 | MONEY DAILY | Commentary on Stocks - Bonds - Gold - Silver - Crypto - Oil/Gas and more |
| HOME | PRICE GUIDE | STORE | BLOGS | SPORTS | BUSINESS | WILD SIDE | CONTACT | ARCHIVES |
Weekly Survey of Gold and Silver Prices
Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark
Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.
PRIOR COVERAGE:
|
Thursday, August 21, 2025, 9:25 am ET While much attention has been paid to the recent swoon in tech stocks, with the NASDAQ down four of the past five sessions, losing sharply Tuesday and Wednesday, it would be easy to miss another market phenomenon occurring over the same period, that being the flat-lining of the Dow Industrials, which have closed fractionally higher and lower around a nexus at 44,922.27 for the past six sessions, actually closing at that exact price on both August 13 and August 19. What has kept the Dow within a tight range could be any number of variables, though the most likely appears to be overhead resistance at the all-time high of 45,014.04. The index has exceeded that number on an intraday basis, but has consistently retreated from it, as if Adam Smith's "invisible hand" of market dynamics has exerted control over billions of shares of stocks represented by the index. Perhaps the NASDAQ is a more telling manifestation of general market exhaustion, but the Dow Industrials failing to make new highs, even as the NASDAQ and S&P have crossed into fresh territory numerous times this year, is one that bears watching if only to dignify the claims of Dow Theorists that the rally off of April lows has been nothing short of a lengthy dead cat bounce into extreme valuations and that the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports continue to signal a primary bearish trend from which the market cannot escape. The Dow's recent flat-line streak may be coming to an abrupt end as of Thursday, as futures are projecting a dismal open after Walmart (WMT) released second quarter earnings prior to the bell. Being the world's largest retailer and a Dow Component, Walmart's miss on EPS in the second quarter is sending shock waves through global markets. Walmart reported EPS of 68 cents, short of the consensus estimate of 73 cents per share. Though the company has gained market share from other competitors with consistent lower prices on a wide range of goods and has raised guidance, investors are focusing on the results and the threat of margin pressure from tariff costs. With the opening bell due to ring in just moments, Dow futures are indicating a negative open, with Dow futures off 165 points, NASDAQ futures lower by 100, and S&P futures sliding 25 points. While it may not yet be time to panic, there is certainly a mood change on Wall Street, especially with Jerome Powell's keynote address at the Jackson Hole Economic Conference scheduled for Friday morning. The next few sessions could go a long way toward determining the overall direction of markets in the near term.
At the Close, Wednesday, August 20, 2025:
Wednesday, August 20, 2025, 9:15 am ET
Sorry to burst the peace bubble, but there's not going to be any kind of deal to Whatever goodwill was achieved at the Alaska Summit between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday, August 15, was squandered just a few days later by the completely botched multi-lateral meeting at the White House between Trump, Ukraine's illegitimate leader, Zelensky, and the midget politicians of Europe - Macron, Starmer, Meloni, and the grand lady of the EU, Ursula von der Leyen, among others. While President Trump managed to get a call through to Putin while Zelensky and his "team" were still in the White House, signaling that Putin was ready to talk one-on-one with Zelensky, the participants then blundered into discussions about security guarantee arrangements for post-war Ukraine, including the ludicrous notion that Ukraine would purchase $100 billion worth of weapons from the U.S., financed by Europe, and the final, fatal kicker, that the U.S. would provide air support. To think that Russia would agree to have the very nations that started the war, and continue to fund the war, provide ongoing security in the form of re-arming Ukraine with U.S. jets hovering in the background is the absolute clown-world-approved height of folly. Maybe that was the intention all along. Ukraine doesn't want the war to end, nor does Europe, nor does the military-industrial-complex (MIC), which apparently has not just Trump's ear, but his whole face, foot planted firmly in his all-too-often wide open mouth. These people - the Europeans and President Trump - lack class, diplomatic skills, but above all, common sense. If they don't plunge the world into further conflict and World War III, they'll be lucky to escape the wrath of their own citizens, something about which Trump has no concerns, since he's a lame duck president who cannot run again. If there's a God, or Karma, or aliens watching over planet Earth, the European leaders will lose any upcoming elections (maybe not Italy's Meloni, who appeared to be somewhere between mildly amused and wickedly perturbed during the White House affair), resign, or be forced out by their own legislators. They don't deserve to lead anything greater than a half-hour field trip, let alone some of the major countries of Europe. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, a true diplomat, has, according to mainstream sources, Yahoo! and Politico, not ruled out a meeting between Putin and Zelensky, but has indicated that proper protocol be observed in a step-by-step manner, detailing each party's objectives, before such a face-to-face encounter should occur. As usual, the Russians are being circumspect and cautious. They've been fooled too many times by the West and, apparently, won't be fooled again. Naturally, the media spin on this will be along the lines of "Russia doesn't want peace," and "Russia played us," and "they're buying time," as Russian forces continue to steamroll through Ukrainian territory as Ukraine's military is on the verge of collapse, quickly running out of weapons and trained soldiers to operate them. Russia is winning the war on the ground and has no good reason to seek peace other than on terms they dictate, not the half-baked, completely unacceptable proposals being trotted out by Trump and company. Thus, the war rages on and President Trump can do nothing to stop it other than whine because he refuses to take his foot out of his mouth and stomp it down on the neocon coalition of European leaders and in his own congressional delegation. Excuse the French, but "sacre bleu, what a bunch of morons." The bottom line, so to speak, is that the U.S. government is broke, Europe penniless, each saddled with leadership that struggles to grasp even simple concepts like waging war on Russia's doorstep, with foreign (Ukrainian) troops using weapons they don't have and cannot afford is a losing battle.
Highlighting the desperation from the funding perspective, the idea of bitcoin-backed bonds has entered the conversation. "Bitbonds" have been touted as a potential solution to the federal government's fiscal cliff, wherein the U.S. Treasury needs to roll over $9 trillion in obligations over the next year. From a
“If 132 million American households each invested $3,025,” the authors estimate, “20% of the $2 trillion BitBond issuance could be absorbed by domestic retail investors.” The implications of this would be laughable, if not so dangerous, beginning with the idea that every household in America (there are 132 million according to the Federal Reserve) has $3,025 to invest. The vast majority of households in America don't even have $500 in savings for emergencies. There are other, even more frightening conditions involving "Bitbonds", not limited to the initial coupon being one percent (1.00%), or the unthinkable prospect (in the authors' minds) that bitcoin could lose value. There's more. Readers are advised to peruse the article themselves, armed with ample whiskey or other adult beverage to ease the anger or trepidation that may arise. This is the kind of thinking being done at the highest levels of the federal government. The American people are absolutely doomed. Moving on to matters of markets, it's worth noting that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has flat-lined for the past four sessions, closing Tuesday, August 19, at exactly the same level - 44,922.27 - as it did on Wednesday, August 13. That kind of finagling, takes real talent. At issue is the all-time high of 45,014.04 from December 4, 2024. It appears the stock market is in need of a dose of Viagra or some other stimulant to get, um, "up." It's just not happening. Overnight, Toll Brothers (TOL) and Lazyboy (LZB) released second quarter earnings, and into Wednesday morning, prior to the open, Estee Lauder (EL), TJX Holdings (TJX), Lowe's (LOW), and Target (TGT) announced.
Briefly:
Finally, Target (TGT), poster boy or girl (prefers "we", "they") for the limp brick-and-mortar retail sector, is falling again, down 10 percent in pre-market trading after beating lowered estimates. The company earned $2.05 per share, as opposed to $2.57 in the same period a year ago. Just about every metric was down, including same-store sales, off by -3.2%, and that's not inflation-adjusted. While the blame for poor performance ultimately lands at management's feet, the effect of higher prices because of tariffs cannot be excluded. Consumers, especially when they're being tapped out, will seek lower prices elsewhere or curtail spending to varying degrees. Retaliating against non-woke naysayers of the company's imminent demise, Target plans to replace its current CEO, Brian Cornell, with current CFO Michael Fiddelke, a former intern. So, take that, MAGA-tards. Pride month is just 10 months away... oh! Pre-market reaction to early headlines, sub-plots, and various social media posts has been muted, though they are at much higher levels than earlier. As the opening bell approaches Dow futures are down 22 points, NASDAQ futures off 60, with S&P futures down around 10 points. Gold is bid, up more than $25, at $3,383.40. Silver is up as well, popping over $38 per ounce. WTI crude oil continues to flirt with the 50s, bottoming out at $61.68 per barrel overnight before rallying somewhat back above $62, for now. The national average for a gallon of gasoline at U.S. pumps has been stuck at $3.12 for three weeks. America is so screwed. Our politicians are all sociopathic liars and crooks, Wall Street is a rigged casino, share prices of public companies have been boosted to unprecedented levels, and the economy is at stall speed. The silver lining, from the twisted Wall Street perspective shared by President Trump, is that a recession might cause the Federal Reserve to lower the federal funds target rate by a quarter or half percent in September and signal more cuts, which obviously would FIX EVERYTHING, though most people seem to be on pins and needles in anticipation of Jerome Powell's keynote at Friday's Jackson Hole conference. Bad news may be good, but having your chocolate ration increased from 30 grams to 20 grams is shrink-flation on steroids. --- John Maynard Keynes and George Orwell have entered the chat. ---
At the Close, Tuesday, August 19, 2025:
Tuesday, August 19, 2025, 9:40 am ET Similar to Friday's trading, there wasn't much in the way of volatility Monday, as President Trump welcomed Ukraine's Zelensky and a delegation of European leaders to the White House. Stocks seem to be a background issue to world events at this juncture. With the meeting of Trump and EU leaders concluded, somewhat successfully, without much in the way of details, the waiting game will continue until there's some concrete agreement. Next up is a meeting between Zelensky and Putin, then, Zelensky, Putin, Trump, and the EU. Some day, maybe, they'll figure out that poking the Bear (Russia) wasn't a good idea. Meantime, Home Depot (HD) posted adjusted EPS of $4.68, missing analyst estimates by six cents. Despite the miss, the home improvement retailer's earnings were slightly better than the same period a year ago, when EPS was reported as $4.60 per share. With a share price of 394.70 as of Monday's close and trailing earnings of $14.93, Home Depot is trading at a multiple of 26.44, a premium level for a mature company. The stock peaked at 431 on December 6, 2024, just after the Dow - of which Home Depot is a component - made an all-time high of 45,014.04 on December 4. Both the Dow and HD have failed to mark new records even though the NASDAQ and S&P have powered to multiple new highs this year. This kind of valuation is what usually leads to market crashes, but, in today's environment, the duopoly of Lowe's (LOW) and Home Depot, which dominates the market with a combined market share exceeding 60%, is allowed to continue while the middle class and small businesses suffer. According to the new rules, the middle class must just accept whatever the government decrees. As such, democracy and capitalism are dead. It's only insider trading and big money keeping stocks at elevated levels. It shouldn't have been allowed to go on for this long, but it's likely to continue until it all blows up. At the same time, Americans are forced to accept higher prices for imported goods, the U.S. Treasury collecting duties on everything and then wasting the money on all manner of warfare and welfare. MAGA all you like. There are no breaks for Americans.
At the Close, Monday, August 18, 2025:
Sunday, August 17, 2025, 12:54 pm ET The Alaska summit between Russian and American presidents, Putin and Trump, appeared to favor America meeting Russian demands that have been outlined in great detail since the middle of 2024 (Istanbul). Without saying so explicitly, President Trump will either seek input from or issue marching orders to Europe and Ukraine. Any backtracking by Trump should be viewed as further impediment to peace and a win for the neocons, who are losing on the battlefield and in public opinion. Various media reports indicate that the full entourage of European dunderheads will accompany Ukrainian dictator, Zelensky to Washington for Monday's meeting with President Trump, including NATO Secretary General Rutte, French President Macron, UK Prime Minister Starmer, German Chancellor Merz, Italian Prime Minister Meloni, and Finnish President Stubb may also fly to Washington along with Zelenskyy. More names could be added. A great deal of what transpires in global markets this coming week and beyond will be dictated by the outcome of Monday's White House confab, making matters difficult to discern until there's concrete evidence of either a continuation of hostilities with Russia or concessions toward ending the conflict. Advice: Stay tuned.
Friday's trading was jittery and had almost a random quality to it, with little conviction on the whole. Thus, the Dow remains the one major index that hasn't made a new high. It continues to trade below the December 4, 2024 close of 45,014.04. Along with that, the Dow Jones Transportation Average confirms the bearish primary trend according to Dow Theory, an art of market understanding that has become nearly extinct since the passing of its last great promoter, Richard Russell (July 22, 1924 – November 21, 2015), publisher of the Dow Theory Letter from 1952 until just before his passing. One of the greatest and easiest derivations from Dow Theory is its natural ability to capture primary trends in a macro sense. While the components of the Dow Industrials change on irregular intervals, the addition of new components and deletion of others normally can be considered a function of keeping the index a reasonable reflection of American big business with a subtle leaning toward better-performing companies. After all, since the entire structure of Wall Street and stock markets is to sell shares of companies to everybody and anybody with money, it makes perfect sense that the averages and indices would purposely reflect the market as a place to improve and enhance one's wealth. Given that the Dow Industrials and Transports are - like just about everything else - manipulated by large money managers, banking interests, large funds, and the government to some degree, the fact that both of the averages have NOT escaped from bear market conditions offers an inkling of suspicion as to the overall bullishness of the other indices. It may be nothing at all, or it could be important. At the very least, all-time highs on the more speculative indices - NASDAQ and S&P large caps - while old man Dow Jones hasn't reached in eight months should give one pause and some insight before rushing in to buy stocks. An interesting retrospective on Russell is provided via the San Diego Reader archives. Adding to the fear factor should be consideration of the Shiller PE, or CAPE, which stands at 38.84, second-highest ever. Whether traders take cues from market indicators or continue with the bubble "greater fool" theory of 21st-century investing is more a matter of media narratives and current sentiment than anything representing discipline and proper risk assessments. The U.S. markets are clearly overheated, but so is the money supply, and it has to go somewhere. Topping? Probably not, especially if Monday's White House meeting leans towards a positive resolution in Ukraine. Since April's tariff pause, NASDAQ has had 13 of 19 weeks to the upside; 12 of 19 for the S&P, both indices soaring above their respective 50-day moving averages since the beginning of May. Stocks reporting this week will feature second quarter earnings mainly of major retail outfits, including: Monday (before open) Bitdeer (BTDR); (after close) Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Blink (BLNK) Tuesday (before open) Medtronic (MDT), Viking Cruise Lines (VIK), Home Depot (HD); (after close) Toll Brothers (TOL), Lazyboy (LZB) Wednesday (before open) Estee Lauder (EL), TJX Holdings (TJX), Analog Devices (ADI), Target (TGT), Baidu (BIDU); (after close) Coty (COTY), Nordson (NDSN) Thursday (before open) Walmart (WMT), Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV); (after close) Ross Stores (ROST), Inutit (INTU), Workday (WDAY) Friday (before open) BJ's Wholesale (BJ). The economic data calendar will be fairly light, starting with Tuesday's Building Permits and Housing Starts for July. Thursday brings forth unemployment claims, weekly energy data from the EIA, and the economic reading of the Philly Fed. Friday's keynote address by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Conference will be closely watched for indications on the Fed's outlook concerning inflation, employment, and interest rates. The promise of three rate cuts this year are more than likely to come up short, given that there are only three more FOMC meeting scheduled (September, November, December) and inflation continues stubbornly intractable.
Treasury yields didn't move much over the course of the week, and the curve remains inverted from 30-day bills out to 10-year notes with the bottom at the 3-year (3.73%). From the 3-year note out to the 30-year bond, the curve steepens in normal fashion, though it's still rather alarming that it costs more to borrow for one month than it does for 10 years, the result of persistent high inflation. The Fed is reluctant to lower the base federal funds target rate out of fear that it woould lose what little control it exerts against inflationary forces in the first place. Of course, if the Fed just stopped increasing the money supply, inflation would cease almost immediately, but that might cause a slowdown, otherwise known as a recession, and this Fed just can't have that, so they remain stuck in policy no-man's land. The people suggesting that the Fed will cut interest rates 25 or even 50 basis points at the September FOMC meeting (9/16-17) are apparently oblivious to the inflation data from the past week, with CPI remaining elevated and PPI coming in red hot. The biggest moves in the treasury market came at the end of the curve, with 10-year notes up five basis points and 20 and 30-year bonds up seven. Demand for the longest maturities is waning, with buyers demanding more for their money. Once the tariff inflation hits - which could manifest anywhere from two months to six months out - expect the 30-year bond to scream past five percent and remain elevated. Spreads:
2s-10s
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
WTI crude oil closed out the week near the lows, at $62.29, a drop of $1.06 from last week's close at $63.35 and off $4.97 from the close on June 1 of $67.26. Crude has hovered between correction and bear market since the January 15 peak of $78.71, currently down 20.86%, and seeking lower levels. Crude's decline was tied primarily to a heavily-publicized meeting between America's President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, which took place on Friday, the 15th, in Anchorage, Alaska, the idea being that if relations between the U.S. and Russia are normalized, the price of oil is going to bottom out around $55-62 per barrel, given fewer sanctions and open trade routes. Oil's price decline may prove a boon to economies, especially those of Europe, given the outcome of the top-level discussions were positive. How the EU dimwits respond on Monday will play a huge role. Gas prices have leveled off over the past month and remain near the low end. Gasbuddy.com reports the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.12, the same as last week. Since gas prices aren't moving, state-by-state numbers are a waste of time. Suffice it to say that California remains at the top, at $4.48 per gallon, with Washington a close second, $4.39. In the Northeast, New Hampsire is lowest ($2.98), Pennsylvania, highest ($3.21). Illinois is the standout in the Midwest, at $3.40 a gallon, while Kansas ($2.82) is the lowest. All of the South, except Florida, from North Carolina to New Mexico, is sub-$3.00, with Mississippi the lowest in the country, at $2.67. The Sunshine State checked in at $3.06 Sunday morning. Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in 22 states, one more than the prior week.
This week: $118,309.30 Crypto is little more than slave money for the 21st century. Repackaged fiat in flashy technology, none of it has any intrinsic value of any kind. It cannot be seen, touched, mined, melted, torn, or altered in any physical manner. Crypto, and bitcoin in particular, is fully a figment of global imagination, hoarded by whales, who own 90% or more of the vacuous creations.
Gold:Silver Ratio: 88.95; last week: 89.80 Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 7/18: $3,355.50
Silver price 7/18: $38.42 A serious effort was made this week by the usual suspects at the COMEX and LBMA, with extraordinary assistance from the Trump administration's tariff team of the U.S. Customs and Border Protection, to keep the price of gold from advancing toward the inevitable $3,500 level. Last Friday, June 8, a not-so-subtle announcement was made that 1 kilogram and 1000-ounce gold bars would face tariffs of up to 39%, the country-specific rate for Switzerland, where 30-40% of gold bars worldwide are refined. After futures rocketed to record levels above $3,500, the administration issued a hasty statement, offering "clarification" in days ahead. On Monday, August 11, President Trump posted on Truth Social, "Gold will not be tariffed." There was not further commentary. It was enough to calm markets, though a social media post doesn't exactly cut it as clarification or official notice. In any case, futures fell, some insiders allegedly made a few million, and the gold price stabilized back into its recent range between $3,300 and $3,400. This week's drop is probably nothing to be concerned about, given everybody knows the price of gold is going to increase as long as the U.S. government continues running huge deficits and inflation remains above the Fed's target of two percent. Silver took a bit of a hit, though it also wasn't severe. These prices cannot be held down indefinitely. The global economy is being stretched to the point of no return and purchasing power in dollars, euros, yen, and pounds is rapidly declining. Precious metals are one of the few alternatives for wealth preservation during these turbulent times. Sunday's survey of prices paid on eBay revealed the true nature of separation from the physical and paper markets, especially as it concerns silver. While the COMEX, LBMA, PPT, and any other actors working to suppress silver's price may be perfectly content to keep the contracts for 1000-troy-ounce bars settled in fiat around $38.00 per ounce, it makes perfect sense that smaller denominations for physical delivery, especially down to one-ounce increments, would price consistently higher. Money Daily's benchmark price rose to $46.08 this week, an all-time high. Records which date back to January, 2021, employing a methodology that has not varied since inception, cannot be false and have consistently provided reliable price points for smaller, incremental, finished silver. While the difference between COMEX futures prices and physical sale prices is great, that variable has been consistent over time in consideration of labor, processing, and material employed in breaking down larger denominations into smaller ones, stamping, polishing, and delivery of finished products. The price also reflects the 13.6% fees charged by eBay on the total purchase. While it can reasonably be assumed that online dealers of size might receive better treatment in terms of fee structure, the exact terms are difficult to discern. The fee discounts probably amount to one to three percent. Since free shipping is always one of the filters employed in determination of the SOSMPB, final prices paid on eBay sales represents true, delivered prices, without exception. What this means for buyers and sellers in one of the world's largest open marketplaces for bullion (that being the eBay platform) is that the deviation and so-called "premium" on smaller denominations is reasonable, considering all variables. Anybody, from the collector looking to reduce his or her stack to the larger dealers such as Scottsdale, JM Bullion, Aydin, Liberty, Pinehurst, and many others, should expect sale prices roughly in line with Money Daily's SOSMPB, implying a premium of 20 percent or more, which is wholly in agreement with the processes, labor, and material costs outlined above. Silver, although widely considered to be undervalued in many contexts and demonetized by central banking operations dating back at least 150 years, is still regarded by advocates as money and a perfectly rational store of value. The consistency of Money Daily's SOSMPB provides the proof and can be considered the North American standard for market pricing of one-troy-ounce finished silver. Gold prices, using the same metrics are also accurate and reliable, with physical prices consistently adding premia to COMEX-derived future paper prices. In the end, it's finished, delivered, physical goods that should project proper pricing. COMEX futures prices and LBMA daily fixes being nothing more than a guideline for bullion banks, central banks, and fiat-centric manipulators. Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose sharply through week, to $46.08, a gain of $1.35 from the August 10 price of $44.73 per troy ounce.
Monday's meeting at the White House should provide some degree of understanding of how politics shapes the world going forward. Either the EU and Ukraine accept facts on the ground that Russia is winning massively or they fall back to their usual chants of "saving democracy" even though none exists in the blown-apart country. Since Putin and Trump appear to be the only sensible leaders concerned with ending the conflict, it's likely that the EU leadership will acquiesce to the Russian and American outlines for peace. Details can be tricky and may contain some potholes and opportunity for the EU to sabotage the well-meaning of the Alaska summitt, though they realistically cannot prolong the war without substantial U.S. support. If Trump is at all serious, he will inform his European "partners" that the U.S. is out and a joint force of NATO and Russian observers and advisors will provide security guarantees of what remains of the rump country of Ukraine. Otherwise, the status quo of stupidity and recalcitrance will remain, an outcome nobody outside of the EU-neocon-MIC junta will tolerate for much longer. To say that the fate of the world hangs in the balance of Monday's White House conference may be putting it lightly. Those who want war will get their just deserts. Those seeking peace, as always, will have to guard their flanks.
At the Close, Friday, August 15, 2025:
For the Week:
All information relating to the content of magazines presented in the Collectible Magazine Back Issue Price Guide has been independently sourced from published works and is protected under the copyright laws of the United States of America. All pages on this web site, including descriptions and details are copyright 1999-2024 Downtown Magazine Inc., Collectible Magazine Back Issue Price Guide. All rights reserved.
|
The good news is that the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the week solidly in positive territory. The bad news is it once again failed to reach all-time highs on a closing basis. The expected boost from the revelation that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway initiated a large stake in United Health (UNH) was offest by 17 of the 30 Dow stocks finishing in the red on Friday. UNH did produce a gain of nearly 12 percent, but it wasn't enough to get it over the bar. Only six of 13 stocks on the Dow that gained on Friday were up more than one percent.
