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Weekly Survey of Gold and Silver Prices
Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark
Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.
PRIOR COVERAGE:
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Sunday, June 30, 2024, 9:05 am ET What was expected to be a slow week for stocks was just that. Even the Fed favorite inflation gauge, PCE, showing signs of slowing inflation couldn't keep stocks afloat at high multiples as Friday saw stocks open higher and slide the rest of the session. Moving on, June Non-farm Payrolls will be out Friday, but there's likely to be a real lack of interest, as most of the country - including Wall Street pros - will be taking a four-day weekend despite markets being open on Friday, July 5 for a half-day session, closing at 1:00 pm ET. July 4th, of course, is Independence Day in the U.S., a national holiday, and all markets, banks, postal services, etc. will be shuttered on Thursday.
It was another slow week for stocks, with the largest gain among the majors less than one-quarter percent (NASDAQ, +0.24%) while the Dow and S&P dipped ever so slightly negative thanks to a mid-morning reversal Friday. Shockingly, the underperforming Dow Jones Transportation Average levitated two percent higher on the week. Dump, pump, repeat. With the first half finalizing on Friday, there was no window dressing, only profit-taking. The stock market rally, now eight months old, does appear to be running on fumes. Word that insiders are selling to retail, whether true or not, would be unsurprisingly about par for the course. The week ahead will be a shortened one by 1 1/2 sessions, closed Thursday and a half-day Friday, which will also offer June Non-Farm payroll data prior to the open. Stocks remain extended near all-time highs. Rate cut hopes via a weakening economy continue to contribute to the "bad news is good news" mantra. There's hope that some under-appreciated equities can play catch-up to the Nvidias and Amazons of the world, but the net result would be sideways trading at best. Thursday night's debate disaster for the Biden team put yet another spin narrative into the mix, namely, that the Democrats would remove the blabbering old coot prior to or even at the convention in August. If anything, Trump's slap-down of the current White House resident has encouraged some rethinking of the overall investing calculus. Lots of balls in the air.
Trading in treasuries remained somewhat moribund, though the longest end of the curve experienced outflows, with the 30-year and 20-year leading the way with yield up 12 basis points, to 4.51% and 4.61%, respectively. Yield on the 10-year note made a three week high, to 4.61% and 3s, 5s, and 7s were all up seven basis points or more, but the two-year note hardly budged, settling for a rise in yield of a mere one basis point. This week's trade showed further disdain for anything approaching longer term U.S. debt. Foreigners are still dumping, led by Japan, which is in the throes of a severe adjustment that threatens their entire economy along with various carry trades with other currency pairs. While Wall Street pundits cheered on lower PCE on Friday, the results from the stock and treasury markets told a different story. The fear of inflation re-igniting and/or a U.S. recession are still top-of-mind considerations. Spreads:
2s-10s
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years) Oil/Gas WTI crude oil ended the week higher again, at $81.46 with futures trading as high $82.68. The prior week's closing price of $80.59 was tested and exceeded. This marks the first time since April that WTI has ended over $80 two weeks in a row. Producers have to be pleased with the price, considering all the production quota cutbacks there have been. End consumers, on the other hand, aren't too pleased with the high cost of fuel, though it's not as bad as last year, when prices rocketed from just under $70 at the end of June to above $90 by the latter days of September. Gasbuddy.com reports the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.49 a gallon, up a nickel from last week. Should WTI begin trending towards $85 or $90 per barrel, this week's price would look like a bargain in the rear-view mirror. California remains at the top of the gas heap as the most expensive state in the continental U.S. A gallon of unleaded regular is $4.76, down two cents from last week, the lowest price in more than six months. Prices in Pennsylvania have reversed and are heading higher again, to $3.64, the Keystone state remaining the price leader in the Northeast. New York is close by at $3.57, followed by Connecticut and Maryland, both at $3.55. Prices inched higher in Illinois, with a gallon costing $3.84. Mississippi has the lowest prices in the country, though up three cents from last week, at $2.91, followed by Louisiana ($2.94). Those are the only two states with prices below $3.00. The rest of the Southeast ranges from $3.02 (Oklahoma) to $3.19 (South Carolina), with the exception of ouliers, Georgia ($3.31), and Florida ($3.38). The Midwest ranges between lows in Kansas ($3.09) to highs of $3.69 in Michigan, though most reside in a range between $3.25 and $3.35. Notably, Ohio comes in at $3.55, and Indiana at $3.61. Arizona dropped another three cents and remained below $4.00 for an eighth straight week ($3.56), leaving California, Washington ($4.31) and Oregon ($4.05) a trio alone in the $4+ club. Nevada ($3.99) dipped just below the threshold. Utah fell three cents ($3.43) while Idaho ($3.57) was higher by seven cents. With 4th of July travel expected to be heavy, these prices may not hold through the middle of the coming week, and, if oil prices continue to rise, so too the price at the pump.
This week: $61,281.10 Over Sunday and Monday of the past week, bitcoin's price took a serious downturn of more than $3,500 and hasn't recovered, trading in a range between $60,000 and $62,000 through the week and into the weekend. While the slide was swift and ended just as quickly, despite the explanations of the sudden drop being tied to Mt. Gox redemptions or spot ETF outflows, bitcoin's decline began well before, after peaking above $71,000 on June 6. It's been a descending diagonal line since then and remains a dangerous speculation.
Gold:Silver Ratio: 79.41; last week: 78.08 Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 5/31: $2,347.70
Silver price 5/31: $30.56 Like just about everything else this week, movements were inconsequential in the precious metals markets. Gold gained exactly $2.20 for the week. Silver lost 47 cents. Gold nearly hit $2,350, while silver got to within a few pennies of $30.00 per ounce. Riggers at the COMEX exercised nearly flawless control. Nothing at this stage of the game really matters when it comes to the price of gold and silver. Geopolitics being in a holding pattern until the November general election in the U.S., it is quite possible that the sharp rally in metals earlier in the year could have already faded and may not resume for some time. Central bank buying has slowed, but lower prices leveling off imply that it is a temporary condition. sovereign wealth funds and central banks will continue buying gold as a tier 1 asset so long as the United States and the almighty dollar retain hegemony and the world's reserve currency. The process of de-dollarization hasn't altogether been halted, though it has been slowed to a small degree. Speculation that Donald Trump will be inaugurated president (again) come January, 2025 could keep the process in a state of suspended animation. Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose ever-so-slightly for a second straight week, to $39.99, gaining four cents from the June 23rd price of $39.95 per troy ounce.
Following the 4th of July, there will not be another short week until Monday, September 2 (Labor Day), so those unfortunate junior traders will be at their posts every weekday for the next eight weeks running. There are a multitude of cross-currents affecting prices, assets, politics, and societies. We are living in interesting times!
At the Close, Friday, June 28, 2024:
For the Week:
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IdleGuy.com June 2024, Vol. 1 #5