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Weekly Survey of Gold and Silver Prices
Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark
Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.
PRIOR COVERAGE:
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Friday, January 24, 2025, 8:47 am ET It's been a solid week for stocks, as markets navigated the first week of the second Trump presidency. Largely devoid of economic data releases, the four-day week, shortened by Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday, was devoted to speculating on how Trump and his economic policies would pan out over the coming months and years. The decision was largely a positive one, the major indices posting sizable gains Tuesday through Thursday. As of Thursday's close, the Dow was up some 1,077 points on the week, the NASDAQ ahead by 423, and the S&P broke through to a new record close, up by 122 points over the three-day span. Stock market gains the past two weeks broke out of a downtrend that began in December. All of the majors are up on the year, putting a positive spin on future developments, though it's still too early to call the movement a long-term trend. It appears likely that stocks will continue to bound higher despite lofty valuations. The major U.S. stock indices have been in rally mode since late October of 2023, an uptrend that's been in place for more than 14 months. Unless there's some dramatic shift or world-altering event occurring on Friday, stocks are poised to close out the week giddy over prospects for the U.S. economy. In a 46-minute presentation Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump addressed an audience at the World Economic Forum (WEF) and fielded a number of questions from selected panelists.
The tone was extremely cordial, as opposed to the damning, vitriolic rhetoric used to describe Mr. Trump prior to his re-election as president. Apparently, now that Trump has control over the reigns of power, everybody wants to be his friend. It's actually a welcome change, but also somewhat sickening to see the groveling by Euro-centrist promoters who just months ago were pushing climate change, gay and transsexual lifestyles and comparing Trump to Hitler. What's happened since Trump won the election in November and officially took office on Monday, January 20, is a superficial softening of tones, a rush by elites, billionaires, and leaders of nations to align themselves with the president in hopes that some of his irresistible charisma will rub off on them. It's superficial and disingenuous at best because these same people have been proven over the years to be largely untrustworthy promoters of their own twisted, destructive agendas. One sees the heads of Google, Amazon, Apple, and Facebook all in attendance at Trump's inauguration. Are people supposed to just forget that these same folks used every technology available to smear, , mislabel, censor, and deride President Trump from the time he began his first campaign in 2015 until he won re-election last year, a decade of underhanded, deceitful, and one may say deplorable misdeeds and dirty politics? All of a sudden, they're all playing nice. It would be foolish to trust them to do what's right, having done wrong so often, so completely, and so consistently in the past. As with the oligarch class of technocrats, so too the leadership of the EU and most of its nations. It's possible Trump trusts Russia's Vladimir Putin and China's Xi Jinping more completely than he does the likes of Ursula von der Leyen, Emmanuel Macron, or Justin Trudeau. The unfinished business in Ukraine still needs to be addressed. Trump has intimated that prospects for peace are firmly in Putin's hands, though there's been little to suggest that a ceasefire or peace negotiations are imminent. Russian forces continue to press forward toward the Dnieper river south of Kiev. Control of the Dnieper is paramount as it is the major artery running north to south through the entirety of Ukraine as well as a physical demarkation separating Eastern and Western Ukraine. Commerce and transit on and around the Dnieper are vital to Ukraine's economy. Russia's intention to control the river and cities adjacent to it is a defining factor in any kind of negotiated settlement to the conflict now approaching three years. Trump has expressed a desire to see the conflict come to an end, but it is a complex matter that will require all sides to make concessions, though Russia holds what amounts to a winning hand. How the situation in Ukraine is eventually resolved will have long-term effects on world politics for years to come. Leaders in Europe and the UK still have not conceded defeat to the Russians, though it is obvious that they have an upper hand from a military perspective. As events unfold, it's very likely that the desires of European and UK leaders will be swept aside by a peace negotiated between Russia and the United States, mostly on Russian terms. Trump, a hardened negotiator with decades of experience, knows his position is weak and may possibly concede to Russian demands in order to end the conflict and begin to heal relations between the U.S. and Russia without any input from NATO allies. With U.S. markets set to open within an hour, Dow futures are down 107 points. NASDAQ and S&P futures are essentially flat. Precious metals bounced higher late Thursday into Friday, with gold reaching within $12 of its all-time high at $2,788. Silver is making up for lost time, currently testing $31.50. The high for the week in silver was $31.68 on Wednesday, so it appears that silver, should it follow gold's move, may end the week at what would amount to the strongest weekend close in more than two months. Crude oil continues to stubbornly resist tendencies to price lower. After last Friday's close at $77.39, WTI crude dropped to as low as $74.20 late Thursday, but has rebounded Friday morning to just above $75.00. There's good reason to believe that Trump's directive to "drill, baby, drill" will eventually result in lower prices for crude oil, and all refined products, including jet fuels, unleaded gas at the pump, and diesel. It's been an eventful week, but the lasting effects of new policies and programs coming out of the White House will need time to develop and be digested.
At the Close, Thursday, January 23, 2025:
Thursday, January 23, 2025, 9:00 am ET Stocks kept the momentum going on Wednesday, the S&P posting a third straight day on the uptick. However, the S&P fell just short of making a new record close. While it traded above 6,090 much of the day, the last half hour of the session saw serious selling. Thursday morning's stock futures aren't holding out much hope for a rebound. The post-inauguration high seems to be fading, which would make sense. Not a lot of what President Trump has done in his first three days in office have been particularly stock market favorable. If anything, Trump's first few days might be best characterized as "stock market neutral." Markets are still unaware of what Trump's trade and economic policies will encompass. He's been fairly tight-lipped this first week of his presidency about China, Canada, tariffs, and a host of other issues. Perhaps today's speech to the assembled liberal hangovers at the WEF in Davos will provide some clues. According to Axios and other sources, President Trump will address the World Economic Forum via a virtual broadcast today, Thursday, January 23rd, at 5:00 pm Davos time. Since Davos, Switzerland is six hours ahead of the U.S. in terms of time zones, Trump's address should begin at 11:00 am ET. That's likely to cause markets to slow roll the morning and react to anything the President might say that has impact, but it's more likely that Trump's speech will be mostly rhetorical and devoid of actionable detail. It would be nice if he chided the globe-trotting snobs at WEF over some of their policies concerning Ukraine, the climate change scam, high taxes, and disregard for the rule of law, especially concerning elections. Should be interesting. Outside of President Trump making headlines, a few companies have reported earnings this morning. Maybe the most notable was American Airlines (AAL), which, reported adjusted earnings per share of 86 cents, excluding nonrecurring items, up from 29 cents a share from a year ago. Analysts surveyed by FactSet were looking for earnings of 66 cents a share. Revenue grew to $13.7 billion from $13.06 billion in the same period last year, but the stock is getting slaughtered in pre-market trading, down more than five percent after the company projected a first quarter loss of 20 to 40 cents per share. A half hour before the open, stock futures are trending lower, with NASDAQ futures holding below -100 points, though Dow futures are sporting a modest gain. Gold and silver are down (big surprise!), oil continues to slowly leak lower, and bitcoin has also lost momentum, trading between $101,000 and $102,500.
At the Close, Wednesday, January 22, 2024: Today's note to the wise: Beware of bubble-era stock touters, because, in bubbles, practically anybody can find stocks that are going to go up, even crackpots like Nick Giambruno. Here are some specific stock recommendations made by Nick Giambruno over the past few years: One of his top picks in the Bitcoin mining sector is Hive Blockchain Technologies Ltd. (HIVE). He has highlighted this stock for its potential to outperform Bitcoin itself. Well, it hasn't. In 2021, HIVE hit a high over $26 per share. It's currently trading under $4.00. Uranium Stocks: Giambruno recommended Ur-Energy Inc. (URG) as a potential investment in the uranium sector, anticipating a new bull market. URG is a penny stock. It peaked at $2.00 in February, 2024 and is currently trading at $1.23. Marijuana Stocks: In 2018, Giambruno suggested investing in Canopy Growth Corporation (CGC), which he referred to as the "Amazon of Pot." It's not. Giambruno must have been smoking some good stuff. CGC rocketed to $429 in February, 2021. Today it's trading for $2.23. Defense Supplier Stocks: In 2019, he recommended Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. (KTOS), predicting significant growth due to trade war tensions. In 2019, KTOS traded between $14 and $22 per share. In 2020, it fell to as low as $10, and today is above $34. Giambruno actually did OK with this one, but what stocks haven't doubled since 2020? Nick expects people to shell out a lot of money for monthly picks. He probably gets a few suckers a month to pony up, whch pays the bills and keeps his name out there. Overall, however, he's got no more insight on stocks than the average sixth-grader. Essentially, he's a fraud, and there are many others out there, just itching to get at your money. Don't do it. Educated yourself and make your own choices. Here's a bit of Giambruno's pitch:
Financial Underground: SPECULATOR What a crock.
Wednesday, January 22, 2025, 9:28 am ET With markets closed Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, stock pickers were able to get an in-depth look at the inauguration and first day of Donald Trump's presidency, which included signing of fifty executive orders, various firings and the beginning of mass arrests and eventual deportations of illegal aliens in the U.S. Having a full day to digest the proceedings in the nation's capital provided Wall Street with a solid understanding of what Trump dubbed, "America's Golden Age", and took little time to capitalize on the good vibes coming out of Washington, D.C. Helping fuel the rally were earnings reports from a number of important companies, key among them 3M (MMM), which posted adjusted earnings per share of $1.68, beating estimates. The company also announced that it's restructuring plan was nearly complete. Shares were up more than four percent on the day, hitting its highest level in three years. Capital One (COF) showed profits rising by 55% in the fourth quarter from a year ago. Their interest income growing as more consumers use credit cards issued by the company at nose-bleed interest rates, some as high as 30% or more. Stock brokerage Charles Schwab (SCHW) posted better-than-expected results on higher asset management fees and a surge in trading volume. The company's stock was up sharply from Friday's close. Adding to the excitement Wednesday morning were spectacular earnings reports from Netflix (NFLX), which announced Tuesday morning EPS of $4.27 for the fourth quarter, above consensus expectations of $4.18 and more than double the $2.11 EPS figure it reported in the year-ago period. Shares of the streaming service are up 14% in pre-market trading. United Airlines (UAL) and CapitalOne (COF) also posted strong fourth quarter and full year results prior to the open, sending stock futures skyward. Dow futures are trending up about 160 points, NASDAQ futures sporting a gain of more than 200 points. S&P futures are ahead by 32 points. The S&P is at its highest level in a month, closing in on its all-time record close of 6,090.27 from December 6, 2024. Bitcoin hit above $108,000 on Tuesday before pulling back to above $104,000. Gold is approaching its own record level, hovering around $2,770. Silver continues a laggard, though it is trending above $31/ounce. WTI crude oil ($75.69) got smacked down on Trump's enthusiastic massaging to "Drill, baby, drill." Golden Age, indeed.
At the Close, Tuesday, January 21, 2025:
Sunday, January 19, 2025, 11:16 am ET Stocks jumped the gun on the inauguration with a big week highlighted by CPI from December and bank earnings from the likes of Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup. Big banks appear to be on solid footing with deposits growing and increased M&A activity. Wall Street cheered itself for undercutting inflation forecasts, spurring a wild Wednesday romp with more carryover effects Friday.
Stocks turned in their best week since November, putting January solidly back in positive territory after some early new year jitters. The Dow and NYSE Composite out-performed the S&P and NASDAQ, though all the majors were markedly higher with Wednesday's big rally taking a day off Thursday before returning with gusto on Friday. After two straight years of gains and a new sheriff in town (Trump), Wall Street is desperate to keep the punch bowl filled at all costs. There are uncertainties aplenty, which brings into question the wisdom of big gains just prior to expectations for big changes. Normally, as was demonstrable earlier in January, the stock market hates uncertainty. This week's rally may have been something on the order of a bull trap or a condition of "buy the rumor, sell the news." The coming week will provide more clues to the general direction of stocks, both near and long term. Earnings will be highlighted in the coming week. After the nation's largest banks turned in solid fourth quarters, traders are expected good things through first quarter earnings season, with the bulk of publicly-owned companies reporting over the next three weeks. With Monday a national holiday (Martin Luther King Day), markets will be shuttered Monday. The big names to watch for earnings releases this week are the following: Tuesday: CapitalOne (COF), 3M (MMM), Zions Bancorporation (ZION), DR Horton (DHI), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Netflix (NFLX), United Airlines (UAL) Wednesday: Discover (DFS), Alcoa (AA), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Abbot Labs (ABT), Halliburton (HAL), Ally Bank (ALLY), Proctor & Gamble (PG), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Travelers (TRV), Comerica (CMA) Thursday: American Airlines (AAL), CSX (CXS), McCormick (MKC), Union Pacific (UNP), Covenant Logistics (CVLG), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Friday: Ericsson (ERIC), Verizon (VZ), American Express (AXP) The data calendar is light. Trump's Executive Orders and proclamations from the Oval Office will be the huge focus for the week and probably for many more weeks ahead.
After rising by roughly one percent from when the Fed began lowering the federal funds target rate in September, 2024, longer maturities (2 years out to 30 years) began to backtrack after December CPI showed the core falling short of expectations, even though headline year-over-year CPI has risen the last three months, from 2.4% in September, to 2.6% in October, 2.7% in November, and the latest, 2.9% for December. Wall Street sorely needs January to come in positive, bolstering the concept that January presages the market for the rest of the year. Thus, analysts and stock-pumpers cherry-picked the CPI number, finding one that they liked, ignoring the undeniable fact - provided by their very own number-fudgers at the BLS - that inflation continues to rise overall. Prices are not coming down; they're only rising at a slower pace than recently. It needs to be pointed out that the Fed's ill-advised 100 basis points worth of cuts in September, November, and December, had the expected effect of causing price increases on most goods and services. The Fed, trapped as it is, continues to try to walk the tightrope between keeping the economy chugging along and keeping prices under control. They're actually failing at both. With Trump readying tariffs on almost anything that is imported into the U.S., the Fed and their Wall Street banking cohorts continue to pedal the lie that inflation is under control and the economy is strong. The next three to six months will provide evidence as to whether they are right or lying through clenched teeth. Spreads contracted, with 2s-10s dropping three basis points, and full spectrum (30 days out to 30 years) flattening by 13 basis points, from +54 to +41 over the course of the week. As with stocks, there was some racing to get ahead of the pack prior to the completion of presidential transition on Monday. Whether they were prescient or just plucky will begin to become clear within the first 10 days of Trump's administration. Spreads:
2s-10s
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
WTI crude oil continued to ride higher, finishing out the week at $77.37, up from $75.70 the prior Friday, the fourth straight week of rising price action. Wednesday's CPI reading from December produced most of the rally, hitting a high of $79.14 before backing off Thursday and Friday. This week's jump in oil futures sent oil prices closer to summer levels that peaked above $82/barrel. How well this pric action continues to hold after Monday's inauguration of Donald J. Trump and his "drill, baby, drill" mantra is largely dependent on press attitudes and what comes off the president's desk his first week back in the Oval Office. With a heavy agenda, oil may be left to its own accord, though Trump is very likely to issue Executive Orders to reverse much of what the Biden White House destroyed of oil and capital markets the past four years. Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump up seven cents from last week, checking in at $3.12 a gallon Sunday morning. California continues to be the national price leader, at $4.41 a gallon. Pennsylvania prices jumped eight cents, at $3.34, with the Keystone State the price leader in the Northeast. New York saw a slightly smaller change, at $3.14. Connecticut ($3.07) was up slightly while Massachusetts ($3.01) was higher by just three cents, returning back above the $3.00 threshold. Maryland prices jacked higher by 22 cents, at $3.32. Illinois advanced only two cents, to $3.24. Ohio (#3.11) and Indiana ($3.10) again returned back above $3.00 after just one week below. Mississippi took over as low price leader, snatching the crown from Oklahoma with a price of $2.65, while the Sooner State came in at $2.67. Following are Texas ($2.69), Arkansas ($2.70), and Louisiana ($2.71). Those are followed by Alabama ($2.77), Tennessee ($2.78), Kansas ($2.80), and South Carolina ($2.81). Florida's was up seven cents, at $3.18, Georgia crept closer to $3, showing $2.95 this weekend. Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in only 28 U.S. states. The Northeast and West coast remain largely over-$3.00 holdouts. Arizona ($3.11) was up eight cents from a week ago. Oregon showed prices higher, at $3.49, Nevada at $3.62, and Washington at $3.90, leaving only California above $4.00. Utah ($2.97) and Idaho ($3.01) were both lower for the week.
This week: $105,074.80 Bitcoin moved higher again this week, promoted by some reporting that the incoming Trump administration plans on removing many of the regulations surrounding crypto ownership. With changes afoot at the SEC and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the idea is that with an administration's full embrace of crypto's potential, the United States will become the de facto leader of crypto adoption. In many ways, it already is, though that doesn't prevent the usual suspects from pushing their agenda to extremes, including the concept of the U.S. establishing a "bitcoin reserve". While the idea of the U.S. government becoming huge hodlers of vaporware currency appeals to the baser instincts of the crypto future crowd, it remains to be seen what the U.S. government plans on doing with its money in the face of exploding national debt and a debased currency. Establishing a new currency standard isn't something the world would take lightly. Basing one on currency that is ethereal, but also highly traceable, as bitcoin and most other cryptos are, seems to be quite the canard, an unworkable direction that leads, ultimately to anathema of the crypto universe, CBDCs. Crypto adherents had better not hope to hard, because they might get exactly what they want, with unexpected attachments and unwieldy consequences.
Gold:Silver Ratio: 88.24; last week: 86.82 Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 12/20: $2,640.50
Silver price 12/20: $30.08 Gold continued it's upside momentum, while silver made impressive gains Wednesday, only to give the bulk of them back, and then some, Thursday and Friday. Judging by activity on eBay, a silver mania is developing, with small fry (average Joes and Janes) evidencing a propensity to throw caution to the wind as they continue stacking and saving for the future and against the corrupt fiat regime they clearly see faltering on multiple fronts, not the least of which are inflation (money creation, currency debasement) and the threat from BRICS in the formation of a global financial duopoly with the U.S. dollar - and by extension, the euro, yen, and pound - taking a beating. Even though stocks had a very good week and are tracking towards a positive bent to the important month of January, precious metals have not backed down much from autumn 2024's highs. Gold is clearly fetching over $2,800 on one-ounce pieces and much higher on a per-ounce basis on fractional coins and bars. Silver, at least near term, has avoided further price deterioration and shortages continue to mount. COMEX prices are one thing. Buying coins and bars at $10 or more over spot indicates a large and growing cohort seeking relief and better accounting for what determines wealth and value. Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose moderately, to $41.91, an increase of 64 cents from the January 12 price of $41.27 per troy ounce.
One more day. Will the nightmare of the last four years vanish in an instant or will there be continued pushback from the open borders, DEI non-conformists as there was in Trump's first term? Hope against hope that the former is the case, but, knowing the depth of depravity that dwells within the deep state, the latter seems more likely.
At the Close, Friday, January 17, 2025:
For the Week:
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