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Weekly Survey of Gold and Silver Prices
Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark
Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.
PRIOR COVERAGE:
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Friday, May 2, 2025, 9:16 am ET Recently, volatility and uncertainty over the condition of tariffs on most nations exporting to the U.S., but especially China, the EU, Canada, and Mexico, have played havoc on stocks, sending them hurtling lower after President Trump's "Liberation Day" announcement on April 2, then rebounding after the president announced a 90-day pause and since bouncing hither and fro. Most of that seems to be fading, the major indices having, as of this week, regained all the earlier losses and looking for impetus to trade higher, possibly from earnings reports, improved conditions with China, or other economic news. Being the first Friday of the month, the BLS dutifully released its monthly Non-farm Payroll report, which showed the U.S. had gained 177,000 jobs in the month of April, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. So much for the recession argument and hopes for a cut to the federal funds target rate next week at the Fed's FOMC meeting (May 6-7). Despite Wednesday's minor trifling over the initial first quarter 2025 GDP estimate of -0.3%, markets have returned to a positive tilt, as Trump's policies begin taking hold on the general economy. Between government layoffs, firings, and other employment separations, including more than 70,000 bureaucrats taking the administration up on early retirement, deportations of criminal elements from foreign countries, and the beginnings of some trade deals emerging, there seems to be improved optimism overwhelming the waves of fear and uncertainty that gripped markets in April. Among the casualties during the last two weeks of improved sentiment are gold and oil. The price of gold had reached a record just beyond $3,500 on April 21. Yesterday, it had dropped as low as $3,212, and is gaining Friday morning, back to around $3,265, but with the lifting of the cloud of uncertainty, there is at least some relief in COMEX markets and at retail shops from the torrid run gold has had since November 2022, roughly doubling in value in about 30 months' time. Silver had also performed well, nearly doubling over a similar time period from around $18 to as high as $35 recently. Being an industrial metal, silver is holding its own, trading around $32.75 on the COMEX. WTI crude oil hit a low of $56.53 on Thursday, May 1, the lowest price since February, 2021, which, coincidentally is just after Joe "Brandon Bribem" Biden was inaugurated. Between Trump's "drill, baby, drill," messaging and OPEC recently raising production limits, oil's price is in a bear market and probably will head even lower, another benefit for the U.S. economy. Apple and Amazon reported Thursday after the bell, both with some disappointment, though the market will likely shrug off any deleterious effects. Stock futures had been positive but drifting lower prior to the jobs announcement, and really took off when the numbers were released. At 9:00 am ET, Dow futures: +430; NASDAQ futures: +218; S&P futures, +63. Stocks are looking to close out another positive week. Through Thursday's close, the Dow was up 639 points, NASDAQ, plus 327, and the S&P 78 points to the good. Things are looking up, especially with the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. The March Issue of IdleGuy.com has a number of horse-related features including picks for the nine stakes races at Churchill Downs, including the Kentucky Derby.
At the Close, Thursday, May 1, 2024:
Thursday, May 1, 2025, 9:00 am ET Wednesday's 1Q GDP first estimate should have changed many market participants' minds concerning their overall outlook and investing strategy, but not in the way one might think. The -0.3% print should have been viewed in a positive manner as opposed to the knee-jerk negative, "recession ahead" attitude. The reason the -0.3% initial estimate should be a positive for the market is because the major component of the downside was the subtraction of imports, as companies beefed up inventory ahead of President Trump's expected tariffs. The surge of imports amounted to -5% in the calculation of GDP. All else being equal, the first quarter of 2025 was not bad at all if one excludes or excuses the rush of imports as possibly a one-time event. For those believing the opposite, that the contraction in the first quarter is a sign that recession is close at hand and that the U.S. economy is overdue for one, that may be a faulty conclusion. Truth be told, the U.S. did have a recession recently, specifically in the first and second quarters of 2022, when GDP registered -1.0 and +0.3%. The Biden folks, keen on painting a picture of a healthy U.S. economy as midterms approached, goosed government spending in the 2nd quarter especially and re-defined what constituted a recession, which, prior to their "refinement" of the term, was two quarters of contraction. Given that the first quarter did contract and the second quarter would have contracted if not for fast action on the part of the corrupt to the core Biden administration, it can safely be assumed that the U.S. economy had a recession just three years ago, and thus is not overdue or close to another one. Beyond the rhetoric out of the mainstream media that it appears not many on Wall Street are buying into, Wednesday's numbers - including the paltry 62,000 jobs created in April according to the ADP survey - fostered some positive emotions. Stocks erased early losses and ended up in positive territory, except for the NASDAQ, which just missed. The Dow shrugged off a nearly 800-point loss to finish ahead by 141. The S&P, down 225 points just before 10:00 am ET, ended up 8 points. The NASDAQ was down 465 points but finished with a minor loss of 14.98 points. The small number of jobs created, per ADP, was quite frankly due to Trump's tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding trade and commerce. Many businesses put hiring on hold during the quarter, which would help explain the anemic numbers for April. When one considers the number of job openings that will become available once the deportations of people other than criminals commences, the U.S. employment picture looks fairly rosy. With the GDP now in the rear view mirror, the focus will be back on earnings and Friday's Non-farm payroll data. The NFP isn't likely to cause much turmoil whether it's good or bad because of the tariff uncertainty. Wall Street pros can deal with that just fine. Earnings continue to roll in and late Wednesday and early Thursday some substantial companies reported. Briefly:
Other than McDonald's selling less of what they try to pass off as food, the earnings are looking quite strong, especially in the two Magnificent 7 stocks, Microsoft and Meta. Will this trigger another round of tech buys? Sure looks like it. Will the gains continue, and put the losses from the first quarter and April behind? Probably. Wall Street, as is well-known, likes its toast buttered on both sides. They can put positive spin on the worst economic news, lipstick up the fattest pigs, so, with what appears to be mostly good news, it should be clear sailing to chug ahead toward the November and January highs. It's hardly nothing to ask for from the titans of tech and the money moguls. They've made plenty on the way down and will be happy to make more - and share the wealth - on the way back up. The May issue of idleguy.com has a money page feature with tips and strategies for investing in turbulent times such as these that is worth a look. Onward and upward. Trump's first 100 days have been impressive and he's just getting started.
At the Close, Wednesday, April 30, 2025:
Wednesday, April 30, 2025, 9:23 am ET ...and now, the moment we've all been waiting for, the initial estimate of first quarter 2025 GDP. At 8:30 am ET, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released their best guess (after all they're experts), suggesting that GDP in the US contracted at an annualized rate of -0.3%, the contraction below the top ten lowest Wall Street estimates but far better than the latest Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of -2.7%. Wall Street analysts' range of -0.4 to +1.4 came in at the low end of those estimates, a condition that falls very much in line with the ongoing mainstream media belittling and denigration of President Trump's first 100 days in office. Stock futures went from bad to worse prior to the readout, suggesting that the negative number was somewhat expected or that it had been leaked to select market participants prior to the general public release. For instance, NASDAQ futures were down 219 points just one minute prior to the announcement, and fell further when the actual number was exposed. In the half hour before the release, Dow futures had fallen from +35 at 8:00 am ET to -94 at 8:29 am ET. Minutes later, at 8:45, Dow futures were down 345, NASDAQ futures had shed 375, and S&P futures were losing 75 points. The negative GDP figure puts somwhat of a lie to the recent six-day rally on the S&P and Dow as well as the general "we've bottomed" narrative that had been in vogue the past few weeks. The GDP number, which is likely fudged to some degree in an attempt to soften the blow that the U.S. economy is a less than perfect, turns sentiment deeper into the negative, though it is worth noting that a surge in imports accounted for most of the drop-off. For what it's worth, the U.S. economy may be far stronger than the headline number suggests. Time will tell, with revisions in the second and third estimates late May and June, followed by second and third quarter results, the result could easily become one of strength once the tariff trauma is over, millions of illegals are deported and government downsized sufficiently. Prior to the GDP announcement, ADP released its April Employment Report, showing U.S. public sector job growth of 62,000, the lowest since July 2024, and well below trend dating back to the secondary low of December 2022. All three months - February, March, April - since Trump was inaugurated have been well below the big numbers reported during the Biden administration. The media is certain to portray this, along with Friday's Non-farm Payroll data and today's GDP slump as the President doing a "very, very, very bad job on the economy, hurting millions of Americans." The alternative reality upon which the MSM thrives runs counter to the general understanding that between tariffs, downsizing government (DOGE is saving taxpayers roughly $1.6 billion per week), and deporting illegals, the obvious effect was going to be a healthy degree of disinflationary pain, weaning the U.S. economy off the easy money from the Fed and government handouts to citizens and non-citizens alike, the effective "sugar high" in economic data. Elsewhere, Starbucks (SBUX) showed a big EPS miss for the first quarter, posting 0.41 on expectations of 0.48 per share. Same store sales in the U.S. and China were both down for the quarter as the company continues to try to resurrect the brand that brought overprice coffee drinks to the public over the past 25 years. Shares are down more than 10% in pre-market trading.
Other companies reporting after the close Tuesday and early Wednesday include:
Having fun yet?
At the Close, Tuesday, April 29, 2025:
Tuesday, April 29, 2025, 9:28 am ET Trading got off to a slow start Monday as the month of April - a downbeat one overall - approaches an end. The three major indices - Dow, NASDAQ, S&P - got a bit of a boost at the open, slumped all morning, then miraculously moved higher into the close, extending the winning streak for the Dow and S&P to five straight sessions. The NASDAQ, down more than 200 points midday, rallied to briefly turn positive nearing the session's close, but ended just short. Gains on the Dow and S&P were marginal, indicating the rally through the heart of earnings season may be running out of gas. Speaking of earnings, a good cross-section of American firms reported after the close Monday and prior to Tuesday's cash session. Here's a brief rundown of some of the first quarter results:
Mostly, earnings were drab, except Royal Caribbean, which had a solid quarter and surprised with strong forward guidance. Stocks can probably maintain prices at these levels (still down for the year), unless first quarter GDP comes in at a negative number. That's for Wednesday, along with the latest PCE Index and more earnings (Starbucks after close today; Caterpillar before open tomorrow). The market seems to have grown weary of the tariff trades and is seeking some kind of resolution, which, naturally, will be months or years in the making. There's plenty of pessimism to go around, but enough optimism to keep stocks treading water until the next major event, be it positive or negative. While it would be a mistake to underestimate the degree by which President Trump will shake things up, it is equally dangerous to underestimate his potential for winning on trade, taxes, spending cuts, and a trimmed down 2026 budget. That said, futures are slipping into the open, with the Dow +27, NASDAQ -117; S&P -22.
At the Close, Monday, April 28, 2025:
Sunday, April 27, 2025, 11:06 am ET Stocks just had one of the best weeks in, well, the past three. The week's gains were swell enough, especially the magic 6.73% rise on the NASDAQ, but they were about even with the winning the week of April 7-11, with a loser sandwiched in between. The kind of see-saw volatility seen over the past few months is textbook bear market stuff. Despite the howls of joy, all of the major indices are still under their 50-and-200-day moving averages and each laid down a death cross earlier this month, with the 50 crossing below the 200, except for the Dow Transports, which executed the death cross in March and remains deep into bear territory. From its high close of 17,754.38 on November 25 through Friday's close (13,497.05), the DJT is down a cool 24%. Whenever there's a general slowdown in the economy, it's the trannys that feel it first. If products aren't moving, the companies that get them from producer to wholesaler to retailer aren't very busy and their profits suffer. While store shelves are still full of things customers aren't buying, excess inventory becomes problematic, backlogs begin piling up, cancellations occur. These are the kinds of things happening behind the scenes while most of the unsuspecting public are busy watching their 401k plans dive in value and stocks jump up and down on Presidential utterances, rumors of trade breakthroughs or tariff trauma. Nobody likes to sell when stocks are down - and they are - but few consider that their gains from past years of excess and lofty valuation might just as well have been mirages or fairy dust. Refusal to accept reality can become costly. It's why panics happen. People are too engrossed with greed to be fearful at the right time and sell some shares. When stocks continue to slide and more people decide it's time to get out, a stampede for the exits is usually the result. Such an event could be weeks away, or months, or may not happen at all, but the lesson is that it may not be a bad idea to take some profits when the futures is clouded and uncertain. That hasn't happened to any great degree except in a few wary institutional trading rooms.
It's still a bear market. From their respective peaks, the Dow is down 10.89%; NASDAQ, -13.83%; S&P, -10.07. While more than a few talking heads on CNBC, FoxBusiness and elsewhere will cite these numbers as indicative of a "correction," their misunderstanding of sentiment and directionality should not be an excuse for talking their book, which is, naturally, to help Wall Street bankers line their pockets with client dollars. Most of them also have limited understanding of economics or world politics and their interplay in financial matters. Nobody rings a bell at the top and nobody is going to tell you to sell. That's just the way the system is set up to work. It functions off of the gullibility of people with money they don't know how to properly spend or allocate and the slick presentations and overpricing of stocks for sale. In good times, it's a bonanza. In bad times, fears often turn to tears. With tariff trauma all the rage, this week is the heart of earnings season, which has been somewhat under-whelming so far. Most companies are doing just well enough to either make their numbers or fall just short, but the bigger issue is the number of companies cutting their forward guidance. They're all doing it. From Chipolte to Pepsico to Proctor & Gamble to all of the airlines, companies just can't see the future clearly. Trump has managed to throw shade on their crystal balls and none of them like it. More than a few have simply withdrawn guidance altogether, essentially throwing in the towel on the rest of the year until there's clarity on tariffs and other government policies. It makes for some very risky bets, despite this week's run. More companies will be reporting this week. Among them: Monday: (before open) MGM Resorts (MGM), Opera (OPRA) Domino's Pizza (DPZ); (after close) Nucor (NUE), Rambus (RMBS), Transocean (RIG), Waste Management (WM), Teradyne (TER) Tuesday: (before open) (Altria (MO), Pfizer (PFE), Spotify (SPOT), Coca-Cola (KO), UPS (UPS), PayPal (PYPL), SoFi (SOFI), Royal Caribbean (RCL), JetBlue (JBLU); (after close) Snap (SNAP), Starbucks (SBUX), PPG (PPG), First Solar (FSLR), Visa (V) Wednesday: (before open) International Paper (IP), Generac (GNRC), Hess (HES), Etsy (ETSY), Western Digital (WDC), Humana (HUM), Caterpillar (CAT); (after close) Prudential (PRU), Robinhood (HOOD), Qualcom (QCOM), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META) Thursday: (before open) Roblox (RBLX), Mastercard (MA), McDonald's (MCD), Lilly (LLY), CVS Health (CVS), Moderna (MRNA); (after close) Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Reddit (RDDT), AirB&B (ABNB), Roku (ROKU), AIG (AIG) Friday: (before open) Wendy's (WEN), Shell (SHEL), Chevron (CVX), ExxonMobil (XOM), Fubo (FUBO), Cigna (CI). Traders will be bracing for what figures to be a pivotal session Wednesday, April 30, marking the end of the month with a couple of key economic numbers released. The biggest data drop of the week will be the initial estimate of first quarter 2025 GDP, announced Wednesday prior to the opening bell. Current expert guesses fall in a range of -0.5 to +1.5%, though the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow is predicting -2.5%, which would be a real market mover. In all actuality, GDP growth of less than 1.2% should be considered substandard, but anything with a minus sign in front of it should serve to confirm that the U.S. economy is in a recession and may have been in one since December or earlier. Naturally, the official designation of a recession won't be available until it's over, as the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is the government group which emotes from its ivory towers well after the fact. As politicized and dependent on what are, at best, educated guesses, skepticism of government pronouncements, estimates, or projections is at an all-time high. Much of the propaganda the government spews should be regarded as narrative-building and little more. Putting faith in figures that are routinely revised months later is a losing game. Along with the GDP number, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the PCE Index, will also be revealed Wednesday. It's always good to end the month that starts with April Fool's Day with even more nonsense. Shortly thereafter, Friday's April Non-farm payroll release will add more fuel to whatever fire is already ablaze.
Little change from last week on longer-dated maturities, though cheerleaders for stocks will characterize the five basis points lower on the 10-year note yield as some kind of victory or at least an indication of stabilizing in the credit space. If anything, the small moves lower in rates overall are temporary noise and not useful in any kind of analysis. The market for treasuries is under assault on various fronts. The Federal Reserve cannot control longer term rates as evidenced last fall when they cut 100 basis points on the federal funds target rate and long bond yields rose. The market drives rates on anything longer than six months. With dollar flight well anchored, rates are likely to rise over time. Since the Trump tariffs were announced on April 2, rates have been anything but stable. A Fed cut at the next FOMC meeting (May 6-7) is likely to be influenced greatly by three factors: the rate of inflation, the May 2 Non-farm payroll report, and, most importantly, the April 30 reading on first quarter GDP, which looks to be a stinker. Any cut to rates at the next meeting will not be because President Trump implores the Fed to do so, but rather a means by which the Fed can goose the stock market, which is about all they're interested in lately. One could argue that the federal funds rate is too high, given current conditions of instability and uncertainty, but a 25 basis point cut will have to come with a suggestion that it is the first in a series to move markets in any meaningful way. Having pretty much claimed victory over inflation, the Fed is free to do as it pleases. They're either going to cut or hold, neither of which will have a great deal of influence in the larger scheme of things. Spreads:
2s-10s
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
WTI crude was actually down on the week, closing out at $63.17, quite a long haul from last week's $64.45. As long as there is tariff uncertainty, oil isn't going anywhere fast. After the IMF lowered the forecast for global GDP last week, any rise in the price of fuel would run counter to the global trend, which is lower, just like stocks, food prices, and confidence in governments and central banks. It's worth noting that President Trump hasn't made any effort to refill the strategic oil reserve, which Biden depleted in a cynical effort to tamp prices - that his policies made rise - down. Trump apparently believes this is not the most opportune time to refill the nation's tanks; he's patiently waiting for prices to come down even further. Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.12, same as last week. The expectation is for the national average to fall below $3.00 within the next month or so and possibly even further as a combination of reduced demand and oversupply takes root. Gas prices were in flux across the most of the country, the top price retained by California at $4.75 down another four cents on the week. Mississippi relinquished the low spot to Oklahoma, cheapest in the nation at $2.63, edging out Mississippi by two cents. Texas ($2.70) and Louisiana ($2.71) were next. South Carolina ($2.72), Alabama ($2.75) and Tennessee ($2.77). Georgia and Florida continue to be outliers, at $2.88. and $3.02, respectively. Outside of Pennsylvania ($3.33), New England and East coast states all range between $2.85 (New Hampshire) and $3.08 (Vermont, Maryland). New York was stable, at $3.04. Almost all of the Northeast is headed below $3.00 soon enough. Most states - Rhode Island, New Jersey, Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts - are already there. Midwest states are led by Illinois ($3.41), the price taking a six cent jump from last week. Kansas ($2.83) is the lowest, followed by Missouri ($2.88) and Ohio ($2.95). All other states are right around $3.00, a few cents higher or lower, the highest being Indiana ($3.06). The West continues to have the highest prices. Along with California, Washington is the only state above $4.00, stable at at $4.25. Oregon ($3.87) and Nevada ($3.80) continue seeing price declines. Arizona checks in at $3.33, though neighboring New Mexico is a bargain at $2.73. Idaho is at $3.27, while neighboring Utah is $3.24, both lower this week. Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in at a few more states this week, with at last 27 hitting the mark. Prospects for lower gas prices are very good heading into what used to be known as "driving season," otherwise referenced as Summer.
This week: $93,927.10 Bitcoin and the entire crypto space in general is the biggest scam ever perpetrated. It's obviousness was on full display this week as gold got taken down while bitcoin rallied at the same time. Now, anybody with any sense should be well aware that things made up from pure fantasy don't go up when actual money - gold - goes down. Reality simply does not function in that manner. Of the various purposes for bitcoin, which include hiding assets from prying government eyes, slush funds for Wall Street, all manner of criminal purposes, and a means of stealing peoples' money through fraud, graft collusion, exchanges, and transfers, it is well-known as a mechanism to suppress the price of gold and silver. Bitcoin has not been over $100,00 since February 4. It's possible that the entire crypto space could implode quicker than the general economy. In fact, much of the space is already suffering and it could be a trigger to a wider credit event. One example is Ethereum, down 46% year-to-date. The fraud in crypto as a general economic concept may be beginning to be exposed. This could get even uglier. If Bitcoin falls, it takes the whole universe of thousands of alt-coins and tokens down with it.
Gold:Silver Ratio: 99.89; last week: 102.68 Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 3/30: $3,090.00
Silver price 3/30: $34.82 Gold peaked over $3,500 early Tuesday morning - likely Chinese influence from traders on the Shanghai Exchange - and was beaten down the remainder of the week. It's likely to go back to that level and higher on short notice. The good news was the gains in silver, up 80 cents on the week, though it nearly hit $34.00 on a couple of occasions. Actual gold and silver buyers, judging by Money Daily's weekly Sunday survey of prices on eBay, aren't very much influenced by the COMEX or London's daily spot fixes. They're buying at premium prices, regardless of the fake paper-promise prices of the futures markets, measuring their wealth in ounces rather than dollars, yen, yuan, or euros, all equally fake. There's no better trade these days than cashing out of fiat currency for real money, gold and silver. Some people get it, most don't, but the pressure is building, the gains have been outstanding since late 2022 and they show no signs of letting up. The value of gold and silver against any fiat currency is a matter of certainty versus time value. All national currencies (central bank counterfeit) are failing and have been failing for decades. They are a function of systems mathematically certain to self-destruct by design. Getting the timing exactly right isn't a problem. Understanding the inevitability of the death of unsound money is all the knowledge that is necessary. Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) dropped slightly during the week, to $41.96, down 18 cents from the April 20 price of $42.14 per troy ounce. WEEKEND WRAP It hasn't gone unnoticed that the narratives of the central banks, politicians, and government operatives are unraveling at a quickened pace. President Trump has thrown Molotov cocktails through the front doors of places like the World Bank, IMF, World Trade Organization, NATO, the UN and elsewhere. He is a revolutionary leader with deep-seated convictions and exemplary business savvy. If there is a fourth turning, he wields the staff and the corkscrew. While it may appear to many people that he's guiding a rudderless ship, these same people are hardly cognizant of Trump's mastery of presentation, deflection, and his understanding of the art of war, which he is waging on multiple fronts. There's surely no guarantee he will win all his wars, but the likelihood of his success in the fields of economics and societal change are strong and growing stronger by the day. The Kentucky Derby is Saturday, May 3, which, as anybody with skin in th game understands, is necessary for at least some stress relief. Following what the week ahead is likely to reveal, a few mint juleps and some bets on fast 3-year-old ponies should serve as a welcome break.
At the Close, Friday, April 25, 2025:
For the Week:
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