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Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.
PRIOR COVERAGE:
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Friday, October 25, 2024, 9:25 am ET With the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia already concluded and the World Bank and IMF annual meetings in Washington D.C. ending on Saturday, U.S. markets have digested the the enormity of the events and deluge of reports, news items and innuendo without any signs of panic or undue exuberance. The markets also waded through a swath of third quarter earnings reports, the latest from a few fairly inconsequential companies, though the fourth consecutive quarterly loss by troubled New York Community Bank (NYCB) should raise a few eyebrows and blood pressures. NYCB reported earnings well below expectations, posting a net loss available to common shareholders of $289 million, or -79 cents per share, compared with a profit of $199 million, or 81 cents per share, a year ago. On an adjusted basis, per share loss of 69 cents in the third quarter, was bigger than analysts' estimates of 40 cents, according to data compiled by LSEG. The bank also revised its forecast from becoming profitable in 2025, pushing that expectation back a year, to 2026. NYCB was aiming to break even or make a profit of 5 cents per share in 2025, but now plans to report a per share loss of 30 cents to 35 cents, sending its shares down 10% prior to the opening bell. In 2026, NYCB expects to show a profit of 75 to 80 cents per share, compared with its previous forecast of $1.25 to $1.30. The other main focus was on earnings by consumer giant Colgate-Palmolive (CL), which reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of 91 cents, beating the street view of 89 cents on gross revenue of just more than $5 billion, also ahead of estimates. Stock players are hoping to end the week on a positive note, with futures up across the board heading toward the bell. As usual, gold and silver were smacked down overnight, though both metals remain near recent highs and are expected to continue to appreciate in price. For the week, stocks have not fared well, with the Dow leading the losses, down 901 thus far. Through Thursday's close the S&P had shed 54 points, while NASDAQ was off 74 points. A strong finish to the week would ensure a seventh consecutive weekly gain for the NASDAQ and S&P at least, the longest such streak since the start of the rally in late October, 2023. Thirteen nations were announced as partner countries within the BRICS alliance: Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam. Partner countries are allowed representation at select BRICS events and participation in some of the bloc's international initiatives. Full membership in the alliance grants voting rights on BRICS affairs and full rights to participate in all BRICS events. The following nations are already full members of the BRICS bloc: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Egypt, and Ethiopia. Saudi Arabia, while represented at the summit, was not adopted as a member or a partner. The Kingdom was extended an invitation at the conclusion of last year's summit in South Africa but declined to accept. Argentina was also extended an invitation to become a full member, but also passed on the offer and is not expected to join as either a partner of full member any time soon, having opted to embrace the U.S. dollar as its primary reserve currency as it attempts to restructure its government and finances. The 16th Annual BRICS Summit released the "Kazan Dclaration", the official communique, on October 23rd. While it is long on content (33 pages, 134 declarations), it is woefully short on specifics. The main thrust of the document is contained in its title, STRENGTHENING MULTILATERALISM FOR JUST GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AND SECURITY [PDF]. The document meanders through offering support for United Nations programs as outlines for a more equitable structure to world politics and economies, to climate change, fostering investments in the "Global South", establishing a multi-polar financial framework, to expressing concerns over instability in Ukraine, the Middle East, and North Africa, though no specific actions are noted on any policies. Just as last year's summit in South Africa did not produce concrete plans for a unified BRICS currency, this year, the Russian summit focused largely on peace, mutual respect, use of national currencies in trade, bypassing the U.S. dollar, and condemnation of sanctions against BRICS members and associates. The IMF and World Bank will conclude annual meetings in Washington D.C. on Saturday, October 26. Thus far, the meetings have produced economic forecasts which predict the world economy expanding at a rate of 3.2%. Various publications such as the World Economic Outlook, Global Financial Stability Report and the Fiscal Monitor, ironically titled, "Putting a Lid on Public Debt". These and other reports and events are available at the IMF website. Money Daily will have more information and analysis on the meetings in the WEEKEND WRAP on Sunday, October 27 and in the November issue of idleguy.com, which is expected to post partially to the internet on October 31 and in completed form on November 1.
At the Close, Thursday, October 24, 2024:
Thursday, October 24, 2024, 9:10 am ET Politicians lie all the time, especially, it seems, American politicians, and Americans have gotten used to being lied to by their politicians. It's just part of the game, like holding in football or cross-checking in hockey. But, while lying may be par for the course and somewhat acceptable, getting caught lying involves penalties, similar to 10 yards for being caught holding in football or two minutes in the penalty box for cross-checking in hockey. The penalty in politics happens to be a bit more severe. In the political arena the penalty for getting caught in a lie - even one that appears to be insignificant - is death. Political death. Both nominees (if we can even call them that; they're more "appointees" than anything else) for the offices of president and vice president on the Democrat ticket have been caught telling lies: Tim "no balz" Walz for lying about being in Hong Kong during the Tiananmen Square uprising, and Kamala "deep throat" Harris for lying about working at McDonald's during college. It wouldn't be even close to being funny if the entire 2024 presidential election turned on a couple of innocuous lies, but that may very well be the case that's developing. Walz tried to finesse his way out of his Tiananmen Square story during the recent VP debate, surprisingly asked by one of the CBS moderators, Margaret Brennan. Having no finesse to speak of - he's a teacher, after all - Walz stumbled through a response short on substance and long on cringe, ultimately backtracking to the indefensible, "caught up in the rhetoric" and "I'm a knucklehead." Evidence is clear that in May, 1989, the time of the Tiananman Square uprising and consequent massacre, Tim Walz was in Nebraska, not Hong Kong. Case closed. Tim Walz lied about it and got caught. Political hanging from the gallows or being shot by a firing squad are the options awaiting him. Kamala Harris lying about working at McDonald's one summer, following her freshman year at Howard University cuts even deeper because it's an attempt to make voters feel she's "one of us," having an experience shared by many, of working at an entry-level job as a youth. It was the summer of 1983 that Harris said she worked at McDonald's in Alameda, California, though nobody has any recollection of seeing her there or working with her, not even the long-time manager of one of the franchises. McDonald's corporate office issued a statement addressing the issue, though ultimately taking the easy way out: "We and our franchisees don't have records for all positions dating back to the early 80s," it said in an internal memo circulated to staff, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. For its part, the Harris campaign appears to be side-stepping the issue, choosing not to talk about it at stops upon the road to the White House. Kamala Harris herself didn't mention the summer job at McDonald's on her resume when applying for a job as a law clerk in the Alameda County district attorney's office in 1987 and did not refer to the job in either of her memoirs, published in 2010 and 2019. Thus, while there's no concrete proof that she worked at McDonald's or not, the facts appear to be pointing to the story being made up, an effort to pander support from voters. The evidence, or lack thereof, is fairly damning. Kamala can't provide a pay stub, a W-s form, an income tax record or even a purloined McDonald's hat or name tag or anything that would prove her employment. Some have suggested that the Social Security Administration would have a record of her employment, and that is certainly true if she and the manager filed all the requisite paperwork. It's probably worse if they hadn't, if she was working "under the table," which some folks claim to be her expertise. In the end, most Americans with some semblance of morality won't take lightly to being lied to by a presidential candidate, whether it's about working a summer job or intractions with world leaders. A lie is a lie, after all, and one of the determinants in choosing a president eventually cones down to trust. It doesn't appear that the American public can trust Kamala Harris or Tim Walz. Like the French fries coming out hot from the deep fryer, stick a fork in them. They're done. Editor's Note: True story. When I was publishing the newspaper, Downtown Magazine, in Rochester, New York, coincidentally right around the same time Kamala claims to have been slinging burgers at McDonald's, a fellow approached me about becoming a partner. He had printing and publishing experience, was about my age, had entrepreneurial spirit and motivation, a good sense of humor and solid business sense. I was considering forming a partnership with him and we engaged in a trial period where he helped produce a few issues of the newspaper. It was a very part-time, unpaid, informal arrangement. At some point, he produced for me the advertising client list for the company he was planning on leaving. It was a sheaf of pages that I glanced over but eventually paid little attention to. As it turns out, his offering of a stolen client list nixed the partnership deal completely for me. I figured that if he would steal from them, he'd eventually steal from me. Never liked liars or thieves. Still don't. This fellow went on to other things, including managing local Democrat campaigns, fund-raising, and writing. In my opinion he was kind of a dirt-bag, but I still think in most respects, he was an guy, but, I figure I dodged a bullet. -FR Looking at pre-market activity, Tesla (TSLA) appears to be leading the NASDAQ futures after releasing strong third quarter results after the Wednesday close. Also reporting after the closing bell Wednesday, IBM is dragging down Dow futures. The company missed on revenues while EPS of $2.30 was seven cents higher than consensus estimates. Common shares, which had been up 44% year-to-date, are under pressure, down three to four percent in pre-market trading. In what comes as no surprise, both American Airlines (AAL) and Southwest (LUV) reported sketchy results which fell short of expectations. Southwest is facing a proxy fight, while American showed a GAAP loss of $0.23 per share that was 275% below analysts' consensus estimates. American Airlines is trading near multi-decade lows around $12 a share. Honeywell topped revenue and profit estimates, but is being sold off by two percent prior to the opening bell. Gold, silver and crude oil are all sporting gains prior to the open. After Wednesday's downdraft, the major indices are down around one percent for the week, with the Dow the worst off and the NASDAQ the least affected. The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims down last week from 242,000 to 227,000 while continuing claims at 1.897 million are at their highest level in three years. Economic uncertainty reigns supreme with Election Day just 12 days away.
At the Close, Wednesday, October 23, 2024:
Wednesday, October 23, 2024, 9:35 am ET While the World Bank and IMF, holdovers from the Bretton Woods era, hold annual meetings in Washington, D.C., the 16th annual BRICS Summit is taking place in Kazan, Russia, and, from the looks of things, the BRICS are making more important decisions about the future of the world than the stuffed shirts at the World Bank confab. To get a taste of what's happening at Kazan, one need only to scan the headlines - largely censored or downplayed by Western media - on RT (Russia Times - banned in the EU) and other free speech-enabled platforms, like Elon Musk's X. A good place to start getting information out of the BRICS Summit is at RT, which is publishing timely updates. Downtown Magazine's brother site, idleguy.com target="_blank" is also being updated, though getting news from reliable sources and our own reporting per the pace out of Russia continues to be a challenge. As the Summit will conclude on Thursday, there will likely be a memorandum issued, outlining major developments. Money Daily and IdleGuy.com will provide links and/or text of the BRICS' statement as soon as it becomes available. Opening Tuesday with the arrival of around 20,000 delegates from over 30 countries, including heads of state from the nine BRICS+ countries - Russia, India, China, South Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates (Brazilian President Lula da Silva had planned to make the trip but suffered a serious injury from a fall and is unable to travel) - plus Vietnam (PM Pham Minh Chinh), Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Malaysia, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Bolivian President Luis Arce, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, and many others. Here are some suggestions from Russian President Vladimir Putin on the opening day of the Summit: Putin has proposed forming a BRICS alliance on artificial intelligence that would be charged with monitoring the development of the technology and the ethics of how it is used. Putin has proposed setting up a BRICS-based grain exchange. Moscow has also put forward the idea of creating a separate BRICS platform for trade in diamonds and precious metals. Putin has also proposed a BRICS investment platform To wit:
"The global economy is going through drastic changes, with the center of business activity shifting towards the developing emerging markets," Vladimir Putin said at the extended session of the BRICS Summit. Meanwhile, in Washington, D.C., headlines from the World Bank/IMF annual meetings look somewhat less dynamic: The World Bank Somehow Lost Track of at Least $24 Billion - Bloomberg World Bank to loan Argentina over $2 billion for social support - Reuters Global markets may be underestimating geopolitical risks, IMF says - AP Yellen says US to unveil new sanctions on Russian - Reuters China's stimulus measures not enough, Yellen and IMF chief economist say - Reuters See the difference? Not to be overlooked, along with Turkey, an EU nation that has expressed interest in joining BRICS, Serbia, which has had EU membership held up since 2009, now believes that BRICS membership may offer a better future. The geopolitical bloc's popularity has been growing in Serbia, according to the President Aleksandar Vucic. The BRICS, being somewhat more open to honest discussion about culture, economy, trade and mutual respect than, say, the U.S. or European Union, seems to be headed in a direction that most people would favor, preferring discussion and diplomacy over hegemony and military intervention. The leaders in Washington, Ottawa, Paris, London, and Berlin, Biden (or whomever?), Trudeau, Macron, Starmer, and Stolz, seem to be less interested in cooperating with the major producers of the world and more interested in shutting themselves and their citizens off from good deals on food, energy and consumer products. As a group, they are outclassed by the leaders of so-called "emerging" countries assembling at the BRICS conference. For years, the Western leaders have scoffed at their own citizens, led useless, wasteful, and tragic wars, and promoted ideologies that rational people find objectionable. Any guesses why they fear a Trump presidency? When and if it comes down to it, Trump would probably favor joining the BRICS. It might be the most monumental decision ever in terms of world politics and there's actually - given Trump's pragmatic approach - could happen. Updating the markets, earnings reports from Dow components 3M (MMM) and Verizon on Tuesday, and Wednesday morning, Boeing (BA), Coca-Cola (KO), and AT&T (T), first sent the Dow down 200 points before the usual market jackers (PPT, NY Fed, Goldman Sachs, etc.) got involved, sending the major indices into the green for most of Tuesday. With new third quarter reports fresh on their minds, the people who for some reason believe they have to keep stocks levitating until the election, are having a hard time convincing themselves. Futures are down across the board again after Boeing (BA) posted a $6 billion loss for the quarter, while AT&T (T) missed on revenue but beat analyst projections by three cents, posting EPS of 60 cents. Unfortunately for investors, AT&T's third quarter 2023 EPS was 64 cents. Why investors keep plowing money into stocks that are exhibiting negative returns from year-ago results is a complete mystery to old-timers and anybody who understands economics generally. AT&T is up two percent in pre-market. On the othe hand, who cares? It's a $22 stock that just made a three-year high. Maybe it's the $1.11 dividend returning a robust 5.12% yield, though a drop of just one dollar in the share price kind of makes that a moot point. Coca-Cola (KO) delivered a solid quarter along the lines of a headline nobody really wants to see: Coca-Cola posts better-than-expected Q3 report, driven by higher prices. Shares of the world's most popular soft drink company are down two percent pre-market. Elsewhere, Bitcoin (66,366.74, -1.52%, -1,023.32) is off recent highs, COMEX gold hit a new high earlier this morning ($2772.20) before being curb-stomped by the usual suspects, the same for silver which notched a high of $35.05 and is up a whopping 44 percent year-to-date, even with today's attempt at slamming it lower. Oil remains rangebound, with WTI criss-crossing $70/barrel. Thus, today's themes are BRICS kicking IMF/World Bank in the nuts, and if your investment advisor failed to allocate at least 10% of your portfolio to gold and/or silver this year, he/she/they should be fired. If said advisor has you in bitcoin or other, more esoteric crypto products, firing is mandatory, shooting, optional. (BTW: somebody at Google apparently read yesterday's screed and adjusted their algorithm, delivering the second best revenue day of the month. Still, KMA, Google.)
At the Close, Tuesday, October 22, 2024:
Tuesday, October 22, 2024, 9:15 am ET The following was posted to a message board at WebMasterWorld this morning. Just a few observations: Here it is the 22nd of the month and there are 25 posts from less than 10 different users. Years ago, this forum would have 25 posts in a few days or even one day. Being Captain Obvious here, many people have given up on Adsense as a source of revenue, self included. I complained to Google that on days in which my traffic was good (more impressions), my RPM would drop, so it didn't make much difference in terms of revenue whether I had 10,000 impressions or 3,000. They made sure my revenue would amount to peanuts. Nice algorithm, cheats you into poverty. Naturally, I received no response from them. Google censors everything and anything they don't like. Being politically conservative, I am constantly blocked, shadow-banned and shut down by the almighty Google-bot. Since about two years ago, revenue has been horrible for many users. Judging by the members posting here, very few from the good old days - pre-2022, and especially, pre-2010, are still around. I suspect many have given up. Some may have abandoned their websites. Google, being essentially a monopoly, has taken people's work and bastardized it to suit their needs, which, I suspect, in a manner similar to the U.S. federal government, is not about providing relevant search results, but servicing their agenda of greed, subjugation, and disinformation. Google recently lost an anti-trust case to the government. I just noticed it and didn't read any articles about it because I know they're in bed with the government and the likelihood of anything being done to correct their monopolistic situation ranges from slim to none. Rather than promoting free dissemination of information, Google strives to suppress anything they disagree with. It's gotten to the point - for me, at least - that it's become a moral question, essentially, that by continuing to carry Adsense on my site, I am promoting their agenda. I have been moving gradually away from Adsense, despite there being no realistic alternatives. I am now accelerating that process to eliminate all of their ads from my sites by the end of 2024. For what it's worth, I am probably not going to stop working on my sites, or stop writing or publishing. That would be a victory for Google and their allies in the censorship regime. Eventually, if there's anything left of free markets in the U.S., an alternative may emerge, though it's likely to take a long time. Here's a story from years back (1980s) that may be instructive, when I was in the newspaper business (yes, real ink, paper, physical distribution, etc.). My biggest rival in the business was Gannett, the people who publish USA Today and many other newspapers. As I grew over the course of about 5-6 years and was actually becoming a threat to their local monopoly, I began to encounter advertisers dropping out. More than a few of them told me that a Gannett representative told them that if they continued advertising with me, they would never be allowed to advertise with Gannett. It was an open threat and many were frightened by it to the point of cancelling advertising with my newspaper. The same thing has probably already occurred in regard to any potential rival to Adsense, which has even more leverage. They will stop at nothing to secure and keep their monopoly intact. So, this isn't necessarily good-bye to this forum. I don't post often because I don't see the point and because I sometimes grate on people in negative ways. I just try to post what I think is true, and the truth is Google doesn't want small businesses to prosper or even survive. They want an internet made up of their buddies and big corporations. I warned about the potential for abuse years ago, when I told people that Google would use the information created millions of webmasters to enrich themselves. Well, they've done it. Now, how do millions of webmasters (maybe more like hundreds of thousands) fight back? Good luck to all in these trying times. BTW: Don't criticize Google. Your revenue will drop to almost nothing as your website is scrubbed from the internet.
So, basically, I've been operating this site and idleguy.com with little to no revenue for the past two years. Not that I don't like money - I do - but it's not my main focus. Information and truth have always been. Money comes and goes. The truth is permanent, no matter how disheartening it may be that nobody can see it or heed it. Maybe 10 or 15 years ago, the money would have been more important to me. Today, being pretty much retired, it's not. Here's the problem, however. Google controls the internet. They control what most people get to see, the revenue of a huge number of websites, and they're supposedly kept in line by governments, which, by and large, are in bed with them, like in the EU and the United States. So, they may be a monopoly, but the government is loathe to propose any realistic remedy, just like it is with any big multi-national corporation. Take eBay for instance. They may not be a monopoly, but their influence is widespread. People looking to buy or sell just about anything have been conditioned to look there. Ebay charges fees to sellers. They charge a percentage of the selling price, the shipping, any handling charges, and state tax. Yes, that's correct. Ebay charges sellers a percentage (usually around 15%) of the state tax they collect. The seller never sees the tax, probably isn't under any obligation to collect it or remit it, but, on a state tax of $1.00, they pay 15 cents. Not that collecting fees on shipping charges - which is a pass-through for sellers (they charge it, but also pay it) - is any less onerous and probably illegal, based on the legal principle of unjust enrichment, but ebay gets away with it because the government allows them to and sellers have become accustomed to it after some 10-12 years of its implementation. It's just straight up standardized and institutionalized theft, something many big corporations engage in on a regular basis. With government looking the other way, customers get screwed, buyers pay more, corporate profits are enhanced, and the executives get bigger bonuses. Yep. It stinks, but, it's what you get when government is concerned only with the continuity of their power and policies and re-election of its bought-and-paid representatives. The United States the EU and their allies have set themselves up for a world of hurt which will eventually be paid by their citizenry. They've gotten away with systematic abuse of their constituents - the general public - for decades, and now the entire system of rigged markets, fractional reserve, debt-based currency and banking, and crony capitalism is under assault from two sources combining into one, those being the BRICS and precious metals. It's no secret that China, Russia, India, and other BRICS-aligned nations have been buying gold hand over fist for the past three years and especially since the confiscation of Russia's assets at the onset of the Ukraine conflict in February, 2022. These same countries have been promoting what's known as de-dollarization, urging countries to settle cross-border trade in native currencies, bypassing the dollar. At the same time as the BRICS are emerging as a powerful force toward a multi-polar international trade and monetary world, gold and silver have been rising, even as the dollar strengthens or weakens, per the somewhat useless Dollar Index, which only measures the dollar against other fiat currencies. The price of gold in particular is a much better measure of the dollar's relative strength or weakness. Gold's price in dollars represents not that gold is becoming more valuable, but rather, the dollar (and the euro, yen, pound, etc.) is losing purchasing power, ergo, inflation everywhere and always. A quick glance at the calendar tells us that Election Day in the U.S. is two weeks from today and that the 95th anniversary of Black Monday, the beginning of the Great Depression marked by a 13 percent crash on the Dow Jones Industrial Average on October 28, 1929, is next Monday. The The IMF and World Bank annual meetings which started on Monday, coincide with the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia opened earlier today. Stocks are headed for a lower open with stock futures down across the board, bitcoin back below $67,000, but gold and silver bucking the trend. Gold continues to set record highs day after day, with the price at $2,750 a half hour to the open. Silver's rally continues after a brief slowdown to its frenetic action on Monday, up to $34.65 on the COMEX. Google needs to change many policies in my opinion. I am gradually removing their ads from my sites and while you can see them on some pages, they don't produce much in terms of revenue, so they're kind of an annoyance. Yeah, Google, GFY. -Fearless Rick
At the Close, Monday, October 21, 2024:
Sunday, October 20, 2024, 8:26 am ET Right off the bat, let's take a rational look at the presidential race in the U.S., without the usual gaslighting and bias that mainstream media doles out so generously. Three weeks ago, Money Daily's WEEKEND WRAP headline read thusly, Go Ahead and Vote, Trump Already Won. A few days later, the IdleGuy.com October issue further amplified the reasoning behind an inevitable Trump Victory. The real issues in this election are, in no particular order, immigration, the economy, inflation, crime, and honesty, and that last one is a big one that few commentators or poll-watchers have identified. It's the difference in campaign styles and running on one's record that has been making up people's minds for the past few months. Both candidates have track records that are readily available to any interested party. Trump's tenure from January 2017 to January 2021 s worth considering: low inflation, high employment, lower crime, less illegal immigration, low gas prices, no new wars started (and a couple skirmishes ended). Compare that to Kamala Harris as VP under Joe Biden: drag queen story hours, DEI, record illegal immigration, high inflation, staggering employment and the -818,000 revision to the non-farm payroll data, high gas prices, failure in Afghanistan and Ukraine, the Middle East blowing up. Now, one can say that, well, Harris was the vice, not the president, but Biden recently went so far as to say publicly that she was well aware and involved in all the policy-making of the administration. Plus, she was appointed "border czar" to put a nice cap on that fiction. Kamala Harris has been running away from her record and trying to project her failures onto Trump. Donald J. Trump has made his case, comparing his four years in office to the Biden-Harris years with all the coolness of a poker player holding four aces. The differences are clear and the American public refuses to be fooled. The election has been pivoting toward Trump all along, even though the media conglomerates wish to portray a close election with everything at stake, for what purpose, nobody really is sure, but likely to sell more ads and keep the American public at loggerheads. It's not working. Electing a president eventually is decided on trust and clearly Trump has proven more trustworthy than Harris. Not perfectly, mind you, but Trump tried very hard to keep his campaign promises the first time around, despite relentless interference by House and Senate Democrats, some from his own party, and, of course, the media. He's the only president to be impeached twice, and he still served out his full term. Drilling a bit deeper into the current malaise, the pollsters have been hard at work aligning with the media narrative that the race for the White House is up in the air. It is clearly not, and likely has never been, but that did not prevent the various polling organizations from oversampling women and Democrats in every key jurisdiction. The standard "fair" poll oversamples either women, minorities, Democrats, urbanites, or all of them. One example is Friday's (Oct. 18) East Carolina University poll of likely voters in Georgia, which showed Trump leading Harris, 49% to 46%. All of the data comes directly from the poll's own publshed results. The most glaringly obvious sampling anomaly is the preponderance of of female voters over males (a constituency in which Harris leads Trump among women by eight percentage points, 52% to 44%, and among African American women, Harris holds a sizable lead over Trump of 83 percentage points, 88% to 5%.) at 55.8% women to 43.8 men. If there's a disparity of women to men in Georgia such that there are 56 women and just 44 men for every 100 population, or, taking the U.S. Census approach - which states that there are 95.7 men for every 100 women in Georgia - there would be 88 men for every 100 women, meaning women in that poll are oversampled by about eight percent, or, men are under-sampled by the same amount. A more even distribution might put Trump even further ahead, possibly by as much as six to eight percent. Bear in mind, for every percentage point one candidate gains, the other loses, so, adding three percent to Trump's supposed 49-46% lead, makes the race ludicrously uneven, with Trump at 52% and Harris, 43%. In other words, a rout. There's also the roughly five percent unaccounted "undecided" voters, which could skew the results even further. The most recent polls now show Trump leading in every battleground state (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Georgia, and North Carolina), from the lowest, Wisconsin, at +0.1%, to his largest lead, Arizona, +1.4%. Add in anywhere from 3% to 7% for sampling bias, and it's clear that this election has become so one-sided, in Trump's favor, that his landslide victory is all but assured. The pollsters and media want to keep it looking close for their own purposes, mostly to keep viewership high right until November 5, because, in their narrow-minded views, the election is the only issue that matters. That's why the major TV networks have been losing viewers steadily for decades: they're almost completely out-of-touch with their audience. The other factor at play as the Harris campaign implodes is voter demoralization. The more the media cannot hide the Trump surge, the less likely Harris supporters are to even show up to vote. As it stands, the media hasn't been showing long lines of voters at early polling sites, probably because there aren't any, but, even if there were, they would consist mostly of Trump supporters. A demoralized constituency is a conceding one and the Harris camp sees a demoralized horde rapidly diminishing. In conclusion, there are probably a hundred ways the deep state has dreamt up that Trump can lose the race. Outside of killing him, massive voter fraud, or some kind of false flag to cancel the election altogether, the skullduggery is likely not of high enough quality to overturn the actual results. The public would see right through it, and, unlike 2020, there would likely be massive blowback this time around. Alex Jones has recently mentioned that Democrats might refuse to certify the results, making for another January 6 fiasco, so, even if Trump wins, unless its "too big to cheat", there may still be fireworks in the aftermath, but it sure looks like Donald J. Trump will be president come January 20, 2025. The crying and wailing from the left will probably be deafening for a while, but eventually, it will subside. Life, even in politics, goes on.
In keeping with the recent "all's well" narrative trend, the Dow, S&P, NASDAQ, and NYSE Composite all notched their sixth straight week in the black, the best weekly streak since the start of the rally nearly a year ago, when the majors all rose for nine consecutive weeks. With the rally a week short of a full year, the S&P has be up 37 weeks and dropped just 14. Equity owners cannot be more happy, nor complacent. While the weekly gains have been far from uniform, since September 6, the S&P has advanced from 5,408 to 5,864; the NASDAQ from 16,690 to 18,489; and, the Dow, from 40,345 to 43,275. Not bad. Year-to-date, the Dow is up 14.74%; S&P, 23.65%, NASDAQ, 25.22%. If stocks just hold the line the final two months plus, 2024 will be considered about average in recent memory factoring in dividends, so, acceptable, in these bubbly times. Starting with 2017, when the S&P was up 21.61%, there have been just two years on the downside: 2018 (-4.23) and 2022 (-18.04%). 2019 was up 31.21%, 2020, +18.02; 2021, 28.47%, and 2023, 26.06% (Source, with dividends). Looking at November and December and taking into account all of the distractions from the elections, ongoing military adventurism, and various data to be released, the Fed is likely to drop interest rates at both of their remaining meetings (November 6-7 and December 17-18). Whether it's 50 basis points or 25 for a total of 1/2 to a full one percent, stocks will likely have enough fuel to push even higher, discounting a black swan, grey swan, golden goose, cold duck, seared salmon, or boiled frog event. Earnings will be the highlight this week and next, overshadowing election hysteria. Here are the major earnings announcements for the week ahead: Monday: (after close) SAP (SAP), Nucor (NUE), Zions Bancorporation (ZION), Logitech (LOG). Tuesday: (before open) Verizon (VZ), Denny's (DENN), Lockheed Martin (LMT), 3M (MMM); (after close) Baker Hughes (BKR), Robert Half (RHI), Texas Instruments (TXN). Wednesday: (before open) CME Group (CME), Boston Scientific (BSX), Coca-Cola (KO), Boeing (BA), AT&T (T); (after close) IBM (IBM), Newmont Mining (NEM), Lam Research (LRCX), Tesla (TSLA), T-Mobile (TMUS). Thursday: (before open) Southwest Airlines (LUV), Honeywell (HON), Harely Davidson (HOG), American Airlines (AAL), UPS (UPS); (after close) Deckers (DECK), Texas Roadhouse (TXRH), Skechers (SKX). Friday: (before open) Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Piper Sadnler (PIPR), New York Community Bancorp (NYCB).
Yields barely budged on all maturities over the course of the week. The largest move was five basis points lower on one month bills to 4.92%. Other than that no treasury offering moved more than one basis point. Spreads were also stable, with 2s-10s remaining at +13 basis points for a second straight week. Full spectrum (30 days - 30 years) rose, from -58 to -54 basis points, the highest in nearly a year (10/27/2023). Rates continue to move toward flat-lining as the Fed seems intent on continuing to cut rates, with a minimum of two 25 basis point cuts remaining on schedule for this year at the November and December FOMC meetings. Spreads:
2s-10s
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
As tensions in the Middle East eased, WTI crude oil prices dropped significantly. $68.84 was the closing price Friday in New York, a massive 7.8% decline from last week's $74.71 per gallon. The nearly $6 drop was reportedly the worst week in over a year. So long as Middle East parties don't blow each other completely off the map, China's slowdown, slack demand in Europe and North America, and the change of seasons should keep oil prices in check. Gasbuddy.com reports the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.15 a gallon, down three cents from last week. California continues to have the most expensive fuel, at $4.59 a gallon. In Pennsylvania, prices were down five cents, at $3.33, with the Keystone State remaining the price leader in the Northeast, near the lowest level in 18 months. New York was lower, at $3.18. Connecticut ($3.08) and Massachusetts ($3.05) were stable, while Maryland dropped seven cents, to $3.16 per gallon. Prices in the Midwest came back down, with Illinois - just above $4.00 two months ago - down 10 cents this week, to $3.37 on Sunday. Oklahoma took over as the nation's low-price leader at $2.67, followed by Mississippi ($2.71), Texas ($2.72), and Louisiana ($2.73). Tennessee at $2.77, Alabama ($2.82), Kansas ($2.83), Missouri ($2.85), and South Carolina ($2.87). Though prices are well off summer highs, Florida ($3.07) remains the outlier in the South. Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in 29 U.S. states, mostly in the Southeast and Midwest, but now including New Jersey, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Ohio. Arizona, at $3.29, remained below $4.00 for a 24th straight week, leaving only California and Washington ($4.04) above the $4.00 level. Oregon is at $3.64 and Nevada at $3.83. Utah ($3.42) and Idaho ($3.39) remain well off summer highs and were each one cent lower for the week.
This week: $68,409.40 Bitcoin surged this week to its highest level since July 30, proving there's still enough liquidity to handle wild speculation. Bitcoin and other cryptos have benefitted from both presidential candidates making positive statements about the crypto-verse. Bitcoin remains atop the asset leaderboard, up 54.74% year-to-date.
Gold:Silver Ratio: 80.67; last week: 84.25 Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 9/20: $2,647.10
Silver price 9/20: $31.50 Silver absolutely, finally, broke out on Friday, gaining $2.16 on the day (+6.77%). It was a long-awaited step forward for the second precious metal, and, by most accounts, well overdue. Andrew Maguire, in this Live From the Vault video, has the best explanation for the breakout, showing charts and giving expert commentary and insight on the role of the bullion banks and their huge hoards of silver protected by hedged short positions over years. While the recent announcement by Russia holding back a large portion of their mined silver and allocating it to reserves had some impact, the greater catalyst was that of the major bullion banks - JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, and others - closing out their leveraged short positions, leaving speculators in untenable, losing, dire straits. Friday's rapid rise in the silver price dropped the gold:silver ratio to its lowest level in months, 80.67, a number that may well deteriorate further as positioning in silver is almost all on the buyer's side with few sellers able or willing to execute and deliver on contracts at this new, elevated level. A serious supply deficit has developed over the years and it doesn't seem to be anywhere near being complete. Maguire points out that the expected resistance is at $37, though he properly believes the price of silver is likely to catapult past its previous high, with a target of $53/ounce within a short period of time. It's highly advisable to watch the video to capture the tenor of Maguire's confidence.
He has good reason to predict rapid gains in silver, on a level last seen in August, 2010 through April, 2011, when the run from 18 to 47 took place over a period of a mere nine months. Should a similar condition present itself, the gains from August this year around $28/ounce could approach $73 in short order. If that happens, whether silver would hold those gains or see them dissipate, as they did from 2011-2013, there still seems to be an open window for speculation on the long side, though it may be closing quickly. Still, investing in silver at this point, while it may not return extremes, remains a solid plan. A doubling from here over the next few years appears written in stone, especially if BRICS continue pushing forward with their de-dollarization and alternative reserve currency multi-polar campaign. Fiat currencies will continue to be debased at an accelerated rate until they are extinguished, replaced with money that is more permanent and real. Gold is obvious. Silver, with its industrial applications, may offer sharper profits in the short and longer term. A Trump presidency could apply some brake to the dollar's demise. How much remains uncertain, but it appears that some people aren't willing to wait until November 5th to make their move. They've already started. Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) was substantially higher this week, at $41.12, a gain of $1.84 from the October 13 price of $39.28 per troy ounce. Premia on silver and gold continue to reflect sufficient demand amid higher prices in international markets. The most in-demand gold coins are American Gold Eagles (AGE) and American Buffaloes with prices for either well above $2,800.
As he countdown to Election Day approaches two weeks (Tuesday), it's apparent that some people have made up their minds, though in oddly disparate directions. On one hand, gold and silver have been top performers all year and this week saw silver get a turbo boost higher. Otherwise, stocks remain on fire at Wall Street brokerages, this week led by banks, of which some of them will benefit from holding precious metals inside their private and client vaults. It all looks like win-win, the only losers being the uninvested, which would amount to a large portion of the American public, about 38% of all adults, a pretty big number. As practically any investment advisor would say, it's never too late to start. Timing might be a problem, though, as stocks, gold, and silver are all at or near record levels and stuffing dollars into mattresses, besides being so 1930s, doesn't appear to be a smart move.
For the Week:
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