MONEY DAILY | Commentary on Stocks - Bonds - Gold - Silver - Crypto - Oil/Gas and more |
HOME | PRICE GUIDE | STORE | BLOGS | SPORTS | BUSINESS | WILD SIDE | CONTACT | ARCHIVES |
Weekly Survey of Gold and Silver Prices
Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark
Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.
PRIOR COVERAGE:
|
Friday, October 11, 2024, 9:04 am ET Before the opening bell for the week's closing session, globalists are rejoicing. Their sacred cows, BlackRock (BLK) and JP Morgan (JPM) are reporting this morning that all went well through the third quarter. Their CEOs, Larry Fink and Jamie Dimon, are basking in the afterglow of their triumphant earnings reports. BlackRock did exceedingly well, as djusted EPS increased five percent year-over-year, to $11.46, crushing the consensus estimate of $10.38. Total Assets Under Management (AUM) rose to $11.5 trillion, up $2.4 trillion year-over-year. Net inflows of $456 billion fueled positive momentum. Not to overshadow BlackRock's dominance in the field of financialization, Bank of New York Mellon's CEO said,
BNY reported strong third quarter results, reflecting growth across our three business segments and consistent execution against our strategic priorities, with assets under custody and/or administration exceeding $50 trillion for the first time. - Robin Vince, President and Chief Executive Officer, 3rd quarter results [PDF] $50 trillion! That's a lot of dough! JP Morgan, the nation's largest bank by assets, was less impressive. While profits fell in the third quarter as it set aside more money to cover future loan losses, its Wall Street operations beat expectations. Net income was $12.9 billion, down two percent from the year-ago period. Provisions for credit losses rose to $3.1 billion, up 125% from the year-ago period. Seems that 0.50% decrease in credit card interest rates is not helping out enough people quickly enough. The average credit card interest rate is close to 25%. JP Morgan has issued boatloads of them and continues to churn out new debt slaves daily. That's OK, though. JPM is up a little more than one percent in pre-market trading. Not to be outdone, Wells Fargo (WFC) earned net income of $5.11 billion in the third quarter, down 11.3% year over year, and reported GAAP EPS of $1.42, beating the consensus of $1.28. Revenue fell 2% to $20.37 billion. Analysts expected $20.41 billion. The U.S. banking giant reported an 11% year-over-year drop in net interest income to $11.69 billion. The company has set aside $1.065 billion as provision for credit losses, down $132 million from a year ago, helping to beat EPS estimates. Wells Fargo shares are up three percent in the pre-market. All of this is well and good if you're in the investor class with these finaincial giants. But, these few control trillions of dollars of assets, from stocks, to bonds, to real estate, and beyond. It's a little much, having all that money in the hands of and controlled by so few. The concentration of wealth (wealth disparity) in America has reached levels last seen in the robber baron days of the early 20th century. The wealthiest 10% have little to worry them. Meanwhile, the shrinking working class population struggles with debt and inflation, many households making as much as $200,000 a year are having trouble making ends meet. They feed the behemoth corporations above them and will be the most affected should the economy stall out or fall into recession. That doesn't worry the biggest financial organizations in the least. You spend. They collect. You fail, they prosper. Take it from the late George Carlin. If you've never seen this four minute clip from his 2005 HBO special, "Life is Worth Losing", you should probably watch it three or more times and let his message sink in a little bit.
Not to be too pessimistic, America is still pretty wonderful. Americans have all the latest technology, appliances, overpriced new cars, gadgets, fast food, and assorted consumer goods - most of which are made in China. What we don't have is a robust manufacturing base, an reasonably honest federal government, or generations of new leaders with clear visions for a better future. Vote harder. Finally, September PPI was fairly flat and somewhat inconsequential, as was Thursday's CPI release. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 1.8 percent for the 12 months ended in September. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services (core PPI) inched up 0.1 percent in September. For the 12 months ended in September, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 3.2 percent. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his Fed cohorts are still searching for that magical CPI at two percent. Honest to goodness, they're never going to see it. Inflation is so well ingrained and so much higher than reported that they might as well take that "stable prices" mandate and chuck it out the window. Prices will only come down when the economy cools off, and, right now, that doesn't seem to be happening, but, the Fed will continue cutting interest rates, as if hat matters at all. Food for thought. Enjoy the weekend. With any luck, there won't be any more hurricanes or forest fires.
At the Close, Thursday, October 10, 2024:
Thursday, October 10, 2024, 8:57 am ET In anticipation of what most likely will be characterized as "further evidence of falling inflation" or "in line with expectations" when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases September's CPI Thursday morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 each closed at record highs Wednesday. Bear in mind, the agency compiling the CPI is the same one that issues the monthly Non-Farm Payroll data, so flawed is their estimation of actual employment in America that last year's figures were revised lower by a record 818,000 jobs that were essentially figments of the over-zealous statistical imaginations, having little to do with actual on-the-ground realities. So, when the BLS says inflation is three percent or nine percent, as they did at the height of the inflationary excess back in the summer of 2022, the true figures affecting people's lives - including the price of new and used cars, insurance, food, fuel, education, housing - are likely much higher. The BLS has a history of underestimating inflation, for primarily two reasons: first, to keep the general public complacent and in favor of the government in general; and, possibly more importantly, to keep the annual COLA (Cost of Living Adjustment) for seniors on Social Security down, making retirement for those dependent on monthly government handouts somewhat more difficult to maintain. All the while, from the inception of the Federal Reserve in 2013 and the birth of Social Security in 1935, contributions to the safety net fund have grown as the purchasing power of the Federal Reserve Notes has lost 98% of its value. In other words, pay more, get less, or, to paraphrase Mark Twain, there are lies, damn lies and the the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Many analysts also suspect that the BLS is a highly-politicized agency, its purpose as a deep state organ to maintain the status quo and keep the current ruling party (or uniparty) in power. When the report was issued at 8:30 am this morning, all of the suspicions and skepticism were immediately tossed out the window as Wall Street reacted in their usual manner, through stock futures, which had been trending marginally lower, prior to the opening bell. Per the BLS:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in August and July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment. Somewhat surprisingly, with the headline figure remaining at 2.4% annually, the monthly figure of 0.2% was more than the 0.1% rise Wall Street was expecting. On an annualized basis, 2.3% was expected, so stock futures initially fell as the fear of inflation returning also puts in doubt the degree of future Fed rate cuts, the lifeblood of Wall Street. Within minutes of the release, stock futures slid, with NASDAQ futures down 86 points and S&P futures lower by 15 points. Gold and silver, recently sold off, were bid higher, the 10-year note yield up, the dollar down. Seniors will get a 2.4% bump in benefits, as the Social Security COLA is based on the average annualized CPI for July, August, and September. Missing expectations by Wall Street "experts" of figures proffered by dubious government agencies is now how the world gauges the U.S. economy. It is indeed a "new normal" and even more suspect than before.
At the Close, Wednesday, October 9, 2024:
Wednesday, October 9, 2024, 8:00 am ET Third quarter earnings reports begin flowing this week, starting with four of the biggest banks in the United States. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) report on Friday, followed by Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) Monday of next week. All will reveal before the opening bell. Fed rate cuts going forward will be top of mind concerning these retail bank operators as they derive a good share of their profits from consumer loans. While the 0.50% cut in September won't impact third quarter earnings, any further cuts - at the FOMC meetings in November (6-7) and December (17-18) - will. Thus, investors in bank stocks will be evaluating the future effect of squeezed margins due to a smaller spread available. As rates come down - probably by a full one percent through the end of the year, possibly more - these large banks will be impacted to varying degrees, making future guidance the key element of their respective third quarter reports. While big tech has been the big winner this year, bank stocks have fared well. With the S&P up 21 percent, JP Morgan has slightly out-performed, gaining 22.5 percent year-to-date, while Citigroup (+19%), Bank of America (+18%) and Wells Fargo (+16%) have fallen slightly off the pace, but still sport solid gains, especially when adding in dividend returns. Friday's figures should offer a contrast, as JP Morgan, arguably the best-run mega-bank, and Wells Fargo, considered the worst-run send out their numbers, while Monday's Bank of America and Citigroup reports should deliver more granularity. Throwing a potential wrench into the works are the September CPI Thursday morning and PPI on Friday, though one of the components, energy, will likely be tame as oil prices hit 18-month lows during the month prior to seeing the price jump in the early days of October. While the recent rise in the price of oil and back-to-back hurricanes affecting the Southern states, it all seems a bit too well-timed headed toward the general election on November 5 and the FOMC meeting taking place November 6-7. As earnings beyond the financials emerge in the weeks leading up to Election Day, stocks could run into some volatility, but it appears that investors may be more focused on the November 5 results, taking a wait-and-see approach as opposed ot jumping in head first based on earnings and forward guidance. Stocks could actually move sideways, gyrating close to all-time highs until the first full week in November. Looking ahead to Wednesday's session, there doesn't appear to be any grave concerns beyond Hurricane Milton bearing down on Florida's West coast. Gulf oil rigs aren't in Milton's direct path, so WTI crude is stabilizing in the low-to-mid $70 range. Gold and silver have given back their most recent gains. So far, October hasn't been kind to precious metals, but, considering the solid results from September and year-to-date, some pullback was expected, the metals remaining top assets for 2024. Stock index futures are hovering just below unchanged, giving the impression that the midweek trade may be somewhat of a dud, awaiting the CPI report Thursday morning.
At the Close, Tuesday, October 8, 2024:
Tuesday, October 8, 2024, 9:24 am ET As shocking as it may seem to some of the more bullish market participants, stocks can lose ground two days in a row. It's actually not that unusual. Since the early days of August, when stocks hit an interim low, the S&P finding support around 5,120, the Dow and NASDAQ have only had consecutive losing sessions twice. The S&P actually fell four straight sessions at the beginning of September, and had two declines in succession right before that. Whether one admits to it or not, there's a bit of a gambler in everybody. Risk is ever-present in stocks or in life. How each of us handles it speaks to the general nature of humanity. While some people are afraid of their own shadows, others are willing to jump off cliffs, walk barefoot over a bed of coals, or boldly go where angels fear to tread. There are people who think nothing of losing $20,000 in a day, whereas others may become physically ill over the loss of $200. Those types are seldom seen at race tracks or gambling parlors. Their psyche won't allow it. Looking at the bigger picture, gambling or investing isn't for everybody. Even some Wall Street hustlers burn out after a few years of the hurdy-gurdy. The more conservative, risk-averse types last longer and often end up in corner suites at the biggest brokerages. They tend to ignore the noise from daily fluctuations and focus more on weeklies, monthlies, quarterlies. They're the ones in it for the long haul. The bulk of investment money is of that more conservative nature, as funds tied to retirements, IRAs, 401Ks, mutual funds and long-term holdings make fewer trades, hold for longer periods, and seldom take distributions. They're the ones benefitting from the relentless pump-and-dump buy the dip philosophy that's been in effect since October of 2022, the latest - and current - bull run now a full two years old, properly positioned portfolios are up handsomely. Stocks may take a dive today, or not. Either way, it won't matter much to most people. Now, crude oil, that's a different story. WTI crude has been ripping higher five straight sessions, apparently because madmen in the Middle East can't seem to restrain themselves from bombing each other. This little jaunt from $68 to beyond $77 has been quick and decisive, though this morning there appears to be a pause, with oil down about two bucks prior to the stock market's opening bell. Understanding that choking off the Straight of Hormuz - the big fear presently - won't affect oil transit for long and that bombing Iran's oil facilities is kind of off limits, the big guns have been silenced for the time being. Israel, after being shelled recently by Iran's hypersonics, has seen its future and doesn't like the image. Even a leader as bellicose as Netanyahu understands that direct attacks on Iran might lead to Israel's ultimate destruction. Despite claims that Iran's rockets were largely intercepted, the reality on the newly-cratered ground is that the Iron Dome defense acted more like a Glass Jaw in the recent assault. Israel, open to criticism on the world stage, now senses its own mortality and is fearful for its future, with good reason. Broadening and deepening the ongoing conflict, which is already fairly broad and deep, has consequences the Israeli war machine may learn to regret without American involvement. Thus, they're cooling their heels for now because the U.S. has other concerns. As of today, Election Day is just four short weeks away and that's keeping Biden or whoever is pulling the strings in official Washington from writing checks the Israelis can't cash. Oil is down, gold is wavering. Silver is still cheap.
At the Close, Monday, October 7, 2024:
Sunday, October 6, 2024, 11:40 am ET Friday's stunning +254,000 new jobs in September's Non-Farm Payroll report was just the tonic needed to lift all the major indices into positive territory for the week. See for yourself.
At the Close, Friday, October 4, 2024:
For the Week: Pity the poor Transportation Average. Nobody was there to support it whatsoever. The BLS Non-Farm Payrolls were widely suspect. Even Senator Marco Rubio called them "fake." Were the numbers rigged just to put a happy face on the U.S. economy and keep the stock market from crashing ahead of the election? Skeptics are nearly unanimous in their assessment. The level of deceit and skullduggery the Democrats and the establishment will entertain to keep Donald Trump out of the White House is shameful and outrageous. Wall Street is content - and for good reason - with any figures the government produces. They manage to find a way to turn any news - good or bad - into positive spin to send stocks higher. The odd thing about the reaction to the latest NFP fudge sandwich is how quickly everybody forgot that a better economy means fewer or slower rate cuts.
Nothing really matters in markets until after the election, so it's not worth discussing other than the obvious need to keep prices elevated until November 5th. After that, maybe some sense of fundamentals will return. Pigs may also suddenly learn how to fly. Until then, keep buying stocks. Investors with horizons longer than the length of their noses may consider buying protection three to six months out.
Yields were higher across the board compared to the prior Friday quotes. Bond vigilantes were out in force, reacting with vigor to Friday's jobs report. Yield on the two-year note rose nearly a quarter percent - 23 basis points - just on Friday, and were up a whopping 38 basis points on the week. The actual treasury market has decoupled from the Fed's narrative and its commitment to now disregard inflation in favor of supporting employment, to which Friday's NFP report puts the lie. Were the jobs report to be believed, the need for a 50 basis point cut and any subsequent rate reductions would be obviated. It's plain to see just how politicized the Fed is, and always has been. Spreads backtracked on Friday in noticeable ways. 2s-10s were short-circuited to a mere +5, down from +20 last week. Full spectrum, however, continued to moved towards dis-inversion, at -75, the highest since April. 2s-30s were compacted, down to +33 from +55 a week ago. Eventually, given the Fed's penchant to lower short-term rates, within six months the curve won't have a slope at all, but more resemble a straight, nearly flat line, with 30-day bills at 3.75%, 2s around 4.00%, 10s at 4.15% and 30-year bonds no higher than 4.25%. A half-percentage point spread will make life difficult for banks, which normally rely upon buying short to sell long for profit. As a matter of course, "normal" is an amorphous term, applied liberally on a case-by-case basis. Spreads:
2s-10s
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
Those looking for higher crude prices finally got their wish, courtesy Israel and Iran firing rounds of rockets across the Middle East. Closing Friday in New York at $74.45, WTI crude oil was higher by nearly $6.00, from $68.64, the previous Friday. The price remains in the recent range and continues in a downtrend from the high of $118/barrel in June 2022. If tensions are contained in the Middle East (and, again, the big moves will likely come after the U.S. elections) crude could continue falling into the mid-to-low 60s and perhaps into the 50s. Escalation of the Middle East conflict could cause higher prices, and the election results could have radically different effects, depending on which party proceeds to power. Gasbuddy.com reports the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.14 a gallon, actually seven cents lower than last week's price. California's continues to have the most expensive fuel, at $4.63 a gallon. In Pennsylvania, prices were static, at $3.33 (up 1 cent), with the Keystone State remaining the price leader in the Northeast, albeit near the lowest level in 18 months. New York fell further away, dropping four cents, to $3.18. Connecticut ($3.05) and Massachusetts ($3.04) both are experiencing price drops, and Maryland has stabilized at $3.22 per gallon. Prices in the Midwest continue to waver, with Illinois - just above $4.00 two months ago - was down eight cents this week, to $3.41 on Sunday. Mississippi remained the lowest in the nation for a second straight week, at $2.62, followed by Louisiana ($2.66) and Oklahoma ($2.67). Tennessee is $2.74, Georgia, $2.71, with Texas and Alabama both at $2.74. Arkansas, $2.76. Missouri checks in at $2.82; South Carolina ($2.83). Florida ($3.08) remains the outlier in the South, though down eight cents from last week. Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in 20 U.S. states, mostly in the Southeast and Midwest, but now including New Jersey and Rhode Island for the past two weeks. That's up four states in the week and higher than the peak (18) three weeks ago. Arizona, at $3.31, remained below $4.00 for a 22nd straight week, leaving only California and Washington ($4.01) just barely above the $4.00 level. Oregon is at $3.64 and Nevada at $3.89. Utah ($3.45) and Idaho ($3.43) remain well off summer highs and were lower for the week.
This week: $62,739.60 Bitcoin took a bit of a dive this week, to a low of $60,170, shaving off profits from the short term top made in late September at $66,096, still well below the all-time high just above $73,000 (March, 2024), which is now becoming a fast-fading memory.
Gold:Silver Ratio: 82.40; last week: 83.99 Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 9/6: $2,526.80
Silver price 9/6: $28.27 September was an excellent month for precious metals, keeping precious metals the top asset class besides bitcoin for the year. Gold is up 28.67%, year=to-date, with silver readying to accelerate higher, up 35.24%. Silver was of particular note this week, especially Wednesday through Friday, as the price only briefly fell below $32/ounce. What appears to be consolidation may thwart the best intentions of buyers awaiting a pullback. The price continues to show strength. Adding to the impetus this week was the announcement by Russia's Finance Ministry that its State Fund would begin buying silver, along with gold, platinum, and palladium. Previously, silver was not included in precious metals purchases by Russia, making this announcement significant. Should other countries begin to acquire silver for their sovereign wealth funds, the price could easily proceed higher, possibly reaching $40/ounce over the short term, possibly by year's end. The announcement by Russia was not something that made major headlines, though those in the business made note, such as Ed Steer, whose weekly report was titled simply, "Russia... and Silver". At the Daily Reckoning, Adam Sharp penned, "Silver: So Much Bigger Than 2011", pointing out the huge deficit in silver as compared to its record run from 13 years ago. Sharp suggests a price of $130 silver in four years, which makes the question of whether to buy at $32 or $35, somewhat moot. Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) was slightly down this week, at $40.15, a decline of 33 cents from the September 29 price of $40.48 per troy ounce. Premiums on silver and gold continue to reflect sufficient demand amid higher prices in international markets. Gold premiums remain in place at about $100 above the COMEX continuous contract for one-ounce coins and $65-75 for one-ounce bars. WEEKEND WRAP Big changes will occur after the election. Depending on which candidate achieves the high office of the presidency, the changes will be either great or horrible. Actual Election Day is just mor than four weeks out, though early voting has already begun in many states. Choose wisely.
At the Close, Friday, October 4, 2024:
For the Week:
All information relating to the content of magazines presented in the Collectible Magazine Back Issue Price Guide has been independently sourced from published works and is protected under the copyright laws of the United States of America. All pages on this web site, including descriptions and details are copyright 1999-2024 Downtown Magazine Inc., Collectible Magazine Back Issue Price Guide. All rights reserved.
|