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Weekly Survey of Gold and Silver Prices
Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark
Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.
PRIOR COVERAGE:
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Ominous Patterns Emerging As Stocks Start Off New Year On Wrong Foot; Gold, Silver, Oil Gain Friday, January 3, 2025, 9:35 am ET Bear market patterns have been emerging on the major indices over the past few weeks - specifically, stocks opening strong to the upside only to fall into negative territory later in the day - that indicate a bear market is developing. That is exactly what occurred on the first day of trading in 2025. The Dow was up nearly 350 points in early trading Thursday, but closed down 151 points. The NASDAQ was up more than 200 points early on, but lost ground throughout the session, closing with a small (-30 points) loss. The same was true for the S&P, which was up more than 50 points around 10:00 am ET, then fell 50 points into the red, finally rallying late in the day to register a smallish, 13-point loss. After sprouting solid gains for the first 11 months of 2024, December was a decided departure from the norm, as the major indices were all down for the month, though the high-flying NASDAQ, dominated by the Magnificent 7, was down only marginally. These patterns have been re-appearing on a regular basis and do not bode well for the "January Effect" which posits that "as goes January, so goes the rest of the year. Analysts can pound the table as much as thye like about their year-end projections of stock gains, but the evidence thus far is lacking. Stocks remain wildly overvalued and incoming Trump policies and actions by his chief leiutenants will have profound effects on trading once implemented after January 20. Expect similar results on a regular basis up until the inauguration. After that, stocks could spiral down without much support. Gold, silver, and oil posted gains on January 2, but precious metals are under pressure leading to the opening bell. As usual, stocks are poised for a higher open by equity futures. Oil continues to push forward for no good reason, topping $73.50 in early trading, the highest since mid-October. This being the first Friday of the month, normally non-farm payroll results (December) would be posted. Since the date is so close to the beginning of the month and the past two weeks were interrupted by holidays, the slavish BLS obviously needs more time to fudge the numbers. Tread lightly, and carry a big stick, preferably made of gold or silver (quite heavy).
At the Close, Thursday, January 2, 2025:
Thursday, January 2, 2025, 9:00 am ET 2024 will be remembered as one of the best for Wall Street, as the major indices posted outstanding gains over the 12 months, though the last month was somewhat regrettable and forgettable, with all of the indices lower as participants took profits. Unofficially (using Google Finance's clunky figures), the majors put in the following performances for the year:
While the averages were fairly robust, breadth left much to be desired. The NASDAQ and S&P were led by the "Magnificent 7" stocks, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Meta Platforms (Facebook), Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla, the high-tech darlings that out-performed the rest of the market handily. Nvidia was easily the best, returning profits of 243%, followed by META, with an annual gain of 69%. Microsoft (MSFT) was the real disappointment of the group, up only 13.65% on the year. With 2024 in the books, investors may not be so eager to establish new positions prior to the inauguration of Donald J. Trump as America's 47th president. His policies have yet to be fully fleshed out, and the Donald has been known to surprise and amaze, so there could be some slight trepidation in early January, which usually sets the tone for the remainder of the calendar year. With the opening bell for the first trading session of 2025 an hour away, it does appear that investors are eager to put their money to work. Dow futures are banging higher by 285, NASDAQ futures are +185 to the good, and S&P futures are showing a gain of 41 points. Moves in the futures markets were pumped by the first weekly unemployment figures which showed US unemployment claims falling to 211,000, the lowest level since March. Gold is also bid, at $2,650, though that's $10 lower than it was just moments ago. Silver continues to struggle, but it is also up, hovering near $29.65 in early trading on the COMEX. Players in the oil pits remain undeterred by the current supply glut and demand slack. WTI crude is pricing at $72.69, a 2 1/2-month high. Crypto-crazies are bidding up bitcoin this morning, sending it above $96,000. It traded as low as $91,547 on December 30. It appears that 2025 might just start off gang-busters despite warning signs. There's something for everybody.
At the Close, Tuesday, December 31, 2024:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024, 9:08 am ET Quite a few Wall Street traders must have found their way onto Santa's naughty list, because stocks have been going in the wrong direction for the better part of December. While the Dow peaked on the 4th, the S&P did the same on the sixth, and the NASDAQ topped out on the 16th, they've all been lower since making those all-time highs. Tech lovers in NASDAQ stocks probably aren't too concerned. Despite the loss of 687 points over the past nine sessions, the gains for the rest of the year prior to December were outstanding. The NASDAQ should finish with an overall gain of more than 30% for 2024, the S&P putting in profits of nearly 25% and the Dow lagging behind with a 12-14% rise, which, given market conditions, isn't all that bad. The situation on the Dow may be a bit more concerning. The 30 industrials are down 2,209 points, and are headed toward the December 18 lows, as are both the S&P and NASDAQ. The selling is probably little more than profit-taking, though the pattern suggests January may not be a period in which investors stake out new positions earnestly. With geo-politics in a state of uproar and the Biden-to-Trump transition certain to offer some surprises, a wait-and-see approach could be the operative position, at least until the 20th. As marketeers bid a fond farewell to 2024, the final day of trading finds all equity futures higher, getting a sizable boost at the European open, seeking to put a positive spin on the year's end. The price of crude oil, as measured by WTI, will close out the year roughly where it began, right around $70 a barrel, which appears to be the happy place for producers and a reasonable level for consumers. Precious metals have been whacked hard the last two months, silver especially, having lost nearly half its gains year-to-date since the end of October, though still up 22% on the year. Gold, which hit $2,800 on October 31, has shrunk by nearly $200 since then, currently holding around $2,625, with a year-to-date gain above 26%. Given the late season take-down in PMs, they look like solid investments moving into 2025. Both should regain their prior highs and then some in the coming year. The NYSE and NASDAQ will both close at the regular 4:00 pm ET today. Bond markets close early, at 2:00 pm ET. Money Daily will have a recap of today's trading and full-year final figures on Thursday, January 2nd. Happy New Year!
At the Close, Monday, December 30, 2024:
Sunday, December 29, 2024, 11:56 am ET Friday's bloodbath in equities turned what looked ot be a promising Santa Claus rally into spilt milk and cookie crumbs. Following the dip-buying earlier in the week, stocks tailed off significantly, as profit-taking superseded speculation with just two trading days remaining in 2024. Other than the ugliness of an extended 10-day slump in the Dow earlier in the month and a couple of downside moves in the other majors, unless there's a catastrophe, the year will go into the books as well above average, especially for mega-cap tech stocks like the Magnificent Seven.
As a whole, Friday wiped out gains from the prior sessions of the holiday-shortened week. Next week will be likewise interrupted, closed on Wednesday for New Year's Day and a change of the calendar.
With T-Bills virtually unmoved over the course of the week, spreads continued to blow out toward normalizing the curve structure. 2s-10s improved to +31; full spectrum ballooned out to +38 basis points. In the uncertain environment as presidential administration changes hands, bond buyers are demanding higher yields for longer maturities. Since the election of Donald Trump on November 5, 10-year yields have risen 36 basis points, from 4.26% to 4.62%. 30-year yields are up 38 basis points, from 4.44% to the current 4.82%. In spite of the Fed's seeming reluctance to continue rate cuts at the current pace (0.25% every meeting), 30-day yields remain near the high end of the federal funds rate of 4.25-4.50%, the market expressing reluctance toward looser conditions. Fear of inflation remains top-of-mind for bond participants, sensing that the Fed's policies have been more political than practical and that a complete economic story is not being adequately presented by Fed officials. Spreads:
2s-10s
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
WTI crude oil was ahead slightly, closing at $70.26 Friday, up 68 cents from last Friday's $69.58. Economies that are slowing considerably continue to put pressure on prices. There's ample reason to believe that oil cannot be pricing at anything close to $70/barrel for much longer. Major economies in Europe and China continue to exhibit weakening conditions, while the U.S. has managed to paper over most of its shortcomings with hefty stock gains and a cheerleading financial press in tune with Wall Street snake oil salesmen. Trump's tariffs and his commitment to domestic drilling will only serve to exacerbate the glut conditions in the market. Oil prices are stubbornly holding onto three-year lows, but that plateau of support is waning. Prices could easily deteriorate further from current levels. Oil prices have been under pressure for the past eight months, falling from a peak of $86.91 on April 5. Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump of $3.01 a gallon, a mere two cents down from last week. California continues to be the price leader, at $4.31 a gallon, well below prices prevailing during the summer. Pennsylvania prices stabilized this week at $3.21, with the Keystone State continuing as the price leader in the Northeast. New York was off a penny, at $3.10. Connecticut ($3.02) and Massachusetts ($3.01) were also stable, while Maryland remained below $3.00, staying right at to $2.89 per gallon. Even with holiday travel, prices are remaining close to 42-month lows. Illinois dropped back down from $3.24 to $3.19. Ohio ($2.98) and Indiana ($2.99) slipped below $3.00 Sunday morning. Fuel prices in Oklahoma ($2.52) continue to be the lowest in the nation, despite rising three cents this week. Following are Mississippi ($2.55), Texas ($2.59), Arkansas ($2.61) and Louisiana ($2.62), with Kansas at $2.64, Tennessee at $2.65. Alabama shows $2.69, South Carolina, $2.71, Missouri, $2.75. Florida's descent below $3.00 lasted only a week as the dip to $2.99 did not hold, currently tracking at $3.06 in the Sunshine State. Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in at least 32 U.S. states. The Northeast and West coast remain over-$3.00 holdouts. Arizona ($3.03) dropped another four cents on the week, continuing a long trend. Oregon checked in at $3.41, Nevada at $3.56, and Washington at $3.86, leaving only California above $4.00. Utah ($3.01) and Idaho ($3.06) remain just above the $3.00 threshold.
This week: $94,597.53 Bitcoin continued this week to play Scrooge to its followers, testing down to the $94,000 level. Should bitcoin break below the very limited support shelf between $88,000 and $90,000, the next stop is clearly around $70,000. Bitcoin should continue to correct. It has been its pattern since inception. Boo-hoo, hodlers. Lumps of coal might actually be worth more than your fantasy tokens. At least you can burn them for heat.
Gold:Silver Ratio: 87.50; last week: 87.78 Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 11/29: $2,673.90
Silver price 11/29: $31.10 Prices appeared to be seeking bottoms in both gold and silver trading. A range from $2,570 to $2,610 should provide support for guld. Meanwhile, silver has broken down through support in the $30.50 - $30.60 range, in part because of slowing economies in major industrialized countries, with the possibility of finding secondary support around $28. That's not holding back small stackers on eBay from eagerly snatching up one-ounce finished goods anywhere from $35 to $45 per ounce. Similarly, gold buyers continue to pay $100/ounce premia on small weights, a condition that's more or less persisted since the gold bull run began in 2000. On a percentage basis, a $100 premium on gold over spot amounts to around four percent, not nearly the 30-40% premium on small weight silver. Silver's price is likely radically undervalued by the notorious riggers in the COMEX marketplace. One need look no further than the ridiculous gold:silver ratio, more than five times higher than the U.S. constitutional ratio of 16:1. The extreme ratio has been largely in effect since silver was de-monetized in the U.S. in 1964 and remains near the upper end of the range. Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) was significantly higher, at $40.15, a gain of $2.05 from the December 22 price of $38.10 per troy ounce.
Three days to a new year and 23 days and counting until the Biden years get swept unceremoniously into the dustbin of history. God help us.
At the Close, Friday, December 27, 2024:
For the Week:
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