 | MONEY DAILY | Commentary on Stocks - Bonds - Gold - Silver - Crypto - Oil/Gas and more |
| HOME | PRICE GUIDE | STORE | BLOGS | SPORTS | BUSINESS | WILD SIDE | CONTACT | ARCHIVES |
Weekly Survey of Gold and Silver Prices
Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark
Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.
PRIOR COVERAGE:
|
Friday, July 5, 2024, 8:37 am ET Other than the Dow Industrials, stocks continued to melt up in advance of the 4th of July holiday in a short session Wednesday. After the fireworks from the 4th, Friday will be a full session - ending at 4:00 pm ET - and odds are good that stocks will trade higher again to close out the week. On the immediate agenda is June's Non-Farm Payroll data from the oh-so-reliable Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which has consistently fudged employment gains throughout the Biden administration's hold of the White House. The numbers are absurdly positive in an economy that isn't creating high-paying, full time jobs. Expectations are for the number to come in somewhere around 190,000, down sharply from May's 272,000, which is almost certain to be revised, probably lower. On Wednesday, ADP reported 150,000 new jobs created in June, lower than the expected 157,000 and the third straight month in which the number has declined. Job gains or losses are a key element in the ongoing rate cut expectation game. If the labor market is seen as weakening, it could push the Federal Reserve's FOMC to cut rates sooner than expected or by more than assumed (0.25%), or more quickly than currently assumed. The number was released just minutes ago, with 206,000 new jobs in June and the unemployment rate at 4.1%. The change in total non-farm payroll employment for April was revised down by 57,000, from +165,000 to +108,000, and the change for May was revised down by 54,000, from +272,000 to +218,000. Elsewhere, Bitcoin was slaughtered over the holiday, falling to a low just below $54,000. Bitcoin traded as high as $71,000 as recently as June 6. Watchers of the pseudo-currency say the decline is due to redemptions from the Mt. Gox fallout and Germany putting more bitcoin back into circulation. The current bitcoin price range is the lowest since February and puts to rest much of the speculation over the halvening effect which some, like serial pumper, Anthony Scaramucci, expected to push the price above $200,000. Different strokes, different folks.
At the Close, Wednesday, July 3, 2024:
Wednesday, July 3, 2024, 11:20 am ET If anybody other than Donald Trump becomes president of the United States come November, the country is doomed. Even if Trump does win, America is likely to have fallen so far behind the rest of the world in terms of modernization, international relations and trade that playing catch-up will be a costly and possibly pointless endeavor. Democrats, the media complex, and Trump-hating Republicans (there are many) known as RINOs will thwart any efforts by a Trump administration to move the country in a positive direction. How the stock market continues to levitate to new highs day after day in light of these future conditions is a question only the slick traders and money mavens can answer. It's likely that the continuing melt-up off the October 2023 lows is based more on momentum and stock buybacks than sound, fundamental investment practices. Thus, it only stands to reason that stocks will continue to rise until something stops them. It could be anything, literally, from a banking crisis to commercial real estate implosion to re-ignition of inflation, the last of which is pretty much certain. Meanwhile, the greedy front men and back room operators are accomplishing only a few things with the steady gains in stocks. They are pushing everybody into stocks, like it's the only way to make money, like it is not risky, and the gains of today will be there tomorrow. They are perpetuating the myth that the U.S. economy is on sound footing, while all the evidence - including the soon-to-be $35 trillion in debt and the more than $1 trillion annual interest payments at the federal level - points in the other direction. Above all else, they are making rich people richer. The saddest part of it all is that the "money" people are making day after day, trade after trade, is being squandered by the government, and relentlessly debased until it becomes utterly worthless, a la Weimar Germany. Consider what is happening in the rest of the world while the U.S. and its Western counterparts continue to wage wasteful wars in Ukraine and the Middle East - which they are losing on both fronts - such as the following: On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Astana, Kazakhstan for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit along with leaders of other Asian nations. The leaders of the participating countries will discuss issues of further deepening cooperation, as well as current international and regional problems. The Astana Declaration and 24 joint documents will be signed. The Astana summit itself will take place Wednesday and Thursday, as the leaders of the SCO member states also hold a number of bilateral meetings. The heads of state with observer status and dialogue partners will also be present. Putin will attend talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and Acting Iranian President Mohammad Mokhber. Following the summit, Belarus is expected to officially join the SCO. Elsewhere, India and ASEAN nations, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines are collaborating to establish a platform for instantaneous cross-border retail payments. This initiative, known as Project Nexus, is a product of the Innovation Hub of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). The United States and Europe are being marginalized while their leadership engages in war mongering, snap elections, politicing, media propaganda and an overall fruitless effort to convince their populations that they are still "leaders of the free world" led by a catatonic president in the U.S., Biden, a sidelined president in France, Macron, a hated leader in Canada, Trudeau, and a soon-to-be-defeated prime minister in the UK, Sunak. Western leadership has failed spectacularly, though the roots of the problems and issues facing Americans and Europeans have deeper roots, stretching back decades, not the least of which was the decision to favor military industry over domestic infrastructure, which is falling down and failing across both continents. None of this ends well for the West with Wall Street more than happy to spread the grifting around to members of congress, chummy fellow big-wig executives, hedge funds, and other crony capitalists of their choosing. Thursday is Independence Day, a celebration of freedom in America, commemorating the separation of the American states from Britain in 1776 as the Declaration of Independence was approved by the Continental Congress. If only subsequent generations had learned how to protect liberty and independence and keep tyrants in check, America would not be in the sorry state it is today.
At the Close, Tuesday, July 2, 2024:
Tuesday, July 2, 2024, 9:50 am ET OK, it's the second half of the year. Stocks did so well in the first half, investors are pondering the "hot hand" fallacy so famously explained by actress Selena Gomez and Behavioral Economics pioneer Dr. Richard H. Thaler in the film, "the Big Short", as seen below:
There are a number of circumstances of which most people aren't aware or fail to adequately understand.
First, there are penny stocks on the NASDAQ. Lots of them. Here's a brief list of just a few stocks that have been trading under $1 for most of the last six months or longer:
NASDAQ delists stocks that fail to trade above $1 for ten or more sessions over a six-month period, but, there are all manner of methods to stay on the exchange, like reverse splits, special circumstances, and others, so, many stocks just trade at sub-$1 levels for longer periods. There are many more stocks like the ones listed above and professionals are pumping and dumping them like never before. Second, silver, yes, physical silver, was the top-performing asset of the first half (+22%). That was better than the NASDAQ (+19%) and S&P (+15%). The next three top-performers were all commodities: WTI Crude oil (+14%), Gold, and Copper (both +13%). Third, the Fed can't keep playing its game of chicken with interest rates indefinitely. Either the yen is going to go the way of the dodo bird and become extinct or many U.S. banks are going to go under within months. Fourth, the derivatives monstrosity that was behind much of the sub-prime meltdown in 2008 has not gone away. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are still in U.S. receivership. Mortgages are still being packaged as they were back then and the Fed holds loads of them. Liquidity, which is the usual proximate cause of most market corrections and crashes, is drying up. Consumers are tapped out. Banks are upside down. The next big downturn will trigger margin calls by the thousands, with money due in the billions. Ditto for derivative bets. It's only a matter of time. Getting the timing right is probably going to be crucial, but nobody knows what will trigger the next crisis or when.
At the Close, Monday, July 1, 2024:
Sunday, June 30, 2024, 9:05 am ET What was expected to be a slow week for stocks was just that. Even the Fed favorite inflation gauge, PCE, showing signs of slowing inflation couldn't keep stocks afloat at high multiples as Friday saw stocks open higher and slide the rest of the session. Moving on, June Non-farm Payrolls will be out Friday, but there's likely to be a real lack of interest, as most of the country - including Wall Street pros - will be taking a four-day weekend despite markets being open on Friday, July 5 for a half-day session, closing at 1:00 pm ET. July 4th, of course, is Independence Day in the U.S., a national holiday, and all markets, banks, postal services, etc. will be shuttered on Thursday.
It was another slow week for stocks, with the largest gain among the majors less than one-quarter percent (NASDAQ, +0.24%) while the Dow and S&P dipped ever so slightly negative thanks to a mid-morning reversal Friday. Shockingly, the underperforming Dow Jones Transportation Average levitated two percent higher on the week. Dump, pump, repeat. With the first half finalizing on Friday, there was no window dressing, only profit-taking. The stock market rally, now eight months old, does appear to be running on fumes. Word that insiders are selling to retail, whether true or not, would be unsurprisingly about par for the course. The week ahead will be a shortened one by 1 1/2 sessions, closed Thursday and a half-day Friday, which will also offer June Non-Farm payroll data prior to the open. Stocks remain extended near all-time highs. Rate cut hopes via a weakening economy continue to contribute to the "bad news is good news" mantra. There's hope that some under-appreciated equities can play catch-up to the Nvidias and Amazons of the world, but the net result would be sideways trading at best. Thursday night's debate disaster for the Biden team put yet another spin narrative into the mix, namely, that the Democrats would remove the blabbering old coot prior to or even at the convention in August. If anything, Trump's slap-down of the current White House resident has encouraged some rethinking of the overall investing calculus. Lots of balls in the air.
Trading in treasuries remained somewhat moribund, though the longest end of the curve experienced outflows, with the 30-year and 20-year leading the way with yield up 12 basis points, to 4.51% and 4.61%, respectively. Yield on the 10-year note made a three week high, to 4.61% and 3s, 5s, and 7s were all up seven basis points or more, but the two-year note hardly budged, settling for a rise in yield of a mere one basis point. This week's trade showed further disdain for anything approaching longer term U.S. debt. Foreigners are still dumping, led by Japan, which is in the throes of a severe adjustment that threatens their entire economy along with various carry trades with other currency pairs. While Wall Street pundits cheered on lower PCE on Friday, the results from the stock and treasury markets told a different story. The fear of inflation re-igniting and/or a U.S. recession are still top-of-mind considerations. Spreads:
2s-10s
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years) Oil/Gas WTI crude oil ended the week higher again, at $81.46 with futures trading as high $82.68. The prior week's closing price of $80.59 was tested and exceeded. This marks the first time since April that WTI has ended over $80 two weeks in a row. Producers have to be pleased with the price, considering all the production quota cutbacks there have been. End consumers, on the other hand, aren't too pleased with the high cost of fuel, though it's not as bad as last year, when prices rocketed from just under $70 at the end of June to above $90 by the latter days of September. Gasbuddy.com reports the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.49 a gallon, up a nickel from last week. Should WTI begin trending towards $85 or $90 per barrel, this week's price would look like a bargain in the rear-view mirror. California remains at the top of the gas heap as the most expensive state in the continental U.S. A gallon of unleaded regular is $4.76, down two cents from last week, the lowest price in more than six months. Prices in Pennsylvania have reversed and are heading higher again, to $3.64, the Keystone state remaining the price leader in the Northeast. New York is close by at $3.57, followed by Connecticut and Maryland, both at $3.55. Prices inched higher in Illinois, with a gallon costing $3.84. Mississippi has the lowest prices in the country, though up three cents from last week, at $2.91, followed by Louisiana ($2.94). Those are the only two states with prices below $3.00. The rest of the Southeast ranges from $3.02 (Oklahoma) to $3.19 (South Carolina), with the exception of ouliers, Georgia ($3.31), and Florida ($3.38). The Midwest ranges between lows in Kansas ($3.09) to highs of $3.69 in Michigan, though most reside in a range between $3.25 and $3.35. Notably, Ohio comes in at $3.55, and Indiana at $3.61. Arizona dropped another three cents and remained below $4.00 for an eighth straight week ($3.56), leaving California, Washington ($4.31) and Oregon ($4.05) a trio alone in the $4+ club. Nevada ($3.99) dipped just below the threshold. Utah fell three cents ($3.43) while Idaho ($3.57) was higher by seven cents. With 4th of July travel expected to be heavy, these prices may not hold through the middle of the coming week, and, if oil prices continue to rise, so too the price at the pump.
This week: $61,281.10 Over Sunday and Monday of the past week, bitcoin's price took a serious downturn of more than $3,500 and hasn't recovered, trading in a range between $60,000 and $62,000 through the week and into the weekend. While the slide was swift and ended just as quickly, despite the explanations of the sudden drop being tied to Mt. Gox redemptions or spot ETF outflows, bitcoin's decline began well before, after peaking above $71,000 on June 6. It's been a descending diagonal line since then and remains a dangerous speculation.
Gold:Silver Ratio: 79.41; last week: 78.08 Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 5/31: $2,347.70
Silver price 5/31: $30.56 Like just about everything else this week, movements were inconsequential in the precious metals markets. Gold gained exactly $2.20 for the week. Silver lost 47 cents. Gold nearly hit $2,350, while silver got to within a few pennies of $30.00 per ounce. Riggers at the COMEX exercised nearly flawless control. Nothing at this stage of the game really matters when it comes to the price of gold and silver. Geopolitics being in a holding pattern until the November general election in the U.S., it is quite possible that the sharp rally in metals earlier in the year could have already faded and may not resume for some time. Central bank buying has slowed, but lower prices leveling off imply that it is a temporary condition. sovereign wealth funds and central banks will continue buying gold as a tier 1 asset so long as the United States and the almighty dollar retain hegemony and the world's reserve currency. The process of de-dollarization hasn't altogether been halted, though it has been slowed to a small degree. Speculation that Donald Trump will be inaugurated president (again) come January, 2025 could keep the process in a state of suspended animation. Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose ever-so-slightly for a second straight week, to $39.99, gaining four cents from the June 23rd price of $39.95 per troy ounce.
Following the 4th of July, there will not be another short week until Monday, September 2 (Labor Day), so those unfortunate junior traders will be at their posts every weekday for the next eight weeks running. There are a multitude of cross-currents affecting prices, assets, politics, and societies. We are living in interesting times!
At the Close, Friday, June 28, 2024:
For the Week:
All information relating to the content of magazines presented in the Collectible Magazine Back Issue Price Guide has been independently sourced from published works and is protected under the copyright laws of the United States of America. All pages on this web site, including descriptions and details are copyright 1999-2024 Downtown Magazine Inc., Collectible Magazine Back Issue Price Guide. All rights reserved.
|
