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Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.

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Buy-and-Hold and Buy-the-Dip Have Been Enormously Profitable; May Become Even Better as Trump Upends Global Commerce

Friday, May 16, 2025, 9:15 am ET

Thanks to Monday's massive melt-up, the major indices are on track for a large winner for the week.

As of Thursday's close, the Dow Industrials were ahead by 1,073 points (2.60%). NASDAQ has put on a massive 6.60% gain, up 1,183 points. The S&P 500 is up a more modest 4.54%, or 257. points. The NYSE Composite is up 457 points, lagging the field with a 2.41% gain.

While these indices have, over the past six weeks (since April 2, "Liberation Day"), moved from beneath their 50 and 200-day moving averages to above them, excepting the Dow, which is still in between, they remain off their all-time highs. That shouldn't be a problem for most investors, who are likely more relieved that their 15-25% portfolio losses are now more along the lines of 2-5% lower and at just about break even year-to-date.

Even better, long term investors, especially since the GFC crash that bottomed in March 2009 (coincidentally, right around the time bitcoin became a "thing"), have benefitted from buy-and-hold or buy-the-dip strategies, with passive investors multiples higher off lows on the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P of roughly 7,200, 1,400, and 750 on the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P, respectively.

Passive investors who bought the bottom in 2009 up on average eight-fold. A hypothetical $10,000 invested in March 2009 would be worth somewhere in the range of $80,000 today. A person contemplating retirement at 50 years of age in 2009 with 100,000 invested, might have already taken the plunge at 62 (2021), riding the wave through the pandemic scare with a nest egg of around $800,000 today.

Whether or not that's enough to retire on is largely a choice of lifestyle. A 5% annual drawdown of $40,000 a year, or $3,333 per month, certainly would provide more than enough to survive and thrive in the golden years, and that's before adding in Social Security remittances. By comparison, gold is up just more than 80% since the GFC.

It's obvious that the Wall Street casino has made millionaires galore out of the extremely patient cohort of passive investors. Despite the gloom-and doom clanging from goldbugs and non-believers, simply going with the flow has been a winning strategy. Buyers of dips have fared even better.

An argument can be made that lower purchasing power of the US dollar over the years has eroded the value of stock and bond portfolios, but, asset inflation being the forerunner of consumer price inflation, an eight-fold increase in asset value easily more than offsets the rampaging inflation of 2021-2023. Those harmed the most by declining purchasing power are in the lower classes, those who don't own stocks and have not participated in some of the best consecutive years of gains in stocks, ever.

President Trump's promise of an American "golden age" will have to pull the middle and lower classes higher with better, higher-paying jobs in a revitalized U.S. economy. Re-shoring of industries will have to play a large role if Trump's promise is to be realized.

Long story short, America's economy, while somewhat unbalanced, favoring asset allocators over laborers, remains the envy of the world and may become even more dominant in years to come.

An exemplar of the change in attitude concerning America's fortunes can be seen in the recent collapse of the gold price, which is being hammered lower again today, dropping another $60-80, down as low as $3,156 this morning. Despite being up 20% year-to-date, gold has lost nearly half of that gain in just the past week. There was every indication - especially with the gold:silver ratio over 100 - that gold had gotten ahead of itself, the rumors of a new gold-backed BRICS+ currency not withstanding. Trump has countered any BRICS+ aspirations with an unexpected surge of global deal-making and probably never before seen.

Gold may turn in the second half of the year from the best asset to the worst. Silver should benefit from gold's short-term demise with the GSR returning to somewhat more normal levels because of its use as an industrial metal over that of a monetary one. Industrialization on a scale that the Trump approach is promoting will require huge amounts of silver, copper and other raw materials, keeping their prices stable, if not raising them substantially.

In less than four months since his inauguration, President Trump has overturned the tables of global trade and he's only just begun. The next three to four years and beyond may be the most prosperous ever seen in the history of America, which turns 300 year old in just over a year from now.

With markets set to open in minutes, futures are higher. Dow futures: +120; NASDAQ: +40; S&P: +14. Buy and hold is here to stay.

At the Close, Thursday, May 15, 2025:
Dow: 42,322.75, +271.69 (+0.65%)
NASDAQ: 19,112.32, -34.49 (-0.18%)
S&P 500: 5,916.93, +24.35 (+0.41%)
NYSE Composite: 19,784.69, +156.23 (+0.80%)



Deflationary Trends Dominate Data Drop; PPI Checks in a -0.5% MOM, Lowest in 5 Years; Walmart Warns on Revenue Miss

Thursday, May 15, 2025, 9:17 am ET

Wednesday produced another split decision on equity markets with the Dow and NYSE Composite lower and the NASDAQ and S&P higher, albeit only slightly.

Traders were possibly waiting on Thursday's pre-market data dump and earnings from Walmart (WMT).

Of the multiple releases at 8:30 am ET, the most stunning was April PPI, which registered a -0.5% month-on-month, the lowest such reading since April 2020, at the onset of the spamdemic.

As Money Daily has been inferring for months, the chorus of cheerleaders for Fed rate cuts are likely going to be singing the wrong tune. Rather than inflation and recession harming the economy, it's dis-inflation or deflation that will emerge as the main threat later this year, if not already in play.

A negative on the PPI and stalled out CPI for April signal that between DOGE efforts in Washington, deportations, tariff trauma, and OPEC+ production cuts, prices for everything from Pop-tarts to retail gasoline are falling, pretty much a natural effect after years of official Washington's mismanagement.

Along with the PPI showing up harshly deflationary, April Retail Sales were flat, rising just 0.1% over the month. If consumers aren't expanding their spending - they're broke, using credit cards to buy food - there's no chance for any inflation, either at the producer level, as pricing power evaporates, or at the consumer point.

Initial jobless claims came in the same as last week, with 229,000 applying for benefits.

The NY Fed Manufacturing Index fell again, to -9.2 from -8.1 last reading. The Philly Fed was wildly improved, at -4, from -26.4 in the prior period.

The market awaits April readings on Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization.

Walmart beat its earnings forecast but missed on revenue in the first quarter for the first time in five years. The company blamed tariffs (which haven't been fully implemented yet) as the cause for the revenue miss.

WTI crude oil is down sharply after the EIA announced a "surprise" inventory build. The price of a barrel of light, sweet crude is hovering around $61 after closing out yesterday in New York at $63.15.

With all the confusion associated with Trump making multiple deals in the Middle East and data showing something along the lines of stag-deflation, stock futures are sharply lower. Dow futures, -142, NASDAQ futures, -102, S&P futures, -21.

At the Close, Wednesday, May 14, 2025:
Dow: 42,051.06, -89.37 (-0.21%)
NASDAQ: 19,146.81, +136.72 (+0.72%)
S&P 500: 5,892.58, +6.03 (+0.10%)
NYSE Composite: 19,628.46, -94.91 (-0.48%)



Stocks Pause After Impressive Three Weeks; Oil's Rise Contrary to Recent Trends; Trump, Tech Titans Making Strides in Middle East

Wednesday, May 14, 2025, 10:06 am ET

As trading began on Wednesday, the most noticeable change was in gold, sent lower by more than $60 in the hour before the bell ($3,180).

Stocks, after a split decision on Tuesday, opened trading with a marginally positive bias. There was not much for traders to digest heading into the middle of the week. Thursday will be more impactful with earnings releases for Cisco (CSCO) after the close Wednesday and John Deere (DE), Walmart (WMT), Gambling.com (GAMB), Alibaba (BABA), and Birkenstock (BIRK) reporting Thursday morning.

Also on Thursday, April PPI, reports on regional economic activity from the New York and Philadelphia Feds, April capacity utilization, industrial production, retail sales, and the weekly unemployment report of initial and continuing claims.

With President Trump in the Middle East and the highly-anticipated possible/not probable meeting between Russian President Putin and Ukraine proxy Zelensky or their respective representatives in Turkey, even the geo-political scene is on hold for the day.

Stocks are showing a slight negative trend in Europe.

Stocks have put together a fairly impressive rally over the past three weeks, erasing year-to-date losses on all the major indices. The NASDAQ has gained massively, up 20% since April 21. With Trump and his entourage of tech moguls hobnobbing in Saudi Arabia, Mag7 and chip stocks have been moving higher.

Wednesday offers a solid opportunity for traders to stake out new positions at somewhat lower prices. Sector rotation has developed out of defensives into more speculative stocks. Coinbase (COIN), after the Tuesday announcement that the company was being added to the S&P 500 on May 19, has responded with a nearly 30-point rise. The cryptocurrency exchange will replace Discover Financial (DFS), which is being acquired by Capital One (COF), the deal expected to close within the next two to four months.

Bitcoin, of which Coinbase holds a significant amount in its treasury, has not responded in any noticeable manner, stuck in a range between $102,000 and $105,000.

WTI crude oil, which has gained more than $5 - from $58 to above $63 - in just the past week, may be in a technical phase. The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) weekly report (due at 10:30 am ET, could shed more light on the wheres and whys of oil's recent advance. In the main, consideration that the U.S. - and possibly Europe - is not headed for a recession could be fueling the recent positive bias.

Stocks are not exactly in "limbo" today, but there does not seem to be much in the way of actionable news or data.

At the Close, Tuesday, May 13, 2025:
Dow: 42,140.43, -269.67 (-0.64%)
NASDAQ: 19,010.08, +301.74 (+1.61%)
S&P 500: 5,886.55, +42.36 (+0.72%)
NYSE Composite: 19,723.38, +11.83 (+0.06%)



Is the Bottom In or Was Monday's Rally a Bear Market Bump?; CPI Lowest in Four Years; Gold Lower, Crude Oil Soaring

Tuesday, May 13, 2025, 9:26 am ET

The jury is still out.

Whether Monday's smashing rally was a sure sign that the bottom for stocks is "in" or the temporary China-USA trade deal worked out over the weekend ignited a wicked bear market rally.

Signs seem to be leaning toward the positive as Donald Trump reshapes the economic landscape. Additionally, Tuesday's reading on April CPI saw consumer prices rise at their slowest pace since February, 2021, increasing 2.3% over the prior year and up just 0.2% for the month.

Monday's face-ripping rally had other effects, sending gold to its lowest level in two weeks, dropping close to $3,200 as the day wore on.

Futures are mixed heading toward Tuesday's opening bell. Just before 9:00 am ET, Dow futures are off 180 points, S&P futures are flat-lining and NASDAQ futures are up 40.

It's no longer wait-and-see for many eager investors, judging by the outsized gains on the NASDAQ.

At the Close, Monday, May 12, 2025:
Dow: 42,410.10, +1,160.72 (+2.81%)
NASDAQ: 18,708.34, +779.43 (+4.35%)
S&P 500: 5,844.19, +184.28 (+3.26%)
NYSE Composite: 19,711.55, +392.35 (+2.03%)



WEEKEND WRAP: Dullest Week of the Year Comes as Welcome Relief; Bitcoin Powers Past $100,000; Trade and Tariff Talk Toned Down

Sunday, May 11, 2025, 9:05 am ET

The week just past was about the calmest markets have been this year. Stocks barely budged on a weekly basis. Treasuries stagnated, the largest move was up 8 basis points on 5-year notes. The short end of the curve, from one month out to six months, was flat as a pancake, primarily because the Fed held steady on the federal funds target rate at the FOMC meeting mid-week.

While Jerome Powell may become infamous for his "I don't see the stag or the flation," comment, he's managed to produce (with ample assistance from the Trump administration) a stagnant U.S. economy with almost no inflation, which may be the best that consumers can expect and a welcome relief from wild gyrations of the past four-plus years.

A break in the action is more than likely "a good thing," as Martha Stewart might quip. Summer is upon us and admittedly, plenty of people are worn out from the politics, the bickering, the questioning and the roller coaster ride since 2020. Take a deep breath and relax.

Other than bitcoin vaulting over $100,000, nothing much happened. Unless one wants to make points over Trump's trade deal with the UK - all $148 billion of it of it - or the first American pope, embrace the calm.


Stocks

Though it didn't seem like it, all the major averages finished lower on a weekly basis. It was a close call, the worst of it on the S&P 500, which ended down 26.76 points (-0.47%).

Agree with it or not, bear market conditions persist. The Dow is down the least, -8.36% from its December 4 high (45,014.04). The S&P peaked at 6,144.15 on February 19 and is down 8.88% since. The NASDAQ is off 11.13% from its peak of 20,173.89 on December 16 of last year with a ton of overhead resistance just beyond 20,000. Call that a correction or whatever Wall Street spin is appropriate, but the bearish slant of the charts is plain to see.

Markets got a 90-day reprieve from Trump on a tariff pause while deals are being worked out, but more than a month has passed already and the first actual effects will not be known until late summer at the earliest.

Earnings reports are beginning to wind down, with Cisco, Applied Materials, Alibaba, and Walmart the most significant among those reporting in the coming week.

Monday: (before open) NRG (NRG), FOX (FOXA), Sportradar (SRAD), Chegg (CHGG); (after close) Nuscale (SMR), Hertz (HTZ), Blink (BLNK), Petrobras (PBR)

Tuesday: (before open) JD.com (JD), Honda (HMC), Under Armour (UAA), Landstar (LSTR); (after close) SurgePays (SURG), Kindercare (KLC), Karman Space & Defense (KRMN)

Wednesday: (before open) Tencent (TCEHY), Ars Pharma (SPRY); (after close) Boot Barn (BOOT), Cisco (CSCO), Jack in the Box (JACK)

Thursday: (before open) John Deere (DE), Walmart (WMT), Gambling.com (GAMB), Alibaba (BABA), Birkenstock (BIRK); (after close) Cava (CAVA), Galactic (SPCE), Applied Materials (AMAT)

Friday: (before open) Mastech Digital (MSHH), Codere (CDRO).

Since they did what everybody thought they would do - nothing - the Federal Reserve's May 5-6 FOMC meeting was really kind of a bust. The initial reaction was a gain of 20 points on the S&P and a rise early Thursday, but after peaking at 5,718, the 500 ended the week at 5,659. The Fed had nearly nothing to do with any moves in the market.

April CPI will be reported Tuesday before the bell. The mortgage purchase index and the weekly EIA report on oil and distillates are on tap for Wednesday.

Thursday is jam-packed with April PPI, reports on regional economic activity from the New York and Philadelphia Feds, capacity utilization, industrial production, April retail sales and the weekly unemployment report of initial and continuing claims.

Friday brings reports on housing starts, building permits, import prices and the University of Michigan's monthly survey of consumer sentiment.


Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date 1 Mo 1.5 mo 2 Mo 3 Mo 4 Mo 6 Mo 1 Yr
04/04/2025 4.36 4.35 4.36 4.28 4.25 4.14 3.86
04/11/2025 4.37 4.35 4.38 4.34 4.35 4.21 4.04
04/17/2025 4.36 4.35 4.38 4.34 4.35 4.22 3.99
04/25/2025 4.34 4.37 4.36 4.32 4.32 4.22 3.95
05/02/2025 4.38 4.36 4.34 4.33 4.41 4.26 4.00
05/09/2025 4.37 4.36 4.34 4.34 4.40 4.28 4.05

Date 2 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 7 Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 30 Yr
04/04/2025 3.68 3.66 3.72 3.84 4.01 4.44 4.41
04/11/2025 3.96 3.98 4.15 4.32 4.48 4.91 4.85
04/17/2025 3.81 3.82 3.95 4.13 4.34 4.82 4.80
04/25/2025 3.74 3.76 3.88 4.06 4.29 4.75 4.74
05/02/2025 3.83 3.82 3.92 4.11 4.33 4.81 4.79
05/09/2025 3.88 3.85 4.00 4.18 4.37 4.86 4.83

Spreads were higher this week, signaling continued stress in the treasury market. Demand for U.S. dollars continues to wane and Trump's tariff gambit isn't help the situation one bit. If anything, more foreign buyers are seeking out bi-lateral trade deals without the need of treasuries and some already employing gold reserves.

2s-10s are +49 basis points and have been at that level or higher since just after the April 2nd "Liberation Day" that sent all dollar-denominated assets on a collision course with reality. Full spectrum jumped from +5 to +38 from 4/4 to 4/11 and hit a new high this week at +46.

The treasury yield curve is about as flat as its ever been, with the low in the middle - 3.85% on 3-year notes - and the 20-year just 0.03 higher than the 30, at 4.86. The difficulty of making money as a lender with spreads about just one percent cannot be understated. There will be casualties. It's just a matter of time.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46


Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil closed out the week in New York trading at a price of $61.06, versus last Friday's $58.38, which was the lowest level since February 5, 2021 ($56.85). Oil's gain on the week appears to stem from an oversold condition. Given that there was no news on which to hang a rally, this week's bump to the upside should be considered little more than a dead cat bounce off extreme lows.

Speculators in the futures market probably sensed the time was right for a bear market rally and jumped into fray feet first. Though the gain was close to $3, there's nothing supporting WTI crude at any price above $60. Expect to see it back down into the mid-50s in short order.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.10, down four cents from last week. Yahoo Finance believes the national average will be below $3.00 this summer, as inventories stabilize, OPEC production hikes take hold, and refinery maintenance has been mostly completed. The inevitable re-alignment with the oil price may have finally begun.

Gas prices continued to fluctuate across the most of the country, the top price retained by California at $4.81, though that is up eight cents on the week and likely caused by the state's incessant taxation of anything and everything touched by consumers. Mississippi retained the low spot at $2.61, with Oklahoma, next-cheapest in the nation at $2.64, edging out Louisiana ($2.66) by just two cents. South Carolina checked in at 2.69. Tennessee, Arkansas (2.70), Alabama ($2.71) and Tennessee ($2.72) round out the lows in the Southeast. With North Carolina at $2.81, Georgia at $2.86 and Florida dropping 18 cents to $2.90, the entire region is a driver's dream, all below $3.00.

Outside of Pennsylvania ($3.28) and Maryland ($3.13), New England and East coast states all range between $2.86 (New Hampshire) and $3.08 (Vermont).

Midwest states are led by Illinois ($3.41), the price slightly higher than last week. Kansas ($2.83) is the lowest. Outside of Indiana ($3.07) and Michigan ($3.05), the entire region is sub-$3.00, from Ohio and Kentucky to the Dakotas.

Along with California, Washington is the only state above $4.00, stable at at $4.24. Oregon ($3.86) and Nevada ($3.85) continue seeing stable prices as well. Arizona appears headed for sub-$3.00, in at $3.26, though neighboring New Mexico is a relative bargain at $2.75. Idaho and neighboring Utah are at $3.24 and $3.25, respectively.

Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in more states this week, with at least 28 hitting the mark. Prospects for lower gas prices are beginning to bear fruit for American drivers.


Bitcoin

This week: $104,416.70
Last week: $95,497.28
2 weeks ago: $93,927.10
6 months ago: $88,470.49
One year ago: $61,151.16
Five years ago: $9,383.02

On Thursday, Bitcoin bounded over $100,00 for the first time since February 4, the timing of which was suspect as the quick run-up from $97,000 to $103,000 happened on Thursday, just as Democrats, joined by three Republicans in the Senate kept the GENIUS act - which would codify regulations regarding stablecoins and other crypto-related issues such as security and safeguards against insider trading and money laundering - from advancing for a full senate vote.

Democrats scoffed that the other side made last-minute changes that members were unable to scrutinize. They also pointed fingers at President Trump, who has vested interests in various crypto ventures. Nonetheless, bitcoin soared, as critics and pundits expect the issues to be ironed out and the bill presented again shortly, as early as the coming week and passage assured. Whether that happens to be wishful thinking or actual fact remains to be seen. The opposing sides appear to have some distance between them.

The usual talk about bitcoin breaking further upwards towards $200,000 and beyond was the dominant theme once the vapor-coin ripped through the psychological barrier at $100,000, proof that some people are prone to believe in fairy tales, unicorns and flying pigs.


Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 101.25; last week: 100.91

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 4/13: $3,254.90
Gold price 4/20: $3,341.30
Gold price 4/27: $3,330.20
Gold price 5/2: $3,247.40
Gold price 5/9: $3,329.10

Silver price 4/13: $32.19
Silver price 4/20: $32.54
Silver price 4/27: $33.34
Silver price 5/2: $32.18
Silver price 5/9: $32.88

Both gold and silver rebounded over the course of the week, showing tremendous resilience against the usual suppression tactics, though the idea that bitcoin would gain while gold and silver declined makes little sense in the larger scheme of protecting one's wealth against the predations of governments and central bankers.

Even though gold pulled back from $3,500 recently, arguments against holding, hoarding, or otherwise accumulating gold and/or silver are lacking. The price has only one direction, especially with governments working hard to devalue the dollar, yen, euro, pound, yuan, and franc.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price Low High Average Median
1 oz silver coin: 34.00 49.90 40.76 39.75
1 oz silver bar: 39.00 50.12 43.77 42.98
1 oz gold coin: 3,460.10 3,573.20 3,497.54 3,475.24
1 oz gold bar: 3,463.36 3,523.20 3,491.29 3,487.18

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose sharply through the week, to $41.82, a $1.34 advance from the May 4 price of $40.48 per troy ounce.

Premia remain high. Gold and silver continue to hold recent gains quite well despite lack of enthusiasm from the general public. Central banks have been in the driver's seat since the end of 2022. In particular, gold has reached high levels so quickly, retail buyers may be reluctant to dive in at these prices. Silver is at bargain basement levels, vis-a-vis the gold:silver ratio remaining over 100, but without the whale-like impact of central bank buyers, retail level purchasing doesn't move the needle.

Additionally, a color of small-time silver stackers are discouraged at the metal's lack of explosiveness and may be looking for even lower entry points. Whether silver declines back into the 20s or not, buying when the GSR is multiples of the historic ratio seems to be a total no-brainer. There's no other way to put it. The silver price has probably more to do with its industrial uses than as a monetary metal. By dousing the advance of the "green wave" and with the possibility of a global recession still on a back burner, there might be some virtue to holding off on silver presently, but, there isn't much room for error in taking such a position.

From the perspective of a long-term chart back to the bottom near the end of 2022, silver is in a channel that suggests further advances. A pullback to $29.65 might be considered a reasonable expectation, but such a move might also be the result of a protracted global recession, at which point all dollar-denominated assets will drop. At least with silver, if it's in hand, you own it, which is, after all, the main purpose from a monetary standpoint.

Judging by prices on eBay at at online retailers, there is no shortage of small denominations of both metals available, nor is there a shortage of willing buyers at record or near-record prices. As limited as the public may be in terms of market depth, most of the skepticism is lost on buyers once they begin to explore their options. Some degree of FOMO (fear of missing out) cannot be discounted either. Retail buyers in the physical space increasingly do not consider COMEX or spot values valid and are letting the market set prices, as it should be.


WEEKEND WRAP

Investing shouldn't be exciting. It should be disciplined and reasonable. What purports to be a free, open, fair market in stocks is, in reality, anything but. Stocks are ruled by algorithms, computers, big money, and headlines. The preferred place to put money at this juncture is in precious metals, that is, until the real estate market comes back to earth, which is beginning to happen in many metro markets. The global asset bubble is not fully resistant to pinpricks.

At the Close, Friday, May 9, 2025:
Dow: 41,249.38, -119.07 (-0.29%)
NASDAQ: 17,928.92, +0.78 (0.00%)
S&P 500: 5,659.91, -4.03 (-0.07%)
NYSE Composite: 19,319.20, +5.02 (+0.03%)

For the Week:
Dow: -68.05, (-0.16%)
NASDAQ: -48.81 (-0.27%)
S&P 500: -26.76 (-0.47%)
NYSE Composite: -67.48 (-0.35%)
Dow Transports: -37.22 (-0.26%)



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idleguy.com July 2025
IdleGuy.com July 2025, Vol. 2 #7