, civilian workers and contractors did not make it to the floor, President Donald Trump directed the Pentagon to use research and development funds to pay the troops if the shutdown persists, according to Reuters. Paychecks are due on the 15th, i.e., today.

As Americans are well aware, war is an essential function of the government. The shutdown is in its 15th day.

Elsewhere, Wall Street continues to carry on as usual. The Dow Industrials made a 1000-point round trip on Tuesday, dropping 500 in the opening half hour, rising 500 above the prior close later in the day, to end up nearly 0.50% higher. The NASDAQ and S&P were less fortunate.

Bank earnings buoyed the market in general, though tech continued to be skittish.

Companies reporting third quarter earnings Wednesday before the opening bell included Morgan Stanley (MS), Synchrony Financial (SYF), Citizen's Financial (CFG), First Horizon (FHN), Bank of America (BAC), ASML (ASML), Progressive (PGR), Abbott Labs (ABT).

Bank earnings continue to be a bright spot. Morgan Stanley (MS) and Bank of America (BAC) reported record revenues in the quarter. Both stocks are up three to four percent pre-market.

ASML (ASML) missed on the revenue side, but investors are apparently reassured by the company's forecast, sending shares higher by four percent. The company manufactures equipment used in chip-making.

Ahead of its investor day presentation, Dollar Tree (DLTR) reiterated its forcast for growth of 10% over the coming 12 months. Shares of the discounter are up seven precent prior to the bell.

Ahead of the open, stock futures are higher. Dow: +238; NASDAQ: +255; S&P: +52.

Crude oil is likely to remain under pressure for some time and gas prices should continue to fall. The IEA forecast a global glut of 4 million barrels a day in 2026.

What's really important is spot silver priced at $52.50 and gold at $4,185. Silver broke above $53 overnight, and gold traded above $4,200. Suppression efforts continue in vain. They only forestall the inevitable.

At the Close, Tuesday, October 14, 2025:
Dow: 46,270.46, +202.88 (+0.44%)
NASDAQ: 22,521.70, -172.91 (-0.76%)
S&P 500: 6,644.31, -10.41 (-0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 21,500.25, +118.46 (+0.55%)



Government Shutdown Day 14: US-China Trade Tensions Rise; Big Banks Report; Gold, Silver ATHs, Bounce; Crude Oil Dumped; Bitcoin Smoked

Tuesday, October 14, 2025, 9:12 am ET

Late night Monday, spot silver hit an all-time high of $53.62. As Monday turned into Tuesday, prices fell to as low as $50.90 in extremely thin trading. At the same time, gold traded at its own all-time high $4,179.60, subsequently beaten down to as low as $4,090.15. The main difference in the two metals' trading was the massive volume in gold, which indicates that it took far more effort to bring down the price of gold by nearly $100 than it did to send silver down some $2.50.

Whenever prices rise as quickly as those of gold and silver have over the past few days and weeks, there's likely to be more than the usual share of speculation responsible for both the rapid advance and quick reversals that are taking place. While precious metals were being whipsawed overnight, the US$ was also gaining, contributing to the feverish trading in gold. Because of the overlayering of global politics, particularly US-China trade tensions, this level of volatility in all markets is likely to be persistent.

Stocks reversed on Monday after Friday's enormous selloff. Both the downdraft Friday and recovery Monday were predicated on tweets or "Truths" from President Trump on social media and little else. Turning to Tuesday's markets, gold has recovered from overnight lows, but silver has not. testing down closer to $50. Traders in London are frantically attempting to bring silver's price back down below $50 in order to assuage fears that London's vaults are nearly empty, which has been the unfolding story for months. The level of skullduggery, lies, and half-truths about silver supply could fill an almanac.

Silver remains the stake striking at the heart of the global economy, its suppression essential to maintaining world economic order and dominion of central banks. According to those in power, silver's real value cannot be exposed to the general public. Since Friday, the public has gotten a glimpse, obviously liked what it saw. With London and New York aghast at this development, every effort was made to plug the leaks in the narrative and assure markets that all was well and that the recent spike was nothing more than an ill-intended short squeeze. That's at least a partial truth and there's probably going to be an even ore concerted effort at squelching silver prices as the drama unfolds.

As the completely bogus government shutdown enters Day 14 it's hardly even news anymore. The Senate continues to pretend they're trying to reach a compromise while failing to vote on a standalone bill to pay both civilian and uniformed military personnel whose next paycheck is supposedly due on Wednesday, October 15 (tomorrow). President Trump, fresh off his victory lap for "ending" the Hamas-Israel war, has instructed War Secretary Pete Hegseth to use "all available funds" to pay the tropps. There are some two million military personnel and about $8 billion sloshing around in the War Department, with another $21 trillion unaccounted for from the day before 9/11/2001, so there should be no problem cutting paychecks.

Adding to the fakery, the Senate passed a $925 billion defense spending bill just a few days ago.

Monday's snap-back gains were led by tech and financial stocks, with a slew of big banks reporting third quarter earnings Tuesday and Wednesday. Among those already reported Tuesday before the bell are Blackrock (BLK), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citi (C), along with non-financials, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Domino's Pizza (CPZ), Albertsons (ACI), and Ericsson (ERIC).

Briefly, Goldman Sachs (GS) had record revenue, but is trading lower by about three percent. JP Morgan (JPM) is lower by about one percent, but Wells Fargo (WFC) is up four percent pre-market. Citi (C) also reported record revenue, though shares are flat. Blackrock (BLK) is down less than one percent.

Meanwhile, bitcoin is getting smoked, down more than $3,000 approaching its weekend low of $110,000. Stock futures are signalling another major selloff as US-China trade tensions took an ugly turn overnight with China sanctioning five US subsidiearies of a South Korean shipbuilding company and hiking docking fees for US vessels at Chinese ports.

Just before 9:00 am ET Dow futures were down 441, NASDAQ futures off 312, and S&P futures down 67 points.

WTI crude oil is down around $57.65, heading lower.

All this because silver hit $52 an ounce yesterday. How sad.

At the Close, Monday, October 13, 2025:
Dow: 46,067.58, +587.98 (+1.29%)
NASDAQ: 22,694.61, +490.18 (2.21%)
S&P 500: 6,654.72, +102.21 (+1.56%)
NYSE Composite: 21,381.79, +284.88 (+1.35%)



WEEKEND WRAP: London Silver Short Squeeze; Stocks Wrecked in Response on China Tariff Talk; Ways to Survive -and Thrive - Through Government Collapse

Sunday, October 12, 2025, 1:15 pm ET

The U.S. government shutdown, which, as of Sunday, is on day 12, is no longer news, because economics has exceeded it in terms of importance.

Americans need to stop beating around the bush and face up to reality.

The U.S. government has failed.

It's no longer a question of whether or not the government is going to fail or when it's going to fail, but rather what are you going to do now that it has failed.

The U.S. federal government is $37.5 trillion in debt. That is a sum of money that will never be repaid in full. The practice of simply "rolling over" expiring obligations with new debt is a privilege that has long been abused. It reveals an unwillingness to make hard decisions for the benefit of the country. Beyond that, congress long ago (1913, roughly) abrogated its authority to regulate currency or money, allowing it to be usurped by the international banking cartel's creation of the Federal Reserve System.

The constitution has been trampled upon by presidents, congress, and judiciary for decades. The country is no longer ruled by laws, but by men and women who do as they please, secure in the knowledge that they will not face consequences for any actions, legal, illegal, or otherwise.

Elections - the important ones, at least - are bought, sold, won, and lost by wealthy people who wield money as power. Even when a person or party wins by popular mandate, they are quickly brought to heel by the powerful special interests in Washington. Nothing ever gets fixed. No bad laws are ever repealed. Few, if any, campaign promises are kept.

The "democracy" that we are told about by the media, that kids are taught about in school, that loud-mouthed, immoral politicians constantly harp about protecting and preserving, does not exist. The federal government, in its functional reality, is a corporation. Senators and members of the House of Representatives are vice presidents or senior managers in charge of the various operations: war, welfare, propaganda, extortion, and control of commerce are their principal interests. The president is a CEO, though the judiciary, principally via the Supreme Court, in its role as a Board of Directors, can effectively overrule executive decisions.

In essence, the U.S. federal government is an oligarchy with patriarcal tendencies. Power is promulgated through generations.

Now that it's understood that the government "of the people, by the people, for the people" is nothing but a false platitude permanently intended to obfuscate the true structure of government, the question Americans need to individually answer is, what am I going to do about it?

Not, what are we going to do about it? There is no "we." There is no assembled opposition. There is not going to be a revolution, or civil war, or any kind of populist movement. The closest Americans have ever come to a united voice for their own liberty in recent years have been the anti-war movement of the 1960s, the "tea party" of the 2010s, and the current MAGA movement, all of which were marginalized by government effort through back-door deals, media slander, and deep state coercion.

Most people are content with doing nothing, going to work, collecting a paycheck from which the government's "cut" is taken out before receipt and hoping for the best. When it turns out that there never will be a "best", that conditions continue to worsen, they're stuck with - if they're lucky - government taking 20-30% of their labor, rent or mortgage another 30-40%, food and energy another 20%, and incidentals the rest, so that by the end of the week, or the month, there's literally nothing left over. Credit cards make up for any shortfall, but that money, at 20-25% or more, has to be repaid. The vast majority of American workers are little more than wage and tax slaves, toiling away on the open-air plantation called America.

For them, there is little recourse, but, that's not a problem since most of them have been so indoctrinated and dumbed-down by the corrosive, compulsory eduction system, they don't know any better.

There may be 10-15% of the population that understands most of this, and maybe that number includes you. So, what are your choices?

Here's the short list:

  1. Leave: A passport costs less than $200, but travel and relocation can be expensive. Beyond the costs, where do you go? Options are limited, since most other countries have problems similar or worse than the U.S.. There are language obstacles, culture shocks, and climate priorities to consider. In the end, it may be easier, less costly, and more practical to stay within the U.S. and move to a state that somewhat has its own house in order.
  2. Make yourself poor: There are considerable benefits to being poor, if you can handle the ins-and-outs of applying for food stamps, rent assistance, energy grants, etc. It's not for everybody, and there's no guarantee that you are approved for various hand-outs or that the government won't just someday cut everybody off (remember, they're broke).
  3. Cheat: Lots of people resort to this. Working off the books, "under the table" so to speak, without reporting income so that you keep everything for yourself. Of course, this approach carries inordinate risks. If you're caught, you may have to pay back taxes, or worse, do some prison time. If you are caught, the government will be watching you forever afterwards. The upside is that you can make a lot of money doing odd jobs, selling stuff, or a variety of other activities, like gig work, without paying Uncle Sugar. There are probably a lot of people who combine #2 (being poor) with #3 (cheating) who do pretty well. While the government may be big and all-seeing, it tends to overlook the small fry.
  4. Play Along: This is what supposedly rational people do. Get a job that pays well, keep expenses down, allocate a portfolio to 40% stocks, 20% fixed income, 30% gold and silver and 10% cash. Not having kids or a wife - or husband - helps. Eschewing many of the niceties of modern life isn't for everybody, but if you can live without the latest iPhone, newer cars, $6 lattes, dining out, plush carpets, and a 72-inch TV and cable plan, you can make this work.
  5. Gamble: With online gambling and individual investment accounts, what could go wrong? Plenty. Most people who take this approach - thinking they can outwit the oddsmakers and/or Wall Street sharks end up in the poor house. (See #2)
  6. Go Off-the-Grid: Finally, there is the option to just give up completely on ever having a reasonable lifestyle, grow a beard, stop bathing, buy some land, solar panels, and a used camper and tough it out in the woods. Grow your own food, hunt, raise goats, sheep, cattle, chickens, etc. Who knows? The government could completely collapse, there could be more war, maybe nuclear, and you'd hardly notice.
  7. Start a Business: Though it's not easy, nor practical, if you plan on running an industrial firm or anything that requires lots of capital, be it in the form of money, labor or material. There's p still plenty of money sloshing around looking for investments, but when it comes to labor or material, inflation is making those more and more expensive. Service businesses are optimal, especially if you have specific skills. Many lawyers, doctors, lumberjacks, carpenters, plumbers, electricians, coders, and other skilled professionals do very well. Tax advantages and expensing of costs are abundant in small business environments. The base requirements for running one's own business boil down to a few simple principles, which include, but are not limited to: not wanting a job, keeping one's own hours, having freedom to do as one pleases, not being tracked every minute of every day, self-discipline, ability to make decisions, being smart and maybe a little cynical, a frugal attitude, persistence, perseverance, and hard work. This, beyond all else, is the ultimate solution. Even if the government is still going to take 21% of your income, that's net, after expenses. Self-employment and entrepreneurship isn't without downsides such as long hours, variable revenue flows, possible government intervention, but how you structure the business is crucial to success.
  8. The Combo Approach: Take what appeals to you from the outlines above, and work out a personal plan or compromise. Being frugal isn't a sin. Your friends may call you a cheapskate, but, while they're paying $2000 a month rent and $600 a month car payment, you own your home outright and drive a used truck that's paid for. Self-awareness and keeping costs down (don't we all wish the government would do this?) are probably the best steps forward anybody can make toward escaping the matrix of a government in chaos and society without guardrails.

It is really up to you.

As a wake-up reminder, Over 1 Billion People Live In Slums.

Proceeding to the regular financial findings...


Stocks

Friday's downdraft on the heels of President Trump's tweeting about big tariffs on China sent a few shockwaves up and down the Wall Street spinal cord, but it wasn't anything that wasn't already under consideration. The U.S. and China are about twenty seconds to midnight in terms of blowing each other's brains out, so spiking the tariff ball isn't exactly earth-shattering.

However, there is the distinct feeling that if the U.S. is cut off from Chinese trade, it's going to hurt. Trump has already announced bailouts for soybean farmers who were damaged by his actions against China, which responded by ceasing to buy U.S. soybeans and other crops, instead sourcing from BRICS partner, Brazil.

Farmers, incidentally, especially those of the mega-corporate variety, are heavily subsidized by the government already. Maybe the government should just get out of the agriculture business and let farmers farm (never happen).

The deeper, more dire implications of the U.S.-China trade war are what happens to critical supply chains and supplies of rare earths, which started all this to begin with. Trump's trade policies, in addition to being inflationary, will result in shortages, empty shelves, and, if America is lucky, a greater depression. Think anybody in Washington, D.C. cares about any of this? Only so far as their stock holdings are concerned, and, given the rough sledding on Friday, it's a safe bet that all the Senators and House members who aren't doing anything - because the government is shut down, remember? - were all safely out of the market prior to President Loudmouth's latest Truth Social post.

Will TACO Trump show up on Monday to tell everybody he was only joking? Very possible. But, Monday and Tuesday are likely to be interesting from a trader's perspective. Following a deep dive on Friday, there are usually more than a fair share of nervous Nellies looking to dump out of stocks. Problem is, they can't go to bonds until Tuesday, because the bond market is closed Monday for Columbus Day.

That means they'll either go to cash or... wait for it... GOLD. The CME is open Monday.

Sectors hit the hardest on Friday were tech stocks and the Dow Transports, which was down nearly double, in percentage terms, than the other majors.

For the Week:
Dow: -1,278.68 (-2.73%)
NASDAQ: -576.08 (-2.53%)
S&P 500: -163.28 (-2.43%)
NYSE Composite: -628.49 (-2.89%)
Dow Transports: -772.74 (-4.88%)

Looking at those weeklies, it is striking how uniform the declines are, almost as if they were somewhat predetermined. That kind of symmetry occurs naturally, but not usually in markets run by humans equipped with computers and high-frequency trading tools.

There are any number of analytical and crystal ball forecasts for what happens next week, but few are calling for a crash. Ed Dowd pointed out on X that stock market crashes do not typically occur right after all time highs, suggesting that they usually come after some back-and-forth in markets with some added pain prior to a major drawdown.

The opposite end of the investment spectrum argues that the current climate is unlike that of 1929 or 1987, that the market is actually a gambling parlor that happens to trade stocks and that algorithms are keyed to headlines along with HFTs, so there's the possibility of a Monday Meltdown.

Not taking sides, early birds may want to keep an eye on NIKKEI futures. From current indications, it looks like a global sell-off of wildly overvalued stocks is dead ahead. Far East markets open around 6:00 pm ET. Stay tuned.

Earnings are going to be in focus in the week ahead. Here are some of the more prominent companies reporting third quarter results:

Monday, October 13: (before open) Fastenal (FAST)

Tuesday, October 14: (before open) Blackrock (BLK), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citi (C), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Domino's Pizza (CPZ), Albertsons (ACI), Ericsson (ERIC); (after close) Equity Bancshares (EQBK)

Wednesday, October 15: (before open) Morgan Stanley (MS), Synchrony Financial (SYF), Citizen's Financial (CFG), First Horizon (FHN), Bank of America (BAC), ASML (ASML), Progressive (PGR), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Abbott Labs (ABT) ; (after close) United Airlines (UAL), Pinnacle Financial (PNFP), Synovus (SNV), J.B. Hunt (JBHT)

Thursday, October 16: (before open) Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Key Bank (KEY), Bank of New York Mellon (BNY), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Travelers (TRV), Marsh McLennan (MMC), Infosys (INFY); (after close) Bank of the Ozarks (OZK), Simmons Bank (SFNC), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), CSX (CSX)

Friday, October 10: (before open) State Street (STT), American Express (AXP), Fifth Third Bank (FITB), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), Truist Financial (TFC), Regions Financial (RF), Comerica (CMA), Ally (ALLY), Schlumberger (SLB).

The Shiller PE (CAPE) closed out the week at 39.09, down from Wednesday's (October 8) 25-year high of 40.32, since the dotcom bubble (Decemebr 1999) 44.14.

BTW: The casino stock market is open Monday, though it is a federal holiday, whether you call it old-school Columbus Day or woke, Indigenous People's Day. Bond markets, however, are closed, according to SIFMA.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date 1 Mo 1.5 mo 2 Mo 3 Mo 4 Mo 6 Mo 1 Yr
09/05/2025 4.29 4.24 4.24 4.07 4.05 3.85 3.65
09/12/2025 4.24 4.24 4.20 4.08 4.02 3.83 3.66
09/19/2025 4.19 4.16 4.14 4.03 3.98 3.81 3.60
09/26/2025 4.22 4.20 4.17 4.02 4.00 3.83 3.67
10/03/2025 4.24 4.17 4.11 4.03 3.96 3.82 3.64
10/10/2025 4.19 4.16 4.10 4.02 3.96 3.81 3.60

Date 2 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 7 Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 30 Yr
09/05/2025 3.51 3.48 3.59 3.80 4.10 4.72 4.78
09/12/2025 3.56 3.52 3.63 3.81 4.06 4.65 4.68
09/19/2025 3.57 3.56 3.68 3.88 4.14 4.71 4.75
09/26/2025 3.63 3.66 3.76 3.96 4.20 4.74 4.77
10/03/2025 3.58 3.59 3.72 3.90 4.13 4.69 4.71
10/10/2025 3.52 3.52 3.65 3.83 4.05 4.60 4.63

Friday's stock market mayhem triggered a rally in treasuries, with major moves in long-dated maturities as the week came to an abrupt, unruly close. Treasuries had been fairly stable and dull until Friday, with the moved coming in yields on 10s, 20s and 30s, which were down 8, 9, and 8 basis points, respectively.

Spreads weakened, with 2s-10s falling to +45 from +53, and full spectrum falling to +43 from +47.

What's important to note is that the yield curve, from 2-year notes out, is normal, but short term bills out to 2-year and 3-year notes are sloping in the wrong direction, i.e., inverted. This should be all one needs to know about the direction of the Fed, which is leaning more and more on the dovish side. If there's major stock market carnage - which may be part of the overall plan - Powell might conjure up some fresh funds via an emergency cut of 50 to 100 basis points. It's not like it hasn't happened before, and it will happen again.

If that occurs, bet your bottom dollar the news media will be howling about the recession, about how the government shutdown caused it, and how the government needs to reopen "RIGHT AWAY!"

The level of grift and propaganda has become so overwhelming, it's actually predictable.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
10/3: +45
10/10: +53

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
10/3: +47
10/10: +43


Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil closed out the week at $57.84, down shrply from last week's Friday price of $60.36.

Money Daily has been calling for lower oil prices for at least the past year, and recently saying outright that the 50s were imminent, the reasons being twofold: slack demand and oversupply. It does not take a genius to figure that out. Markets have been in denial about the health of the global economy. It's breaking apart and breaking down. Lies and hope can't keep stocks, prices, and fake currencies up forever

The lower price for crude oil, running counter-cyclical to inflation, may be indicating something deeper and darker.

European economies in the largest countries - Germany France, Italy, England - are on the brink of economic collapse. Energy prices in those countries have nowhere to go but lower, as people essentially go broke just trying to fund everyday needs. While lower prices for crude oil and petrol may offer some relief, it's on the back of a manufacturing slowdown of depression-era proportions.

Nothing like a massive breakdown in oil prices to get a quick response from retail gas stations. U.S. gas prices slumped lower on Sunday, the national average at $3.05, according to Gasbuddy.com.

State-by-state numbers show California bucking the trend coming in a penny higher than last week, at $4.66 per gallon, followed by Washington, down four cents ($4.47). Oregon ($4.09), was also down three cents. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma ($2.51) hitting a seven-month low, followed by Mississippi, Arkansas, and Texas, all at $2.63, followed down by Louisiana ($2.64). The rest of the southern states are all below $2.83, with Florida also following, down sharply, to $2.89.

Most of the Northeast has yet to experience much in the way of relief, though New Hampshire ($2.96), Delaware ($2.96) and Rhode Island ($2.97) remained lower than the rest. Virginia ($2.95), West Virginia ($2.93), and Kentucky ($2.72) moved lower, joined by Ohio ($2.78) and Indiana ($2.85) and Michigan ($2.90). Illinois ($3.20), down 10 cents, is the only midwest state above $3. All midwest states from Wisconsin (lowest, at $2.70), Minnesota, and North Dakota south to Missouri, Kansas, and Colorado ($2.84) are well below $3/gallon. Wyoming joined the party at $2.94.

Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in 30 states, up four from last week, concentrated in the South and Midwest with Ohio, Michigan, and Florida below the line, along with Wyoming. The entire Southeast, out to New Mexico ($2.79) is under $3.00 a gallon. Gas in next door neighbor New Mexico is $3.44, making border hops appealing to cost-conscious drivers, though the gap continues to narrow.


Bitcoin

This week: $112,895.70
Last week: $122,985.87
2 weeks ago: $109,980.20
6 months ago: $85,434.14
One year ago: $62,717.15
Five years ago: $13,798.80

Bitcoin got clubbed along with the stock market, hitting a low of $110,020 early Sunday. So much for it being a store of value, one of the many indicators for being actual money that it does not share with gold and silver, both of which were higher during the week and did not suffer a drawdown with stocks on Friday.

Year-to-date, bitcoin is up 21%, surpassed by gold (+51%), silver (+61%), and even eBay (+28%).


Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 80.35; last week: 81.55 Silver/Gold %: 1.25%; last week: 1.23%

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 9/12: $3,680.70
Gold price 9/19: $3,719.40
Gold price 9/26: $3,789.80
Gold price 10/3: $3,912.10
Gold price 10/10: $4,035.50

Silver price 9/12: $42.68
Silver price 9/19: $43.37
Silver price 9/26: $46.37
Silver price 10/3: $47.97
Silver price 10/10: $47.51

SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 10/10: $4,015.59
Silver 10/10: $50.01

(Kitko)
Gold 10/10: Bid: 4,016.40; Ask: $4,018.40
Silver 10/10: Bid: $49.89; Ask: $50.01

The week saw silver make an historic rise above $50 at spot, reaching an all-time high, albeit for only moments, on Thursday morning before the riggers stepped in and brought it back down. Spot prices were dragged lower, but recovered, wiht the ask at 50.01 at the close on Friday. Silver was in backwardation at the COMEX, with future prices below spot through the week, but the chain itself was magically recified on Friday, as the current December contract is quoted laughably $47.51, and the further out contracts now higher, reaching as high as $49.87 a year out.

Anybody not buying these contracts is completely clueless. Spot prices are going well beyond $50 and, even if there's considation around this level, are likely to exceed $60 by April of 2026. The word got around that London's supply shortage was at a crisis level (almost empty), and silver was rushed via air from the United States. The destruction of London Loco, the LBMA, and the COMEX cannot happen soon enough. There's more than enough news about the long-overdue silver squeeze to fill a week's worht of posts. A few suggestions to get the low-down on what's happened and might soon happen are available from experts on the topic on youtube:

Live From the Vault with Andrew Maguire and Alisdair Macleod

Liberty and Finance: At $50, silver is just getting started.

Make sure to search on youtube for Michael Oliver, David Morgan and Craig Hemke. They have amazing insights.

At the end of this post, is a video by Chris Marcus of Arcadia Economics discussing the London Silver Short Squeeze.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price Low High Average Median
1 oz silver coin: 52.00 58.00 54.28 53.48
1 oz silver bar: 52.95 59.99 55.58 55.77
1 oz gold coin: 4,087.98 4,333.80 4,214.08 4,195.51
1 oz gold bar: 4,159.15 4,296.15 4,210.42 4,205.32

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) made another new record high since Money Daily began recording in 2020, of $54.78, a healthy gain of $1.40 from the October 3 price of $53.38 per troy ounce.

For newbies, buying silver at $50 an ounce or slightly higher might be worthwhile and only available briefly. Online retailers have prices well above spot, which is unlikely to fall much unless there's a major global recession. Even then, your dollars, yen, euros, or pounds are likely to be worthless. Your silver, otherwise, will have real value.


WEEKEND WRAP

On Thursday, October 9, all hell broke loose when silver broke through $50 on the spot market and threatened $50 on the COMEX. Friday's stock market selloff was the response. The reason silver over $50 is an existential threat to the global cabal of central banks, Western governments, and fiat currencies dates back to 1873, when the U.S. passed the Coinage Act of 1873, de-monetizing silver (Crime of ’73), and, later, in 1964, when silver was taken out of the general currency.

Silver is the stake which strikes through the heart of the banking vampires, who have stolen wealth from the rest of the world for centuries.

If, shortly after 6:00 pm ET Sunday, when markets open in Japan and elsewhere in the East, the carnage spreads and contagion is the result, the global reset will have begun in earnest. While it may not be apparent at first opportunity, nothing other than gold, silver and some real estate will be safe. With Western economies crumbling to ashes, their fiat currencies with them, a global depression cannot be discounted enough.

For those who feel compelled, rewatching "The Big Short" and/or "Margin Call" while drinking heavily may provide at least some, however temporary, relief.

At the Close, Friday, October 10, 2025:
Dow: 45,479.60, -878.82 (-1.90%)
NASDAQ: 22,204.43, -820.19 (-3.56%)
S&P 500: 6,552.51, -182.60 (-2.71%)
NYSE Composite: 21,096.92, -451.35 (-2.
09%) Dow Transports: 15,067.87, -516.50 (-3.31%)

For the Week:
Dow: -1,278.68 (-2.73%)
NASDAQ: -576.08 (-2.53%)
S&P 500: -163.28 (-2.43%)
NYSE Composite: -628.49 (-2.89%)
Dow Transports: -772.74 (-4.88%)

Chris Marcus of Arcadia Economics discusses the London Silver Short Squeeze:

In case the video does not appear, here's the youtube link.



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idleguy.com November 2025
IdleGuy.com November 2025, Vol. 2 #11