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Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.
PRIOR COVERAGE:
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Friday, August 8, 2025, 9:26 am ET Now that President Trump's tariffs have become actively enforced, the question on the minds of macro-oriented investors is whether this marks the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end. On one hand, having global import tariffs in place suggests that the period of uncertainty that began in April has ended in August and that any further changes in trade policy will be incremental and/or inconsequential. Peering out over the horizon of the remainder of the second half of 2025 and into 2026, weighing the effects of tariffs on countries exporting to the U.S., the federal government, and U.S. consumers would appear to indicate that of the three, there is only one winner, that being the almighty federal government, which will benefit from increased revenues. Countries trading with the United States will undoubtedly suffer. From India to Switzerland to Brazil, officials are already bracing for a blow to employment among firms doing business with the U.S. and planning or already implementing policies to shore up affected businesses. As far as U.S. consumers are concerned, tariffs - despite being told that inflation is close to two percent and tariffs won't raise prices - just about everything and anything that is imported, other than oil and gas, will cost more tomorrow than it did yesterday. What's troubling about these implications is that while the government will be taking in possibly as much as $300 billion in tariff revenue this year, and maybe up to $500 billion next year, neither the president nor congress has shown any inclination toward controlling their own spending, which also contributes mightily to inflation. Whether the federal government gets its money from individual taxpayers, corporations, or tariffs, they still spend much more than they receive, making the idea that giving them more money will somehow work out towards a reduction in spending look incredibly naive. Congress will just spend more on defense, social programs, pet projects of senators and house members and other associated nonsense, none of which benefits the American public, which would like to see small business prosper, roads and bridges repaired, and housing becoming more affordable. None of those things will happen under the current regime and their trade wars, saber rattling, and actual mass destruction of various enemies. So, this period of time, in which congress is away on a month-long vacation, should be considered the beginning of the end because conditions for average Americans are likely not to improve, but decline further. For those on the lower rungs of the wealth ladder, the poor and destitute, their lives have already become more miserable, with the government imposing work requirements on recipients of SNAP benefits (food stamps). That policy may actually be a blessing in disguise, forcing the terminally-needy to actually earn a living rather than live off the dole. With more money in the hands of the government and, effectively, less in the hands of the people via inflation, the potential for misuse and mayhem is large. Everybody already knows - or should know - that the federal government and its massive bureaucracy is completely corrupt. The thought that those with their hands already in the cookie jar would stop taking treats now that there's more of them is ludicrous. At the end of day, individuals will determine public policy, not some wonks at the America First Policy Institute, the non-profit think tank that formulates the president's policy agenda. These people spend their waking hours writing white papers that define and praise their own agendas, dining at the best restaurants in Washington, D.C., all on the dimes of wealthy contributors who fuel their obsessions.
From their perspective, President Trump can do no wrong, and all policy initiatives are spot on, great and wonderful benefits for the prosperity of The president doesn't make policy. the people at the America First Policy Institute do. If they're right, and have the best interests of the United States and its people top of mind, great. Otherwise, well, we'll just have to wait and see, won't we? Meanwhile, Wall Street churns along, though from a Dow Theory perspective, stocks are still enjoying what amounts to a sugar rush. after the initial announcement of the tariff policy in April, stocks fell quickly and were only revived when Trump announced a 90-day pause just a week later. Now that the tariffs are actually in place, shouldn't stocks return to those earlier depths. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average are the only two major indices that have failed to make new highs following the April selloff. What that means in Dow Theory terms is that the primary trend has not changed, and that bear market conditions are still in effect. The transports confirm this in a rather large way. Except for a few days in July, the trannies have been in correction territory since the end of February. With the industrials dipping below 44,000 on Thursday, the stage is set for further losses and possible spillover effects to the S&P and NASDAQ. So far for the week, through Thursday's close, the scorecard favors the bulls, with the Dow up 380 points, NASDAQ up 592, and the S&P ahead by 102 points. Stock futures are up, gold and silver are bid after Trump slapped 39% tariffs on gold bars from Switzerland, and WTI crude fell below $64 on Thursday and is now trending lower. (BTW: Suki, the dog with the tic, is fine. The tic was removed and killed.) Fun week, huh?
At the Close, Thursday, August 7, 2025:
Thursday, August 7, 2025, 9:11 am ET Editor's Note: Apologies for the short post. Animal emergency. Tic on dog. Needs to go to vet. Different Day, Same Story (DDSS). Stock futures are ripping higher as companies report generally-positive second quarter results. Companies that reported after the close Thursday include AppLovin (APP), Draft Kings (DKNG), and Jack In the Box (JACK). Before the opening bell Thursday, Lilly (LILY), Conoco Phillips (COP), and Sony (SONY) have reported and are in focus. WTI crude oil is at $64.79, the lowest since June 24. Gold and silver are being bid. Gold, $3,456.70; Silver, $38.51. Trump is carving out items from tariffs, like chips, coffee, etc. What's the damn point?
At the Close, Wednesday, August 6, 2025:
Wednesday, August 6, 2025, 9:30 am ET Stocks took a turn for the worse on Tuesday, reacting to somewhat conflicting data from the July Services ISM Report On Business.
The key data was:
While the overall business activity was well beyond the breakeven of 50%, it was lower than the reading of 54.2 percent recorded in June. New orders and employment also suggested that contraction might be on the horizon, with employment in contraction territory for the second month in a row and the fourth time in the last five months. The key take-away, delivered by Steve Miller, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Business Survey Committee, was:
“July’s PMI® level continues to reflect slow growth, and survey respondents indicated that seasonal and weather factors had negative impacts on business. The Employment Index’s continued contraction and faster expansion of the Prices Index are worrisome developments. The New Exports (a 3.2-percentage point decrease in July) and Imports (a 5.8-point drop) indexes, which both moved from expansion to contraction, provided signals that tariff tensions are impacting global trade. However, continued expansion in the Business Activity and New Orders indexes, together with a slight improvement in the Backlog of Orders Index, highlight the resilience of the U.S. services sector. Some respondents noted increased transportation congestion that supported the ‘slower’ Supplier Deliveries Index reading, another sign that activity levels are expanding. The most common topic among survey panelists remained tariff-related impacts, with a noticeable increase in commodities listed as up in price.” Since the ISM is not a government agency, Wall Street takes their surveys seriously, which, in this case, leaned negatively. On the other hand, earnings from major companies continue to roll out, and they have been mostly bullish. Disney (DIS), a Dow component, reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.61, beating the $1.46 expected by analysts polled by Bloomberg. Earnings increased from $1.39 from a year ago. Shares are flat heading into the open. McDonald's (MCD), also a Dow 30 component, announced second quarter EPS of $3.19, better than estimates, sending shares higher by nearly four percent before the bell. Shopify (SHOP) blew away analyst estimates, issued strong forward guidance, and is trading more then 18% higher in the pre-market. UBER (UBER) announced earnings of 0.63 per share, narrowly beating estimates, and also announced a stock buyback, but shares are down slightly heading toward the cash open. Snap Inc. (SNAP) continued to suffer, with a net loss of $263 million for the quarter, compared to $249 million in the prior year. Reporting after the close Tuesday, the company continues to struggle, losing 16 cents per share. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is down five percent in the pre-market after beating on revenue but missing on EPS. Related, Super Micro Computer (SMC), is being absolutely slammed, down 16%, as cracks begin to widen in the AI narrative. It appears, from these reports, that tech stocks are beginning to fade, while big cap, long-standing companies, as evidenced by the results from Disney and McDonald's, are better suited to navigate the current environment. Futures are up for stocks. Gold and silver slightly lower. WTI crude hit $65.15 overnight, but is rallying back above $66, as President Trump’s deadline for Russia to make peace in Ukraine approaches, with more sanctions in the U.S. pipeline. It's a very mixed bag, especially when factoring in the tariff situation and global politics.
At the Close, Tuesday, August 5, 2025:
Tuesday, August 5, 2025, 9:20 am ET After stocks swooned Friday on the poor July jobs figure of 73,000 and massive revisions to May and June, stocks started off the new week Monday with massive gains. Makes perfect sense in an imperfect world. Here's Julia Louis-Dreyfus explaining Non-Farm Payrolls, GDP estimates, mainstream media, and politicians in general.
It being the height of earnings season, Wall Street actually could care less if people have jobs, are losing jobs, need jobs, or don't do their jobs. Profits matter and this week will see more than 100 of the S&P 500 post second quarter results. There are simply too many reporting to adequately cover them all, but here are a few highlights from companies reporting after the close Monday and before the open Tuesday. Palantir (PLTR), a Wall Street darling, set a revenue record, boosted guidance and is ahead by more than seven percent pre-market. Pfizer (PFE) boosted its outlook based on cutting payroll and a strong second quarter. The stock is up two percent in early trading. Dow component, Caterpillar (CAT) missed on the bottom line and suggested a $1.5 billion hit on tariff issues. Shares are lower, but only by less than one percent. British Petroleum (BP) beat estimates and BP made its biggest oil and gas discovery in 25 years off coast of Brazil, sending shares up about one percent. At $32 per share, BP may be turning things around. Chemical giant, Dupont (DD) exceeded estimates and is trading more than five percent higher before the opening bell. Hotelier Marriott (MAR) posted net income of $2.78 per share. Earnings, adjusted for non-recurring gains, came to $2.65 per share, beating estimates by a penny. Investors are unsatisfied with soft guidance and have sent shares down by one percent. Stock futures are modestly higher across the board. Gold is recovering from an early-morning setback, but trading around $3,420. Silver is up 21 cents at $37.54.
At the Close, Monday, August 4, 2025:
Sunday, August 3, 2025, 1:10 pm ET August 1, and the imposition of President Trump's import tariffs by the United States proved to be a harsher taste of reality than markets could withstand. After three months of continuous rallying in stocks, once the tariffs were finally put in place - after Trump's ill-timed 90-day "pause" - the market puked up some of the excess as markets ended a turbulent week. Taken together, the average new tariff rate rises to 15.2% from 13.3% — up significantly from 2.3% in 2024, according to an article published by Bloomberg Economics. That's quite a rise given the circumstances in the U.S. and in international relations. Americans should expect to be paying more for many imported goods while the government collects the tariff levies. The problem with tariffs under the leadership currently in place is that the federal government is making no effort to cut spending. Americans got the tax relief that Trump promises, extending his 2017 tax cut, but any additional funds coming into the government coffers via tariff revenue will likely be squandered (or pilfered) by the unaccountable, untouchable policy-makers in congress. If there was an honest effort to eliminate waste, fraud, and abuse, the tariff revenues would be put to work to slash the odious debt that's reached crisis levels, now more than $37 trillion. While it's still early in the game, and tariff revenues have already begun to surge, it's likely to take six months to more than a year for any noticeable effect to appear. Keep a close eye on Treasury Secretary Bessent, who should be managing the accounts in an austere manner. The government is still going to issue loads of debt and President Trump won't stop screaming at the Fed Chairman to lower the federal funds rate until Powell's term ends in May, 2026. With the federal government paying over $1 trillion just in interest payments per year, one can't blame Trump for his rhetoric. A lower borrowing rate would cut the government's deficit significantly. But again, when does congress start making real budget cuts? Probably never. Beyond the tariff trauma drama of Friday, Wednesday's first estimate of 2nd quarter GDP (a complete fiction at +3.0) and the non-Powell-movement (the FOMC is constipated) at the Fed, the major headline wasn't the July Non-farm Payroll number of +73,000, but the massive revisions to May and June.
According to the BLS: The change in total non-farm payroll employment for May was revised down by 125,000, from +144,000 to +19,000, and the change for June was revised down by 133,000, from +147,000 to +14,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 258,000 lower than previously reported. The numbers were so far out of whack that President Trump fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) commissioner Erika McEntarfer, displeased with both the July number, which he considered too low, and the May and June revisions, which he considered just plain ridiculous (he's right about that). Look, everybody who follows the jobs number already knew that the BLS is, and always has been complete fiction, their employment estimates based on various models, seasonal factoring, birth-death assumptions and a thousand other statistical anomalies. It was more than past time to get rid of the head of the Bureau. More cuts to staff should follow. Two of the more pithy comments on social media sum up the current chaos in Washington, D.C.:
"The last six letters of her name (McEntarfer) is an anagram for "farter."
The major indices ended the week badly, wiping out the small gains and then some. Expectedly, the worst was the Dow Transports, which was slugged lower by 7.70%. Nothing like clogging up international trade with stifling tariffs to put all of the companies that move stuff at risk. Trump's 90-day pause almost over (most tariffs take effect August 8), the expectation is that stocks will continue lower until something else breaks, like Ukraine, Gaza, employment, rioting over deportation, et. al. With congress on vacation until Labor Day (September 1), this month may turn into a repeat of April, but without the rebound. The VIX - the measure of volatility - was up 21.89% on Friday, from 16.61 at Thursday's close to finish out the week at 20.38, though it was as high as 21.90 early Friday afternoon. Individual stocks moved in varying directions. Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) boomed, while Amazon (AMZN) and Coinbase (COIN) swooned. Companies such as Whirlpool (WHR), Boeing (BA) and UPS (UPS) were wrecked, citing tariff issues as proximate causes of their demise. More than 100 companies in the S&P 500 large-cap index report second quarter earnings this week. Here are some of the bigger names. Clicking on the graphic will open a larger image in a new window or new tab.
 Economic data is pretty light this week, with MBA Mortgage Interest Rates and EIA's weekly energy assessment on Wednesday, and unemployment claims Thursday morning.
The Fed gathering on Tuesday and Wednesday turned out to be nothing more than the usual hot air as the FOMC kept rates on hold for a fifth straight meeting. With only three meetings left in 2025 (September, November, December), if they're going to make three rate cuts - which was predicted at the start of this year - they'd better jump to it. There has been little to no evidence that rates need to be cut thus far, despite the two Trump appointees to the FOMC board - Michelle W. Bowman and Christopher J. Waller - voted for a 1/4-point cut. Though much was made about the dis-unified FOMC, the fact that the two dissenting members were Trump loyalists suggests that their vote was little more than a kind gesture toward the president, otherwise, meaningless. There will be talk of a recession if the stock swoon which took over on Friday continues through August. That would likely give the Fed cover for at least 25 basis points, maybe even 50. There's so much confusion being caused by Trump's policies that nobody is certain where anything is going, other than data pointing to a slowdown centered on Western nations. The BRICS are another story altogether, one which the Fed and Trump would rather leave in the background. Yields got squashed on Friday, as stock profits and losses headed straight into Treasuries. The 10-year note dropped 14 basis points between Thursday and Friday, the 30-year bond dipped 8. One-year notes fell 23, 2-year notes dropped 25 basis points or 0.25% in one day, which is remarkable. Perhaps President Trump should stop calling Chairman Powell "stupid" or "late" and focus more on the market which may lower rates as a natural function. Trying to get a lower dollar and lower interest rates at the same time, is like Trump trying to "middle" the markets, much as a sports handicapper would take both sides of a spread, hoping for a perfect result. Perfection is seldom achieved. Trump might try making more realistic choices. Though almost nobody is mentioning it, the Treasury Yield Curve has suddenly re-inverted, with every maturity longer than 30 days, out to 10 years lower. With 1-month bills at 3.49%, only 20-year and 30-year bonds are higher, at 4.79% and 4.81%, respectively. Trump's presidency may live or die by the success or failure of his tariff policy, but, if the yield curve inverts further, even to the point of the 30-year dropping below 4.50%, plan on a recession. It's likely the U.S. is already in one, since government figures, such as the +3.0% GDP growth in the second quarter reported on Wednesday, are complete garbage and nearly meaningless in terms of real-life experience. Spreads diverged, with 2s-10s holding fairly steady at +54, but full spectrum dashed, dropping from +55 to +32. Credit markets are tightening which is bad for banks, and, what's bad for banks is bad for almost everybody else, those being creditors. Spreads:
2s-10s
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
WTI crude oil closed out the week at $67.26, a gain of more than $2.00 from last Friday's close of $65.07. Crude briefly crossed $70 on Wednesday, but quickly retreated, the supposed Europe-U.S. trade "deal" spurring thoughts of a renaissance for big oil. The sound bites coming out of the White House were becoming more and more ominous as the week progress until finally, crude dropped like a stone on oversupply and issues of slackening demand. Finally, when the tariff trauma reared its ugly head again on Friday, coinciding with second quarter earnings from ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX), both of which finished lower on the day, crude longs got crushed. Trade policy is going to impact shipping volumes and all other travel which wouold inuitively infer lower crude pirces, though sanctions on Russia and just about every other country on earth might manifest in different degrees at various locales. If anything, slowing trade should result in lower oil prices, though nothing is very certain at the present time. Like oil, gas prices have simply leveled off over the past month and remain at low levels. Gasbuddy.com reports the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.13, unchanged last week. As usual, California has the highest prices in the country, $4.47, up two cents on the week. Mississippi and Oklahoma (both $2.69, unchanged) continued to offer the lowest prices at the pump. Louisiana, Texas, and Tennessee each posted prices of $2.74 on Sunday, followed by Arkansas ($2.75), Alabama ($2.76), and South Carolina ($2.77). North Carolina ($2.87) and Georgia ($2.89), and Florida ($2.92) put the entire Southeast under the $3 mark. The Northeast saw pricesmove in the opposite direction. Pennsylvania ($3.24) was up six cents for the week. Other than New Hampshire ($2.99), all other New England and East coast states remained at or above $3.00, ranging from Maryland at $3.17 to Rhode Island at $3.03. Midwest states were led by Illinois ($3.44), the price up seven cents on the week. Kansas ($2.84) is the lowest in the region, followed by North Dakota ($2.87) and Kentucky ($2.87). Other states n the region below $3 include Nebraska ($2.90), Colorado ($2.92), Wisconsin ($2.94), and South Dakota ($2.99). Iowa settled right at $3.00. Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, and Minnesota are all slightly above $3.00. Along with California, Washington ($4.40) is the only other one above $4, as Oregon remained down a few cents below, at $3.95. Nevada ($3.71) was up a nickel. Arizona ($3.19) rose four cents, but is still priced at a premium to neighboring New Mexico at $2.91. Idaho ($3.45) and Utah ($3.32) were virtually unchanged. Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in 21 states, one fewer than last week.
This week: $113,838.20 Bitcoin took a hit as did most risk assets. Similar to gold in one superficial regard, it moves contrary to the dollar, so with $USD up guess where all the Wall Street money was going? Obviously, there are fewer "diamond hands" than the general crypto narrative would lead one to believe. Precious Metals Gold:Silver Ratio: 92.08; last week: 87.10 Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 7/3: $3,346.50
Silver price 7/3: $37.13 Though both gold and silver were severely beaten down on the COMEX over the course of the week - gold hitting a low of $3,321 and silver as low as $36.38 - gold's rebound was sharp enough to register a solid gain on the week. Silver, however, was issued a deeper dive, and fell well short of break even. It was only a few weeks ago that silver was threatening $40/ounce, a price that COMEX and the LBMA would not tolerate. More people watch the price of gold with more interest than that of silver, so a nearly nine percent drop on paper silver in just over a week's time doesn't get nearly the coverage it should. If anything, silver is the Achilles Heel of central banks. None of them own any in significant quantity, and despite efforts over the last 150 years it still has not been completely de-monetized, though many of the talking head in the financial media will reference it as an industrial metal, despite thousands of years as base money. With the advent of tariffs threatening global trade, gold should see new all-time highs within the next few months as investors flee riskier assets. Silver's direction would likely be in the same manner, and move well beyond the psychological $40 barrier. In the event of a stock market meltdown that appears to have a high probability, the possibility of gold and silver dropping in a panic trade looms another possibility, such as what happened in 2008, though the metals bounced back much more rapidly than stocks did at that time. The week's action skewed the gold:silver ratio by nearly five points, back above 90, indicating once more that the riggers of precious metals prices have lost all credibility, and, despite silver being in a structural supply shortage now for three years running, the paper silver pushers are already panicking. Once the tariffs become engrained into U.S. trade, attaching to everything that crosses the border, the inflationary bump should be severe enough to move both metals higher. Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell for a second straight week, to $43.91, a decline of 93 cents from the July 27 price of $44.84 per troy ounce.
The last week of July was kind of a crazy one, but there's certain to be more madness out of Washington and Wall Street in weeks and months ahead. Better get that Christmas shopping done early this year before one of the following occurs: a) your credit cards start getting denied; b) the price of everything goes through the proverbial roof; c) doesn't matter because there's nothing to buy because of the stiff tariffs, or; d) all of the above. We do live in interesting times. (a Chinese curse)
At the Close, Friday, August 1, 2025:
For the Week:
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