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Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.

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STAGFLATION

Friday, April 26, 2024, 9:30 am ET

The beatings will continue until morale improves. - some NAZI.

Thursday's meltdown and subsequent regain was rather amusing. For instance, the Dow was down more than 700 points at 10:00 am, then rallied the rest of the session, erasing nearly half of its loss. The NASDAQ and S&P were even more fun. The NASDAQ was down 357 points right at the open, but ended up losing only 100. S&P was down 80 points early, ended with a loss of 23, like there wasn't anything seriously wrong with inflation returning with a vengeance and GDP posting a suspect (even at that low level) 1.6% rise in the first quarter. Government numbers are complete nonsense.

Anybody with two brain cells to rub together probably understands what a huge problem inflation and stagnation are when they appear simultaneously, resulting in "STAGFLATION." Wall Street seeks to avoid mention of it and today will focus entirely on Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT), as two of the Magnificent 7 turned in stellar first quarter results.

Alphabet's quarterly dividend of 20 cents per share will be paid June 17..

That's fine, especially if you are an executive of one of these firms or a congressional shareholder, on the receiving end of stock gains, dividends and lavish campaign contributions. You have not a care in the world.

If, however, you're not, maybe the prices of grocery items has you a little frazzled. Maybe you're worried about maxing out your credit cards. Maybe you are wondering if one of your five roommates in your $3,000/month apartment is going to steal your stuff or maybe kill you in your sleep. Despite Wall Street's unbridled enthusiasm (or, "irrational exuberance," as former - and still alive - Fed Chair Alan Greenspan called it back in the late 90s) for all things tech and AI, many Americans aren't exactly dining on filet mignon and sipping expensive wines on their heated verandas.

No, stagflation is a real problem and the Federal Reserve is both the primary cause of it and the supposed solution to the mess they helped create. Here's a news flash: they can't and won't fix it. The best way to fix what they've broken, that being the U.S. economy, is to get rid of them, as in "End the Fed."

Debt-based currency is at the root of all problems. The Fed and the U.S. government are acting, in just about every matter, like barbarian warlords, sanctioning or making war against those who do not comply with their wishes, those who do not want to use the U.S. dollar as their trading currency. Big tech companies - especially Google - act in a similar manner towards the general public and users of their tech. Don't comply, suffer. That's policy.

It's bullshit and will come back to bite the United States and its Western allies in the ass, that being their citizenry. Leaders, executives, congress, et. al., remain unaccountable for their actions. The demise of the West is already happening and the pace of disturbingly bad outcomes are accelerating.

That's it for today. Have a pleasant weekend.

At the Close, Thursday, April 25, 2024:
Dow: 38,085.80, -375.12 (-0.98%)
NASDAQ: 15,611.76, -100.99 (-0.64%)
S&P 500: 5,048.42, -23.21 (-0.46%)
NYSE Composite: 17,731.56, -26.53 (-0.15%)



It's All Downhill From Here; First Quarter GDP Disappoints at +1.6%; Futures Slump

Thursday, April 25, 2024, 9:20 am ET

Everything peaked at the end of March. Well, almost everything.

The Dow, S&P 500, Germany's DAX, France's CAC, Japan's NIKKEI, all made new all-time highs at the end of the first quarter. The NASDAQ topped out in March, but managed to make it a double top on April 11. Oddly enough, England's FTSE just reached an all-time high on Wednesday and is putting more wood on the fire today.

China's SSE Composite Index hit the high for the year, which isn't saying much, the index having hit a four-year low in February. But, that's China, and that's besides the point.

Most of the stock markets in the important Western economies peaked and have been bleeding out since the beginning of April. Despite the hard rallies Monday and Tuesday of this week, the Dow is still 1,300 points off its high, the S&P down nearly 200, and the NASDAQ is off about 670 points.

Getting back to those prior highs is going to be a heavy lift, especially the way first quarter earnings have been presented, many either weak and just barely making estimates or missing, or weakening and guiding lower.

After the close Wednesday, Meta Platforms (META), home of Facebook, Instagram, and a host of other projects on planet Zuckerberg, spooked investors when it announced that the company planned to make aggressive investments in Artificial Intelligence (AI) over the coming years. While the company's profits were solid - more than doubling those from a year ago - making a big commitment to AI brought back memories of META's recent, expensive failure at promoting virtual reality.

Zuckerberg seems to have a fetish for fantasy. He can't seem to cope with reality just as it is and that makes people nervous. The company practically prints money, but he seems to be hell-bent on squandering it. VR was a bust and AI appears to be more faith than fact. We'll all have to wait and see. For now, shares are down 15% in pre-market trading.

IBM also reported, announcing a first quarter miss resulting in the stock shedding about nine percent prior to the opening bell. Chipolte Mexican Grill was a winner, solidly beating estimates. Shares are three to four percent higher overnight, but the stock price (around $3,000 per share) is in the same expensive company as most of its entrees.

Ford's (F) first-quarter net income fell 24% from a year ago as the company's combustion engine vehicle unit saw revenue and sales decline. The automaker said it made $1.33 billion from January through March, compared with $1.76 billion a year earlier. EPS was 49 cents, topping estimates of 43 cents. The stock is up, but still cheap at just over $13 in early action.

Elsewhere, Caterpillar (CAT) beat, and American Airlines (AAL) posted a loss of $312 million, or 48 cents per share, in the first quarter, compared with a profit of $10 million, or 2 cents per share, a year earlier. Adjusting for one-time items, American lost $226 million, or 34 cents per share, but the company issued positive guidance for the second quarter, promising between $1.15 and $1.45 per share in the second quarter. The public is eating it up, sending shares higher by five percent, pre-market.

All the earnings reports came before the government announced the advance estimate of first quarter GDP at 1.6%, below even the most pessimistic forecasts. Most analysts were looking for GDP growth of around 2.4%, so this is a huge miss and amplifies how stocks took advantage of rosy projections in the first quarter, similar to mainstream propaganda like Ukraine "winning" and "safe and effective" vaccines.

Even worse, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 3.4 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 3.7 percent, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent in the prior quarter.

Upon the GDP announcement, stock futures, which were already deep in the red, fell further, with Dow futures down more than 450 points, NASDAQ futures off 290, and S&P futures down more than 64 points. Gold and silver swung to the upside.

Not only is the U.S. economy sputtering along, prices keep rising and inflation is back with a vengeance. It now would not be surprising to see the Fed announce an rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting next week (April 30 - May 1). This report is likely to finally put to rest the snake oil rate cuts that was sold by Wall Street know-it-alls and promoted by the Fed itself.

The U.S. economy has stalled out, the only fuel being the excessive spending by the federal government, on track for a $2 trillion deficit this fiscal year, and likely more.

In coming months, be prepared for a shift in consumer prices as runaway inflation ends up in outright recession, just in time to re-elect Joe Biden and the rest of the wastrels in congress. Whoopie!

At the Close, Wednesday, April 24, 2024:
Dow: 38,460.92, -42.77 (-0.11%)
NASDAQ: 15,712.75, +16.11 (+0.10%)
S&P 500: 5,071.63, +1.08 (+0.02%)
NYSE Composite: 17,758.08, -34.68 (-0.19%)



Tesla Shares Jump as Company Misses Expectations; Senate Approves $95 Billion Foreign Aid Package; Early SNAP Benefits

Wednesday, April 24, 2024, 9:28 am ET

Wall Street stocks rallied for a second straight session Tuesday, as earnings reports ramp up to a fever pitch. Overlooked by most of the "Dow 40,000" party hatters was Pepsico's less-than encouraging report that saw the stock lose 5.24 points (2.97%). Pepsico (PEP) mentioned in its earnings release that U.S. sales were flat to lower by five percent, citing Americans' reluctance to purchase overpriced Cheetos and soda, especially by people on welfare and/or fixed income (retirees).

Maybe that's why some SNAP benefits for May were "accidentally" released early in Tennessee. Gotta get those people buying chips and stuff, ya know.

On a more serious note, the Senate approved on Tuesday, all of the $95 billion in graft funding for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, most of it going towards replenishing drawn down U.S. stockpiles and into the hands of government officials in selected countries, lest we not forget U.S. politicians, lobbyists, and 10% for the Big Guy.

Unpopular progressive extremist Rick Newman reinforced his reputation as a useful idiot for the MIC, asking the sappily-sarcastic question on Yahoo! Finance, "What US taxpayers will get for another $61 billion to Ukraine?"

Newman's own brand of propaganda gets the MIC seal of approval and probably an endorsement and "attaboy" from Chuck Schumer. Who needs journalism when we have shills like Rick Newman and senators like the one from Israel New York?

After the close Tuesday, Tesla (TSLA) reported first quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.45, below the $0.52 estimated, on revenue of $21.30 billion, which missed forecasts for $22.3 billion, according to Bloomberg data. Revenue fell 9% from a year ago, Tesla's first drop in four years.

Tesla reported $1.2 billion in operating profit in the first quarter and $1.5 billion in adjusted net income. Both numbers were short of forecasts and down more than 50% from a year ago.

Despite those sobering numbers, Tesla shares rocketed higher in post-and-pre-market trading, up 11-12% on word from Elon Musk that the company is accelerating its timetable for producing cheaper cars. It's exactly this kind of blather and knee-jerking that makes reporting financial news with a straight face so difficult.

Futures are up, gold and silver down.

The party will likely not end until November.

At the Close, Tuesday, April 23, 2024:
Dow: 38,503.69, +263.71 (+0.69%)
NASDAQ: 15,696.64, +245.33 (+1.59%)
S&P 500: 5,070.55, +59.95 (+1.20%)
NYSE Composite: 17,792.76, +190.57 (+1.08%)



Stocks Rally After House Passes Ukraine, Israel Aid Packages; Gold, Silver Slammed; Earnings on Deck

Tuesday, April 23, 2024, 9:30 am ET

With the passage of $95 billion in military and economic assistance to the likes of Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, the United States House of Representatives set the stage for Monday's "America is Back, Baby!" rally and the green light to buy stocks and sell gold and silver.

The childish behavior manifested in financial markets is another reminder of the utter and complete failure of Western government, its corrupt, failing economies, and the absence of rational leadership on a national and international level.

One can put whatever spin one likes to explain Monday's snap-back rally. Whether big money moves multiple markets or not, the final result is the same. Stocks ended a long string of declines, gold and silver (probably the object goal) were smacked down, and the all-clear signal was sounded.

A couple of footnotes on Monday's action include the worst one-day loss for gold in over two years, silver down from Friday's close of $29.03 to $27.51, a whopping 5.24% decline. The April 22 Shanghai AM and PM gold fixes were $2,449.71 and $2,427.01, respectively, while gold on the COMEX sank from $2,404.70 to $2,341.10 in New York and London. It's becoming more than obvious that the rift between East and West is reaching far beyond military battle fronts and deeper into financial circles.

With gold and silver prices being set (fixed) in both London and Shanghai, there's ample space for arbitrage between the two. London's AM/PM gold fixes were $2,361.45 / $2,334.95 on Monday, a spread approaching $100 per ounce. As the COMEX paper contracts are largely undeliverable in physical bullion, Shanghai's prices are more practical and realistic. One way of looking at the pricing differential is that Shanghai includes premia unaccounted for in the West. On Sunday, the median price for a one ounce gold coin was $2,501.99; a one ounce gold bar fetched a median price of $2,485.30. Rigging the price via derivative contracts which are routinely settled in fiat (dollars, euros) currency instead of actual physical delivery is eventually going to set off a firestorm in which gold will rocket by as much as $200 in a single day and not look back, the same applied to silver on a proportional basis.

The exact timing of such an event is next to impossible to pin down, but that time is fast approaching. COMEX vaults have been drained significantly. Eventually, unable to fulfill its obligations, COMEX riggers will default, sending gold and silver prices to what Mike Maloney refers to as Unaffordium and Unobtainium. The price will be extreme, and none will be available. All that needs to happen is for enough traders to stand for physical delivery at once. Like a bank run, the COMEX will shut its doors as U.S. banks did in the 1930s and the London Gold Pool did in March, 1968.

H.M. Treasury Press Statement on the London Gold Market. The United States was unable to sustain its commitments to the London Gold Pool and asked, late in the evening of 14 March 1968, that the Gold Pool be suspended. The British Government, at 1am the next morning, complied with the American request and temporarily closed the London Gold Market. The London Gold Pool itself was dissolved on 17 March 1968. When the London Gold Market opened two week later, a two-tiered market for gold became operational. It consisted on the one-hand of transactions between central banks at the official price of $35/oz and a private market where gold was much more expensive.

It's not like it's never happened before. It has, and it will happen again. The only question is when?

Beyond the intricacies of gold now taking precedence over U.S. treasuries as the ultimate Tier 1 reserve for central banks, the House, in addition to passing bills funding more war and keeping the economies of Ukraine and Israel from collapsing entirely (probably until the U.S. November elections), the House apparently punted on another bill, aptly called the REPO Act, which would all the U.S. to seize Russia's now-frozen assets in U.S. banks. Of roughly $300 billion that has been frozen since February, 2022, about $6 billion is in the United States.

This NBC article says the House passed the bill, while this updated article (apparently from the same reporting), says the House is preparing to vote on the measure.

Further clarification is needed, though according to the official congress.gov website, H.R.4175 - REPO for Ukrainians Act, sponsored by Republican Rep. Mike McCaul (R-TX-10), the bill did not make it to the floor for a vote. Good thing. It's a very, very, very bad idea. Freezing assets is one thing. Stealing them is altogether a different animal, with possibly stunning, outrageous consequences.

With U.S. markets opening shortly, the focus will be returning to stocks, especially those reporting first quarter earnings, including today, at various times, Visa (V), Tesla (TSLA), PepsiCo (PEP), Texas Instruments (TXN), Philip Morris (PM), UPS (UPS), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Mattel (MAT), and General Motors (GM).

Futures are up, gold and silver continue to be beaten like rented mules.

It's quite the show.

At the Close, Monday, April 22, 2024:
Dow: 38,239.98, +253.58 (+0.67%)
NASDAQ: 15,451.31, +169.30 (+1.11%)
S&P 500: 5,010.60, +43.37 (+0.87%)
NYSE Composite: 17,602.19, +143.42 (+0.82%)



WEEKEND WRAP: NASDAQ Slaughtered; Dow Near UNCH for Year; Gold Makes Another Record High, Silver Follows; More War Funding from Congress

Sunday, April 21, 2024, 12:34 pm ET

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

While the exact origin of this phrase remains a matter of controversy, often attributed to Benjamin Disraeli, Mark Twain, or even Walter Bagehot, there's little doubt to its accuracy in describing the operation of governments to obfuscate, distort, and often obliterate the truth.

Such is where the world stands, between and betwixt continuing conflicts, military, industrial, financial, and otherwise, a schism unlike any that has been seen in centuries between East and West developing with dangerous alacrity on both sides.

"In war, truth is the first casualty." - likely Aeschylus, cica 550 BC

That seems to be the case as the U.S. House of Representatives passed on Saturday a series of bills amounting to some $95 billion in direct and (mostly) indirect military, economic, and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, Israel, and the Pacific Rim, particularly Taiwan.

Bombastic statements by Sunday talk show guests proclaiming a victory for "democracy" and the immediate turning of the tides shade the truth to extreme degrees. On FoxNews Sunday, turncoat Lindsay Graham stated unequivocally "We're at war," when we are, in fact, not. Meanwhile, nobody seems willing to discuss how the NIKKEI stumbled into a correction, or the Dow nearly gave up all of its 2024 gains, or how the NASDAQ has shed seven percent since April 11, or 5.52% just this week.


Stocks

It would be a grave error to not pay close attention to earnings reports this week as no fewer than four of the Magnificent Seven stocks will issue, starting with Tesla (TSLA) Tuesday after the close. Meta Platforms (META) reports after the close Wednesday. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG) announce Thursday, also after the closing bell.

It's interesting to note that these important companies all report after the close of trading on their respective dates. Could this be by design, to give markets additional time to adjust? Conspiratorial minds want to know.

Here's the rest of the earnings lineup:

Monday, April 22: Verizon (VZ), Truist (TFC), Nucor (Nue), SAP (SAP).

Tuesday, April 23: Visa (V), Tesla (TSLA), PepsiCo (PEP), Texas Instruments (TXN), Philip Morris (PM), UPS (UPS), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Mattel (MAT), General Motors (GM).

Wednesday, April 24: Ford Motor (F), IBM (IBM), AT&T (T), Boeing (BA), Meta Platforms (META), Chipotle (CMG), General Dynamics (GD), Hilton (HLT).

Thursday, April 25: Merck (MRK), Caterpillar (CAT), Comcast (CMCSA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Intel (INTC), Altria Group (MO).

Friday, April 26: Chevron (CVX), Exxon Mobil (XOM), AbbVie (ABBV), Colgate-Palmolive (CL).

This is the biggest week for earnings overall, with about 35% of all S&P 500 companies reporting.

Stocks took a serious beating this past week, especially the NASDAQ, as tech stocks fell completely out of favor. The NAZ suffered its worst weekly loss in at least two years, losing more than five percent. The Dow came within a few points of losing all gains for the year. Even after Friday's counter-intuitive 211-point rally (while the NASDAQ and S&P were being slaughtered), the Dow's gains for the year are just 0.72%. By the end of the week, NASDAQ was up just 3.50%, and the S&P ahead only 4.73% for the year.

The NIKKEI entered correction territory on an intra-day basis. Wheels are falling off Westernized economies, but, but, BUT, muh funding for Ukraine!

Senate passage of the war party's bills is virtually assured as is Sleepy Joe's signature. Stocks will likely get a bit of a boost, courtesy of the federal government largesse to other countries and the U.S. MIC.


Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date 1 Mo 2 Mo 3 Mo 4 Mo 6 Mo 1 Yr
03/15/2024 5.52 5.48 5.48 5.41 5.38 5.05
03/22/2024 5.51 5.47 5.46 5.40 5.34 4.98
03/28/2024 5.49 5.48 5.46 5.42 5.38 5.03
04/05/2024 5.47 5.50 5.43 5.41 5.34 5.05
04/12/2024 5.48 5.50 5.45 5.42 5.36 5.13
04/19/2024 5.49 5.51 5.45 5.44 5.39 5.17

Date 2 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 7 Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 30 Yr
03/15/2024 4.72 4.51 4.33 4.33 4.31 4.55 4.43
03/22/2024 4.59 4.36 4.20 4.22 4.22 4.47 4.39
03/28/2024 4.59 4.40 4.21 4.20 4.20 4.45 4.34
04/05/2024 4.73 4.54 4.38 4.39 4.39 4.65 4.54
04/12/2024 4.88 4.70 4.54 4.53 4.50 4.73 4.61
04/19/2024 4.97 4.81 4.66 4.65 4.62 4.83 4.72


Spread on 2s-10s remained in the expansionist safety zone (-35) that had maintained since February. 5s, 7s, and 10s remain dis-inverted (normalized, lower) against the 30-year. Full spectrum spread was pushed another 10 basis points higher, to -77, now in the danger zone for stocks (above -85, i.e., less negative) that was in effect August through October of 2023. The effect of potential normalization of rates was evidenced clearly by the NASDAQ's descent this past week, and to a lesser extent on the S&P index.

Treasury yields have been inverted to some extent for over two years now, owing to the perverse nature of the U.S. economy, almost fully devoid of industrial scale manufacturing other than for military purposes, built on the back of phony statistics and fake fiat currency that is rapidly being debased.

With growing evidence that rate cuts suggested by the Fed back in October and again in December are not going to materialize, the yield curve is tightening as the Fed begins losing control of the long end. Rates have been rising steadily since the beginning of the year (30-year bond, Jan. 3, 4.05%) as foreign demand begins to evaporate. China, which holds $775 billion of treasuries, has been gradually reducing its exposure, to a point at which the United Kingdom (England) is soon to become the second-largest holder after Japan, the clear leader.

As China continues its efforts to replace U.S. treasuries as its primary reserve with gold it remains the only BRICS+ country in the top 10 holders. India is #12, with a mere $236 billion. China's disuse of U.S. fiat will proceed slowly, as is their procedure. Any sudden departure would send longer-dated maturities into a tailspin, sending yields much higher. As the U.S. continues to threaten BRICS+ countries with sanctions and tariffs, the reserve currency status of the dollar becomes less dominant by the day. Government policies are acting like a wrecking ball to reserve currency status, reflected in higher rates and higher prices for gold.

As previously reported by Money Daily here, Japan and South Korea are soon to be selling treasuries to shore up their battered currencies, which will put pressure on long rates, effectively sending yields higher. The degree and timing elements are being coordinated with clueless Janet Yellen at Treasury. Five percent on the two-year is a near-certainty short term. 30-year bonds may top 5.25% within six weeks. Indeed, all maturities may rise above five percent within months. Things are more than a little out of control.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77


Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil actually closed lower again this week, down from $84.86 last week to Friday's close of $82.11. The Iran-Israel tit-for-tat appears to be at a temporary stalemate, though approval of more war-making funds for Israel by the U.S. House - now sent up to the senate and imposter president - adds to the oil price drama. Additionally, Biden's gang has signaled that they're preparing to further drain the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to keep fuel prices contained. That strategy has worked in the past, but reserves are becoming dangerously low.

Gasbuddy.com reports the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.67, a high of more than six-months, up six cents from last week.

California remains the most expensive place to fuel up, with a gallon costing $5.42 on Sunday, down two cents from last week. Pennsylvania is tops in the Northeast, higher by another 10 cents, to $3.82. Prices remained elevated in the Mideast leader, Illinois, down six cents to $3.91 a gallon. Neighboring Indiana is paying $3.69, significantly higher over the past two weeks.

There have been no states with gas prices under $3.00 for six straight weeks. Mississippi ($3.06) has taken back the title for lowest in the nation from Colorado ($3.15). Other than Georgia ($3.41) and Florida ($3.56), the Southeast cluster from Oklahoma east to South Carolina are all hovering in a range between $3.11 and $3.24, with most of them slightly lower than last week. In Texas, gas prices are averaging $3.26.

Arizona ($4.13) has been above $4.00 for two weeks straight, joining California, Washington ($4.64), Nevada ($4.60), and Oregon ($4.42) in the $4+ club. Utah ($3.91) and Idaho ($3.92) are dangerously close to the level at which demand begins to tail off.


Bitcoin

This week: $65,235.00
Last week: $63,829.50
2 weeks ago: $69,743.90
6 months ago: $30,004.10
One year ago: $27,824.50

Bitcoin's highly-anticipated "halvening" or "halving", wherein the award to miners for solving for a new block is cut in half (happens every four years, by design) came and went sometime Friday, with no immediate effect.


Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 82.90; last week: 84.38

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 3/22: $2,188.20
Gold price 3/29: $2,254.80
Gold price 4/5: $2,349.10
Gold price 4/12: $2,360.20
Gold price 4/19: $2,406.70

Silver price 3/22: $24.84
Silver price 3/29: $25.10
Silver price 4/5: $27.60
Silver price 4/12: $27.97
Silver price 4/19: $29.03

Gold and silver managed to move higher again over the course of the week, gold at a new all-time high, silver ending the week above $29.00, the highest closing price since August 6, 2020. As silver reaches higher, comparisons will be made to 2011, as the price was rising, and 2012 and 2013, as it was declining. On April 22, 2011 - 13 years ago - silver reached a high of $47.64 according to charts provided by silverprice.org.

Year-to-date, gold is up 16.42%, silver, 21.63%. As what appears to be a fresh 15-year commodities super-cycle, prices should continue higher without much restraint. Precious metals are getting ample assistance from the leaders of Western economies, hell-bent on waging war, which, while devastating for human life, is regrettably positive for arms manufacturers but also good for gold and silver. It's a sorry trade-off, taking the good with the bad.

The weekly price survey on eBay was eye-opening, with prices for both gold and silver continuing to demand high premiums. One-ounce gold coins were in natably short supply. The survey had to reach more than 300 search results deep to find enough for a reasonable sample.

With gold especially, and silver reaching higher and higher prices, the COMEX is under severe strain to keep prices contained. Suppression efforts either no longer are effective or no longer exist as shorts have been slaughtered over the past six months. The new pricing mechanism is likely to be found in China, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange issuance of a twice-daily gold fix, a counter-balance to the antiquated (and highly manipulated) London Gold Fix.

Kitco offers a customizable table for the Shanghai Gold Fix which can be converted into various currencies and weights (gram, ounce, tola, kilo). The latest fix (pm) was $2,421.72 on April 19. It may be useful for gold and silver enthusiasts to undertake an understanding of these different weights and currencies. Some basic Mandarin may also come in handy over time.

Recent and continuing gains in the prices of precious metals should not be taken lightly. They are indicative of nothing less than complete and utter fiat currency debasement, writ large. As currencies of the U.S., UK commonwealth nations, and Europe descend into the historical abyss, gold and silver are likely to exceed most expectations. The people who have been talking about COMEX price suppression and $5,000 or $10,000 gold and triple-digit silver - Peter Schiff, James Rickards, Mike Maloney, Rafi Farber, Andy Schectman, Alasdair Macleod, Andrew Maguire, and others - may soon have their reputations reinforced. $8,000 gold by 2028 is quickly becoming a reasonable expectation.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping included):

Item/Price Low High Average Median
1 oz silver coin: 31.58 56.02 40.93 39.47
1 oz silver bar: 31.99 50.00 39.78 38.98
1 oz gold coin: 2,452.19 2,610.35 2,518.82 2,501.99
1 oz gold bar: 2,450.00 2,600.00 2,490.38 2,485.30

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose to a higher level on Sunday, to $39.79, a gain of $1.02 from the April 14 price of $38.77 per troy ounce. This represents the highest price since May 28, 2023 ($39.91).


WEEKEND WRAP

This week was a real doozy. Next week, more fireworks and continuous Clown World economics displays, now, with more statistics! First quarter GDP first estimate will be released on Thursday, prior to the opening bell. Friday, U.S. personal income and outlays report and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a favorite of the Fed, gets out.

Gold and silver will be bid.

At the Close, Friday, April 19, 2024:
Dow: 37,986.40, +211.02 (+0.56%)
NASDAQ: 15,282.01, -319.49 (-2.05%)
S&P 500: 4,967.23, -43.89 (-0.88%)
NYSE Composite: 17,458.77, +70.68 (+0.41%)

For the Week:
Dow: +3.16 (+0.01%)
NASDAQ: -893.08 (-5.52%)
S&P 500: -156.18 (-3.05%)
NYSE Composite: -180.27 (-1.02%)
Dow Transports: -414.39 (-2.67%)



Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2024, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

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idleguy.com July 2024
IdleGuy.com July 2024, Vol. 1 #6