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Weekly Survey of Gold and Silver Prices
Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark
Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.
PRIOR COVERAGE:
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Friday, November 8, 2024, 9:33 am ET All of the major equity indices made record highs on Wednesday though very few made much of it. The NASDAQ and S&P furthered their gains on Thursday, while the Dow, which was Wednesday's big winner with a gain of 1,508.05 points (+3.57%), took 59 cents off the top. There was no panic other than those of the lunatic left, whose diversity dreams have been shattered by recent developments. Bitcoin was also a winner Wednesday, setting a new record at $76,642, as enthusiasm over Trump's embrace of the crypto space drove a one-day mania. How long bitcoin can remain at elevated levels remains to be seen. Trump, and billionaire supporter, Elon Musk, have not advanced any specific proposals concerning alternate currencies. What will make a difference is how influential Trump and his cabinet will be regarding regulatory issues, though it will be months before anything consequential occurs. Having to battle with the Federal Reserve, the IRS, and the SEC may be a bar too high even for Trump and his team. The Fed doesn't like competition with the dollar, the IRS wants to tax any gains in cryptos, and the SEC continues to classify bitcoin and other tokens as securities. All of this works to undermine the most appealing aspects of crypto: anonymity, ease of use, and as a store of value. Those of the belief that Trump, a champion of free markets, can loosen the grip of government agencies and the central bank might want to take a stroll back in time to Trump's first term as president, where he was harassed and undermined by congress, the deep state bureaucracy, the mainstream media, and even members of his own party throughout. There's little evidence to suggest that the same tactics employed against Trump and his proposals won't be at the forefront of the leftist scourge to tar and feather the sitting president, except that Democrats will probably not wield the majority in the House, which led to two attempts at impeachment. That doesn't mean they won't try; they'll likely have to be a little more discerning in how and where they focus their bitter vitriol. With 10 weeks between now and inauguration, there's a whole bag of tricks the outgoing administration can employ to make the transition unpleasant for the incoming group. The situations in Ukraine and the Middle East remain on tenterhooks, for instance, and there's nothing Trump can do until he's officially in the White House. Certainly, the media, unhappy at the results from Tuesday, will continue its non-stop assault on Trump policies, especially in terms of economics and social matters. So too, the feckless opposition figures in congress like Chuck Schumer, Elizabeth Warren (no fan of bitcoin), Jamie Raskin and Adam Schiff - who has now been elevated to senator thanks to the numb voters in the Golden State - will twist every word spoken by Trump into some form of mis-or-disinformation or conspiracy theory. The deep state, even now as they lose power, will not go away quietly if they even go away at all. What should raise eyebrows over bitcoin's upside spasm is how it diverged away from gold and silver, which are, as anybody with a functioning brain knows, real money. If bitcoin was actually an alternative to the mighty dollar, it would have fallen along with them. By gaining so much, so fast, the record highs appear contrived and possibly fleeting. Thursday's expected 25 basis point drop on the federal funds rate via the FOMC policy announcement did little to change anybody's mind about anything, though precious metals gained, as they should, on concerns over re-igniting inflation. Released Thursday afternoon, the statement changed the message on inflation in the very first paragraph, saying, "Inflation has made progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated." The reality is that inflation is more likely to be tamped down more by Trump's policies than any rate movement by the Fed. This cut may be their last, as the economy is weak, prices remain too high for staples and housing and just about everything else, and lower rates encourage more speculation and excess, not less. That language was a significant change from prior readings, though it didn't make much of a difference. Stocks were already peaking. Any more bubbling up in the equities sphere might have been cause for alarm that markets were overheating (they are). As it is, the Shiller PE Ratio stands at 38.08, just 0.50 from the second-highest level ever recorded of 38.58, from October, 2021, as the economy emerged from the COVID panic. On the earnings front, Paramount Global (PARA) reported third quarter revenue of $6.73 billion, a 6% drop compared to the $7.13 billion in the year-ago quarter. Adjusted EPS was 49 cents, a solid improvement from the 30 cents reported for the same quarter in 2023. Futures are mixed, with the Dow up marginally and NASDAQ and S&P slightly to the downside. Friday may consist more of head-scratching and profit-taking than anything substantial. Oil, which has recently been under pressure, continues to resist higher prices and is more likely to decline as Trump encourages more drilling and lower prices at the pump. With Tuesday's win, Trump has changed the dynamics of world politics and the economy, hopefully, for the better. Equity markets seem to think it's the start of a golden age for stocks. Gold will soon re-assert itself, proving that the only thing golden is actually gold.
At the Close, Thursday, November 7, 2024:
Thursday, November 7, 2024, 10:10 am ET Wednesday's knee-jerk reactionary upside explosion in stocks carried all of the earmarks of economic bubble euphoria, sending stocks into a dizzying spiral of financialized speculation based on little more than FOMO and expectations of an end to four years of dismal conditioning by the woke administration that will soon be ousted. This is not to say that the gains following Donald Turmp's ascendancy to another term as president of the United States was not unwarranted - some were, indeed - it's just that the entire escapade may have been a bit overdone. After all, outside of the imposition of tariffs on Chinese imports, few of Trump's policies when he eventually takes office on January 20, are well known. He's named no cabinet members, though there are lists of potential candidates for key positions such as Treasury Secretary, though hedge fund manager John Paulson, Trump's first Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, and former U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who helped oversee Trump's imposition of tariffs and help craft deals with China, Canada and Mexico, have been floated as possibilities. Just about anybody would be an improvement over the current deep state insider, Janet Yellen, a former Fed Chair, and that opinion was dutifully expressed in the gains made in the financial sector. However, it's still early in the transition process, and, while positive developments are widely anticipated, the massive buying spree on Wednesday may eventually be looked back upon as just another of Wall Street's infamous pump-and-dump schemes, designed to fatten the coffers of those closest to the markets at the expense of retail participants. With a run-up of Wendesday's magnitude, it's only fitting that there would be some giveback, likely withing days or weeks. A few things that Trump's win on Tuesday did accomplish for the good of Wall Street and the general economy, are, in no particular order:
An end to wokeness and DEI quotas Most importantly, Trump's win made today's 2:00 pm ET FOMC announcement of a 25 basis point cut to the federal funds rate largely inconsequential. Overshadowing the Federal Reserve is no easy task, but winning the presidency checks all the boxes in terms of importance. Looking out past this afternoon, stocks are likely to remain bouyant in the near term. As the transition from Biden-Harris to Trump-Vance comes more into focus, there are likely to be some bumps in the road. While taking back the White House, the Senate, and probably the House of Representatives is probably vital to prosperity for Americans, there's a larger world out there over which policies of the U.S. government has little to no control. Other countries, especially those aligning with BRICS, have their own prerogatives, and they will do as they please. Donald Trump, if he is anything, is largely non-interventionist. Plus, there's more than 10 weeks between now and January 20, Inauguation Day. Markets are just not going to stand still and wait for developments. They're also unlikely to go straight up, as they did on Wednesday. Putting that into perspective are the earnings reports that emerged after the close and early Thursday morning. Some of the more natable companies reporting third quarter results are Hecla Mining (HL), Qualcomm (QCOM), Mercado Libre (MELI), Pinterest (PINS), Hershey (HSY), Halliburton (HAL), Moderna ((MRNA), Barric (GOLD). No big names in there, but the Mining stocks Hecla (HL) and Barrick (GOLD) are likely to be overlooked after gold and silver were mercilessly beaten down on Wendesday. What's that you say, "buy low, sell high?"
At the Close, Wednesday, October 6, 2024:
Wednesday, November 6, 2024, 8:52 am ET With a total of 286 electoral votes confirmed and only Arizona and Michigan still undeclared, Donald J. Trump has taken back the White House in a stunning repudiation of all the parties and policies aligned against him, including the Democrat censorship and slander machine, mainstream media propaganda, lawfare via spurious prosecutions, and assassination attempts. Though the trend toward Trump was becoming obvious early in the evening, the major news outlets covering the elections were reluctant to award states to Trump, finally conceding to reality when they called North Carolina - the first of the so-called "battleground" states - for Trump around 11:00 pm ET. Early Wednesday morning, the accepted electoral tally is 286 for Trump and 226 for Harris, with Trump leading in the last two states to declare, Arizona and Michigan. Wall street's reaction is incredibly positive, with Dow futures up more than 1300 points, NASDAQ futures up 365, and S&P futures ahead by 130 points an hour prior to the opening bell. It's too early to tell where this incredible victory will lead, but there appears to be generally positive anticipation for a second four years of Trump as president. Gold and silver have taken a major hit on the news, with gold sliding more than $60 to $2,685.60 on the COMEX, and silver down more than four percent at $31.41. While that may seem to be less-than-encouraging for precious metals enthusiasts, a Trump presidency implies more stability in geo-politics and a strong dollar, setting up a delicious buying opportunity for true believers. For the present, Trump's landslide victory, which includes a tally of 70,625,969 to 66,066,277 for Harris in the popular votes, an unexpected development. America has taken back its country. The wrong-headed woke policies of DEI, transgenderism, open borders, disrespect for patriotic citizens, endless wars, and rampant inflation are nearing an end. Happy days!
At the Close, Tuesday, November 5, 2024:
Tuesday, November 5, 2024, 9:27 am ET America has reached the point of no return. After November 5, there will be no more rallies, no more rhetoric, no more political ads, no more voting. There will, however, be more counting of votes, and, because of the perceived "closeness" of the presidential race, the final tallies may not be forthcoming for up to a week after the polls have closed. Meanwhile, life goes on and stocks, bonds, and other assets are bought and sold. Wall Street may appear to be ambivalent concerning which party is in power, which person is president, what policies will be pursued in Washington, D.C., but the reality is that politics matter, and often, matter quite a bit. Wall Street and the corporations representing investments prefer politicians and policies that are less prone to legislate, regulate, and tax them into oblivion. It's often noted that Wall Street prefers gridlock in Washington, with parties split between the legislative and executive branches, so that the politicians are effectively neutered, keeping new laws and regulations to a minimum. What they get from the people to whom they pledge support in 2024 is essentially on the ballot today. Without dwelling on the minutia of the election outcomes, as a nebulous financial scorekeeper, Wall Street probably cares more about economic conditions and Fed decisions than any legislation congress conjures up. To that end, investors want to stay at arms' length from Washington, letting their wishes be known through lobbyists. As the votes roll in and the tally taken over the next few days, there's more likely to be relief that the silly season is concluding than panic over who won and why. To that end, much of the focus will be on earnings reports, and there were a few of them after the close Monday and prior to the opening bell Tuesday. Monday's trading consisted largely of treading water and taking some of the froth off the top. Some of that was led by shares of Berkshire Hathaway being sold off roughly two percent. Warren Buffett's company has recently been selling off shares of two market leaders, Bank of America (BAC) and Apple (AAPL), and if Warren Buffett senses weakness, astute speculators usually take notice and they did. BRK.A and BRK.B both reported numbers that were better than expected, though down sequentially and from year-ago periods. Buffett is also sitting on a record pile of cash, some $325 billion, suggesting the Oracle of Omaha thinks stocks are overvalued and is sidelining enough money to make significant acquisitions, anticipating a market downturn. It's not hard to envision a correction. Equity markets have been on quite a tear for over a year. Constellation Energy (CEG) was a different story, the company stopped in its tracks on its plans to supply energy to an Amazon data center by regulators after reporting strong third quarter results. Shares were slaughtered, down more than 12 percent on Monday. Hotelier Marriott International (MAR) reported solid results, but the stock, which has been up significantly since early August, got trimmed by a little more than 1.5 percent in what looks like pure profit-taking. YUM China (YUMC) was a winner, with third quarter revenue and profit both exceeding expectations. Shares bounced higher by seven percent on Monday. Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Progressive Insurance (PGR), Dollar Tree (DLTR), and Palantir (PLTR) reported after the close Monday. Wynn missed on both top and bottom lines. Shares are down two to three percent pre-market. Shares of Dollar Tree (DLTR) were gaining about four percent pre-market after the company disclosed that CEO Rick Dreiling was stepping down due to heath concerns while the company re-affirmed its fiscal third quarter forecast. Progressive (PGR) reported EPS of $3.59, which was eight cents short of estimates. Investors gave the company a pass, with shares up two percent in pre-market trading. Palantir (PLTR) was a penny better than estimates, at 0.10, the stock getting a 17% boost before the bell. Futures are slightly elevated across the board, gold and silver are bid, the 10-year bond is hovering around 4.32%. Markets appear anxious to get the elections over with and move past the nasty rhetoric of the past two years. Most of the investor class is betting on a Trump victory, Republicans taking control of the Senate and retaining their slight edge in the House. Let's go.
At the Close, Monday, November 4, 2024:
Sunday, November 3, 2024, 11:17 am ET With just two days to Election Day, Americans are on pins and needles, as the media continues to harp on polling data that shows the presidential election too close to call. Ditto the House, though the Senate appears headed toward a slim (51-49 or 52-48) majority, meaning that in the case of a Trump victory, not a single Senator could be spared to serve in his administration. There may or may not be wiggle room in the House. All asset classes seemed to have a case of the jitters the past week, with wild swings in everything from tech stocks to crypto to gold and oil. Investors are likely to feel a bit queasy over the ups and downs. With the elections followed in close order by the November FOMC meeting (Wednesday, Thursday, November 6, 7) the week ahead figures to be one of the more tumultuous in recent memory. The most prudent action may turn out to be none at all, as much of what transpires over the next seven days is probably going to be more of the noisy variety than indicative of any kind of signal.
The majors were all down for the week, and would have been worse had it not been for the enthusiasm seen on Friday after the BLS released October's Non-farm Payroll data, showing a mere 12,000 jobs created over the past 31 days. The Dow was the least affected, the NASDAQ took the hardest hit, down 1.50%. Dow Transports were magically transcendent, up 1.53% for the week, living in a world of its own. In addition to the elections and the Fed meeting, there will be more earnings reports adding to the general state of confusion. Monday: (before open) Constellation Brands (CEG), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), Marriott (MAR), Yum China (YUMC); (after close) Cliffs (CLF), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Progressive Insurance (PGR), Palantir (PLTR). Tuesday: (before open) Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Apollo (APO); (after close) Devon Energy ((DVN), Kinross Mining (KGC). Wednesday: (before open) Toyota (TM), Teva Pharma (TEVA), CVS Health ((CVS), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Six Falgs (FUN); (after close) Hecla Mining ((HL), Qualcomm (QCOM), Mercado Libre (MELI), Pinterest (PINS). Thursday: (before open) Hershey (HSY), Halliburton (HAL), Moderna ((MRNA), Barric (GOLD); (after close) Rivian (RIVN), Air B&B (ABNB), DraftKings (DKNG) Friday: (before open) Sony (SONY), NRG (NRG), Bloomin' Brands (BLMN)
Bond vigilantes continued to sell everything with duration longer than one year, especially at the long end of the yield curve, with yield on the 10-year note gaining another 12 basis points and the 30 year up an additional six, both at the highest levels since June. Spreads reflected the movement toward normalization. 2s-10s maintained the status quo at +16, while the full spectrum from 30 days out to 30 years was squeezed from -54 two weeks ago, to -38 last week, all the way up to -18, the smallest negative figure since the yield curve fully inverted nearly two years ago (November 17, 2022, 30-day, 3.93%; 30-year, 3.89%. As the Fed rate hikes took effect, by Thanksgiving and Black Friday of 2022 (November 24-25) the 30-day bill yielded 4.16%, the 30-year bond at 3.74%, a spread of -42 basis points. By the end of the week, the yield curve had essentially become more or less flat, with the highest yield at the 30-day level (4.75%) and the lowest the 3-year note, 4.18% a spread of just 57 basis points or 0.50%, hardly the kind of spread at which any banker can make money. The fluctuation in yields and the flattening of the curve overall is going to produce stress in the financial markets, which has been obviated in both stocks and fixed income recently. How it all shakes out is anybody's guess, but it appears to be a negative for regional banking operations. Larger banks, those on the national or international level, will be pressured, but should be able to survive - and possibly thrive - under such conditions. It's a crap shoot at this point. The FOMC meets right after the election, on November 6 and 7, with the rate policy announcement on the 7th. Election results may still not be settled in a few states, leaving the Fed in a condition of uncertainty, but not regarding their direction, which is lower, especially after the October jobs report - the worst in four years - showed a gain of just 12,000 and negative numbers in the private sector, real signs of a recession with tight employment conditions. Back-of-the envelope calculus continues to check 30-day bills around 4.15%, 2-year notes at 4.25-4.35%, 10-year notes at 4.40-4.50% and the 30-year bond, the bedrock of the reserve currency, at 4.50 to 4.70%, closing off the inversion of the yield curve by January 20, 2025 and the inauguration of a new president. Spreads:
2s-10s
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
WTI crude oil prices fell again, closing at $69.33 on Friday, down from $71.69 on October 25. Oil seems to rise and fall on what's occurring in the Middle East, which seems to be somewhat subdued, for now. No telling what happens after the elections in the U.S. Gasbuddy.com reports the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.07 a gallon, a drop of four cents from last week. California continues to lead pricing, at $4.50 a gallon, down a nickel from last Sunday. In Pennsylvania, prices were slightly lower, at $3.31, with the Keystone State remaining the price leader in the Northeast, though close to the lowest level in 18 months. New York remained subdued, at $3.15. Connecticut ($3.04) and Massachusetts ($3.03) were about the same, while Maryland prices fell another eight cents, to $3.05 per gallon. Prices in the Midwest continue to decline, with Illinois - just above $4.00 two months ago - down another four cents this week, to $3.24 Sunday morning. Fuel prices in Oklahoma ($2.57) are now the lowest in the nation edging out Texas ($2.58), while Mississippi, at $2.61, ranks third-lowest. Florida ($3.00) remains the outsider, with all Southeastern states well below $3.00. Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in at least 22 U.S. states, mostly in the Southeast and Midwest, but now including New Jersey, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Iowa, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, and Ohio. Arizona, at $3.21, remained below $4.00 for a 26th straight week, leaving only California above $4.00. Washington checked in at exactly $4.00. Oregon is at $3.59 and Nevada at $3.74, both lower for the week. Utah ($3.26) and Idaho ($3.25) were both lower on the week and remain well off summer highs.
This week: $67,659.79 A daily reach at $72,815.78 was hailed as a new high for bitcoin, even though some charts (Google) point to $73,096.85 on March 13, so, possibly a record on an intraday basis, but, as indicated via Yahoo Finance's historical data, with the high of 73,577.21 on October 29 lower than the 73,750.07 high for March 14, it wasn't. So, no, crypto-kiddies, your dreams of retiring early will remain on hold for now. Bitcoin does however remain atop the asset leaderboard, up 53.01% year-to-date.
Gold:Silver Ratio: 84.28; last week: 81.30 Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 10/4: $2,673.20
Silver price 10/4: $32.44 Gold and silver were taken lower by the usual suspects at the COMEX and LBMA, as if there were economic conditions to warrant selling of precious metals in exchange for fiat currencies when none actually exists. There simply is no reason to sell gold or silver at this juncture unless one is an active dealer or needs to convert to dollars, euros, yen, yuan, or pounds to facilitate other hard asset purchases (vehicles, machinery, real estate). Central banks continue to hoard gold as a Tier 1 asset, sovereign wealth funds are actively, and, for the most part, surreptitiously acquiring gold for their coffers as the use of dollars in international trade and as a respected reserve currency continues to wane. Gold has become the de facto settlement currency for BRICS+ countries and their partners, which, at the conclusion of the annual summit, now numbers 13 (Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam). In addition to the five original BRICS and the four added last year (Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE) total bloc countries now numbers 22, with a minimum of 40 more seeking either full membership or partner status. BRICS also facilitates trade with countries not officially aligned by using native currencies for trade, eliminating the need for dollars completely. The process of de-dollarization has gathered significant momentum over the past two years and is likely to accelerate the end of dollar-denominated trade in Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and the Pacific Rim. Europe, the U.S., and UK Commonwealth nations continue to be isolated from major producer countries with inroads to Latin America being developed. The multi-polarity that has been the goal of BRICS finance ministers is being developed at a reasonable pace. Silver continues to outpace gold on a year-to-date basis, though it's very close, silver up 36.45%, compared to 32.59% for gold. Silver stackers remain anxious over the fact that while gold has continued to set new highs throughout 2024, silver has lagged, still below $50, though that target may become more reachable in coming months. The political conditions that prevail following the U.S. elections will likely have a large impact on prices for both gold and silver. Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) was down sharply this week, at $40.66, a decline of $1.47 from the October 27 price of $42.13 per troy ounce. Premia on silver and gold continue to reflect sufficient demand, bordering on manic levels. The most in-demand gold coins are American Gold Eagles (AGE) and American Buffaloes with prices for either well above $2,850. Silver bars were slightly more in demand than silver coins, continuing to support high prices for average and median one ounce finished silver. WEEKEND WRAP Two days. Consequences.
At the Close, Friday, November 1, 2024:
For the Week:
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