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Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.
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Friday, July 19, 2024, 8:44 am ET So, you want to make money in stocks, right?
Here's where the major indices stand for the week through Thursday's closing bell: If you were just playing the indices, you might be around unchanged. It's a game. Chances are good that the Dow will finish to the upside, the NAZ and S&P in the red. If you were smart enough to buy small caps, like the Russell 2000, about a month ago, you're up anywhere from seven to 10 percent. The question remains: will it hold? Higher? Not. Really. Investing. It's gambling. Now, go pay your tribute, er, capital gains tax. The bottom line, for stocks, especially, is to hold through the ups and downs, collect dividends, and trust your gut, or your broker, or your girlfriend. Have a nice weekend.
At the Close, Thursday, July 19, 2024:
Thursday, July 18, 2024, 9:14 am ET The tech-heavy NASDAQ slid 512.42 points (2.77%) to end at 17,996.92, posting its worst point loss since April 26, 2022 (-514.11), closing below 18,000 for the first time since July 1. The S&P 500 lost 1.39% to close at 5,588.27 while the Dow set another intra-day and closing high, finishing the session at a hefty 41,198.08, up 243 points. Once again it was the highest-priced stock on the Dow leading the way. United Health (UNH) popped another 24 points (4.45%) after ripping higher on exceptional second quarter earnings on Tuesday. The questions people are asking, considering the duopoly of NASDAQ down, Dow and small caps up, are, where is this going? and Is any of this sustainable? For the NASDAQ and S&P the answers are reasonably suspicious. After falling back from all-time highs, there's certainly an incentive to "buy the dip", a strategy that has worked well very often in the past. However, stocks are currently priced past perfection and the move lower on the NaSDAQ may have just been a warning volley across the bow of many tech-laden portfolios, relying on AI or some other miracle to keep the ball rolling. As far as where this is all headed, keep an eye on gold and the dollar index. Long term, nothing is very sustainable, but the long term may be longer than most people realize. A 3-5 year outlook may be more suitably extended to 7-10 years. It's almost too much to ask of any analyst to make predictions at this juncture. Half an hour before the opening bell, stock futures cover the waterfront. S&P and NASDAQ futures are raging higher; Dow and Russell 200 futures, lower. The general perception, despite all the crosswinds, is that everything will work out just fine, which happens to be the perfect set-up for all manner of unexpected results.
At the Close, Wednesday, July 17, 2024:
Wednesday, July 17, 2024, 8:53 am ET Making up for lost time on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average of 30 Blue Chip stocks gained the most since Friday, June 2, 2023, when the index closed at 33,762.76, with a gain 701.19 points (+2.12%). While the Dow ended higher by 742 points, it wasn't even in the top 20 all-time point gains for the industrials. Nevertheless, it was significant, while the NASDAQ and S&P eked out much smaller gains. The NYSE Composite closed at a record. Led by United Health (UNH), which posted second quarter earnings that smashed expectations, the Dow was up more than 200 points in the opening minutes after the bell and continued a steady advance throughout the day. UNH was up 33.35 points, or 6.47%. At $548 per share, it contributed largely to the Dow's performance. Also sending the Dow higher were Boeing (BA), up 3.87%, and Home Depot (HD), with a 2.97% rise. As stocks were continuing their rise into the clouds, gold was making yet another all-time high, hitting $2,482.90 overnight on the COMEX continuous contract. The prior high of $2,449.10 (May 10) was absolutely shattered. Elsewhere, the Republican National Convention proceeded toward making Donald J. Trump the party nominee and markets began assessing what a Trump presidency, along with VP J.D. Vance, would mean for all assets. Oil nosedived, with WTI crude falling below $80/barrel for the first time in a month, and, as dawn broke on American shores, stock futures tanked on the prospects of steeper tariffs on China, but less emphasis on military involvement concerning Taiwan. The Biden administration was doing its part to curb free trade, calling for harsh measures agains chip manufacturuers. Tokyo Electron sank 7.5%; Dutch semiconductor ASML fell 8%, sending tech shares lower across Europe. Nvidia was down 4%; Taiwan Semi (TSM) was down six percent in pre-market activity. The presumptive nominee and current leader in polling is not a fan of military adventurism and would likely put an end to the conflict in Ukraine and pursue a more diplomatic relationship with China and Russia. On the earnings front, J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT) released second quarter results after Tuesday's close. Second Quarter 2024 Revenue: $2.93 billion; down 7%; Second Quarter 2024 Operating Income: $205.7 million; down 24% Second Quarter 2024 EPS: $1.32 vs. $1.81; down 27%. Ignoring results such as these may prove risky. The dollar has been languishing against both the euro and the pound for the better part of the past two weeks and the pressure has been seen in fixed income, with treasuries rallying. The 30-year bond closed out Tuesday with a yield of 4.38%, a marked difference from the 4.64% yield at the start of July. With an hour to the opening bell, stocks in Europe are lower, and U.S. stock fuutres are down across the board. NASDAQ futures are off nearly 300 points, S&P futures down 50, and Dow futures down 110. Take the money and run? Is that the message?
At the Close, Tuesday, July 16, 2024:
Tuesday, July 16, 2024, 9:21 am ET Stocks started the week the same way they ended the last one: on a tear, with the Dow and NYSE Composite making new all-time highs and the S&P and NASDAQ closing in on their own records made just last week. One can hardly blame anybody taking profits at current levels as stocks appear to be extremely over-extended, but, on the other hand, there's no need to make any moves, especially in index funds or index options, as there continues to be upside appeal. As far as being over-extended is concerned, the best gauge is the Shiller PE Ratio, which measures a price earnings ratio based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. The measure is also known as the Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE Ratio), or PE 10. It's currently at 36.32, the third-highest peak all-time, below October, 2021 (38.58) and November, 1999 (44.19), both of which preceded significant downturns. All three of the recent high points exceed the level before the crash of 1929 (31.19, July, 1929) which marked the beginning of the Great Depression, but the current level of debt-fueled monetary insanity seems capable of exceeding every known measure. Considering that the Federal Reserve has only hinted that it would cut rates in the near future and inflation, while lower than previously, is still a wee bit above the Fed's target of two percent (currently 3%, according to the latest CPI), there's every indication that the rally in stocks will continue, possibly right through to the November elections and even beyond. The United States is either the greatest economy the world has ever seen, or there are huge bets on Donald Trump winning in November, or, it's the biggest "greater fool" rally ever, with earnings hardly beating prior quarter or year-ago figures on many stocks. What's peculiar is that bank stocks have fared pretty well. After JP Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citigroup (C) reported prior to the open on Friday with mixed results, Monday was marked by Goldman Sachs (GS) crushing year-ago figures, turning in net earnings for the second quarter of $3.04 billion, significantly higher from $1.22 billion in the prior-year quarter with earnings per share (EPS) of $8.62, compared to $3.08 reported in the year-earlier quarter.GS shares gained 2.57% on Monday. Tuesday saw Bank of America (BAC) post second quarter EPS of 83 cents, bettering estimates, but down from 88 cents a year ago, on a profit of $6.9 billion, compared with $7.4 billion in the same period a year earlier. The disappointment was unfelt. Shares were 1-2% higher in the pre-market. With the opening bell imminent, WTI crude oil continues to decline, down to $80.42 per barrel, stock futures are ripping higher and gold was approaching its all-time high, at $2448.00 before being knocked back at 8:30 am ET.
At the Close, Monday, July 15, 2024:
Sunday, July 14, 2024, 10:25 am ET With Saturday's assassination attempt against Donald Trump, American politics, culture, and society has reached new lows. Though official channels failed to identify the shooter until the following day, everybody with more than two functioning brain cells knows who orchestrated the event. When the Twin Towers were demolished on 9-11, the suspects were identified within minutes. Ditto other false flag operations. Since this was the opposition being targeted, there's no upside for the news media nor the current power players to snap to attention. The timing, two days before the start of the Republican National Convention, reeks of complicity at high levels. If Trump had been killed, America would surely be sinking deeper into the abyss upon which it is already descending. All that was accomplished - besides killing an innocent person and wounding others, including Trump himself - was to further define the degree of desperation currently enveloping the political elite. America doesn't have politics any more. It has blackmail, theft, greed, corruption, and now, assassination attempts. America doesn't have an economy or markets. It has sanctions, statistics, algorithms, zero days to expiration options, multi-billionaires, and hedge funds. America no longer has a functioning society. It has propaganda and false narratives instructing the citizenry how to think. It's a good thing Thomas Matthew Crooks missed.
Meh. Stocks just keep going up no matter the data or objective reality. Thursday's little dip on the NASDAQ was nothing more than institutional profit-taking, all part of the pump-and-dump strategy that remains in play. Topping the gains this past week was the NYSE Composite Index, which was easily the best of the majors, ahead by 2.25%, marking an all-time closing high of 18,505.92. The NASDAQ managed to win Friday handily, resulting in its 11th weekly gain in the past 12. The S&P finished with its 10th weekly gain in the last 12. Just keep buying. That's the clear message.
While stocks continued their 9-month-long rally, bonds buyers were appreciative, sending yields on all long-dated maturities lower. 10-year notes yielded 10 basis points less than the prior Friday, while two-year notes dropped 15 basis points in yield. Should the Fed and its primary dealer proxies continue to snatch up loose treasuries at the going rates, it won't be long before the yield curve dis-inverts and a recession ensues, probably just in time for Donald Trump's election. Yes, that's cynical, but, why should one not be? 2s-10s spreads were squeezed deeper into the safety zone, at -27, the highest since the end of January, when stocks were pumped to ensure a positive January barometer. Full spectrum spread fell to -108, without consequence. Spreads:
2s-10s
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
WTI crude oil came back to earth after four straight weekly gains, closing out Friday in New York at $80.97, down sharply from last week's $83.44. With all the pumping of oil worldwide and demand rather subdued, there's no good reason for oil to be at these levels. In a sane world, WTI crude would be less than $70/barrel. Gasbuddy.com reports the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.50 a gallon, close to the levels seen the past three weeks. Higher prices for crude oil have not yet filtered down to the consumer level. California remains #1 in the U.S. in terms of price. A gallon of unleaded regular is $4.72, same as last week, the lowest price in more than six months. Prices in Pennsylvania continue gradually higher, up two more cents over the week, to $3.68, the Keystone state remaining the price leader in the Northeast, and deservedly so, it being the most corrupt electioneering machine in the country. New York is close by at $3.61, followed by Connecticut and Maryland ($3.59). Prices were up six cents in Illinois, with a gallon at $3.84. Mississippi continued with the lowest prices in the country, though two cents higher again this week, at $2.98, and the only state in the U.S. under $3.00. Arkansas is next at $3.03, then, Louisiana ($3.08). The remaining Southeast states range from $3.08 (Tennessee) to $3.26 (South Carolina), with the exception of outliers Georgia ($3.40), and Florida ($3.50). The Midwest ranges between lows in Kansas ($3.17) to highs of $3.59 in Michigan and Indiana, most in a range between $3.28 and $3.40. Missouri is up, at $3.21; Ohio, down, $3.30. Arizona dropped another three cents and remained below $4.00 for a 10th straight week ($3.48), leaving only California and Washington ($4.28) above the $4.00 level. Oregon was seen at $3.98 and Nevada at $3.97. Utah was stable ($3.53) along with Idaho ($3.58).
This week: $59,657.70 Like everything else, bitcoin is completely FAKE.
Gold:Silver Ratio: 77.75; last week: 76.14 Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 6/14: $2,348.40
Silver price 6/14: $29.62 Gold was up and silver down, but the direction remains the same for both. Higher. Prices on ebay Saturday into Sunday were flying higher, with no let-up in demand. The political climate will surely fuel more price increases. Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose sharply over the course of the week, to $41.55, gaining 84 cents from the July 7th price of $40.71 per troy ounce.
The political crisis facing America and the world is headed for more chaos. Who made the decision to hold the Republican National Convention in the third world city of Milwaukee? The BS is deep and piling up higher. The political and social climate is out of control.
At the Close, Friday, July 12, 2024:
For the Week:
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