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Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.
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Friday, March 27, 2026, 9:22 am ET
With the war in Iran still raging, modern investors have added another tool to their arsenal of market prediction devices: checking TruthSocial for Trump posts before, during, and after market hours. This has become essential for anybody moving money in markets. Since the onset of the war, Trump's posts, tweets, or truths have become almost akin to an Orwellian Ministry of Truth, dictating the movement of the herd, hoard, boards, bean-counters, Beanie-Babies, baby daddies, ditch diggers, oil riggers, stone cutters and even some stoned corn cobblers. It's the new AI, "Almost Insightful." Actually, Trump's random scribblings aren't all that important for anybody with an IQ above room temperature or an investment horizon longer than 30 minutes. Most normal people (normal being a moving object these days) aren't glued to their Bloomberg or Interactive Broker monitors. The abnormal primates that inhabit lower Manhattan and otherwise undesirable portions of New Jersey are far from normal and far removed from exceptional status. They're where they are in order to do one thing: grift from the public. They exist as modern day anti-Robin Hoods, taking from anybody to give to themselves. Other than lining their pockets with OPM (other peoples money), they serve no useful purpose. They can't fix a leaky faucet, nor can they hammer a nail. Nobody in their right mind would hire them to babysit their kids. If you are one of them, this message is for you: GFY. The world is moving past the era of financialization of everything. All due apologies to Gordon Gecko, greed is decidedly NOT good and measuring the value of people by their net worth or stock portfolio is avaricious, shameful, and churlish. Modern people have grown tired of an existence based upon how much money they'll need to retire from a slavish employment. Under the current rubric of self-worth equating to a bank account balance, hearts and minds yearn for actual meaning, purpose, or relief from a world ruled by billionaire oligarchs seeking to identify, track, and judge every human action. "Freedom", as defined in the ballad, "Me and Bobby McGee" as just another word for nothing left to lose has once again spun up to the present as prescient. There's got to be a better way and people are increasingly seeking one. Trump's tweets and truths become simply the overt manifestation of the politics of financial inertia, where everything and anything is defined by dollar signs of a currency rapidly losing value. A dime doesn't buy a cup of coffee and a million has become passé. High-echelon grifting has gone mainstream, leaving the huddled masses to fend for themselves in a quagmire or lies, half-truths and unabashed propaganda. There's an end to it, somewhere, and though it hasn't yet appeared, the end does seem to be closing fast. Trump's latest missive concerning yet another ultimatum and timeline, hasn't gone over very well on Wall Street.
As per Iranian Government request, please let this statement serve to represent that I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 P.M., Eastern Time. Talks are ongoing and, despite erroneous statements to the contrary by the Fake News Media, and others, they are going very well. Thank you for your attention to this matter. Stock futures are lower heading into Friday's session. With less than a half hour before the bell, Dw futures are down 217 points; NASDAQ futures are off 190, and S&P futures are lower by 36 points. This comes following a bloody session Thursday amid a disappointing week. Through Thursday's close, the Dow still holds gains from earlier, up 382 points. The NASDAQ has done less well, down 239, and the S&P is down 29 points. Friday's trade looks vulnerable. A negative close would mark the seventh down week for the S&P in the last eight and its fifth straight week n the red. After a while, one has to question Trump's decision-making ability and the rationale for entering into a military conflict with a nation that can actually put up a fight. A couple of weeks of negative returns might be passed off as just the usual ups and downs of the market, but five straight begins to look like a trend, a pattern. It's becoming obvious that not everybody is a drone or a garden gnome, following wistfully along the road to perdition.
At the Close, Thursday, March 26, 2026:
Thursday, March 26, 2026, 9:02 am ET Up one day, down another. These are exceptionally difficult markets to trade, being that entire indices can turn on a dime whenever President Trump makes a statement on truthsocial.com, his very own bully pulpit platform. Whether the statement has any veracity at all matters not, only the message sent to markets concerning the war effort in the Middle East is tradable, the algorithms picking up on the tone and substance of whatever the Tweeter-in-Chief posts. Taking market manipulation to an entirely new level, all but a few insiders - who are profiting handsomely - have advance information on which way Trump intends to send markets on any particular day. Trying to guess or ascertain in which direction stocks or the price of crude oil or natural gas on any day at any time is an extremely risky endeavor. One thing that has become clear from all the lifting and dumping of stocks and commodity futures is that the direction for stocks has been decidedly down since the end of January, and has only accelerated since the onset of hostilities on February 28. The opposite is true for oil, as WTI crude oil had remained below $70/barrel until Friday, February 27, shooting up to above $90 by the end of the first week of the war. Since then, it's been up and down, bounced by presidential musings, half truths, and whole lies, but it appears the market has figured out the game. Thursday morning sees WTI crude priced above $94, with stock futures tumbling. Trump posted early this morning (6:39 am ET) on Truth Social:
The Iranian negotiators are very different and “strange.” They are “begging” us to make a deal, which they should be doing since they have been militarily obliterated, with zero chance of a comeback, and yet they publicly state that they are only “looking at our proposal.” WRONG!!! They better get serious soon, before it is too late, because once that happens, there is NO TURNING BACK, and it won’t be pretty! President DJT This whole charade is getting a bit tiring, to say the least, but naked emperor seems to be in a sour mood this morning, demanding Iran surrender for the umpteenth time. However, as of this writing, at 8:30-9:00 am ET, the president still has an hour to make a market-moving pronouncement before the opening bell, and there's no guarantee that he won't mouth off a few times during the day. In fact, odds are good that he'll "tweet", "truth", or comment live to the press at some point. He simply can't help himself and there's still plenty of easy grifting available. So, unless you have nerves of steel and money with which to play, day-trading with the heavy hitters and insiders might not be the optimal trading strategy at this juncture. A few ways to play the current malaise might be to go long defense stocks, energy, and financials. There's little doubt that more and more money is headed toward the likes of Lockheed Martin (LMT), General Dynamics (GD) or Northrop Grumman (NOC), or that ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) won't be making windfall profits for a few quarters. And it's almost a certainty that the trading houses of JP Morgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Citigroup (C) will have been privy to at least some of the best insider trades. Profits on these stocks may take a while to show up, but, if one has a six month or longer horizon, they may turn out to be mice catches. This is not financial advice, only opinion. Money Daily has no positions in any of these securities. One of the oddities of the current global market is how precious metals have traded in tight correlation to stocks. For instance, stock futures are lower this morning, so gold and silver have traded off as well. This is far from normal. Usually, in times of stress, investors flee to gold and silver. This time, one supposes, is different. Markets are under control of a vast, deceitful cabal of internationalists whose goal seems to be the upheaval of everything in the political, social, military, and financial spheres. From the looks of it, they're doing a swell job, so far. Gold and silver are on sale, so stocking up a little right now might not be a bad idea, unless you've got storage facilities for a couple thousand barrels of oil. Otherwise, canned goods and survival rations? Maybe.
At the Close, Wednesday, March 25, 2026:
Wednesday, March 25, 2026, 9:30 am ET Now that President Trump has made (somewhat) clear his intentions toward ending the conflict with Iran (he surely does not want this to drag on), it's probably better to look forward to a year from now than focus on current events, which have been confusing and difficult to comprehend. There are, however, some signals that can be taken for direction. Nobody, not Hannibal, Napoleon, Churchill, not even the Donald himself, asks for a ceasefire when they are winning. Nobody. And that leads to the conclusion that the U.S. and Israel (and maybe especially Israel) are losing. Even if Trump's flash-bang stealth negotiators, Kushner and Witkoff, are talking to anybody, they're almost certainly getting the cold shoulder from their Iranian counterparts. Iran has steadfastly refused to negotiate with the U.S. in any manner since they were attacked just as they were negotiating (and making quite a few concessions) on February 28, and before that, prior to the 12-day war. As the saying goes, "fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me." The Iranians are neither foolish nor cowardly. There will be no third time to be fooled. They will fight as long as the U.S. and Israel will and the U.S. has already blinked, at least twice. Currently, the U.S. has committed to not targeting Iran's energy infrastructure. Israel is a different story. They will do what they usually do: bomb and destroy anything available, setting up their ultimate destruction. Iran has had to deal with Israel's meddling since 1947. They consider Israelites to be invaders, occupiers, and war criminals. Thus, Iran will continue to strike with ever increasing force until Israel is neutered... forever. That is the first thing one can fathom from the future a year from now. Israel will not exist in its current form and it will not be a threat to anybody in the region, except possibly itself. As far as President Trump is concerned, he's acting more like a grifter than a leader. His routine is getting old. Make some kind of market moving announcement, place your bets, profit. Make a buck seems to be of more importance than "winning" against Iran. Trump can, and likely will, find a way to extricate the United States from the Middle East, call it a win, and move on. The caveat - even though now it appears the U.S. is losing - is that more troops are coming to the region. By the end of this week, expect either a major assault on Iran, targeting their infrastructure and making use of some 50-70,000 troops that are currently en route to the area, or, a continuation of troop and material build-up, leading to one last major strike within a few weeks, probably before the end of April. By making a big show of U.S. firepower, Trump will - either very soon, like within a week's time, or, by the end of April - claim victory and begin to gradually pull back. His claim that Iran has been neutralized will conflict with conditions on the ground, but that doesn't matter to Trump, who controls the media even as he loses control of his own military. Alongside the current conflict is Scott Ritter, currently in Moscow, speaking with Russian diplomats and other officials to position Russia as a mediator. The Russians are listening to him because Ritter has experience and they trust his judgement as a fair and honest actor, in deference to the sleazy tactics of Witkoff and Kushner. What will the Middle East look like a year from now? Here are a few of the possibilities:
or...
Overall, the future looks bleak for Israel no matter what happens. Even if Scott Ritter pulls off a miracle, like filling an open straight in a poker hand (no pun intended, but there it is), U.S. and Israeli influence in the Middle East will be vastly diminished. In one scenario, stocks hold most of their value; in the other, stocks lose most of their value. Gold and silver win either way.
At the Close, Tuesday, March 24, 2026:
Tuesday, March 24, 2026, 9:23 am ET It has become painfully obvious that President Trump will do, say, or tweet just about anything in order to get what he wants, be it money, oil, control, or power. Monday's assertion that talks with Iran had taken place over the weekend were absolutely false, his prevarication confirmed by Iranian officials who for weeks have been unwavering in their commitment to not engage in negotiations with the United States. One can only guess what machinations are entertained by delusional megalomaniacs such as the current White House resident, but assuredly they are not likely consistent with the wishes of the American public, most of whom appear to have no stomach for military engagements and desire little more than peace and price relief in their daily routines. Sadly, the American public is close to the bottom of the totem pole in terms of Trump's exceptional alternate reality, so cheaper gas or discounts on food staples are going to be temporary at best and unachievable long term, at worst. What is apparent is Trump's lust for power. Speaking to reporters on Monday, the president suggested that shared control over the Strait of Hormuz with "the Ayatollah" has become an objective and the military may be employed to achieve that particular far-fetched goal. It's a fantasy only a crooked, self-absorbed individual could dream up, given that Iran has all but neutralized American bases in the region and holds a vastly superior geographical advantage over the region. The Strait of Hormuz borders Iran, and they appear to be reluctant to share dominance over the waterway with the United States or anybody else. Of course, Trump could be bluffing or boasting, but there's a very real chance that he and the broan trust at the Pentagon have spun up some kind of military solution that would assure America's right to play policeman or toll operator in the Persian Gulf. This is the sordid reality that the world must confront as the regional conflict slogs through its fourth week. In economic terms, continued military operations in the Middle East are challenging to the declining Western nations. The United States has been badly damaged, even as Iran and Israel have taken the brunt of the missile strikes and random bombings. America's interests have been mostly confined to its military bases in Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere, so the financial fallout has been somewhat shielded from the general public and U.S. markets. The bills are coming due, however. The United States cannot continue operating on a wartime footing with a dysfunctional government that is approaching $40 trillion in debt. The rest of the world sees through the financial escapades playing out with money created out of thin air attempting to maintain a hegemony that's been shattered. Should the United States and its main ally, Israel, achieve the objective of dominating trade in the region, they will be tasked with maintaining that control, so it is likely that any gains made will be fleeting, unsure, and subject to overthrow. What the United States and Israel are demonstrating in plain view is the last gasps of empire. The aims of the two countries are not realistic and will continue to cause real pain for all involved until they are neutralized and sent packing. Time is running short on the aggressors and the response from markets in the U.S. and Europe are unlikely to be long-lasting. The evidence is already being seen in stock futures Tuesday morning, which are dropping like rocks. A half hour before the opening bell, Dow futures are down 275 points, NASDAQ futures are off 176, and S&P futures have tumbled 35 points. Trump and his cronies certainly made some serious scratch on Monday. Now they'll make more as market re-adjust.
At the Close, Monday, March 23, 2026:
Monday, March 23, 2026, 9:13 am ET President Trump, ever the entertainer-in-chief has found the exit ramp he's been seeking to extricate himself and the United States from the worst military defeat in the country's history. The Truth Social post from early Monday morning, Trump posted, yelling, in all CAPS:
I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP Of course, this is absolute nonsense, intended to reach the Iranians (about 3:37 pm in Tehran), though the main targeted audience is in the U.S. and specifically, the people moving money around on Wall Street. This comes on the heels of Saturday's post:
If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP The deadline Trump set was for Monday evening, around 8:00 pm ET. The post from this morning contradicts and makes the threat moot. This post, on Friday night, exposed the hand Trump is playing:
We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran: (1) Completely degrading Iranian Missile Capability, Launchers, and everything else pertaining to them. (2) Destroying Iran’s Defense Industrial Base. (3) Eliminating their Navy and Air Force, including Anti Aircraft Weaponry. (4) Never allowing Iran to get even close to Nuclear Capability, and always being in a position where the U.S.A. can quickly and powerfully react to such a situation, should it take place. (5) Protecting, at the highest level, our Middle Eastern Allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and others. The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not! If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated. Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation for them. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP Trump will get none of what he's asking for from Iran, as they've shown no inclination to negotiate with the U.S. - as they've stated many ties already - but, he has established the U.S. position on the conflict in the Middle East, essentially signaling the end of U.S. involvement in the region, and, via Monday morning's post, a nearly immediate end to hostilities. Of course, this directive does not include Israel, which is being left hung out to fend for itself against Iran, which has methodically destroyed much of Israel through some 80 or more waves of missile and draone attacks, the latest targeting the communities of Dimona and Arad, the largest near the center of Israel's sparsely populated Negev desert, demonstrating that they have the ability to strike Israel's Dimona nuclear plant at any time should they so choose. Iran also demonstrated very clearly to America, Israel and the world that their missiles have a much longer range than previously thought when they sent two missiles at the military base of Diego Garcia, some 2,500 miles from Tehran on Friday. Though the missiles caused little damage and reportedly no injuries, the message sent by the Iranians was clear: they have enough range to hit targets in Europe. Also, over the weekend, Iran shot down an F-15 fighter jet near the Strait of Hormuz. This most recent activity arrives following unmistakable evidence that Iran has defeated the U.S. and Israel in no uncertain terms, blowing up U.S. bases in the region, severely damaging two aircraft carriers - USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford - shooting down at least six U.S. aircraft and shelling Israel's main cities of Haifa and Tel Aviv continuously. There's little doubt that Trump and his military and political advisors have seen enough, and, while raising the white flag of surrender remains out of the question, the decision to cut and run has been made, just in time for markets to open on Monday morning. While its apparent that the U.S. has no will to fight to the end, it's also clear that the decision was made late last week, as markets began to enter danger zones. As of Friday's closing bell the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 9.11% off its February 10 high (50,188.14). The NASDAQ had dipped 9.61% from its October 29, 2025 high of 23,958.47. Markets were reaching dangerously close to "official" correction territory of -10%. Additionally, WTI crude oil was approaching $100 per barrel and the average price of gas in the U.S. was near $4.00 ($3.93 Sunday). Trump made his intentions to exit the theater of war clear with the Monday morning "truth", much of which was pure nonsense. Markets responded as expected. Crude oil sank from $101.30 to $89.08 within a matter of minutes. Dow futures, which were down some 400 points, streaked higher to up over 1,000 points. The same kind of moves were seen in NASDAQ futures, up more than 500 points, and S& futures, up more than 130 points. Without a doubt, Trump and his billionaire buddies are making serious bank on these moves. It's obvious that President Trump and his cabal of criminals favor money over people's lives. As disgusting as that may sound, it is obvious to all but those blinded by the MAGA "never wrong" crowd. America has been defeated. It has lost its prestige in the world. Whatever gains are made by pulling out of a war that it started will be tainted by the blood of the dead. As far as Israel is concerned, best of luck. Iran will likely destroy most of the country and render its military useless.
Sunday, March 22, 2026, 11:57 am ET Editor's Note: This is a condensed version of the usual Weekend Wrap due to time limitations, fast-changing narratives and the NCAA Men's Basketball Championship Tournament. Full commentary will be posted on Monday, March 23. - FR There has been a major signal shift coming from the White House and Trump's latest "truths" and "tweets" leaning favorably towards a cut and run from the Middle East without admitting defeat. Because this issue begs for more clarity - and because college basketball in March takes precedence over everything - a fuller picture should emerge by Monday morning. Money Daily will have a full report prior to the U.S. market open on Monday. Stocks
Another bummer week for stocks: Major averages were all down close to two percent on the week. Not a coincidence. As cynical as commentary on the stock market has become, there's little surprise that stocks stopped out just short of a -10% decline. Treasury Yield Curve Rates
Commentary Monday... Spreads:
2s-10s
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years) Oil/Gas WTI Crude Oil finished the week at $98.09, slightly higher than last Friday's close at $97.20 Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. is $3.94. Bitcoin
This week: $68,913.54 Commentary Monday. Precious Metals Gold:Silver Ratio: 66.29; last week: 62.31 Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 2/20: $5,108.34
Silver price 2/20: $84.57
SPOT:
Silver 2/20: $84.57 Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) continued to decline through Sunday, to $84.11, a loss of $10.97 from the March 15 price of $95.08 per troy ounce. WEEKEND WRAP More to come on Monday...
At the Close, Friday, March 20, 2026:
For the Week:
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