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Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.
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Longest Government Shutdown Ends; Gold, Silver Soaring Thursday, November 13, 2025, 9:21 am ET
Counting Wednesday, the longest-ever U.S. government shutdown lasted 42 days, ended after the House rubber-stamped the amended continuing resolution (CR) sent back to them by the Senate, which will keep the lights on until January 30. Some areas were separately funded through what's being called a "minibus", which will guarantee funding for the Department of Agriculture (which administers SNAP, aka food stamps), FDA, military construction, veterans affairs and the legislative branch through Sept. 30, 2026 and also includes a reversal of federal layoffs that the Trump administration executed during the shutdown. It's worth pointing out that most Democrats in the Senate and the House voted against the measures, which illustrates just how divided the parties are in Washington. The political posture on both sides has become almost dogmatic. Views on how best to operate the government for the good of the American people - or whatever else they may have in mind - are skewed violently by ideology. Six House Democrats — Reps. Jared Golden (D-ME), Adam Gray (D-CA), Don Davis (D-NC), Henry Cuellar (D-TX), Tom Suozzi (D-NY) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA) — and two House Republicans — Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY) and Greg Steube (R-FL) — broke with their caucus on the vote. The votes of Cuellar and Suozzi stand out. They are tools of the deeper state and do the bidding of their supporters and donors rather than representing their local constituencies. That's just how business gets done in D.C.; all it takes is a few sheep straying off the meadow. No doubt there will be finger-pointing and endless recrimination in the Democratic caucus. Getting on to the business of business, the Dow Industrials have been bid to record highs the past two days while the S&P and, more so, the NASDAQ, have taken a snooze. While the Senate was busy playing footsie the past week, the AI narrative has come under pressure, as more and more analysts are sounding the alarm over enormous sums of money pledged to build out data farms and associated power plants to spread a technology that so far has been short on results, both in its application and revenue production. Questioning of the financial super-structure underpinning the massive AI rollout has led to recent declines in Mag7 and AI-related stocks. META Platforms (Facebook) has been the hardest hit; others are only slightly below all-time highs. As the opening bell approaches, stock futures are sliding. Dow futures are off 105; NASDAQ futures down 95, and S&P futures lower by 20 points. Could this be a case of "buy the rumor, sell the news" concerning the shutdown? Brighter prospects appear for precious metals, which have been on a tear since Monday morning. Silver is up more than 10%, hitting a high on spot markets this morning of $54.45. Gold has been bid as high as $4245.60 this morning. WTI crude oil was smacked back down into the 50s, hitting a low of $58.22 late Wednesday, but has rallied this morning above $59.
At the Close, Wednesday, November 12, 2025:
Wednesday, November 12, 2025, 9:25 am ET There is widespread optimism that the U.S. government will resume normal operations, as members of the House of Representatives return to Washington, after nearly two months of loafing in their home districts or vacationing on the taxpayer's dime. While that development may be encouraging, especially to the 42 million Americans waiting for their monthly stipend of food stamps to arrive. Payments have been stalled as the Agriculture Department first ran out of money, then discovered it had contingency funds but wasn't allowed ot use them. After that two separate district courts ordered the Trump administration to disperse the funds, which would ostensibly only cover about 65% of the normal allotment. Since then, last week, there's been no movement, as now, fully benefits are likely to be restored. Any day now. While Wall Street focuses on the government re-opening story there's a few no so "feel-good" issues developing. Bloomberg reports that China abruptly halted its promised buying of 12 million tons of soybeans this year, with farmers saying there haven't been any purchases since an initial rush of orders in October, following President Trump's "deal" with China for this year and 25 million tons each year for the next three years. The U.S.S. Gerald R. Ford, the world's largest aircraft carrier, along with its entourage of battleships, destroyers, fighter jets and a nuclear sub, has entered Caribbean waters and is steaming toward the coast of Venezuela, the maneuver designed to frighten Presidente Maduro into resigning and/or give up vast reserves of its oil to American producers. Meanwhile, two Russian naval ships, the frigate Admiral Gorshkov and the oil tanker Akademik Pashin, recently docked in Venezuela's La Guaira port after conducting exercises in the Atlantic Ocean. Good thing the government is open. Those sailors and airmen like to get paid. In finance land, BlackRock recently wrote down $150 million in lending by one of its affiliates on loans to failed companies, Broadband Telecom and Bridgevoice. Additionally, BlackRock zeroed out $150 million loan to home improvement firm, Renovo. The company has filed Charter 7 bankruptcy, liquidating its assets. Hey, but, AI, right? Gonna save the world. Plates are still spinning...
At the Close, Tuesday, November 11, 2025:
Tuesday, November 11, 2025, 9:11 am ET Who knew that reopening the government was such a great thing? Apparently, allowing congress, the president, and the enormous bureaucracy to get back to the business of bankrupting the country and continuing to devalue the currency has plenty of backers, including, not just Wall Street stock market enthusiasts, but hoarders and stackers of precious metals as well. With the Senate apparently on course to resolve the shutdown dynamics and keep the lights on until at least the end of January, the federal government should be back humming right along as early as today if House Speaker Mike Johnson can assemble enough members for a quorum and a vote on the cosmetic changes to the continuing resolution they passed back in September. There are some added details, such as reversing President Trump's firings of furloughed workers along with back pay, a 'minibus' that would fund military construction, the VA, the legislative branch, agriculture, and the FDA, funding for food stamps (SNAP) through fiscal 2026 (September 30, 2026), and a promise to vote on extending Obamacare subsidies sometime in December. The general consensus among the punditry is that the Democrats caved once food riots didn't take place, but the nation's airlines began to suffer delays and cancellations at various important destinations. It wasn't a complete takedown, however. The only Democrats willing to cross the aisle and make a deal were those not running for re-election in 2026.
The breakdown:
Dick Durbin and Jeanne Shaheen are retiring. Fetterman and Cortez Masto aren't up for re-election until 2028. The remaining four aren't up for re-election until 2030. Surely, their constituents and donors will have completely forgotten about this episode of putting pragmatism over politics by then. So, with a whimper, the longest government shutdown in America's glorious history will end roughly around the same time as World War I, on the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month, or, something like that. Positive prospects for the re-opening of the government pushed stocks forward, but were surprisingly bullish for gold and silver. Gold was up more than $140 on the day, with silver advancing more than four percent, with spot prices rising from $48.33 to $50.50. Both metals are higher Tuesday morning, as the reality of a resumption of overspending by congress strikes home. With stocks having recovered most of the losses from last week in one fell swoop, traders may be taking a break on Tuesday. Stock futures are lower for the NASDAQ and S&P, Dow futures showing a slim gain of less than 20 points as the opening bell approaches. Crude oil prices are slightly higher, but WTI continues to gravitate towards $60/barrel or lower. Good news for home heaters and auto drivers. So, with the shutdown apparently nearing an end and the AI blowout having reached terminal madness, what will they think of next to get the muppets to buy more stocks?
At the Close, Monday, November 10, 2025:
Sunday, November 9, 2025, 1:21 pm ET Stocks were being sold off like ten-cent tarts at a church bake sale Friday, until heavy-handed market manipulators came to their rescue, turning what looked to be a washout into a minor loss on the NASDAQ and a plus-side finish on the Dow and S&P. Not that this was the first time stocks reversed course or at all unusual. The practice of pumping stocks when they seem to be falling into a void has been a feature of equity exchanges in Europe and the U.S. for decades. The practice of "supporting your stock" is as old as the 1929 crash and puts the lie to what are supposed to be "free and fair" markets. The harsh reality is that there's absolutely nothing free nor fair about equity markets. They are controlled by the biggest banks and brokerages, giant holding companies like Berkshire-Hathaway, BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street, and given additional support by the New York Fed's trading desk, the government's Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) and the President's Working Group on Financial Markets (colloquially known as the Plunge Protection Team, or PPT), created by President Reagan after the 1987 stock market crash. Individual investors that haven't been bankrupted by the antics of the big money rollers can only hope to pick stocks they believe will do well and go along for the ride. Fundamentals and valuations have not mattered for a very long time. The ultimate goal of the stock market insiders is to keep stocks going higher and higher, and to keep everybody in the game by projecting strength and vitality in American - and European - enterprise. Friday's "dip and rip" was just another in a long history of sudden reversals. It should be noted that stocks almost never make similar moves off highs intra-day. In other words, stocks don't normally zoom up and then reverse to the downside. That goes against the narrative and doesn't benefit the financial industrial complex that controls Western economies. Stock markets are inexorably tied to nations, as if the health and wealth of mega-corporations are the only things that matter. It's complete bull hockey and probably will never end. The Federal Reserve pumps money into financial markets on a regular basis and the entire structure of the Western financial system has become dependent on keeping stocks elevated and going forever higher and higher, just as the purchasing power of the underlying currencies - euros, pounds, dollars, yen - collapses. As hyper-inflation becomes embedded into daily life, expect stocks to just fly to new levels of exhilarating excess. It happened in Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe. It will happen in Europe, Japan, the UK, and the United States. It's nearly a mathematical certainty and why short-sellers regularly are carried out on stretchers during the rare, brief downturns in the markets. There hasn't been an actual bear market since 2008, which, incidentally, was when the entire global financial system imploded for good. Since then, it's just been fraud after fraud, control freaks freaking and geeking, and stocks to the moon. Meanwhile, the economies of Western nations have been crumbling. Standards of living have fallen. Housing has become unaffordable. Food costs are now threatening to bankrupt the middle class. Wealth disparity is at levels never seen before, not during the gilded age, the 1920s, or any other time in recorded history. The top 10 percent of the population in the U.S. owns 87% of all stocks. 42 million Americans are on food assistance (SNAP) and the government is doing its level best to deprive them of that. The average interest rate on credit cards is now 24%, but, corporations can borrow at 3-5% and banks, well, 0.50%. Outstanding student loans are now $1.8 trillion. Those loans are federally-mandated and federally administered, but, college degrees, outside of engineering and the sciences, are virtually worthless. The same federal government has decreed that those loans are not dischargeable in bankruptcy. Thank Bill Clinton for that. Not choosing sides, the current government shutdown is now in its 40th day, the longest in history. The whole thing is a psy-op. Both sides, both parties were in on it from the start. The goal, whatever it may be, is probably not going to be to the liking of most Americans. The government is conditioning the populace for something bigger, much like they did with COVID. Maybe martial law. Maybe something worse. On the Sunday talk shows, not a word was spoken about the delayed SNAP funding. That 42 million Americans rely on government aid in order to eat is a national disgrace, but, the government conditioned these people, over generations in some cases, to expect a monthly stipend, a hand-out, and now it's been delayed and soon will be denied. Meanwhile, reducing air traffic by 10% borders on a national disaster according to the media. Oh, people can't travel? Boo-hoo. Try not eating for a few days and see how that works out. If you're not already fully disgusted with the U.S. congress and the entirety of the federal government - the president and the courts included - you're either willfully ignorant, probably suffering from TDS or normalcy bias that is keeping you from seeing the reality of the situation. The U.S. government, like the government in the UK, EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, and elsewhere, isn't there to protect or enforce your rights or to provide for the general welfare of the people. These governments are there to feed off your wealth, to impoverish you for the benefit of the elected officials and the donor class, to further the beaurocracy,and to keep the open wage and tax slave plantation operating. It's as simple as that. Wake the F-- up. Financialization has destroyed Europe, the UK, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia, and the United States. The BRICS are thriving while Western nations shrivel up and die. Deal with it. Stocks The Friday dip and flip kept stocks from suffering severe damage, scaring investors, and possibly causing further flight from the AI bubble, tech bubble, all-stocks-all-the-time bubble. What caused stocks to turn on a dime and head higher was purported to be some kind of deal in the Senate to end the government shutdown. Even though the news was out by 2:00 pm ET that the Republicans had rejected the Democrats' proposal without so much as a vote, stocks continued to rally through the end of the session. The Democrat proposal to vote for to fund the government if the Republicans agreed to a one-year extension of Obamacare tax credits wasn't even close. It was more theatrics. There was nothing real about the Friday afternoon rally. It was 100% fake. On Friday, the Dow was down more than 400 points just after noon, but rallied to finish 74 points to the upside. The S&P had dropped 89 points. It closed up eight. The unlucky NASDAQ was down 490 points. It closed down 49, effectively cancelling out 90% of the day's losses. It was an object lesson in the lie of free markets and the financial equivalent of saving face in front of the whole world. Generally speaking, stocks are so wickedly overvalued only those with a vested interest in keeping their valuations at nose-bleed levels for their own satisfaction should own them. People who hold them in 401k plans or otherwise should run, full speed, away from these corrupt markets and nver look back. Going along for the free ride is only going to end in tears and recriminations. For anybody still interested, a number of stocks will be reporting third quarter earnings this coming week. While that's all well and good, whatever profits or losses are reported should bear in mind that the longer the government shutdown extends, the more horrific will be fourth quarter results. Keep in mind that the first estimate of third quarter GDP was not reported as it usually is, on the last Thursday of October, because the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis isn't working because of the shutdown. Thus, there's no indication of whether the third quarter was good, bad, or indifferent. It was probably bad, which is yet another reason the government chose to shut itself down. After a while, it should begin to become obvious that the government shutdown isn't about funding the government for another few weeks or subsidies for families stuck in the (un)Affordable Care Act maelstrom. It's about taking a wrecking ball to everything the government touches and turns into fecal matter. This is a shutdown unlike others. Americans better get used to not relying on Uncle Sam to be there in times of need or even in normal times. Normal has been eliminated. There is no normal. There is only chaos, sown by the government to the detriment of the people. The government and the propaganda mainstream media want the public to believe that reopening the government will be an improvement over it being shut down when the exact opposite is true. The government and its $38 trillion in debt needs to be permanently put to rest, power returned to the states and to the people. Holding faithfully onto financial assets, as opposed to hard assets like silver, gold, machinery, self-owned business assets, and real estate (which is actually only rented from the government - see your local tax bill), is sheer lunacy. Here are the big, publicly-owned (where 1 share equals 1/10,000,000,000th ownership or worse) companies reporting in the week ahead: Monday, November 10: (before open) Instacart (CART), Vonage (VG), Barrick (B); (after close) Plug Power (PLUG) Tuesday, November 11: (before open) Orla Mining (ORLA); (after close) Oklo (OKLO) Wednesday, November 12: (before open) Autolus (AUTL), Innovis Technologies (INVZ); (after close) Cisco Systems (CSCO) Thursday, November 13: (before open) Walt Disney (DIS), Canadian Solar (CSIQ), JD.com (JD), Gambling.com (GAMB); (after close) Applied Materials (AMAT), Beazer Homes (BZH). Don't expect life in the United States to improve, though stocks may rally - or not - despite your personal pessimism. At this stage of the game, virtually anything is possible. Treasury Yield Curve Rates
Honestly, interest rates don't really matter much under current conditions unless you're an active bond trader and they are subject to tinkering by the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department exercising what might be called "yield curve control" or YCC. The separate bodies can work in unison to achieve certain results. Under the current regimes, there is an ongoing attempt to lower rates, though the long end, dominated by so called "bond vigilantes" has not complied, with rates moving higher even in the face of back-to-back FOMC rate cuts. The Fed has surrendered its integrity and continues to be torn between saving the economy and saving the currency. It is currently losing on both fronts. The general economy is in tatters and the currency has lost 98% of its purchasing power since 1913. The rising spreads are indicating expectations for improving financial conditions, but a return of high inflation along with it. For what it's worth, 2s-10s spreads expanded to +56 while full spectrum ripped up to +69, matching a double high in June. The instant indication is toward improvement in business conditions along with inflation at the consumer and producer level. Regionals banks are finding out how fragile their commercial real estate portfolios are with defaults and write-downs on financed real estate continuing to escalate. Spreads:
2s-10s
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years) Oil/Gas WTI crude closed out the week at $59.84, a $1.04 decline from last Friday's close of $60.88. Futures were lower every day except Friday, catching a tailwind from the stock-buying binge. Remember how Russia was going to suffer from the new sanctions on their two biggest oil companies? That's all been relegated to the trash heap of history. The U.S. and Europe don't actually control any markets anymore. The BRICS, especially India, China, Russia, Iran, and increasingly, Indonesia, are taking hold of the global economy and shaping it to their liking. The U.S. national average for gas at the pump was up a nickel, to $3.07, according to Gasbuddy.com, though that number would appear to be an anomaly. Gas prices should continue to decline the longer the government shutdown continues, the economy contracts, and demand is slashed. California remains the priciest, at $4.71 per gallon, up five cents, followed by Washington ($4.24), lower by another five cents on the week. Oregon ($3.81), was down another four cents. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Mississippi sharing the low price point at $2.53. Tennessee ($2.56) and Texas ($2.58) follow. The remaining Southeast states are all below $2.84 (Florida). In the Northeast, prices were higher. All except New Hampshire ($2.93), Rhode Island ($2.97) and New Jersey ($2.99) were at or above $3.00, with Pennsylvania ($3.24) easily the highest. New York and Maryland are the closest ($3.11). In the midwest region, Illinois ($3.27) was joined in the $3.00+ club by Indiana ($3.02), West Virginia ($3.05), Ohio ($3.07), and Michigan ($3.11). At the low end were Colorado ($2.68) and Missouri ($2.72). Sub-$3.00 gas was reported in 28 states, a sharp drop of seven from last week. Bitcoin
This week: $103,678.70 In case the diamond-handed haven't noticed, bitcoin first crossed over $100,000 in early December of last year. Those who bought at levels above $103,000, have made no gains for the past 11 months, and are, instead, losing bitcoin. All of crypto will eventually be discarded. It only serves the master-slave arrangement as a ready depository for dodgy funds and criminal activity, much of which is carried out by banks and governments. Bitcoin hasn't been legal tender in El Salvador since February of this year and isn't legal tender anywhere else, except maybe the Maldives or Pago-Pago or places where nobody actually lives. With liquidity becoming a real issue, bitcoin and other cryptos will be sold off for greenbacks and stocks, but the smart money will go into gold and silver. Precious Metals Gold:Silver Ratio: 82.76; last week: 82.16 Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 10/10: $4,035.50
Silver price 10/10: $47.51
SPOT:
Silver 10/17: $51.88
(Kitko)
Silver 10/19: Bid: $51.86; Ask: $51.98 Gold and silver were under pressure, though not significantly. Gold remains stuck right around $4,000, and silver just below $50. As most hardened advocates of hard money understand, patience equals prosperity. These levels provide solid entry points for accumulation of real money. Eventually, prices will not be expressed in dollar amounts, but in ounces, which is all that matters. It's fairly evident that the gold stored in Fort Knox and elsewhere in the United States is not unencumbered, having been lent out and re-hypothecated quite frequently over the past 80-odd years. The United States has not added to its gold stores in many, many years and will soon reap what it has sown. In terms of ounces of gold and silver held by the government, businesses, and individuals, Western nations are among the poorest on the planet. This fact will become self-evident in coming years. The current government shutdown is merely a symptom of the underlying monetary problem of fiat currency and fractional reserve banking, which are failing. Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) gained positive ground over the week, to $56.66, a gain of 48 cents from the November 2nd price of $56.18 per troy ounce. The small-denomination, physical market continues to add premia to, and depart from, spot. WEEKEND WRAP This quote by Samuel Adams seems an appropriate way to wrap up this week in the evolving Age of Delusion. “If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen.”
At the Close, Friday, November 7, 2025:
For the Week:
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