Weekly snapshot — major averages (close of week)

• S&P 500: 6,836.17
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 49,500.93
• Nasdaq Composite: ~22,546–22,547

Who moved

Notable winners

Examples: Rivian; Coinbase; Fastly; Magna; several small‑cap and energy names posted strong weekly gains.

Notable losers

Examples: Pinterest; DraftKings; Bright Horizons; a number of speculative small caps and episodic weakness in some tech names tied to AI re‑rating.

Oil and gas industry

The oil and gas sector finished the week with mixed signals. Brent traded in the high‑$60s per barrel while WTI sat in the low‑$60s, with prices drifting on a mix of demand concerns and regional supply flows. Producers are balancing higher service costs and capital discipline against still‑solid cash flows. Mergers, production plans, and capital allocation decisions remain sensitive to short‑term price swings and OPEC+ signals. Market commentary this week emphasized inventory data and refinery throughput as the next near‑term drivers for crude.

U.S. gasoline prices

Retail gasoline moved only modestly week‑over‑week. National averages were roughly $2.90–$2.94 per gallon, with regional spreads (the West Coast notably higher) and small weekly upticks in some PADDs. Weekly fuel updates highlighted regional refinery maintenance and seasonal patterns as the main causes of local moves. Expect volatility around refinery turnarounds and any sudden crude swings.

Bitcoin and crypto

Bitcoin regained ground after mid‑week volatility, trading in the low $70k area by the weekend and showing a choppy but constructive weekly pattern. Crypto markets remained sensitive to macro headlines, regulatory chatter, and liquidity into spot and derivatives venues. Trading volumes and on‑chain metrics showed renewed activity, but not yet a broad risk‑on stampede; flows into ETFs and derivatives funding rates were notable drivers of intraday moves.

Precious metals

Gold rallied during the week, hitting weekly highs on a combination of softer inflation signals and risk‑off flows into safe havens. Silver and other precious metals followed, with traders citing the interplay between real yields and dollar moves as the dominant technical driver. Bullion market data showed a clear weekly uptick in prices and demand for hedging exposure.

Fixed income and Treasuries

Yields moved lower overall on softer inflation cues and some weaker economic prints, though the week included spikes tied to stronger‑than‑expected payrolls earlier in the period that briefly pushed yields higher. The 10‑year Treasury traded with intra‑week swings and closed the week reflecting continued uncertainty about the timing and pace of Fed easing. Duration and credit spreads tightened in pockets as investors rebalanced between risk and safety.

General market conditions

Macro data and Fed expectations: Mixed economic prints kept markets oscillating between risk‑on and risk‑off. Stronger payrolls earlier in the week briefly lifted yields and pressured growth and tech names, while softer inflation readings later eased rate‑cut timing bets.

Sector rotation and AI headlines: Debate over the breadth of the AI trade produced sharp moves in software, semiconductors, and adjacent sectors as analysts re‑priced winners and potential losers.

Commodities and FX: Moves in oil and metals fed through to energy and materials stocks; the dollar’s direction amplified moves in gold and crypto.

The week ahead

1. Economic calendar: Watch remaining monthly data such as retail sales and industrial production, plus the next inflation and labor releases — these will steer Fed‑cut expectations and Treasury yields.
2. Earnings and guidance: Corporate reports and management commentary, especially from large tech and AI‑exposed firms, can re‑ignite sector rotations.
3. Energy and refinery updates: Unexpected outages or inventory surprises could move crude and gasoline prices and ripple into energy equities.
4. Crypto flows and regulatory headlines: Monitor ETF flows, derivatives funding rates, and any regulatory announcements that could change liquidity or institutional appetite.

OK, it's far from perfect, but, complete output in a fraction of the time for human production, and that's using a free service. The paid services are much more robust, faster, think deeper, and, with training, produce more robust and useful information.

The essay, Something Big Is Happening, published by Matt Shumer on February 9, caught a lot of people's attention, as did Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman statement that most professional white-collar tasks could be fully automated within the next two years, outlining a timeline that would affect workers across industries, including law, accounting, and marketing.

"I think that we're going to have a human-level performance on most, if not all, professional tasks,” he said. “So white collar work, where you're sitting down at a computer, either being a lawyer or an accountant or a project manager or a marketing person, most of those tasks will be fully automated by an AI within the next 12 to 18 months.”

Having just toyed with AI the past six months or so, I can definitely see what the experts are warning about. As with any new technology, from the automobile, the cotton gin, telephone, or personal computers, there is going to be an adjustment period in affected industries where people lose jobs while other, more creative or resourceful types move up the corporate ladder, companies fail while others thrive and whole sectors are affected.

AI, being massively disruptive in its ability to mirror or even replace human interaction, is, at least, a productivity-enhancing tool. It performs tasks faster than humans can, and, with each improved iteration, it performs those tasks better and with more accuracy. This technology will replace jobs, or, for companies which recognize talent and wish to retain the best, will foment a radical shift in employment and wages. Top performers who can master AI at high levels will be rewarded with huge pay increases or reduced work time. The best human AI manipulators can work remotely or in office, at a relaxed pace, and outperform the 9-to-5 desk jockeys by degrees of magnitude.

Some will be rewarded. Others will become manual laborers, baristas, or fall into extended unemployment. No matter what happens, the disruptions in labor and productivity are going to be profound and long-lasting. AI is not a one-off technology. It has already improved by leaps and bounds, and, if Moore's Law holds sway, the predictions of Matt Shumer and Mustafa Suleyman might actually be on the conservative side of the argument.

AI could, and probably will, advance in proficiency and reliability at an amazingly rapid pace. Anybody who uses a computer for work should right now be brainstorming - with or without the assistance of AI - how to survive the coming upheaval. Finances, lifestyles, and even basic survival skills must be examined to fit into the evolving new world that's being presented by this intrusive, game-changing technology that prioritizes information over human interaction.

The future is going to be magnificent and horrifying at the same time. I'll be presenting more information in the March 2026 feature article on idleguy.com in two weeks.

For now, let's just say, you've been alerted.

Stocks

The NASDAQ suffered its fifth straight weekly loss. The Dow and S&P lost ground for the fourth time n the past five. Clearly, there's been institutional distribution and retail dip-buying at huge scale. Trading volume is roughly double what it was a year ago, and much of that has been on the downside of all-time highs. A suggestion that stocks may have been a bit overcooked could turn out to be the understatement of the year. Valuations are stretched to perfection while companies in a swath of sectors - from consumer discretionary to information technology - are under assault from AI and plain old profit-taking.

A near-term correction would seem likely. The NASDAQ is already down 5.4% from its October 29, 2025 high (23,958.47). Obviously, it has plenty of room to fall.

Markets are closed Monday for Presidents’ Day, but the week ahead offers a raft of economic data, some delayed still by the October government shutdown, starting with Empire State manufacturing (February) on Tuesday. Wednesday's drops include November and December Housing Starts, December Durable-goods Orders, January Federal Reserve FOMC minutes. On Thursday, the U.S. trade balance for December is reported, along with Initial jobless Claims, Retail and Wholesale inventories (December), February Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing and January's Pending Home Sales.

Inflation comes into focus on Friday with the December Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. Also, the first reading of 4th quarer Gross Domestic Product (GDP), S&P flash Purchasing Manager Index, December New Home Sales and Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan.

The week ahead will also feature more earnings reports with Walmart, the only Dow component, reporting Thursday morning:

Monday: President's Day (stock and bond markets closed)

Tuesday: (before open) Vulcan Materials (VMC), Medtronic (MDT), ; (after close) Hecla Mining (HL), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Devon Energy (DVN), Toll Brothers (TOL)

Wednesday: (before open) Bausch & Lomb (BLCO), fiverr (FVRR), Analog Devices (ADI), Garmin (GRMN); (after close) eBay (EBAY), Doordash (DASH), Equinox Gold (EQX), Kinross (KGC), Carvana (CVNA), PanAmerican Silver (PAAS)

Thursday: (before open) First Magestic (AG), John Deere (DE), Walmart (WMT), Klarna (KLAR), Wayfair (W), Yeti (YETI); (after close) Newmont Mining (NEM), Akamai (AKAM), Live Nation (LYV), Texas Roadhouse (TXRH), Opendoor (OPEN), Transocean (RIG)

Friday: (before open) Western Union (WU), Lamar (LAMR), Telix (TLX), Anglo Gold Ashanti (AU)

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

This week's treasury yields reveal more about the stock market than anything else. A flight to the safety of fixed income is clearly underway, with yields of the 10-year note falling 18 basis points and the 30-year bond dipping 16, causing a squeeze in spreads from previously-stretched levels. 2s-10s fell to +64 from +72 last week and full spectrum dropped to +97 from +113.

Spreads and yields are evidence of financial stress which have only recently been prevalent. If anything, the stubbornness of short-dated maturities to budge from the high end of the federal funds target rate (3.50-3.75%) coupled with flattening of the curve suggests a rough path forward. There's no need to be reminded of the Fed's self-imposed entrapment, with inflation still on the mind and the economy straining for momentum. The AI-induced selloff in stocks is likely to continue in fits and starts, but could possibly expand more quickly than many traders assume, which would trigger long maturities even lower, flattening the curve and wiping out profitable spreads.

Nobody makes money in a flat-line situation and that certainly appears to be taking shape. The 10-year yield under 4.00% and the 30-year chasing it down isn't a very competitive structure, especially with foreign buyers on the run. With most analysis seeing the Fed stuck on hold until Kevin Warsh takes over from Jerome Powell in June, a sudden jerk lower in stocks might change some minds in a hurry. The next meeting (March 17-18) is still a month away, so the potential for an emergency cut may grow.

Thursday's big drop on the Dow might have been a sell signal at an institutional level.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2025
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
10/3: +45
10/10: +53
10/17: +56
10/24: +54
10/31: +51
11/7: +56
11/14: +52
11/21: +55
11/28: +55
12/5: +58
12/12: +67
12/19: +68
12/26: +68
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2025
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
10/3: +47
10/10: +43
10/17: +42
10/24: +48
10/31: +61
11/7: +69
11/14: +70
11/21: +68
11/28: +62
12/5: +97
12/12: +109
12/19: +111
12/26: +111
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13" +97

Oil/Gas

WTI crude closed out the week at $60.58, easing back from last week's finish at $63.50 on some slight easing of tensions in the Middle East. Somebody knows something following Israel's Netanyahu visit to D.C., as President Trump's remarks and tweets suggest that negotiations are still possible, though "all options" (war) remain on the table. The U.S. military command realizes that any kinetic action against Iran will likely result in a protracted conflict, which is maybe what the meeting between Trump, Bibi, and a host of civilians, with no military input, portends.

The markets prefer the dovish path defined by Trump, though the reality is probably quite different and much more messy.

The U.S. national average for gas at the pump rose another three cents, to $2.92 by Sunday.

California ramped up another 12 cents this week, to $4.55 per gallon, the highest in the nation and up 24 cents in just the past two weeks. Washington ($4.12) popped back into the $4+ club. Oregon ($3.61), was up 12 cents. After three weeks under $3.00, Arizona is above $3.00 for second straight week, at $3.15. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma well below any other state, at $2.25, followed by Louisiana ($2.40), Arkansas and Mississippi ($2.43). The remaining Southeast states, from North Carolina ($2.69) west to New Mexico, are all below $2.70, except Florida ($2.87).

In the Northeast, prices remained steady and consistently close to recent lows. Only Pennsylvania ($3.11) was above $3.00. New York held steady at $2.97, along with Vermont ($2.99).

In the midwest region, where the price relief has been significant, Illinois remained the highest, holding at $3.00, up ten cents from two weeks past, with Michigan closer, at $2.98. Kansas was the lowest ($2.46), followed by North Dakota and Iowa ($2.47).

Sub-$3.00 gas was the norm in 41 of the lower 48 states, the same as last week, leaving only California, Washington, Nevada, Oregon, Illinois, Arizona, and Pennsylvania, at $3.00 or above.

Bitcoin

This week: $68,948.18
Last week: $71,145.72
2 weeks ago: $77,242.74
6 months ago: $117,555.50
One year ago: $97,544.53
Five years ago: $55,936.80

With overall liquidity becoming more and more an issue, bitcoin is feeling the pain, nearing a loss of 50% over the past six months. At current levels, anybody who bought into bitcoin in the past 15 months (November 2024) is holding at a loss or, more likely, has already moved on to other pursuits.

It's not going to get any better for bitcoiners or others invested in crypto, it being speculative in the extreme.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 65.32; last week: 63.66

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 1/16: $4,601.10
Gold price 1/23: $4,983.10
Gold price 1/30: $4,907.50
Gold price 2/6: $4,988.60
Gold price 2/13: $5,063.80

Silver price 1/16: $89.94
Silver price 1/23: $103.26
Silver price 1/30: $85.25
Silver price 2/6: $77.53
Silver price 2/13: $77.27

SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 1/16: $4,595.42
Gold 1/23: $4,989.23
Gold 1/30: $4,886.71
Gold 2/6: $4,964.07
Gold 2/13: $5,041.72

Silver 1/16: $89.94
Silver 1/23: $102.95
Silver 1/30: $84.63
Silver 2/6: $77.98
Silver 2/13: $77.19

Silver got whacked again on Thursday, February 12, dropping it from bids around $83 down to $75. Gold was also clubbed to a lesser extent, rallying on Friday to hold above $5,000.

It's Lunar (Chinese) New Year, so the SGE and SHFE, along with all Chinese stock exchanges are closed until Monday, February 23rd. It will be interesting to watch what the COMEX and LBMA riggers do with gold, and especially, silver pricing with the physical market in China shut down. Of course, there's still trading in Mumbai, Singapore, Dubai, and elsewhere with which to contend, so the week ahead may offer some insight to just how well-positioned Western traders are compared to their Asian counterparts.

Sit back and enjoy the show.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) took another drop this week, falling to $95.24, a decline of $2.27 from the February 8 price of $97.51 per troy ounce. The weekly movement reflects wider volatility in world markets and between physical and paper prices.

The weekly eBay price survey revealed that retail dealers and casual buyers and sellers are adjusting to severe premiums, likely the latter in terms of dealers, most of which don't have the cash resources to hedge against the recent wild swings. Supposedly, coin shops have been inundated with gold and silver sellers, hocking, according to Bloomberg (which means it's likely fake news) all of grandma's silverware. Most anybody who is selling their bullion or coinage does not appreciate the dynamics of the market and the positions of the small dealers. Premiums at dealers and on ebay are 20-25% for small denominations, so the small stackers are apparently confident that the recent smackdowns are temporary, which is also the opinion of most serious silver analysts.

WEEKEND WRAP

Change is usually good, and, presently, probably necessary. Old hacks need to be retired. Many are no longer useful nor desired.

At the Close, Friday, February 13, 2026:
Dow: 49,500.93, +48.95 (+0.10%)
NASDAQ: 22,546.67, -50.48 (-0.22%)
S&P 500: 6,836.17, +3.41 (+0.05%)
NYSE Composite: 23,326.09, +137.27 (+0.59%)

For the Week:
Dow: -614.74 (-1.23%)
NASDAQ: -484.54 (-2.10%)
S&P 500: -96.13 (-1.39%)
NYSE Composite: +73.28 (+0.32%)
Dow Transports: -549.04 (-2.76%)

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