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Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.
PRIOR COVERAGE:
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Friday, July 11, 2025, 9:07 am ET President Trump's announcement Wednesday of 50% tariffs on Brazil, ostensibly in protest over the South American country's criminal trial against its former president, Jair Bolsonaro, has been met with skepticism in the U.S. and revulsion in Brazil. Current president Lula da Silva said Thursday that he would impose retaliatory tariffs on the United States if President Trump follows through on a pledge to boost import taxes by 50% on August 1st. Bolsonaro's trial is based on charges he attempted to interfere with the 2022 election, won by da Silva, though, just as in the U.S. during the 2020 elections, many observers considered the result rigged, as Bolsonaro had been leading da Silva in most polls. Whatever the truth behind election irregularities over the past decade happens to be, Trump's use of tariffs to "punish" Brazil make little sense from an economic perspective. First, the United States actually runs a trade surplus with Brazil, so tacking on tariffs would amount to undermining one of the few trade relationships that favors America. Second, 50% tariffs are prima facia unreasonable, amounting to sanction-level punishment, a favorite tactic of the U.S. geared more towards political aims than evening the trade playing field. Trump's recent flurry of tariff threats make him - and, by extension, the United States - look like a bully, using hard-line tactics to put trading partners at significant disadvantages. Between broken promises on Ukraine, the Epstein matter, balancing the budget, and other matters, Trump's base support is being severely eroded, endangering the Republican party in next year's midterm elections. Beyond the political implications, the economic realities appear to be headed very much in the wrong direction. Whichever way economists want to twist the math on tariffs, goods coming into the United States become either more expensive, of inferior quality, or the profit margins of exporting companies get squeezed if they decide to "eat" the import duties. The effects are overall inflationary, coming at a time in which the average consumer is being stretched by higher prices on just about everything. The Fed and government number crunchers continue to insist that inflation is coming down, but regular people just aren't buying their narrative. The other alternative is empty shelves, if enough countries determine that doing business with the United States isn't worth the effort. Beef prices, in particular, are through the roof and largely unaffordable for most families. Tacking on extra charges to Brazilian imports - a good portion of it food, and, especially, beef - makes little sense from an "America First" perspective. It has a better chance of being more destructive than productive. Standing back for a "big picture" perspective, everything Trump has proposed or accomplished over the past few months seems designed to harm America rather than help it. There aren't many people worldwide that he hasn't pissed off of late. The forever wars appear to be back on the table. Government spending will continue to overrun revenue via his big, beautiful bill. The Middle East is far from being settled. Trump continues to attack Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, calling for lower interest rates, a purely inflationary suggestion. The dollar is weaker, and, while it does make American exports more competitive, it makes imports more expensive. By shutting down the Epstein investigation without anyone being charged with anything, Trump's message to his base was clear. He doesn't care to keep campaign promises. After all, he can't run for president again. He's a lame duck already. MAGA loyalists can GF themselves. It's almost as if the government, now firmly back in the grip of the neocon deep state, wants the American people angry, tired, hungry, drugged, broke, and on the verge of rebellion. Those in charge - now including Trump - seem to want either runaway inflation, a depression, a civil war, or revolution, or a combination of all in order to impose martial law and put everybody under the jackboot of corporatism. Just a thought. In any case, the U.S. stock market seems to like most of what's being fed them, at least until today. The NASDAQ and S&P made new highs on Thursday, and the Dow continues to hover near record territory. Stocks weren't the only things being bought on Thursday. Bitcoin traded at a record-high price and this morning surpassed $118,000. Gold was only marginally higher, but is up nearly $40 Friday morning, at $3,365. Silver has screamed higher, breaking through $37 on Thursday and trading as high as $38.60 Friday morning, prices not seen since 2011. Stock futures are lower across the board. Whether that plays out in the cash market to close out the week remains to be seen, but there certainly is more than ample stress in financial markets for something not to break soon.
At the Close, Thursday, July 10, 2025:
Thursday, July 10, 2025, 10:48 am ET As Money Daily transitions to a greater level of coverage of markets outside the Western sphere of influence, it's still a good idea to keep tabs on the floundering, mismanaged economies in the U.S. and Europe. One area in which the West is stumbling and fumbling is in military readiness, as evidenced by their abject failure in Ukraine. Coverage begins with the story from Bloomberg over the weekend on BlackRock's cancellation of their highly-touted Ukraine Recovery Fund. Make note of the time and date of the article, posted innocuously at 3:00 am on Saturday, in the middle of a three-day U.S. holiday weekend. Obviously, Bloomberg didn't want to embarrass its sponsor, BlackRock or its meritorious leader, the obnoxious - and aptly named - Larry Fink. This is done ZeroHedge, style, i.e., cribbing the entire article.
BlackRock Halted Ukraine Fund Talks After Trump's Election Win What a joke. It took eight people to put together this 200-word story. Overpaid. Next up, a snippet from Simplicius over at Substack. SITREP 7/8/25: Trump Flips on Ammo (Again?), as Russian Steamroller Bursts into Zaporozhye Simplicius / Jul 08, 2025
This week brings us news that Trump has reversed on his weapons aid suspension to Ukraine‹but is there more to this than meet's the eye? Finally, here's Alex Cristoforou and Alexander Mercouris discussing - and laughing at - the disastrous policies of the U.S., UK, and EU, as their leaders "fail forward."
Good luck, Western dogs.
Wednesday, July 9, 2025, 11:50 am ET
Since the fateful "liberation day" fiasco upon which President Trump announced punishing tariffs on countries around the world, sending the stock market reeling into bear market territory, many Americans who supported and voted for the president have been abandoning him in large numbers, but Monday's announcement by the Department of Justice, in collaboration with the FBI, that the Jeffrey Epstein investigation was closed with no evidence of a large-scale blackmailing operation or a client list, and, concluding that Epstein committed suicide, appears to have been the last straw. Because of the unsigned statement issued by the DoJ, and the embarrassing follow-up denial by Trump and Attorney General Pam Bondi featured in the clip below, supporters of the president and the MAGA movement are abandoning this administration in droves.
Notably, the question, Trump's quizzical response, and, especially, Pam Bondi's detailed, unprompted response concerning her prior statements, the missing minute from the prison tapes, and the allegation of "child porn downloaded by that disgusting Jeffrey Epstein" appear to have been completely pre-rehearsed and scripted. Furor over the failed - and likely covered-up - investigation into Epstein's affairs is growing and likely to tear the country further apart, though further downside for the government comes in the form of former MAGA loyalists now siding with far-left Trump-haters who have derided the administration's policies from day one. Tech billionaire Elon Musk, the former Trump adviser, posted Tuesday on his X platform, "How can people be expected to have faith in Trump if he won't release the Epstein files?" Burying of the Epstein files and video tapes, which likely implicate many members of congress, former president Bill Clinton and possibly President Trump himself, along with other high-ranking politicians, judges, Hollywood movie stars, producers, and tech billionaires (Bill Gates), are almost certain to prove the undoing of Trump, his administration, the whole of government, and the social contract with the American people. It is the touchstone - the black swan - which could trigger mayhem and violence, some almost certain to be the product of deep state operatives and false flags. Shading of the truth, denial to come clean with the American public on matters of extreme importance - many of which the president campaigned on - will prove to be the undoing of the American experience, sadly, on the cusp of the country's 250th anniversary. America will be lucky to avoid civil war. The Epstein matter isn't the only fumble by the administration. After month's of tireless work by Elon Musk and his DOGE team to uncover waste, fraud, and abuse in government, nearly none of it was codified by congress in their "big, beautiful bill", the continuing resolution passed recently and signed by Trump on July 4. The bill itself is chock full of pork, over-spending, higher deficits, and perks for billionaires and congress, when the president and members of congress - mostly Republicans - had promised to reduce government and begin a process to balance the budget. Really can't blame all Democrats for voting against it, albeit for all the wrong reasons. Both parties - now essentially a uniparty - are equally corrupt and complicit in crimes against the American people and humanity in general. While Trump has effectively closed the U.S. southern border, deportations have been slow to materialize. It's largely being suggested by political junkies on the left and the right, that most of the estimated 30-40 million illegals still residing in the United States will be offered amnesty and a path to citizenship rather than rightfully being sent back to their countries of origin. Other failures by President Trump include not halting arms and financial aid to Ukraine, which would have ended the war immediately as he promised during the campaign. Further support for Israel in its genocide in Gaza and endless warring against Iran and most of the Arab world is a sore point for almost everybody, from leftists to pacifists, to former right-wing supporters. Trump's tariff back-and-forth posturing is cause for alarm. His recent post on Truth Social of imposing an additional 10 percent tariff on BRICS nations or those aligned with their (in Trump's words) "anti-American" policies, was a backhand to countries representing more than 60% of world commerce. Rather than any attempt at conciliation with the rest of the world, Trump, congress, and their supporters are continuing with sanctions, tariffs, and other forms of punishment that will only serve to alienate the United States further. President Trump has made no mention of giving back the money stolen from Russia at the onset of the Ukraine conflict in 2022. There is still roughly $300 to $400 billion in Russian assets frozen by the U.S., UK, and EU, that should rightfully be returned. There's no investigation into the affairs of the Bidens, nor into any of the countless numbers of congresspeople and senators who made trips to Ukraine and received $$$ millions in kickbacks and bribes. There's been no audit of how the money and arms sent to Ukraine were dispersed. The list of failures, mostly of doing nothing in the face of obvious corruption at the highest levels of government and business, grows longer and longer with each passing day. As far as Wall Street is concerned, the party rages on no matter the circumstance. When Wall Street bankers plead for a poor employment report so that the Federal Reserve will have reason to cut interest rates and the BLS non-farm payroll is revealed as positive, that serves as cause for celebration and a continuance of the rally. It doesn't take a stock market genius to observe patterns of fraud in stocks and manipulation of the bond markets. How many times do the S&P and NASDAQ have to finish close to unchanged before people realize the depth of corruption and rigging in U.S. markets by the rich and powerful? Vanguard and BlackRock own most of the shares of stock in the most important companies. They can move markets in whichever way they please. The rest of the world looks upon the United States with a growing sense of tragedy. Europe, for what it's worth, is already finished, their formerly homogenous populations now polluted with migrants from the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and other foreign locales, the immigrants given free reign over the native populations in countries ranging from Sweden, to France, to Germany, Spain, and beyond. Great Britain is no longer great, or even British. They're completely finished as a country and a government. When people lose faith in institutions of the government, the ability to govern is severely impaired, eventually to a point at which the general population becomes ungovernable. Given rates of inflation, the continued debasement of the nearly-worthless U.S. dollar, now amplified by backward-thinking trade policies that will only exacerbate the situation, the average consumer is squeezed, not only by higher prices, but higher taxes at the state and local levels, more extreme government regulations and denial of basic rights of free speech, assembly, and importantly, a free, critical press. America is very far a breaking point. From all indications, America is circling the drain of failed empires like many before it. The country is no longer capable of projecting military power. China and Russia have exceeded the U.S. capacity both in terms of quantity and quality. U.S. posturing as a military force with which to be reckoned is at best a bluffing tactic. Rather than seek peace - as Trump promised - the decades old practice of bombing opponents into submission is now the preferred tactic. Standards of living in the United States continue to decline. The wealth gap continues to grow. Arrogance and hubris by the federal government is unceasing. All of these things, and more, point in only one direction. 249 years. It was a good run, America. But now, it's over. Henceforth, Money Daily will strive to focus on the economies of the rest of the world, especially BRICS and the Global South, where cooperation and inclusion are fostered and economies are growing as they move away from dollar hegemony. The U.S. and its Western allies are failed states, grasping at economic and political straws like drowning people. Asia, Africa, South America and the Middle East are bustling with activity, growth, cooperation, and prosperity. Regards, Fearless Rick
At the Close, Tuesday, July 8, 2025:
Investigators, after months of tireless sleuthing and sifting through more than 500 gigabytes of data and volumes of documents, found that infamous pedophile and human-trafficker Jeffrey Epstein maintained no client list and definitely committed suicide while awaiting trial in a New York City prison. Therefore, there will be no further investigation, no charges brought against sitting or former politicians, judges, or other famous people and the case is closed, the files flushed down the rabbit hole. This is the same FBI and Department of Justice which must months ago promised transparency and honesty in its dealing with the American public. Allegedly, Americans are supposed to believe in the existence of unicorns, leprechauns, the Easter Bunny, tooth fairy, and that JFK was killed by Cubans, Elvis Presley is still alive, two planes took down the Twin Towers in New York and another 47-story building on 9/11/2001, and that U.S. astronauts walked on the moon in 1969. Every day it becomes more and more difficult to keep faith in Ameircan institutions and the people running the government in Washington, D.C. Levels of propaganda and gas-lighting have never been as high as under the current regime. With another major scandal now discarded and swept under the rug, the uniparty, ensconced neatly in the District of Columbia that rules over the great expanse of the United States, has free reign over the governments finances and operations, including raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion and other provisions in the big, beautiful continuing resolution passed by both houses of congress and signed into law by Presiident Trump on July 4. The grifting and draining of the U.S. Treasury shall continue, non-stop. Early Monday morning, President Trump announced that letters were being sent to heads of state of various countries with which the U.S. does business. Some of the proposed tariffs, set to take affect on August 1, are of 25% on Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, Tunisia, South Africa (30%), Laos (40%), Myanmar (40%), Bosnia and Herzegovina (30%), Indonesia (32%), Bangladesh (35%), Serbia (35%), Cambodia (36%), and Thailand (36%). Trump also took aim at the BRICS, the organization wrapping up its annual summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Monday. Posting on his social media platform, Truth Social, the president sent out the following:
"Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff There will be no exceptions to this policy. Thank you for your attention to this matter." While the administration was busy alienating 60% of the global economies, Wall Street was even busier, selling stocks with heightened alarm. There's more detail on the Money Page of the July issue of idleguy.com. Approaching Tuesday's opening bell, stock futures are mixed with Dow futures down around 58 points, S&P futures up 5, and NASDAQ futures ahead by 50. Gold was smacked down Monday, but recovered throughout to day to finish positively. as of this writing, gold is trading at $3,338.00 on the COMEX with silver tickling $37 ($36.95) where all the short stops are located. Enjoy the chains.
At the Close, Monday, July 7, 2025:
Owing to the brevity of the pre-4th week (3 1/2 sessions), comments will be limited this week. The Shiiller PE closed out on July 3rd at 38.31, just 0.37 from the second-highest reading ever, 38.58, from October 2021, in the aftermath of the plandemic. Given the current momentum, it would surprise exactly nobody if it exceeded that level within weeks, if not days. Thus, to say that stocks are overvalued would be an extreme understatement. Some of it is because of the dollar's recent decline, from a high on the Dollar Index of 109.96 on January 13, to the current 96.99, a drop of 11.80% in just six months - that's huge in terms of the world's reserve currency. Alternately, the other reserves in central bank coffers - euros and gold - are both appreciating. Gains in the stock market are proxies for the debasement of the backing currency. All said and done, equity investors are still losing. The Dow is up 5.37%; NASDAQ, up 6.68%; S&P, up 6.76% year-to-date, so, more dip-buying, adding to winning positions, and staking out speculative positions within the framework of buybacks and a declining dollar remains the near term outlook. Signed by President Trump on Independence Day, passage of the big, beautiful continuing resolution assures inflation will remain unleashed until something breaks, ostensibly, that being the U.S. consumer.
Higher. Longer. On the shortened week which ended with a half session Thursday the Dow closed within spitting distance of its all-time high (45,014.04, Dec. 4, 2024). There is a nearly 100% certainty that it will exceed that number in the week ahead. The Dow and other majors put in reasonable gains for the week, though the best performance was on the Transportation Average, up 3.56%. The week ahead will feature a few early second quarter earnings reports, the most impactful possibly being Delta Airlines (DAL) which will be releasing on Thursday before the opening bell. Also that morning, Helen of Troy (HELE) and agricultural giant Conagra (CAG) report. After the close on Thursday, WD-40 (WDFC) and Levi's (LEVI) release. There won't be much to ponder on the data front, with the week ahead focused on two somewhat parallel events: the BRICS Summit in Brasil Monday and Tuesday (July 5, 6) and the expiration of the 90-day grace period on Trump's tariffs on Wednesday, the 7th. What develops in both scenarios will likely go a long way towards determining the future of international trade and finance.
Date 1 Mo 1.5 mo 2 Mo 3 Mo 4 Mo 6 Mo 1 Yr
Date 2 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 7 Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 30 Yr Yields were elevated at the low end of the curve through the middle, tapering with the longer maturities (10-year note, +6 basis points; 30-year bond, +1 basis point). The indication is higher rates at the low end, especially after the June non-farm payroll report exceeded estimates, with 147,000 new jobs gained during the month. The effect of the solid jobs data pushed 1-month yields to their highest in more than a month, suggesting that the Fed will be unable to justify any cut to the federal funds rate at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting. Spreads were spanked down, with 2s-10s dropped nine basis points to +47 and full spectrum at +51, both down substantially, which, as opposed to the most recent condition, is optimistic. There is a growing perception in fixed income markets that some stability and possible agreement between the fiscal and monetary sides of the U.S. economy may be emergent. The combination of passage of the latest continuing resolution (the big, beautiful one) and Thursday's positive jobs report favors expansion and a backing off from near-crisis conditions in the banking sector. Spreads:
2s-10s
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years) Oil/Gas Edward Dowd of Phinance Technologies believes WTI crude could go as low as $30/barrel within the context of a deep recession in the near to medium term (6-12 months), which he also believes is of high probability. Whether or not Mr. Dowd is eventually proven correct over time, WTI crude oil closed out the week at $65.15, just pennies ahead of last week's (6/27) close of $65.07 and a far cry from the $74.04 two weeks past (6/20). Price erosion is possible depending on global affairs and the stability of various developed economies. No doubt, the temporary peace between Israel and Iran will contribute to keeping oil prices deflated. Gas prices have followed oil's path. Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.11, a six-cent drop from last week, and that over a busy three-day weekend. The highest prices in the country remained in California, at $4.54, down three cents on the week. Prices at the traditional low end are dropping quickly, led by Oklahoma ($2.64), Texas ($2.66) and Mississippi ($2.67). Other states in the Southeast were also down over the course of the week. Tennessee ($2.72), Louisiana and South Carolina ($2.73), Alabama and Arkansas ($2.74) are all down by at least five cents from last week. Georgia dropped from $2.91 to $2.87, though Florida punched back up to $3.06. North Carolina dropped nine cents to $2.83. The Northeast is still led on the high side by Pennsylvania ($3.31), down seven cents. All other New England and East coast states remained above $3,00, though New Hampshire and Rhode Island came in at $3.01. Maryland follows Pennsylvania on the high side, at $3.18. Midwest states are topped by Illinois ($3.41), though the price is down seven cents. Kentucky ($2.82) is the lowest in the region, followed by Ohio ($2.84), Missouri ($2.87), Kansas ($2.88) Nebraska and North Dakota ($2.89), leaving just Illinois, Indiana ($3.11), and Michigan ($3.12) above $3.00. Along with California, Washington ($4.40) are the only ones above $4, as Oregon checks in at an even $4.00. Nevada ($3.72) dropped three cents. Arizona ($3.21) is still priced at a premium to neighboring New Mexico, a relative bargain, at $2.81. Idaho ($3.39), and Utah ($3.27) each saw prices drop. Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in two more states this week than last, with now 22 making the grade. If the Middle East situation remains relatively peaceful and there's no significant turmoil from BRICS or the end of Trump's 90-day tariff grace period, prices should continue to come down through summer into fall.
This week: $108,808.00 All of crypto is a massive fraud. With the U.S. and Europe (Western powers) increasingly leaning toward crypto assets like stablecoins and CBDCs, people around the world may soon be faced with a currency crisis in which they will be largely forced to choose between crypto and gold-backed currencies. Ought to be a no-brainer, but, the world being led largely by sociopaths who push their narratives through a highly-propagandized media, the choices will be presented as difficult.
Gold:Silver Ratio: 90.13; last week: 90.85 Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 6/6: $3,331.00
Silver price 6/6: $36.13 Silver's close above $37/ounce was the first since late 2011, and, at that time, the price was going down. This time actually IS different. The Financial Times reports that China has made at least 10 mining acquisitions in 2024, underpinning the country's need for raw materials, in addition to its voracious appetite for gold and silver. China has been actively seeking foreign partnerships for a chain of gold vaults throughout the Global South. Details of this ongoing development can be found on the money page of the July issue of idleguy.com, along with additional speculation over the developing multi-polar economic storm. It's becoming quite clear that gold will play a role in the future of global finance and economics. July 1 marked the adoption of gold as a Tier 1 Asset for American banks, which have shifted their positions in favor of precious metals after decades of being willing participants in various gold suppression schemes, especially on the COMEX and through mechanisms such as the U.S. Exchange Stabilization Fund. As U.S. hegemony continues to wane, true money - gold - is replacing U.S. Treasury bills, notes, and bonds as the preferred reserve asset at most central banks. The era of price suppression is coming to an abrupt end. The gold price may appreciate at a more rapid pace shortly, though that is still largely dependent on geo-politics and the intentions of the global banking cartel. A severe clash between the West and BRICS-aligned nations could result in an expansion of the developing economic war into a kinetic, military confrontation. Cooler heads may eventually prevail. Insight can be gained from developments in the Middle East and Ukraine. If those conflicts are soon resolved, there is a chance that President Trump's wish to be remembered as a "peace president" may be fulfilled. Naturally, resistance will come from neocons and the MIC in Europe and the United States. The main question regarding global politics may come down to a "Who's the Boss?" condition between militants and economists, mostly of the Austrian kind. Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
Item/Price Low High Average Median The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell marginally this week, to $43.56, a decline of 14 cents from the June 29 price of $43.70 per troy ounce. WEEKEND WRAP Well, next year will make the grand 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States of America. While it is likely to be a stick image of what the original Fouding Fathers had envisioned, there's still a very good chance that it will still rank as one of the more prosperous and free countries in the world. We shall see.
At the Close, Thursday, July 3, 2025:
For the Week:
Tuesday, July 8, 2025, 9:20 am ET With the 90-day negotiation window closing on President Trump's threatened tariffs on most of America's trading partners and news of letters going out to various countries, including South Korea and Japan, taking the lion's share of headlines, the administration figured it was the perfect time to close the Epstein case, trotting out representatives from the FBI and Justice Department early Monday morning. Investigators, after months of tireless sleuthing and sifting through more than 500 gigabytes of data and volumes of documents, found that infamous pedophile and human-trafficker Jeffrey Epstein maintained no client list and definitely committed suicide while awaiting trial in a New York City prison. Therefore, there will be no further investigation, no charges brought against sitting or former politicians, judges, or other famous people and the case is closed, the files flushed down the rabbit hole. This is the same FBI and Department of Justice which must months ago promised transparency and honesty in its dealing with the American public. Allegedly, Americans are supposed to believe in the existence of unicorns, leprechauns, the Easter Bunny, tooth fairy, and that JFK was killed by Cubans, Elvis Presley is still alive, two planes took down the Twin Towers in New York and another 47-story building on 9/11/2001, and that U.S. astronauts walked on the moon in 1969.
Every day it becomes more and more difficult to keep faith in Ameircan institutions and the people running the government in Washington, D.C. Levels of propaganda and gas-lighting have never been as high as under the current regime. With another major scandal now discarded and swept under the rug, the uniparty, ensconced neatly in the District of Columbia that rules over the great expanse of the United States, has free reign over the governments finances and operations, including raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion and other provisions in the big, beautiful continuing resolution passed by both houses of congress and signed into law by Presiident Trump on July 4. The grifting and draining of the U.S. Treasury shall continue, non-stop. Early Monday morning, President Trump announced that letters were being sent to heads of state of various countries with which the U.S. does business. Some of the proposed tariffs, set to take affect on August 1, are of 25% on Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, Tunisia, South Africa (30%), Laos (40%), Myanmar (40%), Bosnia and Herzegovina (30%), Indonesia (32%), Bangladesh (35%), Serbia (35%), Cambodia (36%), and Thailand (36%). Trump also took aim at the BRICS, the organization wrapping up its annual summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Monday. Posting on his social media platform, Truth Social, the president sent out the following:
"Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff There will be no exceptions to this policy. Thank you for your attention to this matter." While the administration was busy alienating 60% of the global economies, Wall Street was even busier, selling stocks with heightened alarm. There's more detail on the Money Page of the July issue of idleguy.com. Approaching Tuesday's opening bell, stock futures are mixed with Dow futures down around 58 points, S&P futures up 5, and NASDAQ futures ahead by 50. Gold was smacked down Monday, but recovered throughout to day to finish positively. as of this writing, gold is trading at $3,338.00 on the COMEX with silver tickling $37 ($36.95) where all the short stops are located. Enjoy the chains.
At the Close, Monday, July 7, 2025:
Sunday, July 6, 2025, 12:57 pm ET The Shiiller PE closed out on July 3rd at 38.31, just 0.37 from the second-highest reading ever, 38.58, from October 2021, in the aftermath of the plandemic. Given the current momentum, it would surprise exactly nobody if it exceeded that level within weeks, if not days. Thus, to say that stocks are overvalued would be an extreme understatement. Some of it is because of the dollar's recent decline, from a high on the Dollar Index of 109.96 on January 13, to the current 96.99, a drop of 11.80% in just six months - that's huge in terms of the world's reserve currency. Alternately, the other reserves in central bank coffers - euros and gold - are both appreciating. Gains in the stock market are proxies for the debasement of the backing currency. All said and done, equity investors are still losing. The Dow is up 5.37%; NASDAQ, up 6.68%; S&P, up 6.76% year-to-date, so, more dip-buying, adding to winning positions, and staking out speculative positions within the framework of buybacks and a declining dollar remains the near term outlook. Signed by President Trump on Independence Day, passage of the big, beautiful continuing resolution assures inflation will remain unleashed until something breaks, ostensibly, that being the U.S. consumer.
Higher. Longer. On the shortened week which ended with a half session Thursday the Dow closed within spitting distance of its all-time high (45,014.04, Dec. 4, 2024). There is a nearly 100% certainty that it will exceed that number in the week ahead. The Dow and other majors put in reasonable gains for the week, though the best performance was on the Transportation Average, up 3.56%. The week ahead will feature a few early second quarter earnings reports, the most impactful possibly being Delta Airlines (DAL) which will be releasing on Thursday before the opening bell. Also that morning, Helen of Troy (HELE) and agricultural giant Conagra (CAG) report. After the close on Thursday, WD-40 (WDFC) and Levi's (LEVI) release. There won't be much to ponder on the data front, with the week ahead focused on two somewhat parallel events: the BRICS Summit in Brasil Monday and Tuesday (July 5, 6) and the expiration of the 90-day grace period on Trump's tariffs on Wednesday, the 7th. What develops in both scenarios will likely go a long way towards determining the future of international trade and finance.
Yields were elevated at the low end of the curve through the middle, tapering with the longer maturities (10-year note, +6 basis points; 30-year bond, +1 basis point). The indication is higher rates at the low end, especially after the June non-farm payroll report exceeded estimates, with 147,000 new jobs gained during the month. The effect of the solid jobs data pushed 1-month yields to their highest in more than a month, suggesting that the Fed will be unable to justify any cut to the federal funds rate at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting. Spreads were spanked down, with 2s-10s dropped nine basis points to +47 and full spectrum at +51, both down substantially, which, as opposed to the most recent condition, is optimistic. There is a growing perception in fixed income markets that some stability and possible agreement between the fiscal and monetary sides of the U.S. economy may be emergent. The combination of passage of the latest continuing resolution (the big, beautiful one) and Thursday's positive jobs report favors expansion and a backing off from near-crisis conditions in the banking sector. Spreads:
2s-10s
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years) Oil/Gas Edward Dowd of Phinance Technologies believes WTI crude could go as low as $30/barrel within the context of a deep recession in the near to medium term (6-12 months), which he also believes is of high probability. Whether or not Mr. Dowd is eventually proven correct over time, WTI crude oil closed out the week at $65.15, just pennies ahead of last week's (6/27) close of $65.07 and a far cry from the $74.04 two weeks past (6/20). Price erosion is possible depending on global affairs and the stability of various developed economies. No doubt, the temporary peace between Israel and Iran will contribute to keeping oil prices deflated. Gas prices have followed oil's path. Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.11, a six-cent drop from last week, and that over a busy three-day weekend. The highest prices in the country remained in California, at $4.54, down three cents on the week. Prices at the traditional low end are dropping quickly, led by Oklahoma ($2.64), Texas ($2.66) and Mississippi ($2.67). Other states in the Southeast were also down over the course of the week. Tennessee ($2.72), Louisiana and South Carolina ($2.73), Alabama and Arkansas ($2.74) are all down by at least five cents from last week. Georgia dropped from $2.91 to $2.87, though Florida punched back up to $3.06. North Carolina dropped nine cents to $2.83. The Northeast is still led on the high side by Pennsylvania ($3.31), down seven cents. All other New England and East coast states remained above $3,00, though New Hampshire and Rhode Island came in at $3.01. Maryland follows Pennsylvania on the high side, at $3.18. Midwest states are topped by Illinois ($3.41), though the price is down seven cents. Kentucky ($2.82) is the lowest in the region, followed by Ohio ($2.84), Missouri ($2.87), Kansas ($2.88) Nebraska and North Dakota ($2.89), leaving just Illinois, Indiana ($3.11), and Michigan ($3.12) above $3.00. Along with California, Washington ($4.40) are the only ones above $4, as Oregon checks in at an even $4.00. Nevada ($3.72) dropped three cents. Arizona ($3.21) is still priced at a premium to neighboring New Mexico, a relative bargain, at $2.81. Idaho ($3.39), and Utah ($3.27) each saw prices drop. Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in two more states this week than last, with now 22 making the grade. If the Middle East situation remains relatively peaceful and there's no significant turmoil from BRICS or the end of Trump's 90-day tariff grace period, prices should continue to come down through summer into fall.
This week: $108,808.00 All of crypto is a massive fraud. With the U.S. and Europe (Western powers) increasingly leaning toward crypto assets like stablecoins and CBDCs, people around the world may soon be faced with a currency crisis in which they will be largely forced to choose between crypto and gold-backed currencies. Ought to be a no-brainer, but, the world being led largely by sociopaths who push their narratives through a highly-propagandized media, the choices will be presented as difficult.
Gold:Silver Ratio: 90.13; last week: 90.85 Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 6/6: $3,331.00
Silver price 6/6: $36.13 Silver's close above $37/ounce was the first since late 2011, and, at that time, the price was going down. This time actually IS different. The Financial Times reports that China has made at least 10 mining acquisitions in 2024, underpinning the country's need for raw materials, in addition to its voracious appetite for gold and silver. China has been actively seeking foreign partnerships for a chain of gold vaults throughout the Global South. Details of this ongoing development can be found on the money page of the July issue of idleguy.com, along with additional speculation over the developing multi-polar economic storm. It's becoming quite clear that gold will play a role in the future of global finance and economics. July 1 marked the adoption of gold as a Tier 1 Asset for American banks, which have shifted their positions in favor of precious metals after decades of being willing participants in various gold suppression schemes, especially on the COMEX and through mechanisms such as the U.S. Exchange Stabilization Fund. As U.S. hegemony continues to wane, true money - gold - is replacing U.S. Treasury bills, notes, and bonds as the preferred reserve asset at most central banks. The era of price suppression is coming to an abrupt end. The gold price may appreciate at a more rapid pace shortly, though that is still largely dependent on geo-politics and the intentions of the global banking cartel. A severe clash between the West and BRICS-aligned nations could result in an expansion of the developing economic war into a kinetic, military confrontation. Cooler heads may eventually prevail. Insight can be gained from developments in the Middle East and Ukraine. If those conflicts are soon resolved, there is a chance that President Trump's wish to be remembered as a "peace president" may be fulfilled. Naturally, resistance will come from neocons and the MIC in Europe and the United States. The main question regarding global politics may come down to a "Who's the Boss?" condition between militants and economists, mostly of the Austrian kind. Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell marginally this week, to $43.56, a decline of 14 cents from the June 29 price of $43.70 per troy ounce. WEEKEND WRAP Well, next year will make the grand 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States of America. While it is likely to be a stick image of what the original Fouding Fathers had envisioned, there's still a very good chance that it will still rank as one of the more prosperous and free countries in the world. We shall see.
At the Close, Thursday, July 3, 2025:
For the Week:
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Following four years of absolute chaos and disgrace on the world stage, a large segment of the American public thought they were voting for change and salvation in electing Donald J. Trump as the 47th president of the country, and, in the beginning of his term, starting with DOGE and expulsion of illegal immigrants, it appeared that possibly, America could get back on a positive track.
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