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Weekly Survey of Gold and Silver Prices
Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark
Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.
PRIOR COVERAGE:
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Friday, March 28, 2025, 9:18 am ET The word of the day is "uncertainty." The gains from Monday have been largely rolled back by declines the past two days. Through Thursday's closing bell, the Dow is ahead by 314 points on the week, NASDAQ is up 20, S&P 500 is up 25 points, and the NYSE Composite is down 51 points. Not to be forgotten, the Dow Jones Transportation Average is up 275 points for the week, a gain of 1.88%. Some of the 20 component stocks of the $TRAN may be targets of bottom-fishers, as the index has had five consecutive weeks of losses, is trading well below its 200-day moving average and executed a "death cross" a little more than a week ago, with the 50-day dropping below the 200-day moving average. This week's gains might also be indicative of either a short squeeze or shorts closing out positions with profits. More than likely, it's a combination of the two, in addition to some bargain hunting. Heading into the final session of the week, and second-last of the month and quarter, positioning may be a priority for funds, wishing to demonstrate proper allocations to their clientele. It would be reasonable to assume that the majority of long funds would show a preference for defensive positions in raw materials, consumer staples, utilities, and possibly health care while departing from information technology, financials, and consumer discretionary sectors. Some of those trades may be set up for Monday, March 31, though it would seem obvious for fund managers to be scaling into positions in advance of the quarter-ending date and Trump's April 2nd tariffs, which the president has nicknamed "liberation day", in the belief that heavy tariffs will free American companies from tariffs and unfair trade policies effected by other nations. How President Trump's tariff schemes play out is the main subject of debate within the investment community. With so many moving parts involved in global trade, even company managers with inside knowledge of their business structures and policies may not have a firm grip on what's about to unfold, creating an environment full of fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) that is in no way beneficial to the smooth functioning of any business venture. The major indices having moved only fractionally through Thursday sets up an intriguing dynamic to close out the week. Will traders see more volatility ahead or be able to conjure up some rationale to add to positions or stake out new opportunities? From a day-trading and algo-watching perspective, this is the essential question. Given prevailing choppiness in markets, it is difficult to discern any kind of consensus in either direction, though, admittedly, bears appear to be holding a strong hand. Amid the confusion in equity markets, precious metals, the bastion of security, have advanced powerfully. As of Friday morning, gold has made new highs yet again, reaching $3,094.90 on the COMEX, while silver may finally be breaking out, marking a 13-year high at $35.49 early Friday morning. Mass confusion over tariffs and other issues of governance, geo-politics, and valuations has served to enhance the prospects of gold and silver, both from a position of protection and one of anticipation for what may soon be a complete overhaul of global finance. The topic of gold-backed currency has been increasingly mentioned in economic circles for reasons that should be obvious. Central bank purchases of gold tonnage has been at or near record levels for three years running. If the supposedly wisest and largest currency managers on the planet are hoarding gold, they are not doing so devoid of some deeper, ulterior purpose. With much of the world on a razor's edge, who can blame them? Minutes ago, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released February PCE data, showing the year-over-year PCE price index for February increased 2.5 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.8 percent from one year ago. From January, the PCE price index for February increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.4 percent. The monthly headline numbers were generally in line with expectations, while the year-ago numbers were something of a head-scratcher with the full PCE below expectations and core, above. The release didn't go over well in the futures market, with stock futures dropping near to morning lows. With less than half an hour until the opening bell, Dow futures are down 100 points, NASDAQ futures off 92, and S&P futures sliding about 20 points. These numbers are going to be interpreted as somewhat inconclusive in terms of Fed interest rate policy, as the PCE is the most-favored inflation indicator. Happy trading!
At the Close, Thursday, March 27, 2025:
Thursday, March 27, 2025, 9:11 am ET While stocks continue to rise and, mostly, fall, precious metals are basically kicking A$$ and taking names, as gold and silver this morning are each up close to 16% year-to-date. That would be considered a pretty good year for most stocks or even the metals, but it's only March 27. Gold and silver have much further upside. There's a very good possibility that gold will hit $3,500 this year. and silver will - some day - vault over $40 per ounce. To the non-believers, consider that for gold to hit $3,500 this year it would have to rise another 15% or so. On December 31, 2024, gold, on the COMEX continuous contract was $2,618.10. If it hits $3,500 this year that would be an overall gain of 33.7%, or, a little better than what it did last year (27%). A five-year chart of gold or silver shows the same thing, the trajectory is rising. It wasn't that long ago - two years - that gold breached the $2,000 level for the first time (March 25, 2023). Over the next year, to late March, 2024, it only rose about another $180. So, over the past year - late March 2024 to late March, 2025 - the gain has been approaching astronomical levels. From $2,180 to $3,060 today is a gain of over 40%. Gold may continue on this upward trajectory and might even surpass that 40%, meaning that by this time next year, the gold you hold now at $3,060 could very well be worth $4,284. With world politics being what it is currently - a total crap-shoot - that actually doesn't seem very far-fetched. Gold and silver suppression has been a kind of sport or parlor game for the purveyors of fiat currencies, in particular, the mighty US dollar, for decades. Of late, the dollar has been strong against other currencies, except, of course, the currency that is actual MONEY, gold. While the US$ has been holding its own against the euro, pound and yen, it's been taken behind the woodshed and beaten to a pulp by gold, and, to a lesser extent, silver. That's because the actual purchasing power of the dollar has been falling, debased by easy money policies of the Federal Reserve and profligate spending by the federal government. President Trump, with exemplary assistance by Elon Musk and his team at DOGE, is changing part of that equation. The aim is to restore honesty, integrity, and accountability to the government. No more work from home. No more shuffling papers to make $80,000 a year. No more money to agencies like USAid and the Department of Education - just to name a few obvious examples - that produce nothing other than expense for U.S. taxpayers. Trump's plan of austerity for the government will likely result in a balanced budget during his term, and probably a surplus for the first time this century. That would change the calculus on gold's value to some degree, though there's much more to gold's story than just that. Central banks continue to buy gold hand over fist, as they've done for the past three years running. That is not going to stop. Anybody keeping tabs on BRICS also is aware that they are not going away just because America suddenly has a sane, purposeful president. Their path continues to be clear. Bilateral trade between BRICS members and associates will continue to be a central theme for them. Settlement in gold, while not practical at present because of the volatile nature of geo-politics and the price of gold (which are intertwined), is also part of the longer-term agenda. Clouding the global trade picture are Trump's tariffs, designed to level the playing field for the United States, though U.S. trading partners aren't about to stand idly by and pay tribute to the U.S.A. Retaliatory tariffs are already on the menu, and the prices are going up. If, as many economists contend, tariffs mean inflation, that will only add to gold's charm and price appreciation. Even if the tariffs prove to be only mildly inflationary, gold will still maintain its underlying value as the currency of final choice. The inflation from tariffs may not be felt as acutely in the United States as in other countries, as they scramble for trade policies to salvage their economies. Over the longer term, the major trading countries - primarily, the United States, China, Russia, India, Brazil, and the European Union - will sort things out and decide to either go to war or settle on some rational trade policy settlement currency, and that is most likely to be gold. A year ago, when gold was just breaking towards $2,200, talk of $3,000 gold was considered by some to be a pipe dream, yet, here we are, one year hence, with gold holding above $3,000 and not looking back. It's time to take the people who've been talking about $5,000 or $10,000 gold more seriously.
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Monday's stock market rally is already a fading memory and beginning to look like just another run-f-the-mill bear market, short-covering rally with no follow through. Tuesday's trade was tepid, to say the least, and without conviction. Wednesday's trading erased almost all of the gains from the first two days and it appears that the lows from March 13 are soon to be re-tested. It's a safe bet that they won't hold, simply because the lows, especially on the NASDAQ and S&P 500, were not at significant support levels. Besides the chartist view, stocks remain overvalued, the U.S. is headed for a recession within months, if not weeks, and Trump, Musk, DOGE, and Border Czar Tom Homan are just getting started. Thanks to activist judges, much of the work done the past two months to eliminate waste, fraud, abuse, and millions of illegals has been put on hold or otherwise turned back. That's going to change. The courts don't have the power to block presidential, executive actions. Watch and see what happens at the Supreme Court level, soon to come. This morning, the third and final estimate of 4th quarter 2024 GDP came in at 2.4%, which wasn't of much importance, up 0.1% from the first and second estimates. Since GDP is a lagging indicator, more important, moving forward, will be GDP for the 1st quarter, which will be released the last Thursday in April. The estimates for 1Q GDP are not encouraging, ranging from +1.5 to -2.5%. There's ample time for stocks and interest rates to adjust to what is likely to be a newer reality. In the meantime, all anybody can talk about is tariffs. The problem is that nobody knows for certain what effect tariffs will have on trade policy of other countries, inflation, or any other metric that may be affected. Markets, disliking uncertainty, are going to be quite volatile for longer than most people expect. As of 8:30 am ET, S&P futures are basically flat, NASDAQ futures are 24 points down, Dow futures are up 69. There's more downside coming, if not today, then soon enough. WTI crude oil traded for over $70/barrel for about an hour on Wednesday. It was the first time in a month that the price was at that level and it did not hold. Oil is going to settle in somewhere around $66-68, possibly lower. Gold made another record on the COMEX at $3,065 this morning, but the bigger move was in silver, hitting a six-month high of $34.83. Should silver break above $35 - a key resistance - and hold, it's a straight shot to $40. A bear market in stocks and a bull market in precious metals are the most obvious developments. Hard to miss.
At the Close, Wednesday, March 26, 2025:
Wednesday, March 26, 2025, 9:15 am ET After Monday's huge bounce to the upside, there wasn't much in the way of follow through, suggesting stocks may take another downturn shortly. Tuesday's gains were of the smallish variety. Only the NASDAQ - being the most-leveraged of the indices - had any semblance of conviction. The broadest measure, the NYSE Composite, was actually down slightly, which is why Money Daily always reports it and others don't. Perception is half the battle in shaping outlooks. With most of the economic data coming in below expectations, this morning's US durable goods orders came in at +0.9% against expectations of -1.0% after January was revised up from +3.2% to +3.3, defying the general logic that the U.S. is headed for a recession. On the other hand, anybody not quite convinced that a global recession is soon to occur (if not already happening) needs to read this information from Schwab (twice):
The U.S. Q4 2024 final gross domestic product (GDP) comes out on Thursday. The previous print was 2.3% which is the highest in the world and the only country above 2%. The latest updates from China, Japan, and the United Kingdom are 1.6%, 0.6% and 0.1%, respectively. The Euro area is at 0% including Germany at -0.2%. Two percent growth is somewhat of a baseline for GDP anywhere in the world. The idea that most countries aren't making the grade has to be a concern beyond the rhetoric of tariffs, the inflation-deflation debate, federal government downsizing, geo-politics, and the excessive assortment of market-altering events and news that seem to be popping up not only daily, but several times a day. Wednesday appears to be a mixed bag. Futures are mixed, with Dow futures up 82, NASDAQ futures down 20, and S&P futures flat. WTI crude oil is closing in on $70 a barrel after US supply was drawn down in the latest energy report. Gold is hovering around $3,035, with silver catching a bid above $34.40. Markets dislike uncertainty.
At the Close, Tuesday, March 25, 2025:
Tuesday, March 25, 2025, 8:45 am ET Editor's Note: According to Google's Blogger stats, this is post number 4,000 of Money Daily. After last week's modest gains, stocks got the green light Monday, supposedly on some perceived softening of President Trump's tariff stance, and traders took the bait like a hungry school of fish, sending the major indices to the best gains in weeks. The overall effect of Monday's rise will be to instill some confidence in markets, though how enduring the thrill may be is questionable. Nothing eally has changed in terms of geo-politics, economics, or market structure other than a one-day wondrous rally. Anybody with skin in the game knows that trends do not develop overnight and the start of the week, though buoyant, may face downward pressure in subsequent sessions. One item that may or may not impact sentiment was the earnings report from KB Home (KBH), one of America's largest builders of new homes. The company reported revenues of $1.39 Billion and diluted earnings per share of $1.49, both of which fell short of estimates. According to CEO, Jeffrey Mezger, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer:
"Consumers are working through affordability concerns and uncertainties related to macroeconomic and geopolitical issues, which are causing them to move slowly in their homebuying decisions. Demand at the start of this Spring's selling season was more muted than what we have seen historically, despite a healthy level of traffic in our communities. In mid-February, we took steps to reposition our communities to offer the most compelling value, and buyers responded favorably to these adjustments. Although we missed our sales goals for the first quarter, we are encouraged by the significant improvement in weekly sales and normalizing absorption pace over the last five weeks." OK, things are about to pick up. So says the CEO. Raise your hand if you're buying that line of reasoning. Um, anybody? How about, "we slashed our prices and a few suckers ponied up." At a median price of $446,300, the only people buying KB's McMansions are those caught in the past or devoid of any rudimentary understanding of supply and demand economics. Prices have more than doubled since the brief bottom in 2009-10, thanks in large part to the Fed's aggressive zero interest rate policy and multiple rounds of money creation (QE). Not to be forgotten, the screaming fraud of pandemic stimulus raised new home prices by about a third in just two years (2020-2022).
Being the gold standard for ignoring the obvious, Wall Street will probably look right past the extreme unaffordability of housing that's become normalized over the past four years thanks to free-spending policies of Joe and Kamala and their colleagues in congress and step up to buy more stocks, because, as we all know, stocks never go down, except when they do. As noted in the edit at the start of this post, this is the 4,000th daily screed and nothing has changed. Wall Street remains possibly the most corrupt acreage on the planet (City of London vying for top honors) and deluded individuals continue to feed the beast, expecting their money to grow like it was fruit from a tree when the reality is that the currency has been debased to near worthlessness and their wealth is a grandiose fiction. Maybe the next 4,000 posts will offer some improvement.
At the Close, Monday, March 24, 2025:
Sunday, March 23, 2025, 11:10 am ET There are moments in which one has to question whether the entire financial system - particularly the stock market - isn't just one big rigged gentleman's game. Friday was one of those moments. Were it not for the market-wide rally off the morning lows, wherein the Dow was down more than 500 points, the NASDAQ was off by 200, and the S&P had slumped 60 points, these weekly results might all have been negatives, at least in the case of the NAZ and S&P, which would have resulted in five straight weekly losses.
Dow: +497.16 (+1.20%) Being that Friday was a quad-witching day, there were all manner of trades to be made, especially in the realm of options and futures, by which stocks could be guided in any direction, higher, lower, or both ways if need be. The case can be made that Friday's rally was nothing more than a massive short squeeze. Indeed, all short, day-long rallies of the past few weeks might easily be redefined as short squeezes, the maligned bulls getting a small dose of redemption by taking out the weakest hands, keeping those ravenous bears from further degradation of their precious assets. There's obviously more in play than the bruised egos of the powerful elite. Pension and retirement funds, IRAs, 401k plans, and the general well-being and "wealth effect" of the global village is tied to U.S. stock markets. When these assets get written down, the losses are felt far afield. It is thus in the best interests of the Wall Street horde and their muppet clients to keep stocks at premium levels, with valuations that are of the sky-high pie-in-the-sky variety, like Nvidia, Amazon, META, and the rest of the tech stocks, or more reasonable dividend-yielding types like some Dow stocks, maybe Boeing, or Walmart, Home Depot, Coca-Cola, IBM, et. al. Americans are easily amused and just as easily distracted or deceived. They assume Wall Street employs the best and brightest, after the government's intelligence and IRS types, of course. Residing at the top of the heap does not necessarily confer high moral grounding, however, a common misconception amongst the great unwashed. Americans used to trust its institutions: the government, the media, Wall Street. Now that many lies and deceptions of the past are being exposed, it's not a stretch to assume that trust is long since broken, but the lies and deception continue. Maybe there will be more truths exposed. Maybe not. But, like the neurotic paranoid attests, "just because you think you're being followed doesn't make it not true." Wealth effect. That's about as practical (for keeping the herd inside the fences) as trickle-down economics or geo-political domino theory. Chew on that Americans. Then check and see if your lunch money is all still in your pocket.
The major averages finished the week on a slightly positive note. Over the course of the past six weeks, however, stocks are still down significantly. The Dow Transports remain deeply red and the NASDAQ is still in what most people consider "correction territory," down -11.85% from December 16 highs. Though the other indices aren't quite as badly damaged, believing that the worst is over just because this week finished on a high note is delusional. Markets are quite obviously at the start of a bear market phase. In about a month's time (end April), the initial estimate of first quarter GDP will be released. Odds are that it's either going to be very weak, in the range of 0.5-1.5% growth or outright negative, possibly as negative as -2.6-3.5%. There's plenty of money sloshing around, so liquidity isn't a problem yet, but Americans having been ravaged by inflation the past few years while to government was overspending in order to make the economy appear robust and prosperous, the physics of equal and opposite effects are about to be sprung. Credit card and auto loan deficiencies are rising. Household income is stagnant at best and the effects of the DOGE cuts and other cost-saving measures have yet to be incorporated into the overall equation. Publicly-traded companies, as much as they are trading at perfection-level valuations, aren't wildly profitable. Some have issued profit and revenue warnings. Others are already suffering, with year-ago measures not up to par. Beyond tech stocks, which have been the hardest hit, financials and consumer discretionary sectors have been degraded. Restaurant chains are beginning to compete on price as inflation become less of a worry and deflation, the Fed's utmost worry, begins to materialize as spending slows and austerity becomes prudent. Under current conditions, stocks, in general, are less likely to rise than they are to decline further. Companies reporting earnings this week: Monday: (before open) Intuitive Machines (LUNR), Lucid Diagnostics (LUCD); (after close) Abivax (ABVX), KB Home (KBH), Dragonfly (DFLI) Tuesday: (before open) McCormick (MKC), Smithfield (SFD), Rumble (RUM), CanadianSolar (CSIQ); (after close) Corvus Pharmaceuticals (CRVS), Paysign (PAYS), Kolibri (KGEI), GameStop (GME) Wednesday: (before open) Chewy (CHWY), Paychex (PAYX), Cintas (CTAS), Dollar Tree ((DLTR); (after close) Petco (WOOF), Concentrix (CNXC), MicroVision (MVIS) Thursday: (before open) Bitfarms (BITF), Winnebago (WGO); (after close) Lululemon (LULU), Abacus Life (ABL) Friday: (before open) Katapult (KPLT), Super League (SLE). For economic indicators, the coming week offers flash PMI readings from S&P, along with the third estimate on U.S. Q4 GDP growth. Core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) for February comes Friday. The IPO market will be all about cloud computing firm CoreWeave (CRWV), expected to debut on the Nasdaq this week, looking to raise as much as $2.7 billion This IPO, being Nvidia-related, offers an acid test of the suspect AI trade.
The FOMC meeting last Tuesday and Wednesday did little to change expectations, sending yields on long-dated maturities lower. Indicating two 25 basis point cuts still to come this year, the Fed is pushing on a string against fiscal restraint on the government side. Beyond the Fed becoming less influential than it has been in maybe 25 years, fiscal policy is in the driver's seat. Bond vigilantes will set the tone. The spread on 2s-10s widened out to +31, a healthy level, but the overall curve is still flat on an historical basis. Spreads:
2s-10s
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
WTI crude oil gained for a second straight week, closing at $68.30 Friday, a solid gain from last week's closing price of 67.19. Crude remains under pressure with further downside risk. Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump up, from $3.04 last Sunday to the current $3.11, which, despite not being a huge bump, is concerning since gas prices haven't actually declined much since January and February. They were actually lower in November and December. The price hike could be the result of summer blends coming online or simply refiners making better profits. The federal government has begun refilling the depleted strategic oil reserve, which also could have contributed to the general increase. California remains at $4.61, the priciest gas in the country. Oklahoma, at $2.63, and Mississippi ($2.64) are the lowest. outside of Pennsylvania ($3.22), New England and East coast states all range between $2.85 (New Hampshire) and $3.05 (New York). Every state in the Southeast is under $3.00, including Florida, which comes in at $2.93. The Midwest is elevated while the West continues to have the highest prices. Along with California, Washington is the only state above $4.00, at $4.07. Oregon is at $3.70, Nevada ($3.68) and Arizona ($3.34) are next. Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in at least 33 U.S. states this week.
This week: $85,049.05 Bitcoin has not been over $100,00 since February 4. There's an even chance of it going back to that level as there is falling to around $65,000-$70,000.
Gold:Silver Ratio: 90.96; last week: 87.76 Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 2/23: $2,949.60
Silver price 2/23: $32.83 To the dismay of many stackers, silver backtracked this week just as gold was setting new records. The gold:silver ratio has been out of whack for decades, and one wonders if it will ever be normalized again. Silver, as it is still recognized as a monetary metal, has been suppressed much more virulently than gold, and continues to be. This weekend's gold:silver ratio of 90.96 screams, "buy silver." Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) was knocked back this week, to $40.52, a decline of $1.74 from the March 16 price of $42.26 per troy ounce.
This week was more or less a pause from the frenetic pace the past eight weeks since President Trump's inauguration. There is still time to adjust.
For the Week:
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