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Weekly Survey of Gold and Silver Prices
Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark
Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.
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Stocks Continue Grinding Higher; Gold, Silver Soaring; C'est La Vie Friday, October 18, 2024, 9:26 am ET It's probably safe to say that heading into the last trading day of the week, the major indices are going to finish higher for a sixth straight week. As of Thursday's closing bell, the Dow stood at 43,239.05, a record closing high, up 375 points for the week. The S&P, though falling short of another record close on Thursday, is still up 26 points, while the NASDAQ, which made up considerable ground on Thursday after Tuesday's broad selloff, is up just 30 points on the week, but futures are pointing to a strong open for the tech-rich index. That the major indices will rise for six straight weeks is nothing out of the ordinary for this particular iteration of bubble economics. Recall that at the start of this rally, nearly a year ago, the NASDAQ, Dow, and S&P indices were each up nine straight weeks and 14 of 15 from late October to the end of January. Now, with vital elections less than three weeks ahead, stocks seem to be set on a path of prosperity for all. Never mind that stocks were likely overvalued six months ago, a year ago, two years ago and even before then, there's a sinister element at work keeping the indices up to record levels no matter what. Call it election anticipation or just plain old meddling with big numbers, it's something of a marvel to stand aside what has to be one of the more incredible bull runs of all time, and there have been some downright zingers since the turn of the century. Whether or not one goes along with the conspiracy theorists who say stocks are being levitated to increase Kamala Harris' chances or that the market is anticipating a Trump victory, there's no hiding the fact that Wall Street, as unhinged as it usually is from reality, is especially giddy at this point in time. The exorbitant enthusiasm of stock traders comes down to a number of factors, least among them the promise that the Fed will continue to lower interest rates, even if inflation is still a problem (it is). Companies will continue borrowing to buy back stock, and lower interest rates makes that calculation all the more favorable. Borrow at an annual rate of four percent and hope your company's stock goes up eight. Simple math results in big bonuses for executives, dividends and appreciation for investors. It's a big, happy family. After a while, it just becomes clownish. Stocks are trading at premium levels with PE ratios in the clouds and nobody cares. They just keep buying. The Shiller PE, which is as reliable a yardstick as any for measuring irrational exuberance, is now at its thrid highest peak in history, 37.20, closing in on the October, 2021 high of 38.58, but still of the extreme top of 44.19 at the height of the dotcom bubble in November 1999. Laws of gravity are not being applied presently, but likely will be at some indeterminate date. But, maybe the market will just continue to go higher and higher, stocks become pricier and pricier. Maybe something bad won't happen this time, which would be a first in both stock market and world history. Until then c'est la vie! BTW: real money, gold and silver, are soaring, with gold hitting a new record high at $2,731.70 and silver threatening recent highs ($32.54) this morning on the COMEX. Robbie Nevil (2009):
At the Close, Thursday, October 17, 2024:
Thursday, October 17, 2024, 9:20 am ET After Wednesday's close, Alcoa (AA), Discover Financial Services (DFS), CSX (CXS), Kinder Morgan (KMI) all reported third quarter results. Thursday, before the opening bell, Travelers (TRV), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Truist Financial (TFC), and Blackstone Group (BX) released their third quarter figures. As expected, the big one was Taiwan Semi, reporting a 54% year-over-year rise in third-quarter net income of 325.3 billion New Taiwan dollars ($10.12 billion). TSMC also reported a 39% jump in revenue to NT$759.69 billion ($23.64 billion) and 57.8% gross margin, beating analysts' estimates and its own guidance for both. These results sent shares of the company up more than nine percent, and benefitted almost all tech stocks, but especially those involved in producing semiconductors, like Nvidia (NVDA). Discover Financial (DFS) remains in merger talks with CapitalOne (COF). The credit card purveyor reported net income of $965 and diluted earnings per share of $3.69, ahead of estimates ($3.42). Shares are lower, however, due to ongoing concerns about how the company misclassified charges and how that will affect back-dated earnings. Alcoa (AA) is trading two percent to the upside on solid earnings, helped by higher raw material prices. Kinder Morgan (KMI) fell short on EPS, though with higher revenue and announced a share offering. The stock is trending lower by nearly two percent. Rail freight company, CSX reported higher revenue and profits with growth in freight volume, but investors aren't buying it, as shares are selling off by four percent in the pre-market. Insurance giant Travelers (TRV), a Dow component, blew away estimates, reporting net income of $1.26 billion, $5.42 per diluted share. Shares are soaring, up nearly five percent. Truist (TFC) reported net income of $1.3 billion, or $0.99 per diluted share, topping estimates, but the stock is down in pre-market trading. Finally, Blackstone Group (BX) reported $1.108 trillion AUM, sending shares higher by more than one percent. As earnings have been coming in very much on the positive side this week, stocks are naturally trending higher. A half-hour before the opening bell, NASDAQ futures are up 176 points, Dow futures up 63, and S&P futures ahead by 26 points. The Dow made a fresh all-time closing high on Wednesday, the S&P is close to another record and the NASDAQ is less than 300 points of an all-time high. Even with these strong business results, Kamala Harris can't help tripping over her own tongue, as she was savaged by Bret Baier in a FOX interview Wednesday night. She is on the verge of losing in what may become one of the biggest landslide victories in the history of U.S. presidential elections, rivaling Ronald Reagan's near-sweep of the electoral college in 1984, as Donald Trump continues to move higher in the polls. The market is beginning to price in a Trump victory in less than three weeks, ushering in an era of tariffs which will lead to a more competitive landscape for American businesses, lower inflation, reduced crime, deportation of millions of illegal immigrants, and general prosperity. What's not to like? The Harris-Walz ticket does not compare well with Trump's record from his first term. A Trump win might kick off a strong year-end rally.
At the Close, Wednesday, October 16, 2024:
Wednesday, October 16, 2024, 9:27 am ET Reporting Wednesday morning are Morgan Stanley (MS), Synchrony Financial (SYF), US Bancorp (USB), Citizens Financial Group (CFG), Abbott Labs (ABT). Here's a quick rundown of how they did in the third quarter. Morgan Stanley (MS) was another of the big banks that fared well during the quarter, with investment banking making a huge difference to the bottom line for them and Goldman Sachs, which reported on Tuesday. Morgan Stanley stock is up nearly four percent in pre-market trading after whipping estimates like a rented mule with a 32% profit gain to $3.19 billion, EPS of 1.88. Synchrony Financial (SYF), one of a handful of subprime lenders, also boosted profits in the quarter, earning $768 million, for an EPS of $1.94. Bully! Shares are more than three percent up prior to the opening bell. US Bancorp (USB) took in a bundle via net interest income, topping estimates and sending shares nearly three percent higher in pre-market activity. America is borrowing its way to a new renaissance. Citizens Financial Group (CFG), one of the worst regional banks in America, per customer service reports, managed to make $382 million in the quarter, but fell short of estimates by two cents, with EPS of 77 cents. Shares are being sold pre-market, down about two percent. Boo-hoo! Lastly, Abbott Labs (ABT) reported third-quarter earnings of $1.65 billion. On a per-share basis, the company earned 94 cents. Earnings, adjusted for non-recurring costs, came to $1.21 per share. The results topped Wall Street expectations by a penny. The multi-faceted drug and baby formula company posted revenue of $10.64 billion. That's a lot of mother's milk for investors who feast on a dividend of 55 cents per share. Stock futures are mixed, gold is at a record high, near $2700/ounce, silver above $32/ounce, while WTI crude is back above $70/bbl. nearing the open.
At the Close, Tuesday, October 15, 2024:
Tuesday, October 15, 2024, 9:10 am ET With three weeks until election day - and early voting already underway in most states - Wall Street appears to be getting more comfortable with an inevitable win for Donald Trump. The Harris-Walz campaign has become so completely inept that it might be better for them to stop trying to appear viable. Every time Kamala Harris opens her mouth in public, her chances of winning the election are reduced. Down-ballot campaigns are trying to distance themselves from her and the Biden regime, hoping to salvage a modicum of respect and maybe keep the House and Senate from going full red. A common theme has emerged from Trump supporters that his lead is already so big that the only way Harris can win is through cheating, as Biden did in 2020. The Democrats' failed campaign strategy can be condensed into three words, "Orange Man Bad", a message not resonating with even hard-core supporters. The media continues to hold onto the myth that the election is close, or even tied, especially in battleground states, though oversampling of women and Democrats have skewed the polls to the point of absurdity. Gradually, the mainstream media's message is beginning to morph into desperation, with all the attendant messaging of Trump being a danger to the constitution, democracy, world peace, the economy, and anything else they can cook up, falling now on deaf ears. Should one take the position that Trump will win and the economy will boom, as it did in his first term? That seems to be the current thinking. Stocks have been on a tear, the major indices up five straight weeks and looking to extend gains that have the S&P and Dow breaking to new highs almost daily. The NASDAQ has also been rapidly rising, up more than 1,800 points (10.86%) since September 6. There are millions of Americans hoping, praying, and actively campaigning for a Trump victory, with eyes on an end to the gaslighting, false promises, transexual agenda, inflation, and illegal border crossings paramount. In a nutshell, Americans are worn out from nearly four years of Biden-Harris and desire a return to living life as it was prior to the pandemic, the stolen election, endless war-mongering, and boneheaded policies of the Democrats. There's not much to add to that agenda other than a Trump win on November 5 without much drama from the losing side. Whether the House and Senate remain stalemated or flip over to complete Republican majorities is probably where the parties are now focusing their efforts Wall Street pros seem to have sniffed out the probabilities.
At the Close, Monday, October 14, 2024:
Sunday, October 13, 2024, 11:57 am ET If you're already tired of the gaslighting and deluge of political messaging, Money Daily promises not to mention the elections or politics other than this friendly reminder that Election Day, November 5, is just more than three weeks away. Another reminder is that Monday, October 14, is a federal holiday. Stock markets will be open; bond markets closed. There's no mail delivery. Banks will be closed, while state and local offices will be either open or closed, varied by state. The July, August and September CPI readings mean that Social Security recipients can expect a 2.5% cost of living adjustment in their payments starting in 2025.
Earnings season kicked off for companies reporting third quarter results with big banks and financial intermediaries on display Friday morning. JP Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of New York Mellon (BK), and BlackRock (BLK) all reported solid results. Financials will continue on parade in the coming week as Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Charles Schwab (SCWH), PNC (PNC), Goldman Sachs (GS) and State Street Bank (STT) report prior to the opening bell on Tuesday. Here's the rest of the earnings lineup for the week ahead: Tuesday, before the bell, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), United Health Group (UNH); after close, United Airlines (UAL), JB Hunt (JBHT), Interactive Brokers (IBKR). Wednesday, before open, Morgan Stanley (MS), Synchrony Financial (SYF), US Bancorp (USB), Citizens Financial Group (CFG), Abbott Labs (ABT); after close, Alcoa (AA), Equifax (EFX), Discover Financial Services (DFS), CSX (CXS), Kinder Morgan (KMI). Thursday, before open, Travelers (TRV), Huntington Bank (HBAN), Taiwan Semiconductor ((TSM), Infosys (INFY), Truist Financial (TFC), Blackstone Group (BX); after close, Netflix (NFLX), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), WD-40 (WDFC). Friday, before open, Regions Financial (RF), American Express (AXP), Comerica (CMA), Ally (ALLY), Proctor Gamble (PG). As far as data is concerned, last week saw September CPI and PPI, which were both a little worrying for inflation hawks, but not enough to forestall future rate cuts from the Fed. This week will be highlighted by September Retail Sales, Philly Fed, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, NAHB Housing Market Index, EIA energy reports, and weekly unemployment claims all jammed into Thursday. All the major indices sported gains, with the Dow, S&P, and NYSE Composite marking new record highs. The Dow Transports were the biggest winners, up 2.68%, making up for losses from the prior week. The majors were all up between 0.88% (NYSE Comp.) and 1.21% (Dow). Other than the Dow Transports, the major indices were up for their fifth straight week.
Yields at the long end were higher on the week, though marginally so, except for the longest-dated, with 10s up 10 basis points, 20s up 11 and the 30-year bond yield jumping 13 basis points to 4.39%, the highest since the end of July. Yields on bills were squished slightly lower, reflecting upcoming rate cuts. The yield curve is gradually flattening, with full spectrum spreading at -58 basis points, the tightest since late October of last year, which also marked the end of the summer-fall fade in stocks and the start of the current stock market rally. 2s-10s were tame and remained dis-inverted, at +13 basis points. It's not difficult to see where the Fed, rates, and the yield curve are headed. Within a few months, likely before February, 2025, the curve will look more like Calista Flockhart than Scarlett Johansson, basically flat-lining. Figuring two more cuts this year, one-month bills will be yielding around 4.35%, the 30-year maybe 4.50%. There will be little room for arbitrage between rates, making bankers have to work harder for profits (which is probably a good thing). That leveling off would normally signal a recession or tightening of credit, but the opposite is the most likely case looking ahead. Wall Street hates uncertainty, and the current structure of the FOMC has telegraphed their future with the accuracy of the former Western Union. There remains concern over rising credit card defaults and high interest rates on those, but nobody is throwing a fit over Americans paying 25% interest or people losing the right to borrow more money to buy things they don't need or even those they do. Spreads:
2s-10s
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
WTI crude leveled off as tensions in the Middle East eased. $74.71 was the closing price Friday in New York, slightly raised from last week's $74.45 for WTI crude oil. Gasbuddy.com reports the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.18 a gallon, four cents higher than last week. California's continues to have the most expensive fuel, at $4.64 a gallon. In Pennsylvania, prices were up five cents, at $3.38, with the Keystone State remaining the price leader in the Northeast, albeit near the lowest level in 18 months. New York was up slightly, at $3.21. Connecticut ($3.08) and Massachusetts ($3.06) were both modestly higher, with Maryland stable at $3.23 per gallon. Prices in the Midwest continue to waver, with Illinois - just above $4.00 two months ago - up six cents this week, to $3.47 on Sunday. Mississippi was supplanted as the lowest in the nation by Georgia ($2.67), as prices rose 10 cents, to $2.72, followed by Texas and Oklahoma ($2.74). Arkansas is $2.78, with Alabama at $2.73 and Tennessee at $2.74. Kansas is at $2.84, Missouri checks in at $2.86; South Carolina ($2.87). Florida ($3.08) remains the outlier in the South. Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in 17 U.S. states, mostly in the Southeast and Midwest, but now including New Jersey for the past three weeks. Arizona, at $3.34, remained below $4.00 for a 23rd straight week, leaving only California and Washington ($4.05) just barely above the $4.00 level. Oregon is at $3.65 and Nevada at $3.84. Utah ($3.43) and Idaho ($3.40) remain well off summer highs and were lower for the week.
This week: $62,688.54 Bitcoin bobbed and weaved this week, dropping to a low just under $59,000 on Thursday before rising magically to above $62,000 on Friday to end the week looking solid though the price is still well below the all-time high just above $73,000 (March, 2024), now a fading memory in the global Ponzi.
Gold:Silver Ratio: 84.25; last week: 82.40 Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 9/13: $2,606.20
Silver price 9/13: $31.07 Thus far, election season has been reasonable for precious metals, with prices for gold remaining near all-time highs and silver continuing to maintain above $30/ounce for over a month, something that hasn't happened since February, 2013. The gold:silver ratio continues to range around 84, which, while well above traditional measures, seems to be a sweet spot for both metals. Silver is still preferred in smaller denominations, its potential for use in everyday transactions obvious. Gold will always remain the standard for generational wealth. Nothing on earth is going to change that. Especially now, with central banks buying hand over fist, gold holds value better than any other financial asset and comes with the added bonus of having no counter-party risk, same for silver. Fiat currencies will continue to be debased at an accelerated rate until they are extinguished, replaced with money that is more permanent and real. Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) was lower this week, at $39.28, a decline of 87 cents from the October 6 price of $40.15 per troy ounce. This is the first reading below $40.00 in a month. Premiums on silver and gold continue to reflect sufficient demand amid higher prices in international markets. The most in-demand gold coins are American Gold Eagles (AGE) and American Buffaloes with prices for either well above $2,800. WEEKEND WRAP That's it for now. Markets are oddly complacent.
At the Close, Friday, October 11, 2024:
For the Week:
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