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Weekly Survey of Gold and Silver Prices
Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark
Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.
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Non-Farm Payrolls Scream Higher in May, Up 272,000; Wall Street Displeased with Strong Economy Friday, June 7, 2024, 9:03 am ET Heading into Friday's session, this is where stocks stood for the week through Thursday's close:
Dow: +199.85 All of that will likely change for the better if the May Non-Farm Payroll is under 150,000. Over 220,000 would be bad for stocks because that would suggest the economy and labor market are strong. Wall Street wants weak numbers that would give the Fed better rationale to cut interest rates. While there's an official FOMC meeting next week (Tuesday, Wednesday), consensus opinion is for the Fed to keep rates steady, with the Federal Funds target rate at 5.25-5.50%, where it has remained for nearly a year. The last hike was in July, 2023. Last month, the BLS reported total non-farm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was 3.9 percent. Expectations are for a similar figure for May, with most forecasts centered around 180,000. On Wednesday, ADP reported private payrolls increasing by 152,000 in May. Even though that would seem to be in line with expectations for Friday's BLS report, the two separate employment surveys often vary wildly. Futures were nearly flat heading into the 8:30 am ET BLS release, with the NASDAQ showing the best, up about 30 points. Upon the announcement of total non-farm payroll employment increasing by 272,000 in May, and the unemployment rate up to 4.0 percent (somewhat divergent trends) the Wall Street reaction was swift and extremely negative. The 4.0% unemployment figure marked the first time the rate was above 3.9% in 28 months, but that didn't prevent stock futures from sinking to the lowest levels of the morning. As of 8:45, Dow futures were off by 190 points; NASDAQ futures fell 105, and S&P futures were down 30, with the trend clearly to the downside. Gold and silver, which had been experiencing a significant downdraft (gold, -$39; silver, -$1.01) fell further still, with gold trending down to a range around $2,335 after topping $2,400 overnight. Silver was being mauled, down to $30.00 per ounce, just a day after it had rebounded to $31.44 on the COMEX continuous contract. Judging by the lack of enthusiasm in the Thursday session, the BLS jobs report figures were not entirely unexpected. Without clear guidance that the Fed will cut interest rates before the November elections, stocks have been largely up and down, though the NASDAQ has been a stellar performer, thanks mostly to Nvidia (NVDA), which has been carrying the index over the past few weeks. This strong jobs report, despite it coming from the dubious source at the BLS, is not making Wall Street hucksters any happier. While the NASDAQ is likely to remain positive for the week, some of the gains are probably going to be erased in the final session of the week. The Dow is in danger of another week in the red, while the S&P may hold onto some gains. Anything is possible.
At the Close, Thursday, June 6, 2024:
Thursday, June 6, 2024, 9:22 am ET More than a few countries, especially in Asia and Africa, have expressed their distaste for American politics and the weaponization of the US$ in international trade and diplomatic relations. Among the more outspoken critics of U.S. policy are Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and its foreign minister, Hakan Fidan. And now, Turkey is actively considering joining the BRICS+ economic alliance, a loosely co-mingled collection of countries that are bypassing the U.S. dollar, using their own currencies in bi-lateral trade within a climate of co-operation and mutual benefit, aspirations which fly in the face of the United State's and European Union hegemony, sanctions, threats, and war-making. Turkey, which applied for membership in the European Union in 1999, has not been able to make headway toward full membership in the European bloc, owing mainly to stalling by the EU itself and differences in ideologies of some members (Germany in particular). It now appears that Turkey has become frustrated playing the waiting game - while also seeing Sweden and Finland's memberships fast-tracked last year - and will consider abandoning EU membership in favor of aligning with BRICS+, which already numbers 10 official members. In addition to original members, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, five more countries were added in 2024. Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, and Ethiopia. Argentina had applied and was accepted for membership, but the surprise election (with, no doubt, background support from U.S. interventionists) of Javier Milei as president derailed the process. In the video below, Lena Petrova examines the potential for Turkey's BRICS membership. While it may or may not be the "game changer" she suggests, Turkey joining the BRICS would be another thorn in the side of U.S. policy-makers and another step toward de-dollarization in international trade. Geographically situated at the nexus of East and West, Turkey's acceptance into the BRICS community would be a significant development in global politics and economics.
Here's what one commenter on Ms. Petrova's video had to say:
As a native born American citizen, born in New York City in 1932, educated in the US to university degrees, I would like to join the BRICS, too, as an immigrant. I am fed up with the corruption of my country, the US. I am fed up with seeing my taxes flowing into the pockets of US arms merchants and generals. I am fed up with the pretense of democracy and individual rights. I am fed up with seeing the US making war everywhere, directly, by proxy, and by coups d'etat. - goedelite Such comments are not rare around the internet and are becoming more common. Americans themselves are growing weary of belligerent policies pursued by the West, and frustration with the status quo is growing rapidly. While the BRICS and other countries of the so-called "Global South" move further away from Western hegemony, the process is slow, but evolving. The effects of de-dollarization and backlash from sanctions, restrictions, and threats of militarism will not be felt immediately, but, rest assured, they will be impactful, incrementally over the course of the next 10 to 20 years. Time is clearly not on the side of the West as individualist American patriots are beginning to abandon the precepts and institutions of federal government, and, like Turkey, beginning to seek viable alternatives.
At the Close, Wednesday, June 5, 2012:
Wednesday, June 5, 2024, 9:21 am ET Stocks got a boost Tuesday as the April JOLTS report showed job openings in the U.S. falling to a three-year low. According to the BLS, job openings fell -296,000 to a 3-year low of 8.059 million, well below expectations of 8.350 million. The number added fuel to the rate cut fire. Wall Street analysts expect the Fed to begin lowering the Federal Funds target rate - currently at 5.25-5.50% - at its September meeting. A small number of analysts expect rate cuts sooner, at the July meeting. With the FOMC meeting next week (June 11-12), prospects are for a change in the Fed's messaging, citing weaker conditions in the U.S. economy, though most believe they will keep rates where they've been since July, 2023, for now. With market participants "pricing in" rate cuts, stocks continue to rise, though when and if the Fed actually lowers rates, it may become more of a "buy the rumor, sell the news" event. Wall Street experts predict all kinds of things, but the rate cutting event has been on their radar ever since the Fed began raising interest rates in March of 2022 as inflation skyrocketed, reaching a high above nine percent in the summer of 2022. Transitioning into Wednesday's market action, ADP released its May Employment Report, showing private employers added only 152,000 jobs in May. The report cited job gains slowing in May due to a steep decline in manufacturing and in leisure and hospitality, an odd condition, as resorts and restaurants should be gearing up for the usually busier summer season. Job losses in manufacturing totaled 20,000 in May. Leisure and Hospitality showed an overall increase of 12,000 jobs, though that number is well below trend, even on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Small businesses with 20-49 employees were hardest hit, losing 36,000 jobs. Businesses with 500 or more employees saw the best gains (+98,000). 101,000 jobs were created in the South, while the West saw a reduction of 10,000 jobs, according to the report. Weakness in the jobs market will strengthen the bulls' case for the Fed to cut rates sooner rather than later. As the Federal Reserve is usually three to six months late on any policy changes - owing ultimately to its conservative standards - rate cuts in June or July would really go against the grain. Suspicious minds also believe that rate cuts in September - at the last FOMC meeting prior to the November elections - will be instrumental in winning a second term (maybe he'll actually win this time) for Joe Biden. The calculus of a stronger stock market due to lower interest rates amid a weakening economy makes for a tough call. There's a good chance that second quarter GDP may show contraction after first quarter GDP came in at a weak 1.3% (second estimate). One can easily imagine a scenario in which the economy tanks and takes the stock market down a notch or two with it. How that translates into votes for Biden and Democrats is questionable. Therein lies the potential for a Trump victory and much chaos prior to the January 2025 inauguration. Speculation being what it is, Wall Street is obviously less concerned with overall economic conditions than it is with keeping the rally - now seven months long - intact and moving forward through the summer months. As Wednesday's opening bell approaches, everything is up, including even gold ($2,362.50) and silver ($29.80). Stock futures are soaring...
At the Close, Tuesday, June 4, 2024:
Tuesday, June 4, 2024, 9:27 am ET Even as OPEC+ announced extensions to existing production cuts over the weekend, crude oil traders took the signal as one of impending or already occurring demand slackening, sending WTI crude oil to its lowest price since early February. WTI crude closed out Monday's trading at $73.70, down sharply from Friday's level of $77.18. As Tuesday gets underway, the price continues its decline, dropping as low as $72.61 in the early morning. Equities traders are taking the hint that the economy is not quite as strong and vibrant as certain government officials would like the public to believe, sending futures lower after a rocky start to June on Monday. Stocks were initially on the rise, but took a turn for the worse mid-morning, with the Dow down as much as 400 points. As per the standard interventionist game plan, stocks quickly reversed the slide just after noon ET and ramped higher the remainder of the session. The Dow closed with a loss of 115, while the NASDAQ managed to turn a 190-point loss into a 93-point gain by the close. Naturally, market skeptics took the ugliest interpretation of the trading regimen as yet another indication of a big money pump and dump scenario that has been playing out since April, with institutions selling at the highs. 30-month highs (16,057.44, November, 2021) were made repeatedly on the NASDAQ from the end of February through May, the last peaking just over 17,000 (May 28). Much of the noisy trade the past few months has been hype and speculation over the impact of AI investments and especially Nvidia's sterling performance. NVDA is up more than 115% this year. Futures are looking a little less grim than earlier in the morning as the starting bell approaches, though still clearly indicating a red open. Dow futures are down 100 points; NASDAQ futures off 36; S&P down 16. A bloodbath is approaching. Stock holders best prepare for some shocks.
At the Close, Monday, June 3, 2024:
Sunday, June 2, 2024, 11:57 am ET The week was one of the more chaotic in recent memory, with overall emphasis to the downside for stocks, bonds, and precious metals. Volatility, as measured by the VIX, began the week at 12.49, and reached as high as 14.74 on Friday prior to a face-ripping afternoon rally that took the Dow Industrials to their best single-day showing of 2024. Stocks Apparently, the oversold condition on the Dow Jones Industrial Average was so acute on Friday that buyers stepped in en masse just after noon, sending stocks skyward. The index of 30 blue chip stocks gained 300 points in just the final 20 minutes of the week-ending session. Similar gains were seen on the S&P and NASDAQ, though all the major indices finished in the red for the week, except for the Dow Transports, which sported a gain of just more than one percent. The NASDAQ was down 287 points just after noon. The rally moved the index to a loss of just two points by the close. Action was furious towards the closing bell with short sellers covering in a panic. Of course, there was simply no catalyst for the trading other than momentum-chasing algorithms piling into AI-infused positions. Despite the wild Friday ride, stocks were overall punished for the week, pushing toward one month lows. In particular, the Dow had dropped nearly 1900 points since May 17. Unremarkably, the S&P index touched down on its 50-day moving average, which was likely the match that lit the rally fuse. The broad index was down by 42 points at midday, but magically rallied to close with a gain of... yes, 42 points. The week ahead will be focused on May non-farm payrolls, which will roll out prior to the open on Friday. It's enough to keep traders and analysts pre-occupied. In the interim, a few more companies of note will release earnings reports. On Monday, Gitlab (GTLB) reports after the close. Tuesday has Bath & Body Works (BBWI) before the open and Crowdstrike (CRWD), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), and Sportsman's Warehouse (SPWH) after the close. Discount retailer, Ollie's (OLLI) Campbell's (CPB), and RV-manufacturer, Thor Industries (THO) report Wednesday before the open, with Five Below (FIVE), Victoria's Secret (VSCO), and semi-maker, Semtech (SMTC) after the closing bell. Thursday's reports include J.M. Smucker (SJM), Toro (TTC), Big Lots (BIG), and Ciena (CIEN) before the opening bell, with DocuSign (DOCU) and Vail Resorts (MTN) after the close. While the jobs numbers should come in close to expectations, revisions from March and April will be closely watched as investors are wary of the calculus employed by the BLS in arriving at employment figures. The Fed has an FOMC meeting June 11-12, coinciding with the opening of the BRICS Games in Kazan, Russia, site of the 2024 BRICS Summit.
Yields continued higher on long-dated treasury notes and bonds, though the pace continues to be moderate. The 30-year yield was up eight basis points, to 4.65% and the ten-year note yield gained six bips, finishing out the week at 4.51%. 5s, 7s, and 10s remain dis-inverted (lower, normal) as related to 30s. The two-year yield dropped four basis points, to end the week at 4.89%. Friday's close-out numbers deviated radically from Wednesday's, with high yields matching those from May 1. Thursday and Friday saw yields and spreads back into the Fed's "safety zone." 2s-10s moved up from -47, to -38, but the big move was on the full spectrum (30-days - 30-years), gaining 16 basis points, from -99 to -83. Through primary dealers, the Fed is exercising some degree of yield curve control (YCC), which has been proven by Japan to be largely ineffective against inflation-driven speculation. Spreads:
2s-10s
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
WTI crude oil ended the week at $77.18, down slightly from last Friday's $77.80. With the Biden team draining the Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve of its 1 million barrels between Memorial Day and the 4th of July, the lower price is being viewed as election-year politicking and little to do with actual supply-demand dynamics. OPEC+ countries agreed Sunday (today) to extend voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels of crude oil a day into 2025. The cuts were originally intended to expire at the end of June, but ministers of the major oil producers sought to offset record supply produced by the United States, despite the current administration's rhetoric about clean, renewable energy. Gasbuddy.com reports the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.52 a gallon down sharply in the aftermath of the Memorial Day weekend. California remains the most expensive in the nation, a gallon of unleaded regular running $5.01 on Sunday, down nine cents from last week and 17 cents lower over the past two weeks ($5.18). Pennsylvania eased prices down four cents, to $3.73, the leader in the Northeast. New York ranks second at $3.63, with Maryland and Connecticut both at $3.61. Illinois membership in the $4+ club was cancelled after just a few days, the overall price in the Land of Lincoln dropping to $3.90. Oklahoma has the lowest prices in the country, checking in on Sunday at $2.97, followed by Mississippi ($2.98) and Arkansas ($2.99). Texas is $3.04. Tennessee is $3.05. Georgia ($3.35), and Florida ($3.43) are the highest in the Southeast. The Midwest ranges between lows in Kansas ($3.08) and Missouri ($3.16) to highs of $3.30 and $3.32 in Wyoming and Colorado, respectively. Arizona dropped another seven cents and remained below $4.00 for a fourth straight week ($3.78), leaving California, Washington ($4.48), Oregon ($4.24), and Nevada ($4.21) - all lower - a gang of four comprising the $4+ club. Utah ($3.49) and Idaho ($3.68) continue to see prices easing.
This week: $67,703.10 Bitcoin remains below the March 13 high ($73,096). The trend ever-so-slightly negative.
Gold:Silver Ratio: 76.82; last week: 77.19 Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 5/3: $2,310.10
Silver price 5/3: $26.78 Prices for gold and silver were higher mid-week, but were slapped down on Thursday and especially Friday, with gold falling from a high of $2484 and silver down from a high of $32.42. The price drop to close out the week left gold down just $10 and silver actually up a couple cents. This did little to curb enthusiasm on eBay or at online retailers, where premiums remain high. Even with prices down entering the weekend, purveyors on eBay, which includes many of the prominent online retailers, kept one-ounce gold coins neatly below $2,500, similar to offerings on their websites. The number seems to have a magical quality to it and dealers don't seem to be willing to tempt fate by exceeding it in their offers. Silver is commanding premia of 10% or more almost everywhere, the recent high prices pushing dealers closer to spot, especially on common rounds and bars of 10 ounces or less. There isn't much of a break from the norm around $33-35 per ounce at any weight. Year-to-date, gold is up 13.23%, silver, 27.60%. The reality of de-dollarization and continued heavy central bank buying is contributing to a renewed appreciation of precious metals. Expectations for higher prices - $2500 gold and $35 silver - are rampant and will likely be met and exceeded within months. Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell for the week, to $40.26, losing $1.33 from the May 26 price of $41.59 per troy ounce, though it maintained a price above $40.00 for a fourth straight week.
Though the week had only four days worht of active trading, there were significant swings in the major asset classes. Only oil remained relatively stable on the week, a condition that's likely to remain in play as OPEC+ extending production cuts is offset by increased output in the U.S. and sub-optimal demand. Government policies and the sham nature of the courts (Trump) are leading American citizens to abandon delusions that the federal government is actually working in their best interests. Following recent events many Americans have become entirely disenchanted with government and are seeking alternatives to politicization and weaponization, misinformation, disinformation and outright lies proffered by top officials and toady media. There remains a widespread contingent of citizens who believe Trump will be elected in November, and, if not able to right the ship of state at least will stop it from careening into the shoals of disintegration. They may be right, or wrong, but the die has been cast by the unelected leaders of the 2020 coup and many are giving up hope that elections will solve anything. The United States is in dangerous waters. Those seeking safety or recourse are in the minority but their numbers swelled greatly this week. Life in what used to be known as the beacon of freedom and liberty should not be this precarious and fraught with derision and distrust.
At the Close, Friday, May 31, 2024:
For the Week:
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IdleGuy.com June 2024, Vol. 1 #5