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Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.

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PRIOR COVERAGE:

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S&P, Dow Set to Surge as Trump Announces Tariff Deal with Japan; Capital One, Northrop-Grumman Shares Higher; Alphabet, Tesla to Report After the Close

Wednesday, July 23, 2025, 9:05 am ET

Earnings season is in full swing, with many of the most-recognizable and widely-held companies reporting second quarter results this week.

Among the big movers Wednesday morning is Capital One Financial (COF), its latest filing - after the close Tuesday - reflecting the company's merger with Discover. Accounting for the one-time losses stemming from the acquisition, Capital One reported a net loss of $4.3 billion for the second quarter of 2025, or $8.58 per share.

Investors are looking past those expenses, focusing on stripping out the merger charge, making the adjusted earnings per share $5.48, which handily beat analysts' estimate of $4.04 per share.

The combined company is now a behemoth in the credit industry, with card loans of $269.7 billion, and total loans held for investment rose of $439.3 billion, sending shares in the pre-market ripping higher by more than two percent.

Northrop Grumman (NOC) shares are higher as the company boosted its outlook as the protracted Russia-Ukraine war and conflict in the Middle East have boosted demand for weapons.

Those two reports speak volumes about current conditions. Wall Street is giddy over people being in debt up to their eyeballs and foreigners dying in wars waged with American-made weapons. Money talks and Wall Street and Washington D.C. are loaded to the gills with it.

The reaction to results from AT&T (T) wasn't quite as rosy. Despite a solid quarter that including gains to its subscription base, shares are down more than three percent.

Wednesday's trading is likely to revolve around two of the Magnificent 7 stocks, Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla (TLSA), both reporting after the close. International Business Machines (IBM) and T-Mobile US (TMUS) will also be releasing second quarter results after the close of trading. Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) and Mattel (MAT) also report after the market closes.

Meanwhile, President Trump moved markets again Wednesday morning, announcing a trade deal with Japan that reduced tariffs due to begin being imposed on August 1 to 15%. His blatant market manipulation is disturbing. He and others in his administration, such as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, are making bank on stock trades timed against these well-planned raises and walk-backs on tariffs, just as most members of congress do. It's becoming fairly obvious that the rich are enriching themselves with reckless abandon.

Elsewhere, gold and silver continue to march higher, with gold nearing a record high, at $3,437.90, and silver up to $39.80 per ounce on the COMEX an hour before the opening bell.

WTI crude oil continues to slide in the opposite direction, quoted right around $65/barrel Wednesday morning.

Futures are pointing to a strong open, with Dow futures up 223 points, NASDAQ futures lagging, up just 12 points, while S&P futures are higher by 21.

The Shiller PE gained on Tuesday and stands at 38.45, still just shy of the second-highest ever, 38.58, made in October, 2021. Positive news from some of the tech biggies reporting this week, given the lowered bars analysts have set as targets, should push the 500 to more record highs.

At the Close, Tuesday, July 22, 2025:
Dow: 44,502.44, +179.37 (+0.40%)
NASDAQ: 20,892.69, -81.49 (-0.39%)
S&P 500: 6,309.62, +4.02 (+0.06%)
NYSE Composite: 20,658.79, +144.32 (+0.70%)



Americans Will Pay More - Often Much More - for Cars Beginning This Year; U.S. Stocks Look to Be Topping Out

Tuesday, July 22, 2025, 9:25 am ET

Americans will be hard-pressed to find the 2025 Omoda C5 SUV unless they travel south of the border to Mexico, one of the many countries in which this Chinese brand (Chery is the parent company) is manufactured.

With a price of 449,900 Mexican peso (MXN) ($24,070.20 USD) it is comparable to many U.S. compact SUVs at a lower cost, unless you want to buy one in the U.S., where tariffs will increase the price by anywhere from 50-150%, depending on how President Trump feels about China on any particular day. In general terms, you can't buy a Chinese branded car, truck, or SUV in the U.S. because of the high protectionist tariffs.

The Omoda C5 compares with equivalent SUVs available in the U.S. such as the Honda CR-V ($31,495), Mazda CX-5 ($30,265), Ford Bronco Sport ($32,990), or Toyota RAV4 ($31,000). Car & Driver reviewed these and other models as the best compact SUVs for 2025.

All of these vehicles get anywhere from 25-31 MPG, some are available as hybrids or EVs as well.

Editor's Note: Prices quoted for SUVs available in the U.S. are from Car & Driver and do not adequately reflect the price increases due to tariffs. Some of these vehicles are manufactured in the U.S., some not, making price comparisons difficult at best.

When it comes to electric vehicles, the news is only going to get worse for Americans as the EV tax credits expire in September, adding as much as $7500 to the price of already-overpriced EVs. Meanwhile, in China, the #1 EV manufacturer, BYD, recently lowered the price on its entry-level Seagull to under $8,000.

Yes, that's right. Under $8,000. And while the Seagull is a super-compact all-electric vehicle, it will still get drivers from point A to point B. The car is smaller than the discontinued Chevy Bolt EV (4,145 mm long, 1,765 mm wide, and 1,611 mm tall). It’s about the size of a Fiat 500e. The Seagull EV is also sold in other global markets like Mexico and Brazil as the Dolphin Mini.

But, here's the reality check. Later this year, the Seagull will launch in Europe as the Dolphin Surf, with expected prices starting under #20,000 ($26,000). If that's the European price, imagine the U.S. price to be equal if not 25-50% higher.

Tariffs are yet to have much effect, but will begin to show price hikes on August 1st as many go live. Envy of the Global South may begin to appear in America and Europe.

After Monday's pump-and-dump, the Shiller PE now stands at 38.45, just shy of the second-highest ever, 38.58, from October, 2021. With earnings coming out fast and furious over the next two weeks, there's sure to be some sentiment on earnings sufficient to move the needle a little higher.

Monday's trading was typical of a bear market, not the current bull, and could presage a topping out in stocks. The Dow gave up more than 250 points after hitting the highs for the day just after 1:30 pm ET. The NASDAQ and S&P slid from early highs as well, but managed to remain in positive territory.

Tuesday morning's earnings reports are not stacking up well. General Motors (GM) took a $1.1 billion tariff-related hit to its bottom line in the second quarter. Adjusted earnings per share fell to $2.53 compared with $3.06 a year earlier. Shares are three percent lower pre-market.

Lockheed Martin (LMT) is reeling pre-market, down more than seven percent, after the company reported earnings of $1.46 per share, down from $6.85 per share last year. Lockheed said it recorded $1.6 billion in pretax losses on different programs, as well as $169 million in charges during the quarter, which impacted earnings by $5.83 per share. Ouch!

Stocks futures are setting up for a flat to lower open, Dow futures off 27 points, S&P futures up 3, NASDAQ futures are down 5.

Gold and silver are ripping higher prior to the opening bell. Gold is at $3,421.70. Silver, $39.60.

And most of the tariffs haven't even started. Look out below?

At the Close, Monday, July 21, 2025:
Dow: 44,323.07, -19.12 (-0.04%)
NASDAQ: 20,974.17, +78.52 (+0.38%)
S&P 500: 6,305.60, +8.81 (+0.14%)
NYSE Composite: 20,514.47, -27.09 (-0.13%)



WEEKEND WRAP: Epstein, though Dead, Not Going Away; Government Elites Hounded by Allegations and Innuendo of Bribes, Blackmail, Extortion, Malfeasance, Incompetence

Sunday, July 20, 2025, 10:45 am ET

For another week, the stonewalling by the Trump administration over releasing information regarding the life and times of one Jeffrey Epstein stole all the thunder from the usual Wall Street chicanery, whose leading figures are also, no doubt, part and parcel of the vast network of bribery, blackmail, extortion, and malfeasance by which the elite ruling class is guided.

Those seeking better understanding of Jeffrey Epstein and his history, the Tucker Carlson Show presented a nearly-three-hour-long podcast on Friday, with Tucker Carlson joined by Darryl Cooper on the True History of Jeffrey Epstein and Ongoing Cover-Up. The discussion is comprehensive, though not definitive. The truth behind Jeffrey Epstein is likely to be one of those ongoing mysteries like 9-11, JFK, and other incidents the elite government operators would rather keep clear of public knowledge.

Here is Darryl Cooper on the real story of Jeffrey Epstein.

Darryl Cooper is the creator of The Martyr Made Podcast, and is the co-host of The Unraveling w/Jocko Willink, and Provoked w/Scott Horton. He lives with his family on his farm in Idaho.

The rundown:
(0:00) The Strange Origins of Jeffrey Epstein and His Connection to Bill Barr
(18:09) Did Epstein Belong to Intelligence?
(48:52) Who Really Was Robert Maxwell?
(1:16:23) How Epstein Got Rich and His Strange Relationship With Les Wexner
(1:26:34) Is There Any Documented Financial Records of Epstein’s Supposed Hedge Fund?
(1:58:29) The True Definition of Evil
(2:29:41) Did Epstein Kill Himself?
(2:39:26) Cooper’s Message to the White House

Besides the overtones of deep state government and high-profile excesses in places both known and unknown, fair returns on second quarter earnings were revealed, and economic data was sanguine through the past week.


Stocks

For the week, the Dow and NYSE Composite were both down marginally (-0.07% and -0.03%, respectively), while the NASDAQ led the majors with a 1.51% gain. The S&P added a bit more than a half percent. The Dow Transportation Index gave back most of the prior week's gains (-2.14%)

The most under-reported story was Tuesday's CPI reading at 2.7% annual inflation, with core inflation also headed higher, up to 2.9% annualized. Most of Wall Street was content to whistle past the grave on inflation, taking a wait-and-see conviction heading into more summer dog days, awaiting the turmoil which will begin to be revealed come September.

While retail investors weigh their options while asleep at the wheel, there's growing concern amongst hedge funds and other big money managers. Nobody is 100% sure Trump's tariff policies will produce positive results. At the current juncture, there is more concern over the entire facade of U.S. exceptionalism than whether GDP was up or down in the second quarter, the initial estimate for 2Q GDP set for release pre-market (8:30 am ET) on July 30, just prior to the Fed's FOMC rate policy announcement at 2:00 pm ET on the same day.

Nobody can say for certain when the Fed gets that initial second quarter GDP estimate or how it may influence their thinking concerning interest rates, but there's a good chance that Chairman Powell will downplay GDP at his press conference, no matter what the number is.

Before all that, however, the coming week offers some interesting tidbits of economic data, including Monday's June Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board; existing home sales for June on Wednesday; New Home Sales for June, unemployment claims, and July S&P Flash US PMI on Thursday; and June Durable Goods Orders on Friday.

Stocks reporting second quarter earnings this week:

Monday: Verizon (VZ), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), Roper Technologies (ROP), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ)

Tuesday: SAP (SAP), Coca-Cola (KO), Philip Morris (PM), Texas Instruments (TXN), RTX Corp. (RTX), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), Capital One Financial (COF), Northrop Grumman (NOC), General Motors (GM)

Wednesday: Alphabet (GOOG), Tesla (TLSA), International Business Machines (IBM), T-Mobile US (TMUS), ServiceNow (NOW), AT&T (T), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), NextEra Energy (NEE), Boston Scientific (BSX), GE Vernova (GEV)

Thursday: Honeywell (HON), Union Pacific (UNP), Blackstone (BX), Intel (INTC)

Friday: HCA Healthcare (HCA), Aon (AON), Charter Communications (CHTR), Phillips 66 (PSX), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH)


Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date 1 Mo 1.5 mo 2 Mo 3 Mo 4 Mo 6 Mo 1 Yr
06/13/2025 4.23 4.32 4.48 4.45 4.40 4.30 4.09
06/20/2025 4.20 4.38 4.55 4.39 4.40 4.29 4.07
06/27/2025 4.19 4.43 4.49 4.39 4.36 4.26 3.97
07/03/2025 4.35 4.43 4.50 4.42 4.41 4.34 4.07
07/11/2025 4.37 4.39 4.47 4.41 4.42 4.31 4.09
07/18/2025 4.35 4.39 4.46 4.40 4.42 4.30 4.08

Date 2 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 7 Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 30 Yr
06/13/2025 3.96 3.90 4.02 4.20 4.41 4.93 4.90
06/20/2025 3.90 3.86 3.96 4.16 4.38 4.90 4.89
06/27/2025 3.73 3.72 3.83 4.03 4.29 4.85 4.85
07/03/2025 3.88 3.84 3.94 4.12 4.35 4.87 4.86
07/11/2025 3.90 3.86 3.99 4.19 4.43 4.96 4.96
07/18/2025 3.88 3.84 3.96 4.18 4.44 4.99 5.00

Interest rates crept up again this week, with the 10-year note hitting 4.50% and the 30-year bond touching 5.01% on Tuesday. Treasuries are beginning to look like losing prospects unless yields are raised substantially across the longer maturities. There's little comfort holding two-year or three-year notes at 3.80% to 3.90% with core inflation at 2.9% and all goods and services inflation at an annual rate of 2.7%, especially when everybody knows the BLS numbers are bunk, and not very good bunk, at that.

Full spectrum spreads from 30 days out to 30 years jumped up again to an elevated +65. 2s-10s are at the highest of Money Daily's records, +56.

Money Daily warned last week of the 30-year hitting 5.00% and it turned out to be quite the prescient call.

It would not come as much of a surprise for interest rates to continue rising quietly over the coming weeks, as the world rests out the heat of summer. While the U.S. offers attractive yields on longer maturities relative to its peers in Europe, the larger issue of faith in the currency itself is being tested by BRICS continued de-dollarization and the sordid affairs at the apex of government stemming from the Epstein honeypot and continuing cover-up.

For political junkies with leanings toward economics it doesn't get much more exciting than right now. For the amoral ruling class, it doesn't get much more turgid and deceitful. Much more to come as the facade of respectfulness is ripped to shreds.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65


Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil closed out the week at $66.03, a drop of $1.32 from last Friday's finish at $67.35. Oil's stagnation in the mid-60s is probably a fair price for producers and users, causing no ill effects nor inflationary impulse. With summer in full swing, markets in general are more subdued, and with the U.S. congress pretty much done with its legislative agenda for the near term, some quiet time is probably overdue.

Gas prices have followed oil's path on a more immediate basis than usual. It seems retail gas stations are micro-managing prices, adjusting almost on a daily basis with crude oil in real time.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.12, one penny down from last week, mostly insignificant, though pretty much in tandem with the price of oil.

The highest prices in the country were to be found in California, as usual, at $4.48, down two cents on the week.

Prices at the traditional low end have settled, led by Mississippi and Oklahoma (both $2.70), Texas and Tennessee are next at $2.73 and $2.74, respectively. Arkansas and New Mexico both are at $2.75; Louisiana, $2.77; Alabama and South Carolina, $2.78. Georgia, North Carolina ($2.87), and Florida ($3.07) are the highest.

The Northeast continues to be led on the high side by Pennsylvania ($3.21), down four cents. All other New England and East coast states remained at or above $3.00, ranging from New Hampshire at $3.00 to New York at $3.15.

Midwest states are topped by Illinois ($3.42), the price down five cents on the week. Kentucky is the lowest, at $2.83, followed by Kansas ($2.86), North Dakota ($2.87) and Missouri ($2.88). Along with Illinois, only Indiana (3.17) and Michigan ($3.14) are over $3.00. Ohio and Colorado joined the sub-$3 party at $2.93 and $2.94, respectively.

Along with California, Washington ($4.38) is the only other one above $4, as Oregon was down a few cents at $3.96. Nevada ($3.68) dropped two cents. Arizona ($3.18) is still priced at a premium to neighboring New Mexico, a super bargain, at $2.75. Idaho ($3.46) was up two cents, and Utah ($3.32) up a nickel.

Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in one fewer state this week than last, with now 22 states at that level, one more than last week.


Bitcoin

This week: $117,859.20
Last week: $119,022.00
2 weeks ago: $108,808.00
6 months ago: $102,204.30
One year ago: $67,156.72
Five years ago: $9,710.92

Bitcoin made new highs, vaulting over $120,000 during the week, prompting the usual calls for $200,000 and up to a$1 million as the fair value of one of the 21 million satoshis floating through the ether.

Crypto Week concluded with the House passing the GENIUS Act and sending it on to the president, who signed it into law on Friday and will likely be issuing a Trump stablecoin within weeks. Maybe congress can get their own stablecoins, like HouseCoin and SenateCoin, speeding up and improving the method by which elected officials can steal money from taxpayers.

The dense Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (DAMCA) and the Anti-Central Bank Digital Currency Surveillance Act (ACBDCSA) which provides a pinkie-swear resolution that congress will not allow the Federal Reserve to produce a CBDC to enslave everybody were overwhelmingly approved by the House and sent on to the Senate for deliberation. The untrustworthy gang of 100 will get right back to work on these matters right after their month-long August holiday, for sure.

Laws like these are just what America needs: regulations over "money" that nobody can see, touch, or feel, completely under control of elitists in government and the financial industry. Milestones for even less freedom!

Being the gateway drug to controllable, programmable, government digital currency or CBDC, Bitcoin is good training for people pre-conditioned to Pavlovian responses. Please bark when bitcoin hits $125,000. Arf!


Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 87.34; last week: 86.24

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 6/20: $3,384.40
Gold price 6/27: $3,286.10
Gold price 7/3: $3,346.50
Gold price 7/11: $3,370.30
Gold price 7/18: $3,355.50

Silver price 6/20: $35.95
Silver price 6/27: $36.17
Silver price 7/3: $37.13
Silver price 7/11: $39.08
Silver price 7/18: $38.42

Precious metals held their ground amidst a flurry of somewhat directionless economic indicators. The most beneficial to gold and silver owners was likely the June CPI reading from Tuesday, showing headline inflation in the U.S. at 2.7% annualized. While the higher inflation reading is a good signal for PMs as hedges against inflation, the other side of the coin (pun intended) is that being no closer to the Fed's desired target of two percent offers no good reason for the FOMC to lower the federal funds target rate.

Any kind of return on paper assets which is above the supposed inflation rate offers investors choices in either fixed income or risk assets, such as stocks, though returns of roughly four percent aren't exactly great, especially if inflation continues to rise.

Gold and silver offer equally good prospects, as their prices are likely to rise in inflationary environments, unless the Fed decides to go "full Volker" and increase rates to 7, 8, 10 percent or higher, an unlikely occurrence given the current squeamish makeup of the Fed body.

Patience being the primary weapon for gold bugs and silver stackers, PMs remain the ultimate "buy and hold" assets. There is certainly no shame in saving in currencies that are appreciating against almost all others.

Looking at current trends, both metals appear to be consolidating around recent levels. It may take an economic event, such as a rate cut, an even higher CPI reading, or extreme tariff trauma to lift PMs to higher ground, but, considering the general history of the Fed and government bloat, it's a near-certainty that the leading perverts at the head of policy in Western nations will provide one soon enough.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price Low High Average Median
1 oz silver coin: 40.00 49.00 44.63 44.06
1 oz silver bar: 39.00 51.95 46.03 45.42
1 oz gold coin: 3,446.10 3,594.61 3,510.31 3,503.43
1 oz gold bar: 3,435.00 3,545.40 3,510.87 3,513.18

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) dropped slightly this week, to $45.04, a loss of 13 cents from the July 13 price of $45.17 per troy ounce.


WEEKEND WRAP

The recent flak over the "Epstein Files" gives support to the theory that leaders of most Western nations - possibly excluding Japan - are fully compromised and wholly incompetent. With such a backdrop, free (for now) citizens should treat their governments with all the disrespect they so richly deserve, disregarding any ill consequences while working towards a future devoid of sick, twisted sociopaths in powerful positions.

At the Close, Friday, July 18, 2025:
Dow: 44,342.19, -142.30 (-0.32%)
NASDAQ: 20,895.66, +10.01 (+0.05%)
S&P 500: 6,296.79, -0.57 (-0.01%)
NYSE Composite: 20,541.56, -47.96 (-0.23%)

For the Week:
Dow: -29.32 (-0.07%)
NASDAQ: +310.13 (+1.51%)
S&P 500: +37.04 (+0.59%)
NYSE Composite: -6.11 (-0.03%)
Dow Transports: -346.75 (-2.14%)



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idleguy.com July 2025
IdleGuy.com July 2025, Vol. 2 #7