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Weekly Survey of Gold and Silver Prices
Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark
Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.
PRIOR COVERAGE:
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Friday, March 7, 2025, 9:18 am ET Thursday was another rough day for equity investors, the third of four this week, leaving the major averages looking at the worst weekly loss of the year. Through Thursday's close, the Dow was down 1,261 points, or 2.88%. The NASDAQ ended Thursday with a week-to-date loss of 778 points (4.13%), yesterday edging into correction territory, down 10.43% from its all-time closing high of 20,173.89 on December 16. On the week, the S&P is lower by 216 points (3.63%). Anxiety over a slew of issues including downsizing government, Ukraine, the Middle East, unemployment, the future of AI, tariffs, and the general economy have caused investors to seek safety in fixed income or stocks that are less exposed to shocks like utilities and some of the less-volatile value stocks on the Dow. When the BLS released February Non-farm Payroll figures an hour before the open on Friday, stock futures had been relatively flat. Upon the announcement of 151,000 jobs added in February and the unemployment rate stable at 4.1%, futures bounced higher in kneejerk fashion, as they normally would, though the blip to the upside was very short-lived and quickly reversed course. The BLS survey for February has to be taken with an ample dose of skepticism. Showing federal government employment falling by a mere 10,000 over the course of the month fails to take into account the more than 75,000 federal workers who took buyouts and will be paid through September. It also seems to have under-reported the number of layoffs generally in the D.C. metro area as DOGE has furloughed many more than 10,000 employees. Additionally, the BLS report runs counter to Wednesday's ADP Private Payrolls figure of 77,000 jobs in February, which cited trade and transportation, health care and education, and information showing job losses. The BLS points to health care, financial activities, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance as sectors showing job gains. Obviously, both surveys cannot be correct and the BLS has a history of being wrong. No matter what Wall Street thinks of the jobs data, it appears to have become a back-burner issue for now. The economy, for what it's worth, seems to be limping along just fine through the turmoil of President Trump's fist 50 days in office (Tuesday, March 11), despite the obvious pressure on stocks. The highly-touted (and severely overrated) BLS monthly jobs data isn't likely to move the needle much this time around. If anything, it appears to show the employment sector in fair shape, despite the obvious fractures in and around the nation's capital. This jobs number is likely comparable to a McDonald's hamburger: unsatisfying, tasteless, and soon forgotten. a half hour before the open, WTI crude oil has bounced off lows to just above $67/barrel. Gold and silver are steady, at $2,920 and $32.55, respectively.
At the Close, Thursday, March 6, 2025:
Thursday, March 6, 2025, 9:09 am ET Stocks staged an impressive rally Wednesday, bouncing back from two straight sessions to the downside to start the week. However, an hour prior to the opening bell Thursday, stock futures are sending ominous signals, with Dow futures down 450 points, NASDAQ futures off 350, and S&P futures off by 75 points. Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported 172,017 job cuts in February, the highest total for February since 2009. The firm, which produces monthly layoff figures every month just prior to the BLS' Non-farm Payroll announcement, saw nearly 62,000 layoffs or firings from government and another 32,000 at retail establishments. DOGE, the federal government's agency headed by Elon Musk tasked with elimination of waste, fraud, and abuse, is credited with the vast majority of the cuts. Initial claims for unemployment fall in the most recent week, as reported Thursday morning, to 221,000, seasonally adjusted. Wednesday's snapback rally may have been more of a buy-the-dip moment on what appeared to some to be oversold conditions. The general tone of the market seemed to point in the opposite direction, as stocks have struggled to hold gains since the start of the year, especially after President Trump's inauguration, January 20. With the February NFP looking more and more like it may come in as a negative number on Friday, investors seem to be scurrying for cover. ADP's 77,000 job gains for the month were for private entities. Friday's NFP will include government layoffs and firings, which could be huge. As the opening bell approaches, gold and silver have backed down a bit. Gold is trending around $2,910, while silver is holding steady above $32.50. WTI crude oil remains moribund, hitting a low of $65.37 Wednesday before bouncing back somewhat to just above $66/barrel. Thursday's trade may be as volatile as the first two days of the week. There remains simply too much uncertainty for investors to make bold trades.
At the Close, Wednesday, March 5, 2024:
Wednesday, March 5, 2025, 9:17 am ET President Trump put his promised tariffs in place on Tuesday, affecting Canada, Mexico, and China (20%, up from 10%) and chaos ensued. Stocks initially sold off, then, as the day wore on and various reporting had Ukraine wanting to complete the mining deal that was scuttled on Friday and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick implying that Canada, Mexico, and Trump were willing to compromise on the 25% tariffs and reciprocation. Stocks headed to the upside. In the final half hour, there was simply too great a supply of sellers. The NASDAQ sold off violently along with the S&P and the Dow. The experience was surreal and third-worldly. Between Trump, news leaks, and the algorithms that make 80-90% of Wall Street's trades, there was little certainty about anything. The NASDAQ briefly entered correction ground, down more than 10% from highs made in November, 2024. From the lows to the highs, NASDAQ traversed 600 points through the day and, along with the S&P, has finished in the red seven of the last nine sessions, the Dow, five of the last eight. Gains for the year have vanished, with the Dow holding up the best, down just 0.05%, while the S&P is off 1.76%, and the NASDAQ, 5.31%. Banks and financials, particularly the largest ones - Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Citigroup (C) - were hardest hit, falling between four and six percent by the close. Even credit card issuers Discover (DFS) and Capital One (COF) were down 6.01% and 5.75% respectively, the pair in the midst of a $45 merger that's been approved by shareholders, though approval from the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency have yet to be issued. The Dow Jones Transportation Average is already in correction, down more than 12% from November highs and is trading below its 200-day moving average. Tariffs, especially those concerning the countries of North America, would likely prove to be damaging to many in the transportation sector. Tuesday night, President Trump took a victory lap in a nationally-televised address to a joint session of congress where he enumerated his administration's accomplishments, acknowledged the work of his newly-appointed cabinet and singled out select Americans as prime exemplars of his self-defined "Golden Age." Pointing out how the Democrats continue to oppose him and show zero support for the changes he is making was a nice touch. He also made clear that Joe Biden was the worst-ever American President. Notably, the President did not mention any backing off on the tariffs, but actually pointed out more severe penalties toward other countries would be put into effect on April 2nd. He mentioned a note from Ukraine's President Zelensky indicating that the mining deal may be back on the table, though it was still uncertain and unsigned. Private employers added 77,000 jobs in February according to ADP's monthly private sector jobs report, released Wednesday morning. According to their survey, hiring slowed to the smallest level of gains since July, 2024, with trade and transportation, health care and education, and information showing job losses. Small business employment also fell. Since the ADP figures do not include government, with DOGE job eliminations running somewhere in the neighborhood of 70-120,000, not including the 75,000 who accepted buyouts and will be paid through September, Friday's Non-Farm payroll data from the BLS could very easily be a negative number and certainly not the last. That may cast a further pallor over the stock market and have other diverse effects on the economy. It's a wait-and-see scenario now on Wall Street. Crude oil continued to price lower. WTI crude dropped to $67.81 by the close Tuesday the lowest level since the decline began more than six weeks ago (January 15, $78.71). It's down further Wednesday morning, to around $66.72. Briefly, Ross Stores (ROST) forecast annual sales and profit below estimates on weaker demand in their fourth quarter release after the close Tuesday. Nordstrom posted better-than-expected earnings ahead of going private. Shares are modestly higher pre-market. Foot Locker (FL) is trading two percent higher after beating on EPS but missing on the revenue side. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) is trading 9-10% lower after issuing weak guidance Wednesday morning. Futures are close to flat-lining a half hour until the open. Gold is holding up at around $2,910 and silver pricing at $32.38 before the bell. Still a lot of uncertainty to go around and stock markets generally don't like being in the dark.
At the Close, Tuesday, February 4, 2025:
Tuesday, March 4, 2025, 9:28 am ET The week began on a very sour note as the major indices suffered another in a series of severe selloffs, this one resulting in the worst one-day drop for the S&P 500 so far in 2025. The NASDAQ has ended lower six of the last eight sessions and close Monday right at its 200-day moving average thanks to a 120-point boost in the final 15 minutes of trading. On a year-to-date measure, only the Dow is positive for the year, clinging to gains of about 1.5%. The NASDAQ will likely test correction territory some time today. A 10 percent decline from its December 16 high (20,173.89) is 18,156.10. For those still faithful to Dow Theory, the Dow Jones Transportation Average is already down 11.56% from its November high. The Industrials would have to hit a number below 40,512.64 in order to confirm a change in the primary trend, in this case, from bull to bear. That's still more than 2,500 points lower from Monday's close. 45,014.04 was the closing high on December 4 for the Industrial Average. The damage to stocks has become palpable and undeniable. Conveniently, the pumpers, cheerleaders, and mainstream media pundits will be able to place blame for all of the stock market and the economy's woes squarely on President Trump and his newly-enacted policies, most prominent the efforts of Elon Musk's DOGE team to downsize the federal government and Trump's tariffs, which are being imposed as of Tuesday, today. Trump's 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico are going into effect today. Duties on Chinese goods have been doubled, from 10% to 20%. In retaliatory fashion, China will impose additional 10%-15% tariffs on certain U.S. imports next week, and expanded export controls on U.S. companies. Canada has responded with immediate 25% tariffs on U.S. imports worth more than $20 billion, and will expand that to imports worth over $86 billion if Trump's tariffs remain in effect for 21 days. Mexico is also expected to announce retaliatory tariffs later today. Making Trump the scape-goat for the bubble in stocks that had to be popped at some point provides an easy way out for Wall Street minions who have been keeping their fingers down on the BUY button since November, 2023, and, obviously, before that. Many stocks in the S&P 500 and the broader NASDAQ have been losing ground with revenue and profits below year prior levels while their share prices have gone up. Brokers and money managers, who have piled client money into passive, overpriced investments can, and will, blame tariffs and Trump. Unemployment will be blamed on Trump and Musk, when the fact of the matter remains that the federal (and many state and local) government has been overloaded with loafers and make-work flunkies, many of whom have not had to report into their offices since the pandemic in 2020. While Trump and Musk do what's needed to restore sanity and economy to government spending, the mainstream media will vilify them both as nasty and uncaring. The same goes for the general economy, which is expected to fall into recession this quarter if it hasn't been in one already. It will all be Trump's fault. Count on it. Meanwhile, gold and silver have rebounded from last week's trouncing, with gold, which was as low as $2,845, and silver, which fell to $31.21, on Friday, have bounced back to $2,932 and $32.21 as of Tuesday morning. There still seems to be no hope for WTI crude and the oil market in general. OPEC is lifting production quotas despite the obvious glut in the market. WTI fell to a low of $67.10 this morning. It's already in a bear market. Stock futures are down across the board as the opening bell approaches. Dow: -110; NASDAQ: -85; S&P: -18. Should be quite the show today and through Friday when the BLS announces February Non-farm payrolls.
At the Close, Monday, March 3, 2025:
Sunday, March 2, 2025, 2:05 pm ET Last Sunday's Weekend Wrap floated the idea that uncertainty reigned over the stock market (and world markets) and opinions ranged from dire predictions of economic collapse to rosy projections for continued gains. A week and a few earnings reports, reactions, and economic numbers later, there appears to be at least a little more clarity. Though there's far from consensus, the indications are for a slowing U.S. and global economy over the upcoming six to 18 months. Nvidia's earnings report and forward projections, although positive, failed to satisfy the hunger of analysts who are eyeing what they believe may be a peak in AI-related infrastructure spending. While there will continue to be sufficient demand for Nvidia's chipsets and related gear, it's not growing at a fast-enough pace to justify the sky-high price of the company's shares. Thus, the morning after Nvidia's fourth quarter and full year release, the sell buttons got pushed, hard, sending shares down eight percent on Thursday with a knee-jerk buy-the-dip reaction Friday, along with the rest of the battered and beaten NASDAQ. On Thursday, the second estimate of 2024 4th quarter GDP was released, revealing the economy grew at 2.3%, in line with expectations and revised slightly higher (less than 0.1%) than the first estimate. With inflation still running at 2.5% or better, this is not an inspiring number. Further, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker was stunningly revised from 2.3% to -1.5%. The researchers cited the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth falling from -0.41 percentage points to -3.70 percentage points while the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth fell from 2.3 percent to 1.3 percent. Though the Atlanta Fed's projections are sometimes off the mark, they are usually close to reality and remain closely-watched indicators. If the 1st quarter comes in at a negative number, as they are forecasting, that would signal a recession, at least the beginning of one. Some commentators believe the U.S. entered a recession in 2024, some say it's even worse, in the belief that economic data was widely skewed to the positive for political reasons throughout 2024. Adding to the argument that the economy is being squeezed is the housing correction and mini-recession underway in the Washington D.C. metro area, thanks to Elon Musk's DOGE and President Trump's commitment to eliminate fraud, waste, and abuse in the federal government. Eliminating half a million to one million government jobs and possibly just as many in government contractors is bound to have a chilling effect on the entire area and spread to other parts of the country as a domino effect. Alongside the layoffs and firings at the federal level, the Trump administration's efforts to identify and deport illegal aliens will also contribute to a slowdown in consumer spending. A country can't simply lose a couple million people without it having some negative effect, and that condition is more or less nationwide, though the hardest hit will be border states like Texas, Arizona, Florida, California, and New Mexico. It won't end there however. Over the past four years, illegals have poured into states that either identify as "sanctuaries" or have Democrat or liberal Republican governors, or both. New York, Illinois, Colorado, Nevada, and others harbor high numbers of illegals. The process of rounding up and removing illegals is an ongoing effort that will take years and result in a drop in population overall, but, eventually will be a net positive. Before that, though, there will be a good deal of pain spread around. The January PCE index released on Friday was positive in terms of inflation, though the argument has already shifted from fighting inflation to fighting dis-inflation or deflation in terms of the economy contracting. The Fed's two-plus years of diddling around the edges while inflation roared to as high as nine percent have had some effect, but other factors, especially unemployment and lower fuel prices, will make inflation disappear at a much faster pace than any Fed rate hikes could possibly hope to achieve. The Fed won't have to raise rates, as some fear they might. Instead, worry should be over whether the Fed will embark upon rate cuts as the economy stumbles into recession. January durable goods orders minus transportation (mostly Boeing) were flat and up just 1.6% on an annualized basis. Consumer confidence, per the Conference Board, fell sharply in the latest survey. Among the more useful indicators could be the Dow Jones Transportation Average, which was down seven consecutive sessions until Friday's 223-point gain left it just below its 200-day moving average. At week's end, the Transports were up 0.57 year-to-date, the Dow up 3.05%, S&P up 1.24%, and the NASDAQ down 2.40%. Real economic conditions are beginning to come into better focus.
The NASDAQ got buried this past week, down 3.47%, despite the reaction rally on Friday. The Dow and NYSE Composite were winners, the S&P lost just less than one percent, but there was structural damage with intraday lows at the worst levels in six weeks on the Dow and S&P. The NASDAQ barely escaped falling into correction, the lows at levels not seen since mid-November (3 1/2 months) and the index sitting just above its 200-day moving average. Stock investors are worried about tariffs and the effects of government downsizing and deportations. Short term, none of these are positive for the general economy. Consumer credit is also a worry not being given enough attention. Consumer spending leveled off during the holidays and hasn't shown any potential for recovery. Housing is overdue for a correction and the recession that was politically forbidden under the Biden administration will bloom fully under no-nonsense Trump. Tech stocks are exhibiting weakness and capital flight. Advisors are recommending energy, utilities, and various other safety plays. Conditions, which have been changing day-to-day, are causing severe choppiness, but a gradual tendency to the downside overall. The weeks ahead will be dominated by questions of how long and how deep the recession will be, once it arrives (it may already have begun). With the White House dominating the media, those voices cryng for Fed rate cuts are being drowned out. The word "stimulus" may become more commonplace, but the general attitude from the Trump administration is that everybody will share the pain and bailouts are not a solution. Full year and fourth quarter earnings reports are slowing to a trickle, but some big retailers announce this week: Monday: (before open) Sunnova (NOVA), TG Theraputics (TGTX); (after close) Emergent Biosolutions (EBS), Nuscale (SMR), GitLab (GTLB) Tuesday: (before open) AutoZone (AZO), Target (TGT), Best Buy (BBY); (after close) Ross Stores (ROST), Nordstrom (JWN), Crowdstrike (CRWD) Wednesday: (before open) FootLocker (FL), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF; (after close) Lending Tree (TREE), Victoria's Secret (VSCO) Thursday: (before open) JD.com (JD), Kroger (KR), BJ's Wholesale (BJ), Cracker Barrel (CBRL), Burlington (BURL); (after close) Gap Inc (GAP), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Costco (COST), Broadcom (AVGO) Friday: (before open) Algonquin (AQN), Genesco (GCO), . The week ahead begins with ISM purchasing Managers Report on Monday and ends with Friday's February Non-farm payroll data. There's some chance that the NFP number will be a negative one with most estimates figuring a slowdown from January's 143,000 to possibly a range of 50-75,000. In between, ADP will set out February private payroll data on Wednesday with possible hints toward the "official" BLS figure and Challenger, Gray, and Christmas puts out its February hiring data.
The 6-week bill has been added to the treasury stack this week. There's not much difference in yield between it and 1-and-2-month bills, so no surprise there. Yields on everything after the 4-month bill fell this week as money managers fled to the safety of fixed income. The biggest moves were at the furthest out, as the yield on the 30-year fell 16 basis points to 4.51%. The 10-year dropped even more, 18 basis points, to a low of 4.24, the lowest since December, but hardly significant. The two-year dropped below 4.00% for the first time since October though the entire structure remains historically flat, suggesting stagnating conditions, also not surprising. The spread on 2s-10s was slightly elevated by two basis points to +25. Full Spectrum returned was flattened from +31 to +13, narrowest since the dis-inversion mid-December. When borrowing costs at any duration is one to two percent above the inflation rate, something's got to give and it's probably going to be manifested in lower rates across the board as inflation becomes dis-inflation and probably deflation. Money is about to get tight.
2s-10s
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
WTI crude oil prices continue to fall, from $77.37 at the New York close on January 17, to $74.60 on January 24, to $73.81 on January 31, to $71.06 on February 7, $70.56 on February 14, $70.25 on February 21, and finally, down to $69.95 at the New York close this Friday. Six consecutive weeks of falling prices by a cumulative 10 percent should have convinced enough people that the price of oil is not going back up any time soon. But, there are stil bulls in the oil patch. WTI bottomed out at $68.48 on Wednesday and made a mini-comeback late in the week. It may have a further rebound in the weeks ahead, but they will be temporary only as the price of energy meets "drill, baby, drill", oversupply and slack to falling demand. Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump has begun falling at a faster pace, manifesting the lag time between the oil price and that of refined product. This week it's down to $3.06, from $3.13 a gallon last Sunday morning. The price of gas nationwide should continue falling for the next four to six weeks, longer if oil prices continue to slide, which they should. California remains on top, though down a nickel from last week, at $4.75. Pennsylvania fell four cents, to $3.31, the Keystone State remaining the longtime price leader in the Northeast. New York is a distant second at $3.13, followed closely by Vermont, $3.14. Connecticut ($3.06) and Massachusetts ($2.99) saw small price drops. Maryland is back down to $2.97. New Jersey is at $3.01. Illinois was down five cents, to $3.18. Ohio ($2.76) and Indiana ($2.83) were down the most in the Midwest over the past two weeks. Texas ($2.59) overtook Mississippi ($2.62) as the lowest in the country, just slightly better than Oklahoma ($2.63) this week. Louisiana is at $2.66; South Carolina, $2.68, followed by Kentucky ($2.70), Arkansas ($2.72), and Alabama ($2.73) Tennessee ($2.74), and North Carolina ($2.75). Georgia ($2.92) and Florida ($3.06) completes the low-cost SouthEast region. Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, and Iowa range from $2.80 to $2.88. Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in three more states than last week. At least 29 U.S. states have prices under $3.00. The West continues to suffer the highest prices in the country. Arizona ($3.40) was off just a penny. Oregon dropped a mere one cent, at $3.73, while Nevada dropped five, down to $3.77. Washington was stable at $4.12, joining California in the tiny club of mainland states at $4.00 or higher. Utah ($3.00) was down, and Idaho ($3.13) fell five cents.
This week: $94,335.26 Bitcoin has not been over $100,00 since February 4 and this week got taken to the cleaners, dropping below $80,000 for the first time since early November. However, Sunday morning, out of the blue, the crypto-clip joint saw to it that the price would rise nearly $10,000 in less than three hours. If you bought bitcoin at 5 or 6:00 am ET at $85,500 or $86,000, gold mine! Instant profit, all because the President spoke glowingly about crypto on Truth Social and announced a Crypto Summit at the White House, scheduled for Friday, March 7. Will it last? Probably not, unless BlackRock wants it to stay up there or go higher. Such a clown show, which is why all talk about a bitcoin strategic reserve should be disregarded as fluff. With price fluctuations like these, bitcoin can never be a reliable store of wealth unless the human race intakes copious amounts of stupid injections. Maybe they already have.
Gold:Silver Ratio: 91.23; last week: 89.84 Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 2/2: $2,809.30
Silver price 2/2: $32.24 Gold and silver took some corrective medicine, if only because they had been out-performing stocks (and still are). Even after last week's blood-letting, gold is up 8.57%, silver ahead 7.49% year-to-date. As performance metrics go, it's probably going to get better for precious metals as compared to stocks. Everything may go down, but PMs will go down less. This could be an opportune time to nibble a little. Prices may go back up just as easily as they could decline. However, those who think gold is a bargain under $2,900, might want to check out the gold:silver ratio of 91.23. Don't just sit there, buy more silver! Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) was relatively stable over the course of the week, posting $40.90 on Sunday morning, a drop of 14 cents from the February 23 price of $41.04 per troy ounce.
After the White House spat with the little dictator (Zelenskyy) on Friday, DOGE continuing to slash and burn, the House putting up a bloated budget outline, first quarter GDP estimates signaling recession, and stocks taking some big dives, has the White House shown any fiscal discipline? Not yet. Waiting an hoping is not a strategy. Trump is walking a tightrope.
At the Close, Friday, February 21, 2025:
For the Week:
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