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PRIOR COVERAGE:
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Friday, November 7, 2025, 9:21 am ET
Normally, the first Friday of the month would offer the BLS release of non-farm payroll data for the prior month, but, with the government shutdown now at 38 days and counting, the BLS staff has been furloughed and all of the usual data drops simply aren't happening. Oddly enough, the president saw fit to keep some of the number-crunchers working as the shutdown began. Back on October 24, a skeleton crew produced the September CPI figures, which showed an uptick of inflation to an annual rate of 3.0% and a monthly increase of 0.3%. The numbers were considered important enough to keep market-watchers happy, and it certainly did the trick, as the interpretation was supposedly that since the figures were below Wall Street's expectations, everything was just fine, or, the higher numbers gave the Fed a solid rationale to lower the federal funds rate, which they did the following Wednesday. Stocks were up on the 24th, a Friday. After the Fed's rate hike, stocks were satiated to a degree, though there was disappointment when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell expressed an opinion putting a further 0.25% rate cut in December in doubt. So, for the second month in a row, there will be no non-farm payroll report, which, in a way, is refreshing, since the BLS data is usually so corrupted and massaged, it normally gets revised the following month, and again, on an annual basis, usually resulting in job numbers well below those originally reported. The BLS has been a great boon to politicians wishing to show a strong, vibrant U.S. economy when the reality is often vastly different. Thus, interested parties had to rely on the ADP Employment Report for October, released on Wednesday, which showed an uptick in private employment to 42,000, with small and mid-sized companies shedding jobs and companies with more than 500 employees adding.
"Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest relative to what we reported earlier this year. Meanwhile, pay growth has been largely flat for more than a year, indicating that shifts in supply and demand are balanced." As the government remains in shutdown mode, Senate Democrats have been huddling, seeking to find a suitable solution to reopen the government without betraying their priorities. The current scuttlebutt has Republican leader, John Thune, calling for a 15th vote on the House bill on Friday. The Democrats have reportedly culled together a plan that would make changes to the House bill, that, if passed, would require the new legislation to go back to the House for reconciliation. It's likely, even if something comes of this new tactic today, over the weekend, or early next week, that the government might reopen, but there's uncertainty that the House would agree. They've been out of session since late September, and Speaker Mike Johnson has repeatedly said that he won't reconvene the chamber until the Senate passes the bill already before them. Changes to the bill, would, naturally, force the Speaker to call the House back to session. With all that baggage, the shutdown is beginning to affect stocks and the general economy. 40 airports have already announced a reduction in the number of arrivals and departures due to staffing problems with unpaid air-traffic controllers. SNAP, the food stamps program, still has not been funded for November, though President Trump has agreed to comply with a court order forcing him to release contingency funds. However, the Agriculture Department, which handles the program, says its funds will only cover about two-thirds of the usual benefits and that making the changes to millions of food stamp accounts at the state level will take some time. Meanwhile, food banks are being overwhelmed across the country, as SNAP recipients have been forced to seek hand-outs elsewhere. At the same time, there are roughly 750,000 federal employees who have missed paychecks since early October, putting strain on their personal lives and family budgets. The military is being funded with money that was earmarked for other projects, which, for the time being, are on hold, the money being used to pay soldiers, sailors, airmen, and civilian military contractors. Those issues are beginning to become concerning to Wall Street, as the flow of capital is being negatively affected. Adding to their anguish are concerns that the AI boom may have resulted in some overpricing of tech stocks (no, really?). The air is slowly beginning to come out of the tech bubble. Stocks have suffered this week especially. Through Thursday's close, the Dow Industrials were down 650 points for the week; the NASDAQ had shed nearly three percent, or, 670 points; and the S&P 500 was down 120 points. A few Mag7 stocks were under pressure. Meta Platforms (META) is off 4.5% through Thursday's close; Nvidia (NVDA) is off by more than seven percent. As the opening bell approaches for the final session of the week, things aren't looking very rosy for the Wall Street faithful. Just beofre 9:00 am ET, Dow futures are down 140 points, NASDAQ futures are lower by 176, and S&P futures are down 31. Bitcoin dipped below $100,000 again this morning after a few days of "whale boating" took the price off Wednesday’s lows just above $99,000 back up to $104,000 and change. Social media sites, especially X, have been inundated with all manner of postings featuring Michael Saylor, Tom Lee, and ARK Invest's Cathie Wood, touting bitcoin projections of anywhere from $400,000 to over a million dollars within months or by 2030. The lid is off the crypto Pandora's Box. Along with declines of close to 20% for bitcoin, other crypto coins have fallen even further over the past month, with Ether down 28%, and Cardano off $39%. WTI crude oil continues to weaken as the prospect for higher prices due to sanctions against Russian oil companies has failed to scare anybody. China and India have continued uninterrupted purchases of Russian crude. The U.S. and European Union gambit - like all of the previous 17 tranches of sanctions - has failed miserably. WTI crude is holding around $60/barrel, but prospects for higher prices are slim to none. Gold and silver are showing showing resilience, with gold back above $4,000 and silver closing in again on $50, after the U.S. announced that silver was added to the strategic metals list and China placed limits on silver exports. Things are beginning to get interesting, so this may not be the optimal time to launch an invasion on Venezuela.
At the Close, Thursday, November 6, 2025:
Thursday, November 6, 2025, 9:21 am ET On Friday, October 31, the Federal Reserve injected $29.4 billion into repo markets, shoring up dwindling bank reserves, but since then, the number has grown substantially, to the point at which the Fed has pumped in a total of $125 billion in just five days October 31 - November 4). That's a rather large sum of money - about $360 for every American citizen - and it indicates the degree of stress and lack of liquidity in financial markets. Money is being drained from the system by various means, some of it related to the government shutdown, now the longest in U.S. history, which some people suggest is costing the economy $5 billion per day. The math almost adds up. With the government shutdown now in its 37th day, at a rate of $5 billion per day, that would amount to $185 billion. Maybe the $5 billion per day number isn't quite right, but it appears to be close. Without adequate money flows, from people to businesses to banks and vice versa, with the government acting as a kind of middleman, the system seizes up and money stops flowing. Stress is usually experienced at the margins, with poor people the first to notice. Suspension of SNAP benefits for November are beginning to have an effect in poor communities, with food banks and private charities seeking to fill the void, but, since the government isn't very good at partial measures - recent court decisions have forced the government to use emergency funds though they're only enough to supply roughly two-thirds of the usual $9 billion a month - rejiggering 42 million individual accounts at state levels isn't going to happen overnight. Thus, the money that usually flows through the system is caught in a bottleneck of the government's own making. While it is shameful that so many Americans need to receive assistance just to buy groceries, the overall effect of choking off the flow of funds affects not only the people who receive the money, but small merchants, grocery chains, and food providers all the way up to corporations like Tyson Foods, Pepsico, Yum! Brands and Coca-Cola, eventually showing up as decreasing deposits at commercial banks, which is why the Fed has stepped in to fill the void so aggressively. But, what about December, January, and beyond? And what about all the government employees that have been furloughed or are working without pay? The usual flow of money has been adversely affected by the government shutdown and it doesn't seem to be anywhere near being resolved. After a while, investors will begin to notice, which is why stocks and crypto issues went south on Tuesday. Albeit a little overdue to reflect on the ground reality, people and institutions are beginning to sense that the problems in financial markets are deeper and more structural than monetary easing by the Fed can handle. Tuesday's predictable deat cat bounce supplied some temporary relief in the stock markets, but the indices began to swoon as the session drew to a close. While the S&P 500 did manage to finish ahead by 24 points, it was up nearly 60 just prior to 2:00 pm ET. Not everybody was sold on the idea of buying the dip or that the economy is fundamentally sound, probably because it's not. The U.S. economy is weak and it gets weaker every day the government shutdown continues, and maybe that's the point. Maybe the government has finally decided to throw up its hands and declare that it cannot continue on the long path of debt and deficits, inflation and growing poverty that has become endemic. Maybe they won't reopen the government after all, though one wonders how the neocons in congress and the administration plan on funding the bombing of Venezuela... and Ukraine... and Gaza. To be perfectly honest, the U.S. government isn't fully shut down, only the parts deemed non-essential, which raises the question, if they're not essential, why are we paying for them in the first place? Beyond that casual observation, the IRS is still functioning, so there is some tax money coming in, and Treasury auctions continue, so the government hasn't stopped borrowing. There's some money coming in, but, not as much. The kicker is that some expenses have been curtailed, for now, so Treasury Secretary Bessent has plenty of wiggle room to move money to wherever it is needed. Such a deal! Approaching the open, stock futures are modestly higher based on the notion that spiraling corporate layoffs due to AI are increasing the odds for a December rate cut. Seriously, you can't make this stuff up. Could it be that corporate layoffs are due to business slowing and not AI? Maybe? And, so, that would be bad for stocks, no? Um, no, layoffs reduce overhead, leading to higher profits, but, rate cuts, too. The goal here is to have robots and AI bots doing all the work, Americans out on the streets, the federal funds rate at 0.25% and stocks to the moon. Makes perfect sense. Gold and silver are rebounding. China has tightened export controls on silver, along with tungsten and antimony. Spot silver is bid at $48.33. Spot gold, $4,006.80. WTI crude futures, after a few days in the 60s, is back down to $59.79.
At the Close, Wednesday, November 5, 2025:
Wednesday, November 5, 2025, 9:29 am ET Bitcoin has been taking a beating of late, and, on Tuesday, it got beaten like a rented mule, from $107,000 down to $99,095. It was the first time Bitcoin had not been priced in six digits since early May. At that time it was quickly recovering from some turbulent trading that had sent the price tumbling from $105,000 in late January down as low as $75,000 during the first tariff scare in early April, so, it appears that the alternative to the fiat US dollar is subject to wild swings valuation based on political activity. One question that really needs to be addressed by the crypto crowd concerns the ultimate utility of bitcoin and the thousands of other "alt-coins" and various vacuous specie traversing the ether. Just what is the point of an electronic currency that has, over its 16 years of existence, failed to engender mass adoption, is owned largely by "whales" and institutional money managers like BlackRock or the inscrctible MicroStrategy of Michael Saylor, or even the government of El Salvador? Taking the example of El Salvador as a prime example of its lack of traction, the government of that Central American country had mandated bitcoin as legal tender in 2021, yet, after four years of the public eschewing its use at the retail or wholesale level, the government, with little fanfare and even less coverage in the financial media, backed away from the failed experiment in February of this year. The exceptional experience of an entire nation rejecting use of the "miracle in the void" should have served as proof enough that bitcoin, and, by inference, the entire crypto-universe of tokens, alt-coins, NFTs, and stablecoins needs to be relegated to the scrapheap of history. Crypto has no utility. Say it again: crypto has no utility. It is nothing but idle speculation with excess capital amidst the biggest financial bubble in the history of mankind. The followers - cultists, really - continue to cling to debunked notions that it is anonymous, private, peer-to-peer, trustless, frictionless money. Tell that to anybody who's bought, sold, or traded any kind of crypto-currency over any of the exchanges like Coinbase or Binance. There's absolutely nothing private about it at all, transacting in crypto is a pretty large pain in the behind overall, there are fees for every transaction, and people routinely lose control of "their" crypto, via scams, missing keys, theft, and all kinds of other misanthropic misadventures. Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto space is imploding, while at the same time the U.S. government has promoted a crypto sovereign fund and use of stablecoins as a means fo salvation from its $38 trillion debt abyss. The dealings of President Trump, his two sons, Eric and Don Jr., crypto czar David Sacks and certain Senators - particularly Senator Cynthia Lumis of Wyoming - need to be scrutinized, not by congress (many of whom back the Ponzi stablecoin scheme) or any government regulators, but by the American public, because attempting to establish crypto as legal tender or currency in America reeks of insider dealing and malfeasance. After all, bitcoin was tested in El Salvador. What makes the U.S. government think it can make it work on a much larger scale when it was completely rejected in a trial run. Are American politicians smarter than the people of El Salvador? They probably think they are, yet they've proven to be among the most deceptive, larcenous, traitorous assemblage in the history of politics, and that includes some very, very unsavory creatures. Senator Cynthia Lumis of Wyoming needs to be run out of town on a rail. So too, the Trump brothers, Eric and Don Jr. and the president's crypto czar, David Sacks and while we're at it, Treasury Secretary Bessent and the president himself, for guiding America to being the "crypro capital of the world," which is simple shorthand for the biggest financial fraud since John Law's Louisiana ventures. Blackrock's Larry Fink should be in a federal prison. As CEO of Blackrock, he's responsible for some of the worst financial deals of this or any decade. Led along by Michael Saylor, a convicted felon, the U.S. government - still shut down after 35 days, now the longest in history - has perpetrated massive malinvestment and malfeasance. Isn't it time to flush out all the fraud that encompasses the "crypto industry" and start naming names, ridding the financial industry of the grifters, thieves, and con men, including a good number of Senators and House Representatives, and getting back to sound money, like silver and gold, upon which the United States of America was founded? To think that the U.S. government would go so far as to establish a "crypto sovereign fund", pass the GENIUS Act, enabling more corruption and burning of the nation's wealth, and have the support of both parties in enabling "stablecoins" as a means to pay down the $38 trillion in government debt, is in any way the actions of a responsible government would be tantamount to calling Bernie Madoff a "square dealer." While the U.S. government is shut down, it's probably a good idea to keep it that way. After all, should they re-open, all they'll do is spend money they don't have on projects that are already proven failures. The people who populate the environs of the United States of America would be far better off without any government of any kind, federal, state or local, than the amalgamation of misguided takers that encompass the entirety of the government leviathan bureaucracy. Americans need to face up to the reality that the country is at a very dangerous turning point, at the brink of failure, mostly due to the lack of discipline at the very height of government, in the Senate, House, White House and the Supreme Court. For mercy's sake, they cannot balance a budget and now they can't even keep the lights on. American people need to prepare for the worst, because, whether intentional or accidental, it matters not, the managers of the government are either completely incompetent or entirely corrupt, and probably both. Looking ahead, it's hard to imagine the NASDAQ rebounding from Tuesday's bloodbath, but there will be a concerted effort made by the usual suspects to put a happy face on the market. With the opening bell on Wall Street just moments away, futures are flat-lining, bitcoin has revived from $99,000 to $103,000. There's likely to be a dead cat bounce Wednesday, but, in the end, the cat is still dead, the government is still closed, and America is failing on many levels.
At the Close, Tuesday, November 4, 2025:
Tuesday, November 4, 2025, 8:34 am ET Shades of 1929 are occurring in the crypto space and elsewhere. Crypto liquidation occurs when a trader's position is automatically closed by an exchange due to insufficient margin to cover losses, often resulting from leveraged trading. Crypto liquidation refers to the forced closure of a trader's position when their margin account falls below the required maintenance level. This typically happens in leveraged trading, where traders borrow funds to increase their exposure to a cryptocurrency asset. If the market moves against the trader's position, leading to significant losses, the exchange will liquidate the position to recover the borrowed funds and prevent further losses. In the Great Crash of 1929, margin calls forced leveraged speculators to raise more cash to cover their outstanding debt on money borrowed to invest in stocks. As stock prices fell, large and small speculators alike were bankrupted in September and October of 1929 and beyond. The margin calls created a vicious loop of forced selling that eventually spilled over into the general economy. Individuals and institutions that had been living lavishly suddenly had insufficient cash to buy much more than a day's meals or a month's rent. The lack of spending by parties that had formerly been supporting the economic growth of the 1920s - among other factors - fed directly into the general impoverishment of the Great Depression. Similarities between the boom of 1928 and bust of 1929 can be made to current conditions. The crypto market and the tech-led NASDAQ have been built up by speculators, buying ephemeral crypto issues and tech stocks with pie-in-the-sky valuations on promises of some AI-induced economic miracle by which nobody works and everybody is rich. A similar condition existed in the late 1920s, when a strong economy was producing excess income, as bankers and brokers advised everybody from shoeshine buys to retail clerks into buying stocks on margin, leveraging their returns. It all worked quite well when stocks were going up, day after day, month after month, but the market, as always, delivered a stern correction on the way down. At first, the selling was characterized as "normal, healthy pullbacks" or "profit-taking" and stocks shrugged off losing sessions and charged ahead. That was the first warning shot. Next, institutional spokespeople from the Federal Reserve, the stock exchanges, and the government began making off-the-cuff remarks about the strength of the economy, none more famous than Irving Fisher's, the Yale professor and economist who declared that the stock market had reached "a permanently high plateau". Recently, posts on X by bitcoin proponents like Tom Lee and Michael Saylor have been echoing similar sentiments, with projections of bitcoin reaching such lofty valuations of $200,000 by year's end, $400,000 in 2026 and rising into the millions by the end of the decade. When speculators begin to make pronouncements like that with little to no academic or rational backing, a second warning beacon is triggered. Rather than facing the reality that their speculation might end in disaster, these heavily-leveraged plungers are hoping to keep the plates of their speculation spinning. It usually doesn't end well, as Mr. Market always has ideas of restoring order and reversion to the mean, which, in the case of bitcoin, would be a correction back to around $32,000, a 70% crash which would wipe out not only the diamond-handed "hodlers" of bitcoin, but most of the speculative money in ETFs and other derivative bets. Bitcoin isn't alone in its recent liquidation-driven decline. Other popular "coins" and issues like Ethereum, Solana, Dodgecoin and hundreds of other less-well-known cryptos are being wiped out. While "Big Daddy" bitcoin took a four percent slide on Monday, Ethereum dropped eight percent, XRP, 9 percent; Dodgecoin, 10 percent; Solana, 11. That's just Monday. Liquidations have been prevalent throughout October, resulting in $19 billion in liquidation-induced losses. November isn't looking much better. The crypto space may be just the most obvious canary in the economic coal mine. Billions of dollars in what was normally-spendable income has been suspended by the government shutdown. It was decided on Monday that SNAP food benefits would be funded from emergency funds, but only about half of the usual $8 billion monthly hand-out was available and it could take states weeks or even months to work out the details. Quietly, on Friday, the Federal Reserve injected $29.4 billion into its Standing Repo Facility (SRF) to help ease strained liquidity concerns at major banks and primary dealers. This was the largest cash infusion since the pandemic. While people were pre-occupied with the government shutdown, SNAP benefits, the World Series and football, there were some panicky people in high places doing odd things with money, setting up a perfect liquidity storm that's approaching gale force. Monday's mid-morning meltdown in stocks was far from an isolated event. The major indices hit the lows of the day around 10:30 but immediately made a U-turn to higher ground. The NASDAQ never even turned red, but the S&P did, and only ended with a slight gain. The Dow suffered in negative territory all day long. Money being drawn out of the financial system from various sources has a snowballing effect, though it may be imperceptible at first, it becomes more and more obvious as time passes. There have been instances of defaults on car loans and credit cards and bankruptcies are on the rise. Student loan default rates have spiked to well over 10%. As of March, 2025, because of various government schemes, only 35% of all student borrowers had been making payments on time. Another sign of trouble brewing are gatherings of business leaders boasting about investments for the future and generally celebrating prosperity. When President Trump hosted the wealthiest tech billionaires at the White House in early September the talk was all about money, technology, and investment in American enterprise. The gathering was supposed to highlight America's economic prominence. All it accomplished was making a lot of people who don't own yachts and live in penthouses envious and maybe a little bit angry. If stocks begin to stumble and business leaders begin making exhortations about the strength of the economy - Trump is the master of saying how great and fabulous everything is - it's probably a sign that lean times are dead ahead. That happened in the run-up to the 1929 crash and ensuing Great Depression. America may not be heading for a depression on the scale of what occurred back in the 1930s, but there are troubling signs that a downturn in the economy is probably already underway. The Fed doesn't cut rates twice in a row if everything's hunky-dory. They cut - as they did in September and October - when they see trouble. So here we are on Tuesday, November 4, 2025, and bitcoin has dropped another $3,000, down as low as $103,607 prior to the opening bell for stocks. Meanwhile, a Bloomberg headline blares: Wall Street CEOs Flag High Market Valuations, Pullback Risk as stock futures head into the tank. The article cites, among others, Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s David Solomon, expressing the view that stocks could pullback 10% or more in the next 12 to 24 months. That, right there, folks, is comedy gold. Stocks could drop 10% in the next 12 to 24 weeks or 12 to 24 days, which, of course, would never be mentioned by anyone in good standing at the Wall Street casino. Statements and articles - especially from Bloomberg, the most propagandized of all media - like that are clear signs that something is up and that asset values are headed lower. There is some good news. Dick Cheney, former VP under president George W. Bush and an original neocon, died overnight, officially, November 3. Cheney is famous for helping instigate the war in Iraq which toppled Saddam Hussein, assisted by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld (July 9, 1032 - June 29, 2021), Secretary of State Colin Powell (April 5, 1937 - October 18, 2021), Chief Advisor Karl Rove (still living) and others. As far as speculation in crypto assets is concerned, there is ample reason to be concerned since bitcoin and the thousands of other crypto copies aren't actually money, or assets, but nothing more than numbers in blockchains. None of them - bitcoin, ethereum, fartcoin, dogecoin, or any other "coin" - has any value whatsoever, so, they are subject to the wanton whims and festering fantasies of speculators, manipulators, and swindlers running rampant in financial markets. Just as a reality check, ask yourself if you know anybody who has bought groceries or paid rent or a mortgage with any kind of crypto. Chances are good that you don't. Crypto is more than speculation, worse than the South Sea bubble or Tulip mania. This is speculation on things that exist only in blockchains, in the ether, in cyberspace. There's neither value nor utility, only price movements. These are not investments. They are sinkholes that swallow up excess capital. With all the speculation and super-high valuations in vaporware like crypto and blue sky promises from the AI horde, a rug-pull is almost a 100% certainty. We may be witnessing the early stages of the biggest bubble bursting in the history of mankind. Be ready.
At the Close, Monday, November 3, 2025:
Sunday, November 2, 2025, 11:23 am ET
The stock market managed to escape what is traditionally the month for crashes - October - unscathed. Stocks closed out the last week of the month with the usual upside drift, though end of session Friday was a little frightful (it was Halloween, after all), as the major indices were down more than 50% from the day's highs. The Dow was particularly amusing, making the high of the session 15 minutes before the close, 47,718.38, only to finish about 150 points lower, 47,562.87, for a paltry gain of just 40 points. Now that it's November and Daylight Savings Time has been turned off, clocks surrendering an hour to the will of the government and nature, the Fed rate cut in the books, and no food stamps for some 40-42 million Americans (former president Obama, who apparently wishes more of a welfare state, put the number at 47 million. Math not his strong suit). Riots and looting haven't begun in earnest, or, at least the mainstream media isn't reporting any. Hungry people can become angry people pretty quickly, but, nobody's actually run out of food yet. Food pantries and other charitable types have stepped in to fill the void... and the stomachs. Congress refuses to move on the issue, two courts demand that the Trump administration release emergency funds to recharge the EBT cards, and the president cynically asked the court for specifics. Somewhere along the line, there's likely to be a scapegoat uttering something along the lines of Marie Antoinette's infamous expression of disdain for common folk, "let them eat cake." It's probably going to be Senate Democrats, who refuse to pass a continuing resolution already approved by the House, though it could be Senate Republicans, who refuse to end the filibuster rule that requires a 60-vote majority for cloture, and pass the CR without Democrat votes. It could even be President Trump. There is going to be pain, blowback, and eventually, though it could take years and come in odd ways, retribution. In any case, the government remains on shutdown, now into its 33rd day, soon to become the longest of government shutdowns. There is a loud chorus of anarchists hoping it remains closed permanently, though that is unlikely to happen. Sooner or later, the congress will come to the realization that they can't adequately hurt American citizens and loot the treasury without some kind of formal legislation. They will pass some kind of funding bill, but, their reputation already in tatters, will be irreparably damaged, the public certain they are nothing more than well-attired scoundrels and thugs. Stocks Stocks went up. Nothing new about that. The Shiller PE (CAPE) ended the week at 40.88, not quite the highest ever (44.19, November 1999). The week ahead will feature another basket of earnings reports from widely held companies. Here's a partial list: Monday, November 3: (before open) Fubo (FUBO), FreshPet (FRPT), Cipher Mining (CIFR); (after close) Palantir (PLTR), hims hers (HIMS), Clorox (CLX), Goodyear Tire (GT) Tuesday, November 4: (before open) Pfizer (PFE), British Petroeum (BP) Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH), Spotify (SPOT), Shopify (SHOP), Uber (UBER); (after close) Pinterest (PINS), Astera Labs (ALAB), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Beyond Meat (BYND) Wednesday, November 5: (before open)Humana (HUM), Brinks (BCO), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Mcdonald's (MCD) ; (after close) AMC (AMC), Dutch Bros. (BROS), Snap Inc. (SNAP), Robinhood (HOOD), Applovin (APP), Qualcomm (QCOM) Thursday, November 6: (before open) ConocoPhillips (COP), AstraZeneca (AZN), Moderna (MRNA), Warner Brothers Discovery ((WBD); (after close) Opendoor (OPEN), Draft Kings (DKNG), Air B&B (ABNB) Friday, November 7: (before open) Wedny's (WEN), Fluor (FLR), Six Flags (FUN), Duke Energy (DUK), Constellation (CEG) As it always does, Berkshire Hathaway jumped the shark with it's earnings release on Saturday. Warren Buffett's holding company continues to eschew buybacks of its own stock, remains a net seller of stocks and increased its cash position to more than $382 billion while improving profits for the third quarter, beating estimates. Treasury Yield Curve Rates
The Fed delivered on the 0.25% cut to the federal funds target rate, though Chairman Powell refused to confirm another such cut in December, which sent the major indices into a temporary nose-dive. As has happened in the past, while short-term bills witnessed yield declines, longer maturities were higher, with the 10-year up nine basis points and the 30-year bond yield up eight. Two year yields were up 12 basis points, though the yield curve, as a whole, is proceeding to steepen, a positive development. 2s-10s spreads dropped to +51 while full spectrum roared up to +61, the highest since July. Demand for treasuries was shaky. Spreads:
2s-10s
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years) Oil/Gas President Trump and Europe's sanctions on Russian oil will prove to be completely ineffective, as WTI crude closed out the week at $60.88, after rallying to $61.44 the week prior. There simply isn't anything the U.S. or E.U. can do about an oil glut and BRICS countries - especially India and China - will continue to buy Russian oil regardless of potential penalties or knuckle-thumping by the West. The temporary rise in oil prices had little effect at the pump, with the U.S. national average down a penny, at $3.02, according to Gasbuddy.com. California remains the priciest, at $4.66 per gallon, up seven cents, followed by Washington ($4.29), lower by six cents on the week. Oregon ($3.85), was down another eight cents on the week, after a flirtation with $4.00. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma ($2.50) the lowest, followed by Texas ($2.51), Mississippi and Arkansas both at $2.56. Louisiana ($2.57) and Alabama ($2.62) follow. The remaining Southeast states are all below $2.75 (Georgia), with Florida the exception, at $2.95, up a nickel. Relief continued in the Northeast, where most states were under $3.00, except for Pennsylvania ($3.21), New York ($3.08) and Vermont ($3.07), and Maine ($3.01). Illinois ($3.20) was the only Midwest state above $3.00. Kentucky was lowest, at $2.67. Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in 35 states, up three from last week. Bitcoin (fake)
This week: $110,406.10 Bitcoin, which was supposed to rally to $200,000, $400,000 and beyond, was down for the week. The charts say $70,000 or lower in the near term. Precious Metals Gold:Silver Ratio: 82.16; last week: 84.54 Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 10/3: $3,912.10
Silver price 10/3: $47.97
SPOT:
Silver 10/17: $51.88
(Kitko)
Silver 10/19: Bid: $51.86; Ask: $51.98 Gold and silver were under pressure, though not as significantly as the week prior. Prices for precious metals are back to where they were three weeks ago - and slightly above in the case of silver - indicating that the short-term suppression measures were very weak-handed. Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) gained slightly over the week, to $56.18, a a gain of six cents from the October 26 price of $56.12 per troy ounce. The small-denomination, physical market continues to add premia to spot. WEEKEND WRAP Go get some food while its still available.
At the Close, Friday, October 31, 2025:
For the Week:
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