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Weekly Survey of Gold and Silver Prices
Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark
Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.
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Fed's Fave, PCE Index Doesn't Show Inflation Slowing Much at All; Core Stuck at 2.6% Annualized Friday, July 26, 2024, 9:2 am ET It's anybody's guess how stocks are going to finish up the week, one which has been a nightmare for holders of tech stocks, as the NASDAQ is down another three percent after shedding 3.65% last week. On a weekly basis, the NASDAQ is down some 545 points through the close Thursday, the S&P is off by 105, and the Dow is down just under one percent, dropping 352 points. The NYSE Composite has been harmed the least, losing just 61 points, or roughly a third of one percent. While Friday morning futures are pointing towards a positive open, they have no bearing on how markets will perform as the cash session unfolds. It's hopeful to believe that a generalized Friday rally will save the day, though probably not the week. Stocks have been beaten down by varying degrees, and Thursday's evaporation of more than 500 points on the Dow from early afternoon into the close indicates a large degree of fragility in the overall conviction of investors, speculators, and day-traders. It's also likely premature to think that whatever happens on Friday will carry over to next week and beyond. A similar episode took place in April, and that took four weeks to fully flush out weak hands in the NASDAQ and S&P. The current condition has seen steeper declines and steady volume. It may be just the beginning of a larger, cyclical downturn. Getting back to recent all-time highs is going to be a heavy lift, as the current crop of earnings reports have not inspired much confidence, especially in tech-land, evidenced by declines in Tesla (TSLA) and Alphabet (GOOG) in the aftermath of their second quarter reports. More of the Magnificent 7 stocks - Meta, Apple, Amazon, et. al., will be reporting next week, so there's a good possibility for profit-taking no matter how the earnings stack up. Setting the tone for Friday is the release of (and we're getting tired of using and hearing this line) the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for June, which increased 0.1% on a monthly basis, and ticked down 0.1% on an annualized basis, from 2.6% in May to 2.5% for June. Stripping out food and energy, the core PCE Index was a less appealing to those seeking rationale for Fed rate cuts, rising 0.2% in June, remaining at 2.6% annualized. Stock futures, which had peaked just prior to the 8:30 am ET release from the BEA began to slowly unwind when the numbers suggested little, if any, change to the trajectory of inflation nor to any indication of a possible cut to the federal funds rate before September. Current wagering is for one or two cuts this year and up to three in the first six months of 2025. Naturally, the entire argument rests upon the political situation, one which could change radically upon the outcomes of not just the presidential election, but congressional races as well. Thus, the chorus of the rate cut hopeful will have to be more boldly encouraged by CPI readings or other government data, because the "Fed fave" failed the day. The Fed needs to see two percent or something very close to it before pulling the plug on interest rates. The federal funds target rate has remained at 2.25-2.50% for over a year now. A few more months of keeping it the same isn't going to hurt anybody (except maybe some Wall Street bulls) and not cutting before the election would prove positive for the Fed's supposed apolitical reputation. The FOMC meets next week (July 30-31), and then goes home until September 17-18, which would be the last chance for the Fed to cut rates, barring any emergency moves. Where the PCE failed, corporate earnings may pick up the slack. Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), and 3M (MMM) all reported Friday morning and are all sporting gains, the latter two up more than six percent pre-market. Communications service provider Charter Communications (CHTR) is up more than 10% prior to the open. Gold is bouncing back, up to $2,425 on the COMEX continuous contract. Silver is back up to $28/ounce, though buying in small quantities still costs more than $30 per ounce as dealers have not scaled back premiums. Crude oil continues to be under pressure, back down below $78 this morning. There's a chance the Dow could make it back to UNCH for the week, but the NASDAQ and S&P appear to be lost causes.
At the Close, Thursday, July 25, 2024:
Thursday, July 25, 2024, 9:30 am ET Following Wednesday's mid-week meltdown - the worst day for the S&P and NASDAQ in more than two years - news that second quarter U.S. GDP was up 2.8% was exactly what Wall Street bulls - who believe bad news is good and vice versa because bad news begets rate cuts, which is good news - didn't want to hear. But, that is what the Census Bureau released at 8:30 am ET as the initial estimate for GDP. In the case that the U.S. economy is clicking on all cylinders, that would mean that the rate hikes instituted by the Fed from March 2022 through July 2023 have accomplished exactly nothing, as the reason for the hikes in the first place was to cool off the economy. The logic is difficult to accept from any perspective, especially in light of the fact that all government data and figures have been summarily revised for the past two years, making the case that the Biden economy is strong and resilient. Now that Biden has exited stage left, will Kamala Harris get credit for this stupendous result, which, if it holds, would be double first quarter GDP (1.4%). No matter what takes place or who gets credit (if Oprah ran the government, you'd get credit, and you get credit, and you get credit... so, maybe she is actually disguised as Janet Yellen) for sparking up the U.S. economy, the people who have been cheering the Fed towards cutting interest rates now have to shout even louder, maybe. The Core PCE index fell to 2.9% (actually, 3.2%) year-over-year from 3.7%, making no sense at all. With the opening bell within minutes, WTI crude oil is trading lower, of $1.42, to $76.16, the lowest since the beginning of June. Guess the Saudis and Russians will just have to stop pumping altogether. Gold and silver are taking one for the team, that team being the U.S. Exchange Stabilization Fund and the Federal Reserve, both precious metals at "buy me now" levels. Gold: $2,369.50; Silver: $27.79. Adding to the drama, but probably going without mention on CNBC or Fox Business, Japan's NIKKEI index fell into correction territory overnight, dropping by more than 3%, for a total sell-off of 10.5% since July 11. Yep, slowly, then, all at once. Go fish! Updating at 10:00 am ET: Ford Motor (F) shares tumbled 16% after the company's second-quarter earnings came in much lower than analysts expected. Chipotle (CMG), slipped 3% even after topping earnings and revenue expectations as it saw higher traffic at its restaurants. American Airlines (AAL) sank 4% pre-market after cutting its guidance, then rose when the market opened, only to slide lower again. In the end, nobody really cares about American Airlines. It's a $10 stock, soon to become a $9 stock, then an $8 stock, etc. Almost forgot to mention, France's CAC 40 is also in correction space, off 10.2% since the May 15 closing top, 8239.99.
At the Close, Wednesday, July 24, 2025:
Wednesday, July 24, 2024, 9:12 am ET Since October of 2023, stocks have been on a meteoric rise, not just in the United States, but on major indices in places like Japan, Germany, France and Great Britain, all of which have achieved new record highs over the past nine months. Valuations are stretched to extremes, as evidenced by the Shiller PE (CAPE), which stands at a level (35.83) approaching the all-time records of November 1999 (44.19) and October 2021 (38.58). This high P/E, calculated based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years, runs counter to dividend yield on the S&P 500 of 1.30%, approaching an all-time low. Sooner or later, with safety plays in short-term fixed income like money market funds, treasury bills, and corporates yielding 4.5% or higher, the circle will be squared, the anomaly of excessively high multiples against a backdrop of low yielding dividends will coalesce into a powerful correction, and that time appears to be approaching quickly. The NASDAQ and S&P indices having taken a beating over the past week, today looks like the beginning of a global capitulation in equities, as global geo-politics have taken a nasty turn, militarism is amping higher in the Middle East, the U.S. executive branch in chaos with elections less than four months away, and budget deficits in most developed nations reaching debilitating, nose-bleed levels. Overnight, all Asian indices were lower, led by Japan's NIKKEI, down more than one percent. Turning to Europe, the DAX, FTSE, CAC, and Stoxx 50 are all lower, and U.S. futures are looking dismal after both Tesla (TSLA) and Alphabet (GOOG) reported second quarter earnings that were not well-received. Tesla (TSLA) came up short, reporting second quarter EPS of 52 cents against estimates of 62 cents and down 43% from the year-ago period (91 cents). Automotive revenue for the EV pioneer dropped 7% to $19.9 billion from $21.27 billion in the same quarter a year ago. Shares were being sent to the woodshed, down more than seven percent in post-and-pre-market trading. Alphabet (GOOG) fared better, reporting EPS of $1.89 versus expectations for $1.84, and up from the same period a year ago ($1.44), but the company saw YouTube ad revenue declining, a key element in a sector that is under assault from competitors in the online video space such as Rumble, Odyssey, Bitchute and others. Egregious levels of censorship on YouTube is often cited as a reason for creators to abandon the platform, seeking more freedom elsewhere. Overall revenue for the search giant increased 14% year-over-year, though that was down from the 15% gain posted in the first quarter and well below results from prior years which saw revenue gains of 20-30% and higher. Still, shares are down more than four percent in the pre-market. If tech, which has been leading the nine-month rally, falters, as is apparent from the results of two of the so-called "Magnificent 7", the rest of the market is going to spasm lower. With less than an hour until the opening bell, NASDAQ futures are feeling the most pain, down more than 300 points. S&P futures are shedding 53 points, with Dow futures down nearly 200. WTI crude oil dipped below $77 per barrel on Tuesday, the lowest price in more than a month, despite four straight weeks of reported draws. Tapped out consumers, even at the peak of vacation season, is cause for slack demand at the pump. Gold and silver are recovering from losses suffered in the prior week. The trend remains positive for precious metals over the near, medium and especially the longer term. Bitcoin is flat and Ethereum lower, despite SEC approval for a handful of ETFs for the secondary crypto-currency. Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is set to report earnings after markets close Wednesday, a bellwether for consumer spending in the restaurant space. IBM (IBM) also reports after the close. The degree to which investors can endure pain and suffering is about to be tested. Some say it defines character. Others just wince and turn tail.
At the Close, Tuesday, July 23, 2024:
Tuesday, July 23, 2024, 8:48 am ET Just taking a look at as few of the companies that have issued second quarter 2024 earnings results reveals more of what was so common during the first quarter, missing either revenue or profit targets and results generally worse than year-ago comparisons. One such instance is Truist Financial (TFC), the large regional banking firm that was formed in December 2019 as the result of the merger of two failing entities: BB&T (Branch Banking and Trust Company) and SunTrust banks. The company reported on Monday, and delivered the following:
Oddly enough, shares of the company were up three percent on Monday. Verizon (VZ) reported net income in the quarter of $4.702 billion or $1.09 per share compared with $4.766 billion or $1.10 per share in the prior-year quarter. Excluding non-recurring items, quarterly adjusted earnings were $1.15 per share compared with $1.21 in the prior-year quarter. Investors were highly displeased with these results and send Verizon shares tumbling six percent on Monday. With a dividend yield above six percent, this company was poised for poison. With the share price in 2024 hovering between $38 and $42, the drop to $39.09 on Monday was close to the bottom end of the range. Once investors counting on the high dividend yield realize the company is a losing venture due to over-saturation and tapped-out phone users, a negative price spiral is likely. Verizon was trading for $30-31 per share prior to the start of the "rate cut" rally that began in late October, 2023. Tuesday morning saw results from General Motors (GM) and Coca-Cola (KO). General Motors delivered a smashing surprise, reporting adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of $4.4 billion, up 37% year-over-year. GM's adjusted EPS of $3.06 smashed year-ago comparisons of $1.91 and beat analyst expectations handily. For the first half of 2024, GM's net income of $5.9 billion was up 19% year over year on revenue of $90 billion, which was up 7%. For Coca-Cola (KO), net income fell to $2.41 billion, or 56 cents a share, from $2.55 billion, or 59 cents a share, in the same period a year ago. Excluding nonrecurring items, such as one-time transaction losses, adjusted earnings per share rose to 84 cents from 78 cents a year ago. Shares were higher by less than two percent in pre-market. The company also raised full year guidance, despite falling volumes in many drink categories, especially in the North American market. Results for Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG) and Tesla (TSLA) are due out after the close. Prior to the opening bell, futures are wavering around the flat line. Spot gold is at $2403.30, with spot silver fetching $28.95 per troy ounce.
At the Close, Monday, July 22, 2024:
Sunday, July 21, 2024, 11:54 am ET It's been a trying week for Americans in the aftermath of the attempted assassination of Donald J. Trump and carnage in tech stocks. Conditions are ripe for a complete political and financial circus leading up to the November elections. A little more than three months of hearings, accusations, recriminations, sloganeering, name-calling, finger-pointing and associated theatrics is probably more than the average American can withstand. And then, the elections, which may be even more farcical than those of 2020, take the country to... someplace. Who knows what the deep state and media propagandists have in store? For the most part, it appears that current VP, Kamala Harris, is going to be the Democrat party nominee. The media is already preparing the public, with accounts of her being on the job 24/7, and bypassing her as the replacement nominee a grievous error. Joe Biden is supposedly on his sixth round of Paxlovid, for whatever that's worth, his health failing at an increasingly dangerous pace. Despite his reluctance to step away, political forces are coalescing against him, he left desperate to hold onto power and defeat Donald Trump. The Democrat party convention is still a month away, so there's plenty of time to sort out the ticket. To that end, the Democrats appear close to self-immolation. With the current state of politics, is there any chance that stocks can regain the momentum lost over the past week or is the top already in place?
The NASDAQ took a severe beating this past week, its worst since mid-April. So too, the S&P, while the Dow managed a rare rally against its peers. The rally that's now past eight months long is expected to peter out at some point, but back in April, the response to the sudden downturn was another three-month rally that sent all the majors to fresh all-time highs. It's doubtful that will happen again. At best, stocks will run sideways as the wheels come off various narratives such as Ukraine, the Middle East, Biden's health, the viability of institutions like the IRS and DHS, and other, as yet unforeseen calamities waiting to happen. The week ahead will be dominated by earnings from some of the biggest names in corporate America, with the slant flavored with finance, MIC, and Dow components. On Monday, Verizon (VZ), SAP (SAP), Truist Financial (TFC), Zion Bancorp (ZION), Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) trot out second quarter earnings. Tuesday is loaded, with earnings reports from Alphabet (GOOG), Tesla (TSLA), Visa (V), Coca-Cola (KO), Texas Instruments (TXN), General Electric (GE), Comcast (CMCSA), UPS (UPS), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Capital One (COF), General Motors (GM), Chubb (CB), and Mattel (MAT). Wednesday: IBM (IBM), AT&T (T), Waste Management (WA), General Dynamics (GD), Chipolte (CMG), Ford (F), Ameriprise (AMP). Thursday: AztraZeneca (AZN), Honeywell (HON), Northrop Grumman (NOC). Friday: Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), 3M (MMM), Charter Communications (CHTR). On the data front, the first estimate of second quarter GDP precedes the opening bell on Thursday, along with June Durable Goods data. Both of these are highly anticipated as gauges for U.S. economic health. GDP is estimated to have been at stall speed in the second quarter, around 1.5-2.4%. The Federal Reserve's favorite inflation gauge - the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - will be released Friday prior to the open. Thus far, second quarter earnings have been underwhelming. Expect the usual amount of beats on lower expectations and the ongoing year-over-year comparisons looking dismal. Warnings and cautious outlooks will from corporate spokespersons will be troublesome for a market that appears ready for a correction.
At the extreme long end of the yield curve, 5s, 7s, and 10s are all dis-inverted to the 30s, with the customary "kink" at the 20-year bond. The sweet spot for borrowers is now in the 5-10 year range, which is likely where Janet Yellen, the sloppy genius old hag at Treasury, is placing her bets as interest on government debt exceeds every other single budget item save Social Security. Debt, and primarily government debt, has reached levels at which accidents not only happen, but are expected. The nearly $35 trillion in government debt alone is a gigantic, unsolvable problem. Household debt in mortgages on overpriced homes, corporate debt on commercial real estate, and borrowings by local governments are also untenable and likely to become disasters on their own. In light of unsustainable debt levels, the Fed continues to hint at lower rates, and, eventually, they will lower the federal funds target rate to somewhere around 3.5-4.0 percent, which would be enough to dis-invert the yield curve. It's at that point the reality of recession becomes all more probable. While everybody would like what's referenced as a "soft landing", the potential for "no landing" and continued dead economy is closer to reality. Politics has recently begun laying a bigger role, especially with prospects for a Trump presidency rising. His economic plan of increased tariffs and lower corporate taxes would provide a needed boost to the U.S. economy, but, it is likely to also create chaos as companies adjust to further on shoring of resources and citizens are blind-sided by a return to inflation on imported goods and services. Spreads on 2s-10s are flattening out, at their highest (less negative) in six months. Full spectrum spreads continue to provide plenty of leeway in terms of funding choices as recent extremes are being drawn back. If there's ever going to be normalization of the yield curve, it will be post-election and well into 2025. An end to the inverted yield curve, recession, and a stock and bond market rout are all overdue. Spreads:
2s-10s
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
WTI crude oil continued to fall, closing out Friday in New York at $78.60, down more than $2.00 from last week's closeout of $80.97, thanks to a deep dive on Friday. Summer travel and the recent heat wave being the main catalysts, those two components of oil pricing are seen to be easing, thus, the price of crude is on the wane, a welcome sight for weary workers and vacationers. Pumping oil and gas are at extremely strong levels. The only thing keeping WTI at the current levels is speculation over Middle East turmoil and the unexpected from the Biden White House, capable of all manner of nastiness. Gasbuddy.com reports the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.46 a gallon, down four cents on the week, but still within the recent range. Prices at the pump are easing in many parts of the country. California remains #1 in the U.S. at $4.61 a gallon, the lowest price in more than six months. Prices eased in Pennsylvania by four cents, to $3.64, the Keystone state remaining the price leader in the Northeast. New York is close by at $3.59, followed by Connecticut ($3.57) and Maryland ($3.49), all down on the week. Prices were up another six cents in Illinois, with a gallon at $3.90. No rest in the Midwest. Mississippi continued with the lowest prices in the country, back down again this week to $2.95, and the only state in the U.S. under $3.00, though that could soon change. Louisiana checks in at $3.03, Texas and Oklahoma at $3.04. The remaining Southeast states range from $3.10 (Tennessee) to $3.15 (South Carolina, down sharply). Even Georgia ($3.32), and Florida ($3.34) saw sharp price reductions, Florida down 16 cents on the week. The Midwest ranges between lows in South Dakota ($3.16) and Kansas ($3.17), to highs of $3.67 in Michigan and Indiana, most in a range between $3.28 and $3.40. Missouri is up, at $3.24; Ohio, up 18 cents, at $3.48 (J.D. Vance backlash?). Arizona dropped another four cents and remained below $4.00 for an 11th straight week ($3.44), leaving only California and Washington ($4.18) above the $4.00 level. Oregon was seen at $3.90 and Nevada at $3.88, both down sharply. Utah was stable ($3.51) along with Idaho ($3.56), both on a slow, steady decline in price.
This week: $67,359.10 While everything else was down for the week, bitcoin magically rallied. P.T. Barnum was right. There's a sucker born every minute. Apparently, most of them are Americans with money to throw around.
Gold:Silver Ratio: 81.70; last week: 77.75 Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 6/21: $2,334.70
Silver price 6/21: $29.90 Gold and silver were beaten down late in the week, but not before gold hit a record high. Nothing on the COMEX is believable at any point. It has been exposed for the rigging operation that it is, suppressing gold and silver prices at the behest of the U.S. Federal Reserve, central bank counterfeiters. Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell substantially over the course of the week, to $39.76, dropping $1.79 from the July 14th price of $41.55 per troy ounce. The fall in silver prices on ebay and at dealers was to be expected, given that the COMEX wheeler-dealers had slashed the trading price by $2.18, from $31.59 to the closing price of $29.41, and gold from an all-time high of $2,487.70 down to $2,402.80. Gold held up better, though it's essential to note that bars and coins carried roughly the same premium. One ounce coins were in short supply on ebay, though not at dealers. Still, buyers were indiscriminate. Whether in the form of a round, coin, or bar, as long as it was a troy ounce and .999 or .9999 pure, buyers were willing to step up and pay more than $100 over spot. Judging by buying interest, the indication is that COMEX is now seen as little more than a worrisome impediment to true price discovery, the U.S. dollar reserve currency much like an unwelcome house guest outstaying his or her welcome. The house of cards is crumbling. Only vain attempts by mainstream media and government operatives is keeping the veneer of respectability intact for the dollar and other fiat currencies. Even with the week's deflating prices - largely a matter of forced liquidation - precious metals adherents are not in the least turned away. If the stock market continues to crater as it did the past week, expect further declines in gold and silver, setting up yet another prime buying opportunity for true believers.
Institutions are crumbling. Faith in the U.S. dollar and government guarantees are dissolving into a cesspool of corruption and failed governance. All of the narratives presented by media and financial experts are false, and imploding apace. While the eventual demise of the U.S. as a world power may be somewhat delayed by a Trump presidency, it bears notice that the deep state will not go quietly. After one attempt on Trump's life, what's to say there will not be further actions taken against him, even if he wins in November? These are perilous days for freedom and self-determination. Resilience and resourcefulness will be precious commodities in the days, weeks, months, and years ahead.
At the Close, Friday, July 19, 2024:
For the Week:
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