 | MONEY DAILY | Commentary on Stocks - Bonds - Gold - Silver - Crypto - Oil/Gas and more |
| HOME | PRICE GUIDE | STORE | BLOGS | SPORTS | BUSINESS | WILD SIDE | CONTACT | ARCHIVES |
Weekly Survey of Gold and Silver Prices
Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark
Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.
PRIOR COVERAGE:
|
Thursday, April 17, 2025, 9:11 am ET Stocks took another beating on Wednesday. Without a doubt, something is not right. Probably a lot of things aren't right. President Trump's unpredictable nature has the world on edge, and, as has been reiterated here more than enough times, markets do not like uncertainty. The brightest spot in the universe right now is probably the price of gold. It simply continues to rise and rise. Year-to-date, gold is up - at the overnight price of $3,364.20 - 29 percent, which is extraordinary and likely not yet finished. In consideration of the instability in world politics today, the price of gold could easily surpass $4000, even $5000, this year. The price of gold is giving every indication that the global economy is about to undergo a radical redesign, one that has gold at its core, because, more than 110 years since the establishment of the U.S. Federal Reserve, fiat currencies and the people who support them and suppress the value of true money - gold and silver - have had their day, run their course, and are ready to be put out to pasture, or, even better, led, kicking and screaming to the financial slaughterhouse. Conditions in the world are out of balance. The U.S. has lost prestige, due to its inability to honor its commitments. Europe is ready for a shallow grave. The days of colonial power having long passed, Asia is rising, as it should, shaking off the chains of central banks, free-floating currencies, fractional reserves, debt issuance and counterfeiting. The world needs stability rather than chaos, understanding instead of conflict, and, peace, not war. What is alarming is that major nations are gearing up for enlargement of military commitments. Russia is conscripting more young men than it has in 40 years. The proposed U.S. defense budget is over $1 trillion. China, already far ahead of its peers, has amassed the world's largest naval fleet and stands ready to defend itself from any and all who might oppose it. China's dominance in trade and finance is unmistakable. Certain elements of the United States government are having a difficult time accepting that. There are still far too many neocon voices and actors in the U.S. government, moron war hawks bent on domination and supremacy. It's not likely to work out well for them or for the American people. So now, rather than bombs and shells and death, the two great powers wage economic war. For now, that's fine, but one wonders where it leads. After markets closed Wednesday, Alcoa (AA) reported first quarter EPS that beat estimates, though revenue fell short. Shares were flat after markets closed. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) projected second quarter sales above estimates. Shares rose four percent in pre-market trading. United Health (UNH) sent Dow futures plummeting Thursday morning, as the company reported EPS of $7.20 that was short of estimates and lowered its fiscal year 2025 estimate of adjusted EPS to 26.00 to 26.50, well below consensus projections of $29.74. Shares of the Dow heavyweight were down 20 percent or more, with Dow futures down nearly 600 points (1.46%). Another Dow component, American Express (AXP), posted solid numbers as consumer spending remained robust. The stock was trending slightly lower in pre-market trade. DR Horton (DHI) posted fiscal second quarter EPS of $2.58, behind estimates for $2.67. The largest U.S. homebuilder also slashed fiscal 2025 forecasts, citing lagging demand for new homes. Shares of the company slipped three percent pre-market. Regions Financial (RF), Ally (ALLY), and Fifth Third Bank (FITB) all reported figures mostly in line with estimates. After Thursday's close, Netflix (NFLX) reports. No big names are reporting Friday, as the market is closed in observance of Good Friday. The shortened week probably is a relief to many traders weary from continued volatility, but it also pushed roughly $2 trillion in options expiring to Thursday, which might trigger even more volatility as another rough week comes to a close. As of Wednesday's closing bell, the Dow is down 543 points for the week and likely to fall even further. The NASDAQ is down 417, approaching its seventh weekly loss in the last nine. The S&P is down 87 points for the week, which, like the NASDAQ would be seven losers out of the last nine. Stock futures near 9:00 am ET: Dow: -552; NASDAQ: +150; S&P: +28. Initial unemployment claims were flat, but Housing Starts were down 11% month on month, but Building Permits were up 1.6%, a very mixed picture. Gold is near record highs, hitting $3365 overnight. Silver got as high as $33.01, but has since tailed off.
At the Close, Wednesday, April 16, 2025:
Wednesday, April 16, 2025, 9:09 am ET Major indices in the U.S. displayed a classic bear market pattern on Tuesday, ramping higher from the open only to lose momentum as the day progressed, ending with small losses on each. That specific, repeating pattern has reaffirmed the bear market condition repeatedly over the past months, especially mid-February forward. Stock futures are looking a bit sheepish heading into Wednesday's session. The majors were down sharply overnight, but were suddenly boosted around 4:30 am ET. This is one of the reasons Money Daily remains skeptical about stocks in the current environment and has been suggesting that passive investors take some profits at this juncture. Entire markets can turn on a dime, overnight or even during cash sessions, and having a custodial account with limited availability to trade or direct investments can cause substantial under-performance. After Tuesday's close, United Airlines (UAL) stunned the after-market, disclosing adjusted earnings per share of $0.91 in the March quarter, compared to a loss of $0.15 per share in Q1 2024. On a reported basis, the company posted a net income of $387 million, compared to a loss of $124 million in the year-ago quarter. The company roundly beat street estimates, sending shares of the airline soaring, up as much as eight percent. Early Wednesday morning, Dutch chip machinery manufacturer, ASML, missed Q1 order expectations, citing tariff uncertainty. Company CEO Christophe Fouquet said, "...the recent tariff announcements have increased uncertainty in the macro environment and the situation will remain dynamic for a while." Investors concurred, sending shares down four percent. Abbott Laboratories (ABT) slipped as 1Q sales missed expectations. Dow component Travelers (TRV) reported net income of $395 million in the first quarter despite heavy losses due to wildfires in California earlier this year. Despite blowout EPS of $1.91, investors are taking profits, sending shares down two percent in pre-market trading. The big story overnight, however, involved Nvidia (NVDA). The chip-maker was hit with a $5.5 billion charge over sales to China. The stock was down five percent as the tariff tiff between the U.S. and China continues to escalate. U.S. retail sales soared in March, up 1.4 percent from February, and up 4.6 percent from March 2024. March Industrial Production (+0.7%, February) and Capacity Utilization (78.2%, February) are out at 9:15 am ET., but are not expected to move markets much. Futures are down, with the Dow off 100; S&P, -50; NASDAQ, -315 at 9:00 am Gold is again ripping higher ($3,328) along with silver ($33.12). WTI crude oil is above $62/barrel.
At the Close, Tuesday, April 15, 2025:
Tuesday, April 15, 2025, 9:40 am ET After one of the most turbulent weeks in stock market memory, trading on Monday was rather more subdued. There were no major announcements from the White House on tariffs or any other pressing matter, and earnings reports from Goldman Sachs (GS) and M&T Bank (MTB) suggested that financial institutions were not stressed, giving the markets a leg up to start the week. There was some of the usual up-and-down that have typified stock trading in recent weeks, as the major avrages rose at the outset and gave most or all of it back before rallying in the afternoon, though the final minutes were a dissappointment. The Dow gave up 200 points in the final half hour, with the NASDAQ and S&P following it lower. Regardless of the pattern, stocks ended the session with reasonably good gains. Tuesday has first quarter earnings from Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), PNC (PNC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Erikson (ERIC) and supermarket chain Albertson's (ACI) before the open to digest, along with Import and Export Prices and the NY Fed's Empire Manufacturing Survey. The bank stocks: BAC, C, PNC, all reported reasonably good quarters. Stocks of the companies were positiv prior to the open, though only marginally. BAC was the best, up more than two percent. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), seen as a gauge for consumer spending, delievered a small beat with EPS of $2.77, but the stock was lower by about one percent in pre-market activity despite the company raising its full year sales guidance. Investors are seemingly a little gun shy after being rolled and rollicked over the past few weeks. The Empire Fed index showed improvement, though still negative. Some downside came from Albertsons, which delivered an earnings beat but warned their annual profit forecast may not meet expectations. Shares of the company were seen down six to seven percent in pre-market trading. U.S. import prices decreased 0.1 percent in March following an 0.2-percent increase in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Tuesday morning. Prices for U.S. exports were unchanged in March following increases of 0.5 percent in February and 1.4 percent in January. Those numbers had little impact on market psychology since they were from before Trump's April 2 tariff announcement. Earnings reports, while generally good, not great, thus far, are likely to have little impact on stock prices as sentiment has shifted, the focus now clearly on the future, not past results. Futures flattened out approaching the open. Gold was catching a bid. Tuesday's trading appears to be clouded by recession fears and uncertainty over the future of tariffs. Add in doubts as to President Trump's effectiveness at dealing with Ukraine, Russia, and the Middle East and the recipe is classic FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt). Who would have guessed.
At the Close, Monday, April 14, 2025:
Sunday, April 13, 2025, 12:45 pm ET This week's historic stock market moves - both up and down - resulted in massive gains for the majors, but were counterbalanced by turmoil in fixed income, as long-dated treasury yields exploded higher and spreads blew out. The ultimate folly of the current condition would be to predict what happens next since tariffs, despite President Trump's call for a pause on implementation of retaliatory ones, are still a matter of global concern that remains unresolved. Conditions in Ukraine Russian success in its Special Military Operation as opposed to any cease-fire or peace plan. Europe has pledged $23 billion more in support of Ukraine while the United States has remained still regarding support for the embattled nation. An announcement by President Trump to cease funding and support for Ukraine would probably speed along prospects for peace despite Europe's desire for continuation of the war. The Middle East remains a powder keg. Dr. Jeffrey Sachs, Jeffrey Sachs delivered a sobering message at Saturday's Antalya Diplomacy Forum in Antalya, Turkey. Sachs is director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University and has been an adviser to the United Nations for decades. His words should be taken very seriously.
Despite the record-setting rally of Wednesday and Friday's follow-on gains, stocks finished the week lower than the close on Wednesday and still down significantly from prior highs and year-to-date. So far in 2025, the Dow is down 5.48%, the S&P down 8.81%, and the NASDAQ, -13.39%. Dow Transports remain the laggard, down 15.64 year-to-date and -23.43% from November highs, still a bear market. The NASDAQ is still off 17.10% from the record high of December 18 (20,173.89) and the S&P is down 12.71 in less than two months. While definitions of corrections and bear markets are touted at -10% and -20% respectively by the mainstream financial media, acknowledged experts stick to the indicators from decades of experience, defining a correction as a decline of 5-15% and a bear market anything greater than that. Judging by the performance of all indices and taking into account primary trend reversal in the Dow Transports, confirmed by the Dow Industrials, there is no doubt that a bear market is in place. Thus, anybody putting faith in the hockey stick save of Wednesday, April 9, as an indication of good times ahead is likely to be disappointed in weeks and months ahead. Bear markets generally have a duration of nine to 18 months, and this one, kicked off at the February 19 peak on the S&P, has at least another seven months to run. Confidence has slipped and is a much better indicator than hope. Turmoil that remains unresolved in global markets and especially in treasuries is as good an indicator as any that the good times from last week will not persist for long. The week ahead will be punctuated by earnings releases from some of the most important companies in the U.S., including five Dow components, a generous dose of bank and financials, and the most important semiconductor company in the world, Taiwan Semi. Monday: (before open) Goldman Sachs (GS), M&T Bank (MTB); (after close) BioStem (BSEM), Pinnacle Financial Partners (PNFP); Applied Blockchain (APLD); Tuesday: (before open) Bank of America (BAC), Ericsson (ERIC), Citibank (C), PNC (PNC), Albertsons (ACI), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ); (after close) J.B.Hunt (JBHT), Interactive Brokers (IBKR); United Airlines (UAL) Wednesday: (before open) USBancorp (USB), Abbott Labs (ABT), Progressive (PGR), Travelers (TRV), ASML (ASML); (after close) Alcoa (AA), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Great Southern Bank (GSBC), Bank of the Ozarks (OZK), CSX (CSX) Thursday: (before open) Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Regions Financial (RF), Ally (ALLY), DR Horton (DHI), Fifth Third Bank (FITB), Anmerican Express (AXP), United Health (UNH); (after close) Netflix (NFLX). The economic calendar features Federal Reserve officials Bostic and Barkin speaking on Monday. Import and Export Price Index on Tuesday. Wednesday's offerings include March Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and Business Inventories. Thursday provides Jobless Claims, Housing Starts, Building Permits, and the Philly Fed.
Even a cursory glance at the changes in yield on notes and bonds - from 1-year out to 30 years - reveals the degree to which the treasury market was disrupted over the past week. 18 basis points on the 1-year, 28 on the 2-year, 47 on the 10-year, and 44 basis points on the 30-year over the course of just one week demonstrates clearly that the most important market in world finance was in extreme turmoil. During the week there were rumors of an unwinding basis trade and the imminent demise of a hedge fund or multiple funds, which may explain President Trump's quick reversal of his tariff agenda, suspending the implementation of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days this past Wednesday. While stocks staged an historic rally on the news, treasuries sold off, with yields increasing from Tuesday to Wednesday, remaining elevated into the weekend, suggesting, at the very least, that whatever issues had arisen had not been rectified and remain unresolved. This condition sets up another volatile week ahead. Spreads remain high, with 2s-10s blowing out to +52 basis points, and full spectrum exploding from a multi-month low of 5 last week, to an extreme +38 basis points as of Friday's close. Spreads:
2s-10s
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years) Oil/Gas $61.48 was the closing price of WTI crude oil on Friday, just slightly higher than last week's finish at $62.32. If anything was constant through the past number of tumultuous weeks it was oil's price decline. There is almost no indication that the barrelhead price of oil is going to increase, and drivers should expect prices at the pump to move lower at a rapid pace unless refiners choose to greedily increase margins, a prospect that would be damaging to the U.S. economy, thus, unlikely to occur. The expectation is for the national average to fall below $3.00 within the next month and possibly fall further as a combination of reduced demand and oversupply takes hold. Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.16, down six cents from last week. Gas prices this week were down across the country, led by California is dropping four cents this week to $4.86 after a run-up over the past few weeks. Oklahoma, at $2.69, is the cheapest, followed by Mississippi and Tennessee ($2.70), all lower than last week. South Carolina checks in at $2.73, folloed by Louisiana and Texas ($2.76). Alabama ($2.79) and Arkansas ($2.80) round out the lows in the Southeast. Georgia dropped back below $3.00, to $2.95. Florida remains the outlier, at $3.07. Outside of Pennsylvania ($3.36) and Maryland ($3.19), New England and East coast states all range between $2.81 (New Hampshire) and $3.07 (Delaware). New York was down two cents, at $3.07. Midwest states are led by Illinois ($3.41), though the price is eight cents lower than last week. Ohio ($2.97) joins Kentucky ($2.81), Kansas ($2.85), Missouri ($2.90), and Iowa ($2.99) are over $3.00 a gallon, though only by a few cents. The West continues to have the highest prices. Along with California, Washington is the only state above $4.00, stable at at $4.34, though Oregon ($3.95) and Nevada ($3.90) are dangerously close but will likely see price declines shortly. Idaho is at $3.30, while neighboring Utah is $3.16, both down three cents through the week. Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in at a few more states this week, with 23 hitting the mark as opposed to just 15 last week. Prospects for lower gas prices are very good now, though it's likely going to be a little while before Trump gets them down where he'd like them, with a national average around $2.60 to $2.75. On the supply side, the president's "drill, baby, drill" directive has been met with yawns and inconsistent support by oil producers who are reluctant to spend money on new projects when prices are, or could be, falling. While depressed oil and gas prices are a boon to the overall economy, they hurt profits at the major drillers and refiners, prompting a general wait-and-see attitude currently. Along with his tariff regime, the path to lower gas prices will likely come from lower demand with some contribution from greater Middle East supply.
This week: $84,401.71 Bitcoin bounced back this week, like just about everything else. Bitcoin has not been over $100,00 since February 4, more than two months ago, but there's speculation that if it held $75,500 - which it did - that the price of bitcoin would be headed to $250,000. That's quite the bold call. Whether it actually does so or not depends largely on the continuing chaotic condition, which seems to have gripped the entire planet. The argument that bitcoin, in ways similar to gold and silver, provides a safety net against confusion, far, greed, and assorted other emotional tics upon the global financial system, is, in itself, a major speculation. This is an asset with a 16-year history, based upon a white paper authored by an anonymous source, somebody named Satoshi Nakamoto, which is probably an anagram with a hidden meaning. While speculation is always and everywhere part art and part math, the bitcoin speculation has to be considered one of the more extreme and dangerous of recent history. The past is littered with stories of tulips, John Law's gamble on Southeastern American land, beaning babies, and baseball stars (Barry Bonds, Mark McGuire, and Sammy Sosa come to mind), which have one thing in common: they were all spectacular investments until they collapsed. With bitcoin, the appropriate phrase would be, "this time is different," a dubious sentiment.
Gold:Silver Ratio: 101.12; last week: 103.53 Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 3/16: $2,993.60
Silver price 3/16: $34.11 Gold's rebound has been nothing short of spectacular, rising nearly $200 in just the past week, with the April 9 gain from $3,018 to $3,141 a sensational $122 in just 24 hours on the criminal COMEX. Obviously, Trump's assault on the global financial apparatus had some people wrong-footed and others just plain wrong. If this week's activity in precious metals was a flight to safety and surety, there were more than just a few participants. The next leg higher (and there will be one, whether PMs pull back from these levels or not) will likely be led by silver, which leapt past gold in terms of percentage gain on Friday. While gold on April 11 was up 2.44%, silver gained 4.67%, nearly double the advance. A gold:silver ratio over 100 - which is what it's been for two weeks running - should prove to be a very short-lived event. The ratio has been bounding between 88 and 92 since late December. As the price of gold was sprinting higher, silver struggled to keep up. The GSR is approaching levels seen only at the beginning of the pandemic of 2020, which lasted only two months at levels above 100, from mid-March to mid-May, before pulling back. Whichever direction prices proceed, the GSR is likely to stay somewhat elevated before reverting toward the mean, which is around 75. The absolute kicker to anything and everything concerning PMs is the unpredictability of the ongoing situation. Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rebounded sharply, to $41.14, gaining $2.57 from the April 6 price of $38.57 per troy ounce.
Like it or not, President Trump, nor any other individual or group of men and women, can solve all the world's problems. A period of uncertainty has been in effect for the better part of the last three decades and is not likely to soon be resolved soon. The continued rise in the price of gold since the middle of October, 2022, which has nearly doubled since, is probably the single best indicator of the increased level of uncertainty on a global basis. To remain vigilant and prepared for any circumstance is hardly conducive to any kind of reasonable expectations, though it remains always and everywhere better to light a candle than to curse the darkness.
At the Close, Friday, April 11, 2025:
For the Week:
All information relating to the content of magazines presented in the Collectible Magazine Back Issue Price Guide has been independently sourced from published works and is protected under the copyright laws of the United States of America. All pages on this web site, including descriptions and details are copyright 1999-2024 Downtown Magazine Inc., Collectible Magazine Back Issue Price Guide. All rights reserved.
|
