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Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.
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Bitcoin Surges Past $100,000 as Senate Rejects GENIUS Act, Killing Crypto Legislation Friday, May 9, 2025, 9:34 am ET On Thursday, Bitcoin exploded higher, breaking beyond the mythical $100,000 mark for the first time in three months. Bitcoin crossing the $100,000 mark once again is a major psychological milestone for investors in the broader crypto market. While the price itself doesn't change Bitcoin's fundamentals, it signals renewed optimism and confidence in digital assets. Several factors contributed to this surge:
Bitcoin surging past the $100,000 mark may trigger some deeper confidence in digital assets. However, whether it marks a definitive turning point for mainstream adoption is a bit more nuanced. It remains largely unused as a medium of exchange. Critics point to the tardiness of transactions and bitcoin's inability to operate on a scale similar to established payment processors, i.e., credit and debit cards, PayPal, Stripe, and a slew of imitators. Breaking such the $100,000 barrier does, to varying degrees, reinforce Bitcoin's image as a mature asset. This milestone signals to retail investors, institutional players, and even some skeptical observers that Bitcoin has the momentum to withstand volatility. It may attract those who have been on the sidelines, certainly sparking broader media coverage and potentially drawing in more investors who are looking for alternative investment avenues or different ways to park money outside of the traditional places like money markets, gold or silver. Mainstream adoption, however, isn't driven solely by a dramatic price move. It requires a constellation of developments, including regulatory clarity, robust infrastructure, and clearer pathways to adoption for everyday use. While this price milestone is significant, the sustained involvement of institutional investors, the rollout of user-friendly trading platforms, and advances in scalability and security remain critical. In essence, while the jump past $100,000 is a sends a signal that Bitcoin has momentum, it's not likely to lead to more tangible developments like integrated financial products, heightened regulatory acceptance, and broader consensus in its role as a hedge or store of value. Current crypto legislation in Congress is at a crossroads, marked by bipartisan efforts to regulate digital assets - especially stablecoins - while grappling with deep concerns over national security, conflicts of interest, and the pace of innovation. The proposed GENIUS Act, which seeks to establish the first comprehensive regulatory framework for digital stablecoins, has attracted support from both sides of the aisle and significant pushback. Lawmakers are urging that the bill include safeguards against illicit activities and prevent potential conflicts of interest. These issues that have been magnified by the involvement of high-profile figures and their affiliated businesses, especially in regards to President Trump. Tensions have arisen particularly among Democrats, several of whom recently reversed course on their support. Key figures led by a group of nine Democratic senators had expressed reservations or outright opposition until the legislation addresses their concerns, including ties to Trump-affiliated crypto ventures. These conflicts resulted in a procedural vote of 49-48 against pushing the GENIUS act forward, essentially killing the proposed bill. All Democrats voted against, along with three Republicans, including Rand Paul of Kentucky. Whether or not the House attempts to pick up the reins on crypto legislation remains a clouded picture. With determined resistance emerging, it's probably a dead issue for the time being. Ultimately, while the GENIUS (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins) Act and related proposals represent the most serious attempts yet to integrate crypto into a formal regulatory framework in the United States, for now it appears a dead issue. The debate underscores the challenge of regulating a rapidly evolving market without stifling its potential, something the senate was unable to achieve. This negative outcome has left the universe of the broader crypto ecosystem floundering. Bitcoin adherents managed to see the death of U.S. crypto legislation as a badge of honor, a blow to the status quo and further evidence that bitcoin and the thousands of alt-coins are beyond legislation, being world assets not controlled by borders or governments. The surge past $100,000 was a defiant reminder of bitcoin's emerging role in global finance. At the same time, gold was down sharply, a confounding adjunct in the changing dynamic of money and currency.
At the Close, Thursday, May 8, 2025:
Thursday, May 8, 2025, 9:40 am ET Thank goodness earnings season is winding down. It's not been pretty. Many companies, claiming tariff uncertainty, have either lowered their full year guidance or pulled it completely. Maybe the world would be a better place without guidance, without analyst expectations every quarter for every company. Come on, surprise us! People need a break from the near-constant din of economic news, forecasts, predictions, data drops, innuendo, guesses and geo-political lies. The truth, or as close as one can get to it, is that corporate executives and politicians (often one and the same) aren't really ever going to open up and say exactly what they're thinking and they're even less prone to let anybody not deeply connected in on what they know and how they know it. If there's a recession heading America's way, rest assured the common men and women who do all the hard work, raise kids, shop, cook, clean and keep a household will be the last to know. In Washington, D.C., and on New York's Wall Street, they know. They always do. It's a fact that most trades on the major exchanges are done by computers, completely on their own. It's like 85-90%, and it's gotten to a point at which it is just not trustworthy. For instance, old-timers will tell you that back when actual humans executed most of the trades, stocks didn't go up six percent or eight percent on releasing their earnings report, no matter how good it was. That happens regularly these days. Also, the S&P doesn't jump or drop 30 or 40 points in 10 or 15 minutes. It's physically impossible for humans to enter in that volume of trading simultaneously to cause a rise or fall like that, but, the S&P did that twice yesterday and it does so on a regular basis. And, just in case you're wondering when was the last time the gold:silver ratio was over 100:1, as it is now (103 today), the answer is five years ago, just after the onset of the COVID scamdemic. Before that, um, never. Are stocks overpriced? You betcha. The Shiller PE or CAPE, is at 34.50, which is down a little from the third highest peak of 37.36, in October of last year. That happens to be higher than the peak before Black Monday in 1929 which ushered in the Great Depression (31.48). The other two higher peaks were in October 2021 (38.58, COVID strikes again) and November 1999, just before the great dot-com bust. After the close Wednesday, Carvana (CVNA), AppLovin (APP), Cliffs (CLF), AMC (AMC) and others released first quarter earnings. Wednesday morning, Shopify (SHOP), Crocs (CROX), Yeti (YETI), ConocoPhillips (COP), Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD), Peloton (PTON) and others released theirs. Doesn't matter, just like the Fed keeping the federal funds target rate at 4.25-4.50% yesterday. That rate could be ZERO and people woould still get mailings offering them credit cards with a $400 limit, 35% interest rates and annual fees of $96. There used to be usury laws. Not any more. The current financial system is running on fumes. It's about to expire. The U.S. dollar has almost no purchasing power which explains why the stock market isn't about investing in strong American companies that produce dividends on a regular basis without fail. It's about making a fast buck, and the bigger and faster the better. We're still in a bear market. Despite the recent rally, the major indices are still well off their highs. Year-to-date, the Dow is down 3.36%, S&P down 4.26%, and the NASDAQ, -8.14%. That may not sound too bad, but the second leg is coming shortly, which is nearly certain to last longer and drop deeper. America's finances are a mess. Congress is a den of thieves. Only the connected win, and you and I are not connected. Why do you think bitcoin is closing in on $100,000 and gold is off its highs, to say nothing of the biggest scam ever, silver at $32 an ounce? It's because the big money controls everything and all that matters are headlines on Bloomberg, CNN, CNBC and Reuters. There is going to be hell to pay and you and I will be the ones getting the bill.
At the Close, Wednesday, May 7, 2025:
Wednesday, May 7, 2025, 8:21 am ET Market volatility - in both directions - continues to be the major theme of the markets this season. Earnings have been a mixed bag, with some companies thriving - like Microsoft and Meta Platforms - and others just surviving - Amazon and Apple. Because of tariff trauma, an unhealthy number of companies have either slashed forward guidance or withdrawn it altogether, notably, airlines, JetBlue, American, United, just to name a few. Because of the on/off daily differences of opinions, rumors, and statements, company managers have no way to predict much more than which way the wind might be blowing on any given day, much less three, six or 12 months from now. There's even more to consider. Warren Buffett steps down. The pope dies. India and Pakistan are exchanging fire. Ukraine is still largely unsettled. What's a trader or investor to do? For passive investors like the bulk of workers who are enrolled in long-term pension, IRA, or 401k plans, there's little choice but to hold the line and either retreat to defensive stocks or move funds into fixed income or money markets. Active traders, especially hedge funds and portfolio managers of the big firms like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Schwab, Merrill Lynch, et. al., are trying their level best to get a grip on the situation, even though it changes day-to-day. Perhaps the best advice comes from CNBC's Jim Cramer, not exactly a beacon of logic or prudence, who often advises investors of all stripes to do nothing during earnings season, which is thankfully beginning to wind down. Had one taken such a blod, sage step to stand back, the results may turn out to be of a positive nature. Stocks - of course, depending upon specific allocations - have clawed back all of the losses stemming from the April 2nd "Liberation Day" tariff announcement, and are looking to add to gains at this juncture. After markets closed on Tuesday, the White House, via Treasury Secretary Bessent, announced that China and the United States would be meeting in Switzerland later this month, the first indication that the two warring sides of the trade imbroglio, are approaching readiness to hammer out some kind of compromise rather than tear each others' economies apart with tariffs of 125-145% on all manner of goods. At the same time, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reported an earnings beat sending shares higher in the after-and-pre market. Supermicro (SMCI) reported with weak guidance, sending share lower by six percent. Rivian (RIVN) lost money again, posting -0.48, which was actually a beat, but the stock is caught in a downdraft, and Wynn Resorts (WYNN) reported EPS of $1.07, a miss, but the stock is up three percent. All three reported after Tuesday's close. Wednesday morning offered better news as Disney reported a solid quarter with theme parks resurrected and the addition of over a million subscribers to their various streaming services. Shares are ripping higher by six to eight percent. And there's an FOMC meeting today, at the conclusion of which, they will announce no change to the federal funds target rate. Nobody cares. On the other hand, UBER reported this morning with a huge earnings beat of 0.83, but the stock is selling off by four percent before the bell, which brings to mind more sage advice, this offered by none other than John Maynard Keynes, who quipped, "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." There may be something to be learned from that.
At the Close, Tuesday, May 6, 2025:
Tuesday, May 6, 2025, 9:05 am ET The first full week of May began with some sobering news after stocks had risen steadily - the Dow and S&P up nine straight sessions - that brought markets back to earth at the open. Tyson Foods (TSN) released fiscal second quarter results prior to the bell and warned that it faced a challenging environment, especially in beef products. The stock rook a nosedive right out of the gate and finished the day down 7.75%. Berkshire-Hathaway's (BRK.B) founder and legendary stock-picker, Warren Buffett, announced he would step down as CEO at the end of the year, naming Greg Abel as his replacement. The board voted unanimously to promote Abel to the CEO position and to keep Buffett, 94, as Chairman. The news came as a shock to shareholders and sent shares tumbling five percent on the day, just one session removed from making an all-time high (540.92). Buffett's departure is seen as the end of an era for the vast holding company Buffett built. His acumen in the market and uncanny ability to find and acquire top-performing companies are unrivaled in the investing universe and shareholders are likely to be correct in their assessment of the situation that nobody will produce the kinds of returns Buffett has over the past 60 years. Adding to the downbeat mood, Foot Locker (FL), a major retailer of sneakers and athletic footwear, closed at $13/share on Friday and tumbled to a close of $12.04 Monday, down 44% year-to-date. The company, which has already suffered a net loss ove the past four quarters, is under pressure to produce profits in a sector that is expected to be adversely affected by tariffs. Shares closed down seven percent on Monday. Looking forward to Tuesday's session, investors are eyeing more earnings. Reporting after Monday's closing bell, Palantir (PLTR) reported a strong quarter but investors are apparently choosing to take profits as the stock price has risen nearly 400% over the past year. Shares are trending eight percent lower in pre-market activity. Ford (F) pulled its forward guidance and warned that the company would take a $1.5-2.5 billion hit from President Trump's tariffs. Shares are down more than two percent before the bell. Stock of the iconic American car manufacturer is trading around $10 per share. Tuesday morning, Marriott (MAR) provided some hope at least in the hospitality space. Shares of the international hotelier are trending two percent higher as the company topped Wall Street estimates of $2.27 per share by posting adjusted EPS of $2.32. Ag giant Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) topped estimates of $0.68 per share with adjusted earnings of $0.70, though the company faces a challenging environment with operations in the Ag Services & Oilseeds segment, a significant contributor to ADM's revenue, seeing a 52% decrease in operating profit due to tariff and trade policy uncertainties. Shares are modestly higher in pre-market trading. Oil was smacked lower Monday as OPEC+ announced another round of production increases. The rising production quotas are seen by analysts as punishment meted out by Saudi Arabia, the bloc's largest producer, to other members of the cartel for not adhering to lower quotas over the past year. The Saudi's can handle lower producer prices while many of their counterparts will struggle economically. Whatever the condition or purpose of the call for increased production, it comes at a particularly sensitive time, as tariff worries confound countries and economies already seeing signs of recession, especially in Europe. The price of WTI crude dipped as low as $55.93 Monday. It has since recovered to trade above $58, though it is unlikely to hold that level, already a four-year low. While lower oil prices should serve as a boon to businesses relying on energy and consumers who fuel their vehicles, the overall impact is seen as yet another sign of global retrenchment. At the same time, gold has rebounded sharply after dropping to a low of $3,222 last week. The price per ounce is up more than $140 from Friday's close. Silver has also risen, up more than $1 from its close of $32.18 last week to a high of $33.35 Tuesday morning. The crypto space is under pressure this morning, with bitcoin falling below $93,000 for the first time in over a week after hitting an interim high above $97,000 just a few days ago. With less than an hour until the opeing bell, stock futures are sharply lower. Dow: -304; NASDAQ, -245; S&P, -51. As the Dow gained more than 3,000 points and the S&P more than 525 since April 21, stocks have once again become rather frothy, despite little easing of global trade and tariff tension. The Federal Reserve begins its two-day FOMC meeting today and announces policy - expected unchanged with the federal funds target rate at 4.25-4.50% - Wednesday at 2:00 pm ET. Apparently, the stock-loving community isn't waiting around to hear Chairman Powell opine on how the Fed is data-driven and sees market dynamics as evenly balanced. Many Fed watchers 0 including President Trump - have grown impatient awaiting their promised rate cuts, which have stagnated since a one percent rip lower from the September, November, and December 2024 meetings. The markets are moving on without the Fed, which is probably a condition that should have occurred earlier in the business cycle. Increasingly isolated by Trump's fiscal re-tooling, the Fed continues to suffer from lack of public confidence in its ability to affect positive economic outcomes. Good riddance.
At the Close, Monday, May 5, 2025:
Sunday, May 4, 2025, 11:46 am ET Even though the Kentucky Derby was run on a very sloppy track, two of the favorites came through as champions as Sovereignty and Journalism ran 1-2. Congratulations to Godolfin Stables, rider Junior Alvarado and trainer Bill Mott on their victory. A happy weekend was shattered this morning upon reading an article about a bill in congress that purports to create a "new" savings vehicle for Americans. This kind of thing reeks of everything wrong with the current political and financial systems. Today we have a perfect example of why Americans - or any person of sound mind anywhere in the world - should exchange their fiat currency (dollars, yen, pound, euro) for gold and/or silver and keep the metals in their own possession. Essentially, despite President Trump's desire to "drain the swamp", because the corruption in the government and banking system is so vast and deep, politicians and bankers will continue to rob individuals blind, either by taxation, obfuscation, inflation, or just plain theft. Bankers and politicians consider your money to be theirs, so, until that changes (probably never), the solution for most people is to keep assets out of the system as much as possible. That is why gold and silver (honest money), purchased privately and kept quietly, are among the few choices available to avoid taxation and the prying eyes and hands of government. A bill in the House of Representatives [PDF] put forward by Tennessee representative Diana Harshbarger for a "Universal Savings Account (USA)", is being promoted as "tax advantaged." A companion bill has been introduced in the Senate by Texas Senator Ted Cruz. Here's what the Tennessee rep said about the bill:
"It's an honor to partner with Senator Cruz on this commonsense legislation to empower Americans to take control of their financial futures. The Universal Savings Account Act cuts through red tape and gives every American a flexible, tax-free way to save, invest, and spend ‹ without government interference or penalties." If one makes an effort to read the actual bill, one would be hard-pressed to actually understand how it benefits the account holder. If representative Harshbarger and senator Cruz wanted to create essentially a brokerage account in which contributions are taxed as ordinary income upon withdrawal but any gains were not taxed, they should have just spelled it out in simple language, but they didn't, because the bill was almost certainly written by bankers, for bankers, not for individuals, as they purport and revealing exactly how these accounts function would likely result in very few people using them, although, as a May, 2024 report by the Tax Foundation finds, Canadians and British subjects make widespread use of such accounts. (can you spell S-H-E-E-P-L-E?) Rep, Harshbarger's statement is the ultimately disingenuous and hypocritical. Her bill does not provide a "tax-free way to save, invest, and spend..." nor does it diminish "government interference." It's nothing but another way for bankers and politicians to fleece the herd. For what it's worth, Rep. Harshbarger won her East Tennessee house seat in 2020 on a platform that stressed a religious background, which, in itself, is somewhat of a turn-off to some people. But, being "religious" and a Republican, she won handily, and won again in 2022 and 2024 and will probably win every two years until she's 80 or 90 (currently 65). For a "god-fearing" woman, Harshbarger isn't shy about making money or lying, for that matter, a trait that is shared by most, if not all, politicians. In 2013, her husband, Robert, agreed to a four-year prison sentence and payment of fines and asset forfeitures totaling about $1.2 million for his involvement in the pharmaceutical company, American Inhalation Specialists (AIMS), pleading guilty on charges of introducing misbranded drugs into interstate commerce and health care fraud. Diana, in her initial run for congress in 2020, said flatly that she had nothing to do with the company, even though official documents list her as secretary of the corporation at various times before, during and after a federal investigation, indictment, and conviction. Both Mrs. Harshbarger and her husband are pharmacists. So, is this woman the kind of person Americans want sponsoring legislation that will affect their life savings? As if Harshbarger's background isn't sketchy enough, when she ran for her House seat in 2020, she was purportedly worth $11.5 million, failed to report stock trades in a timely manner on companies including Facebook (META), Walmart, Apple, Verizon, Coca-Cola, Chevron, defense contractors Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, Chegg, and vaccine-makers, Johnson & Johnson and Regeneron in violation of the STOCK (Stop Trading On Congressional Knowledge) Act, that requires legislators to disclose trading activity, though many, if not all, senators and House Reps. routinely violate this toothless law. She's probably quite a bit wealthier now, since she's an quite an active trader. There wasn't time for this report to delve into Senator Cruz's background, though it's doubtful it could be any more disturbing than Harshbarger's, if that's even possible. Thus, a weekend despoiled by government elitists beyond the law. The root of all evil lays within the Capitol. D.C. currently stands for "Deeply Corrupt."
The major indices notched another solid week, the second straight, now having erased all of the post-"Liberation Day" April 2nd declines. Notably, the gains were led by the Dow Jones Transportation Average, which gained 4.30%, followed by the tech-laden NASDAQ, up 3.42%. The tariff trauma pullback is now being described in part as a healthy correction. Wall Street sentiment turned on a dime with the April jobs number of +177,000, from gloomy to thrilled. It's a traders' market for certain. Whether stock prices can continue to grow from here seems likely. The majors have defied the various "death cross" warnings by vaulting past their 50-and-200-day moving averages. Earnings were once again mixed, with Apple and Amazon disappointing while Meta and Microsoft showed improvement in the tech space. It's still a mixed bag with more important earnings figures from the first quarter to hit this week, including: Monday: (before open) Tyson (TSN), FootLocker (FL), Berkshire-Hathaway (BRK.B), FreshPet (FRPT), Cummins (CMI); (after close) Palantir (PLTR), Ford (F), Hims|Hers (HIMS) Tuesday: (before open) Marriott (MAR), Archer Dainiels Midland (ADM), Celcius (CELH); (after close) Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Supermicro (SMCI), Rivian (RIVN), Wynn Resorts (WYNN) Wednesday: (before open) Walt Disney (DIS), Teva Phameceuticals (TEVA), Uber (UBER), Barrick (GOLD), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Johnson Controls (JCI); (after close) Carvana (CVNA), AppLovin (APP), Cliffs (CLF), AMC (AMC), Thursday: (before open) Shopify (SHOP), Crocs (CROX), Yeti (YETI), ConocoPhillips (COP), Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD), Peloton (PTON); (after close) Mercado Libre (MELI), DraftKings (DKNG), Cloudflare (NET), Coinbase (COIN) Friday: (before open) Enbridge (ENB), Algonquin (AQN), Gogo (GOGO). Eyes will be on the Federal Reserve's May 5-6 FOMC meeting, looking for any signals from Fed Chairman Powell or other indications in the official release that the Fed is considering lowering interest rates. With inflation now clearly not an issue, the Fed might want to goose markets a little, though it's unlikely to do so at this meeting. If anything, the Fed will want to stand pat and might throw cold water on rate cut hopes. With first quarter GDP in hand, and, knowing that the -0.3% contraction was almost fully the result of a rush of imports ahead of Trump's tariff regime, will view the economy as somewhat balance. The 177,000 April jobs reported Friday will also temper their enthusiasm for easier money.
There were few changes in the makeup of the treasury yield curve. The week's gains in stocks sent treasuries back roughly to levels seen two weeks ago. Spreads remained elevated with 2s-10s at +50 basis points and full spectrum moderating down to +41. The FOMC meeting this coming week (May 5-6) is likely to be uneventful as the Fed pares back speculation over rate cuts. Growing increasingly inconsequential, the Fed's role as a force for moderating the world's economies continues to be diminished. Chairman Powell and his cohorts may like to believe they have magic monetary powers, but their involvement in the continued loss of purchasing power of the U.S. dollar proves that they are nothing more than financial alchemists, counterfeiters to the world. Spreads:
2s-10s
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
WTI crude oil closed out the week in New York trading at a price of $58.38 the lowest level since February 5, 2021 ($56.85). The Strategic Oil Reserve took in just over a million barrels recently, as President Trump is beginning to refill essential oil storage facilities after Joe Biden cynically drained them over the past four years. Despite steady declines in the price of oil, gas prices remain stubbornly high. Except for the first two days of April, WTI crude prices have been below $70 for two full months and have been below $65 for the past month yet gas prices are higher than they were mid-March and well above levels seen in December of last year when WTI was in the mid-$60s and the national average was close to $3.00. Regular drivers are wishing the people in the energy business would stop peeing down their backs and telling them it's raining. With oil prices trending into the $53-57 range, gas prices should be well under $3.00 already on a national basis and heading lower. Ravaged by inflation the past two to three years, consumers are growing impatient and are tired of hearing excuses about refining capacity and shortages that don't exist. Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.14, two cents higher than last week. The expectation for the national average to fall below $3.00 soon has not been proceeding according to basic supply and demand dynamics. The best thing the United States could do for its economy would be to promote building - or at least revamping existing - refineries, something that hasn't been done in 30-40 years. Big energy companies are not about to commit the billions needed for what would be a development that should be undertaken, thus, it won't be. Gas prices continued to fluctuate across the most of the country, the top price retained by California at $4.73, down another two cents on the week. Mississippi reclaimed the low spot from Oklahoma, cheapest in the nation at $2.63, edging out Louisiana ($2.67) by four cents. Texas ($2.72) and Oklahoma ($2.73) were next. Outside of Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida the Southwest continues to be the cheapst region, with Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas and South Carolina all in a range of $2.69-2.75. Florida remains the outlier at $3.08. Outside of Pennsylvania ($3.34) and Maryland ($3.14), New England and East coast states all range between $2.86 (New Hampshire) and $3.06 (Vermont, New York). Midwest states are led by Illinois ($3.35), the price six cents lower than last week. Kansas ($2.83) is the lowest, followed by Kentucky ($2.85) and Missouri ($2.87). Ohio ($3.14) Indiana and Michigan ($3.20) each jumped higher. All other states in the region are just below $3.00. Along with California, Washington is the only state above $4.00, stable at at $4.23. Oregon ($3.86) and Nevada ($3.74) continue seeing slight price declines. Arizona checks in at $3.29, though neighboring New Mexico is a bargain at $2.80. Idaho and neighboring Utah are both at $3.26, both pennies higher this week. Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in fewer states this week, with at least 25 hitting the mark. Prospects for lower gas prices remain unfulfilled.
This week: $95,497.28 The fascination with vapor-ware crypto-currencies found new life this week. Even as the centuries-old store of value, gold, was being devalued, bitcoin grew legs and vaulted toward the $100,000 mark once again. However, bitcoin "hodlers" and the whales which control its price cannot have it both ways. Either bitcoin stands as a replacement of value and a medium of exchange for the failing U.S. dollar or it doesn't. If gold is not preferred, then, according to the bitcoiners, crypto will be the way forward. Somehow, this line of thinking is flawed. Bitcoin adoption is stillborn. There has been no advancement in its use as a medium of exchange for years. When PayPal adopted it in 2020, there was instant price appreciation, but then a relapse. From the end of 2022, bitcoin followed roughly the same path as gold, straight up, to new heights, much of it based upon SEC approval of spot ETFs at the behest of Wall Street backroom operators. Since peaking in late January, bitcoin has declined, just recently rebounding. The continued decline of ethereum and other alt-coins suggests that bitcoin stands alone as the speculative leader in a very suspect space. Bitcoin has not been over $100,00 since February 4. It's possible that the entire crypto space is fracturing. Bitcoin's oft-referenced enabler, Ethereum, is down 45% year-to-date. Crypto as a general economic concept may be beginning to be exposed as an extended techno-pulsed Ponzi vaguely similar to tulip bulbs or the delusions of Bernie Madoff. Bitcoin's price ultimately is an amalgam of speculation, greed, the madness of crowds, large-bodied manipulation, money laundering, and Wall Street slush fund interference. Beyond the facade, there is empty space.
Gold:Silver Ratio: 100.91; last week: 99.89 Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 4/6: $3,056.10
Silver price 4/6: $29.52 Despite gold and silver being summarily devalued on the COMEX the past week, Money Daily's weekly survey of prices on eBay revealed some intriguing dynamics in the retail trade. Though the "official" price of precious metals has been generally discounted recently via LBMA spot fixing and the usual shorting regime on the COMEX after gold hit a high just above $3,500 and silver touched $34 pr ounce, retail purchasers have not been deterred, with prices maintaining high valuations on the eBay platform. It's worth considering that gold bugs and silver stackers alike may not consider the generally-accepted pricing mechanisms as legitimate, especially with the emergence of metals exchanges emerging in places like Shanghai, Moscow, Dubai, and Singapore. While buyers of one ounce coins and bars may not be as sophisticated or deep-pocketed as their central bank counterparts in global markets, they may be more attuned to international trends than people in the business suspect. Both gold and silver have been appreciating at a rapid pace since October, 2022, and even more rapidly the first four months of 2025, the pullback over the past week on the COMEX, in particular, has been largely based upon a narrative that Trump's tariffs are not going to produce a recession or any great disruption to trade, and any danger of an economic "event" may have been overstated. What precious metals buyers do understand is that the next economic crisis will be one of a monetary sort, involving currency debasement, with the U.S. dollar as the key factor. President Trump's trade policies are encouraging a weaker dollar, so that, even though the U.S. economy appears balanced and growing, the purchasing power of the currency continues to decline (some believe swiftly), thus, trading fiat for honest money (gold and silver) still appears to be the most rational trade-off. As the legitimacy of status quo institutions like the LBMA, COMEX, and even the U.S. Federal Reserve are challenged, the inclination toward safety and security in precious metals is enhanced. There isn't an expert alive who believes a gold:silver ratio of 100:1 is reasonable or rational. A reordering of the global financial system is still envisioned as probable in the near future of the next three to five years. While that time stamp may be debatable, the tendency is towards not just a restructuring of the now dead-and-buried Bretton Woods construct, but a complete tear-down and rebuild of international finance. BRICS+ is a force representative of a reckoning that cannot be discounted. Their role, and that of the United States, is fundamental to any new paradigm that may emerge. The groundswell in favor of multi-polarity and inclusion of emerging economies in world finance and trade has gained traction, Whether a new system with gold at its core emerges remains to be seen. From the perspective of precious metals adherents, a gold standard is the most desirable outcome. Without some base monetary unit such as gold, the expectation for chaos and continued uncertainty and division is evident. There's some possibility that the world's powers - the U.S., China, Russia, India, and possibly Brazil - will attempt some kind of compromise, which would likely fail, before eventually getting it right. In the interim, gold and silver are more likely to appreciate in value than decline in importance no matter the politics. Silver's value as a monetary and industrial metal cannot be understated. Whether the political climate is stable or chaotic is not likely to upset the trend toward further price advances. The belief that the recent price pullback is based on a more orderly world is likely to be found wanting as the evolution of money commences. Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell back during the week, to $40.48, a $1.48 decline from the April 27 price of $41.96 per troy ounce. Premia remain high. When (if) the silver shortage ultimately becomes unmistakable, the price gains will be explosive. WEEKEND WRAP If it ever stops raining, there might be rays of hope for what remains of Sunday.
At the Close, Friday, May 2, 2025:
For the Week:
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