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Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.
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Friday, September 19, 2025, 9:12 am ET The Shiller PE (CAPE) closed Thursday at 39.86, the second-highest level ever, as stocks march to new all-time highs on a near-daily basis. A day after the Fed lowered the federal funds target rate to 4.00-4.25%, stocks flew higher, if only to solidify the narrative that they are the only game in town, that any wealth creation during these tumultuous times will be achieved by buying and holding U.S. stocks. This was surprising to absolutely nobody. With Friday's opening bell approaching, stocks are once gain poised to finish the week on the positive side of the ledger. Through Thursday's close, the Dow is up 308 points, the NASDAQ has put on 329 points, the S&P 500 is ahead by 47, and the NYSE Composite Index is up 130. These are all at all-time highs. Exclusively to Dow Theorists, the Dow Jones Transportation Average is up just 14 points on the week and is nowhere near a record high. In fact, since the start of September, the Trannies have been trading between the 50 and 200-day moving averages, with the notable feature of a death cross in late August and the 200-day average in a declining posture. Why this is important in terms of Dow Theory, is because it signals a non-confirmation of the primary trend. While the Dow Industrials certainly have achieved escape velocity, reversing the bearing trend to bullish upon making new highs last month, the Transports have failed to do so. The Transportation Average must confirm the primary trend reversal of the Industrials. Otherwise it is a false flag, so to speak, indicating that the bearish trend that originated in December of 2024 is unanchored by market fundamentals. While Dow Theory is considered old school and inapplicable to modern markets, it does bear notice if only because the companies that move people, goods, and energy are showing signs of weakness. If things don't move, things don't sell. Critics will propound on the notion that the global economy is more tech-based, and, to a large degree, that is true. However, tech still relies on energy, and energy is required for the production of food, otherwise known as human energy. Nothing stands alone in the globally-connected economy. That's why low oil prices are constitute a warning to the bulls. While cheap oil is a boon to manufacturing and production, a consistent low price also indicates a lack of demand, translating into a stagnant economic environment, which is something that was on the Fed's agenda when they decided to cut interest rates on Wednesday. Just because stocks are going up doesn't automatically mean the underlying economy is strong. Often, Wall Street veers far from general economic trends as stock trading is an emotional experience, operating under the guise of momentum, greed, fear, and, occasional price rigging (OK, price rigging, or manipulation, may be more than just occasional, but that might sound too conspiratorial). There are more waring shots to those with a more cautious approach to investing. The massive one-sided insider trading that's been underway during this final push to fresh highs in stocks is a red flag. Corporate executives are selling shares at a strong pace at the same time their companies are buying back shares to boost the EPS and thus, the stock price. Warren Buffett continues to sit on an enormous cash horde of more than $350 billion, the thinking that if the greatest value investor of this generation is sitting in cash, looking for bargains, then he must be anticipating a pullback. Not to sound like Chicken Little, proclaiming the sky is falling, most indicators and cheerleading by the usual talking heads are insisting that the current rally has more room to run, and indeed, it might. New highs on a regular basis aren't normally the time to be thinking about bailing out, but, if the general understanding of playing stocks is to buy low and sell high, now would seem an appropriate time to at least trim some holdings. There is every possibility that the current bubble will exceed the all-time high on the Shiller PE, which is 44.19, at the peak of the dotcom bubble in December 1999. If that's the target, there's still plenty of room for stocks to run and investors with an eye for the exits might want to hold a little longer, at least until the U.S. congress plays its version of government shutdown no-hold 'em poker as the 2025 fiscal year comes to an end on September 30 and the 2026 fiscal year beings October 1. After today, that leaves just six legislative sessions before they put up or shut down. Odds favor a last minute deal, since that's what always happens. Republicans and Democrats will fold like the cheap suits they really are in order to keep the grift and the graft flowing. With the opening bell approaching, stock futures are foretelling a slight positive lean at the open. Gold and silver are recovering from the usual post-FOMC beatdowns, and WTI crude oil is hovering near the lows of the week, below $63/barrel. This week looks like a safe bet for the bulls, with the possibility of watershed moments next week or on Tuesday, September 30, when congress and the president have to decide on whether or not to keep the plates spinning or partially shut down the government. This is without a doubt a risk-taker and day-trading scenario.
At the Close, Thursday, September 18, 2025
Thursday, September 18, 2025, 9:32 am ET Wednesday, as FOMC cut the federal funds target rate by 0.25%, to 4.00-4.25%, market response was notably erratic, especially during and after Chairman Powell's disjointed "risk management" press conference. Stocks gyrated from positive to negative and back again, eventually terminating at levels roughly equivalent to where they stood just prior to the policy statement release at 2:00 pm ET. The entire announcement:
Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low. Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated. With that, the belief that the rate cut had been already "priced in" by markets began to circulate through the various media channels and advisory pundits. It didn't take long, however, for futures markets to express true investor sentiment as shortly after the cash market close, prices began ramping higher, to a point at which, by early morning in America, stock futures were signaling a buying frenzy. By 8:00 am Thursday, Dow futures were up 240 points, NASDAQ futures gained 275, and S&P futures were ahead by 50 points. There was little to argue concerning the Fed's rationale, despite their own admission that inflation remained well above their preferred two percent annual level. Employment, which had been shaded to the positive by the corrupt BLS, had finally been exposed as well below replacement and growth potential, when the agency admitted the largest "error" in its history: a 911,000 shortfall from reported numbers. Essentially, what the BLS said was that lopping off an average of 80,000 jobs in the 12-month period from April 2024 to March 2025 from their rosy monthly releases would result in a more accurate assessment of job gains. That reassessment of U.S. employment sealed the deal for at least a 25 basis point cut, with more likely to follow. In the aftermath of the policy decision, quants, savants, and expert Fed watchers pored over the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections provided by FOMC members and, in the usual Wall Street groupthink herd behavior decided that stock prices were currently not quite high enough in consideration of the Fed's thinking towards the future. Anybody not an expert or otherwise blessed with divination skills on a level with Delphic oracles can clearly see where this is headed. The Fed, while coming close to their "price stability" target inflation rate of two percent, wherein prices double in a mere 40 years, were never really serious about tamping down inflation, and now have completely abandoned the idea of keeping consumer prices in line with average incomes. Prices for essentials and non-essentials alike now have a green light to double in just 25 years, maybe 20, or 10, or possibly sooner. Hyperinflation cannot be ruled out at this juncture. Maybe President Trump is indeed playing 5th dimension chess with the global economy, his plan to complete the full debasement of the currency, eliminated the Fed and issue currency directly from the Treasury, maybe even back it with gold. Trump's "golden age" for America may prove to provide a wide-ranging ride of emotional pain and euphoria along the way to his perception of prosperity. For now, the public be damned, President Trump is ultimately going to be granted his wish for ever lower interest rates. Chairman Powell's term expires in May 2026, a mere eight months from now. Before then, the Fed is expected to lower rates by 0.25% at least one more time, probably twice, and possibly as early as the November and December meetings. Wall Street's lascivious habit of relying on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy for price discovery will continue. Among the more questionable, if not overtly humorous anecdotes of this most recent Fed motion, was recently appointed board member - and the architect of Trump's tariff and overall economic policies - Stephen Miran's vote for a cut of 0.50% at this meeting (denied) and his assessment of appropriate monetary policy for this year of 2.88%, well below all other members and somewhat out in economic left field. Assessing the current and forward conditions, it appears that the bubble economy will chug forward towards glorious new highs for stocks and prices of everything from milk to Macadamia nuts.
At the Close, Wednesday, September 17, 2025:
Wednesday, September 17, 2025, 9:30 am ET It's unlikely that there will be any surprises when the FOMC announces its interest rate policy decision Wednesday at 2:00 pm ET. The CME's Fed Watch tracker has the odds for a cut of 25 basis points at 94% with just a 6% chance of a 50 basis point drop. The attention paid to what banks charge each other for moving money overnight (the federal funds target rate) is one of the more endearing qualities of 21st century markets. The CME's tracking tool linked above even has a timer on the page, counting down the time to the announcement to the second, as if life or death rode on the momentous decision of the oracles of the Eccles Building. The Fed headquarters is the one getting a $2.5 billion facelift that so annoyed President Trump that he recently toured the facility with Chairman Jerome Powell.
The dramatics of the eight annual FOMC meetings is only outdone every so often by congress, whenever they run out of other people's money to spend, which, by the way, is about to take center stage again. Speaker of the House, Considering that Democrats have already vowed, as a bloc, to oppose the measure, and that the bill needs a 60-vote majority in the Senate, could this be the occasion for the long-overdue government shutdown for which average citizens have been hoping? Sorry, that won't ever happen. Even if it takes until the wee hours of Wednesday, October 1 to iron out a deal, our fruitcakes and flufflers in congress will find a compromise to keep their luxurious grafting going. Democrats are whining about cuts to Medicaid and other social welfare handout programs. Johnson's proposal includes $88 million for increased security for themselves, Supreme Court justices and the president. That measure is sure to pass, so add $88 billion plus annual increases to the calculus of future deficits. They're so coy and cute, these "lawmakers". Anybody over the age of 50 who isn't sick of government intruding into every aspect of American lives, taxing people to the limits of affordability while at the same time blowing wads of borrowed Federal Reserve Notes on far flung wars, interest on the debt, their own salaries and the various other wastes and abuses of capital should immediately head to see a psychiatrist because there's something wrong upstairs. All congress does is perpetuate their own existence, as if it mattered to anybody outside their little circle of influence. Americans should have overthrown these easily-bribed sleaze bags decades ago, but instead played along because congress kept handing out freebies over the years since the U.S. left the gold standard. Now that the debt is approaching $40 trillion, the citizenry, though allowed ot be armed to the teeth, is powerless to stop the federal government from doing anything it so pleases. Such is the sorry state of our uniparty "democracy." Today's mental math challenge: If a tiny house on a small lot could be erected for $100,000, how many homeless people could be awarded with a place to live, rent-free using the $2.5 billion going toward renovating the Federal Reserve's HQ and the $88 million going toward extra security for elected officials (that's a grand total of $2,588,000,000). Answer below. Tuesday was one of those rare days that the major indices didn't make all-time highs, but, fear not, because as soon as the FOMC makes their momentous announcement that they are cutting some obscure interest rate by 0.25% and the Chairman begins flapping his gums at the press conference, stocks should soar because, if you weren't already aware, cutting the federal funds target rate is not only great for stocks, the general economy, and cures blindness, six forms of cancer, and eliminates bloating, it also grows hair and increases stamina so you'll last longer in bed. Your partner(s) will love it. Heading toward Wednesday’s open, futres are essentially flat, with the Dow ahead by about 60 points. Gold and silver got gobsmacked overnight (big surprise), but are recovering. That was done so that when the Fed makes its two o'clock announcement, their highs won't be even higher than anyone could imagine. Eventually, they will be, but not today, thank you. Today's mental math challenge answer: If you answered 25,880, congratulations, you can do math. However, the correct answer is ZERO, as the government, even if places to live could come as cheap as $30,000 or $50,000, the government would never do it because that might cause people to think twice about their $2500 mortgage payments, annual real estate taxes exceeding $5,000 (much more in many cases) and how badly they're being screwed without even a reach-around. Thank you for your attention to this matter. At the Close, Tuesday, September 16, 2025: Dow: 45,757.90, -125.55 (-0.27%) NASDAQ: 22,333.96, -14.84 (-0.07%) S&P 500: 6,606.76, -8.52 (-0.13%) NYSE Composite: 21,375.19, -19.40 (-0.09%)
Tuesday, September 16, 2025, 9:35 am ET Like it or not - actually, what's not to like? - stocks ripped higher again on Monday in anticipation of Wednesday's FOMC interest rate policy decision, expected, almost certainly, to be a cut of 0.25% and possibly 0.50%, with more to come. Wall Street has been giddy over the prospect for a rate cut since the release of August non-farm payroll numbers by the BLS, which showed a gain of only 22,000 jobs for the month and revisions to prior months that demonstrated just how fragile the labor market in the U.S. has become. Of particular note was the revision to June, down by 27,000, from +14,000 to -13,000, the first negative print since 2020. Additionally, BLS also issued its Preliminary Benchmark Revision a week ago (September 9), slashing the job estimates by a record amount of 911,000. All that did was fan the rate cut flames a little higher. At the same time, gold has been setting price record after price record, up as high as $3,736.70 on the COMEX this morning. Silver has joined the party, trading at around $43.27 today. Silver, in one month, is up a stunning 12.32%, even outperforming gold. While there are obvious reasons for precious metal demand, the blaring one is the continued debasing of the U.S. dollar and other major fiat currencies. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of other currencies, is at a 3 1/2-year low Tuesday morning, of 97.05 and has been sliding precipitously since Trump's inauguration, when it stood at 109.35. While it's difficult to believe that the dollar has weakened against the yen, euro, and pound, that is the reality, though all of the major currencies have taken a huge downside hit when measured against real money, gold and silver. Stock pumpers are cheering a rate cut, which is no doubt inflationary. At the same time gold and silver stackers are cheering just the same. In relative terms, holding either asset class is a winner, though the big gains have been exclusive territory of precious metals for the past two years. For those without either asset class, life will simply continue to suck. Higher prices from tariffs and inflation will continue to erode purchasing power, everywhere. For the bottom 80% of individuals, there is no escape.
When the rug pull commences - and it will - everything will collapse in a heap, though from the experience of the 2007-2009 sub-prime collapse, gold and silver will rebound much more quickly than stocks, some of which may not recover at all. In the end, you got to know when to hold, know when to fold 'em...
RIP, Kenny Rogers.
At the Close, Monday, September 15, 2025:
Sunday, September 14, 2025, 11:55 am ET Stocks made gains in anticipation of a long-awaited cut to the federal funds target rate which has been on hold at 4.25-4.50% since December of 2024, when the FOMC lopped off 25 basis points after shedding 50 in September and 25 in November. While the PPI and CPI readings for August tilted in opposite directions, the PPI declining while he CPI increased to a rate of 2.90% annualized, participants in stocks were unfazed, putting in substantial gains on all the major indices, with the Dow up 0.95% on the week, the NASDAQ adding 2.03%, but the Dow Transports the lone laggard, pulled down 100 points, a 0.63% decline. During the week, France held a confidence vote on its prime minister, which failed, the choices now for Macron somewhere between capitulation and resignation, though he appointed Sébastien Lecornu on Wednesday, the latest prime minister already facing a no confidence vote in parliament while protests erupted across the country. Across the Channel in England, millions turned out for a nationawide protest against the government. The "Unite the Kingdom" march, organized by anti-immigrant activist Tommy Robinson was reported to have attracted 110,000, according to mainstream media reports, though photos from the event suggest the numbers were substantially larger.
Europe continues to hurtle toward self-extinction as France, England, and Germany are each facing financial and political issues caused by their own governments. Between rising prices, especially for heating and other fuels, continued support for Ukraine, widespread censorship, and the immigration problems, the general public has had all it can take and is nearing revolutionary conditions. The U.S. was rocked by the assassination of Charlie Kirk, a popular conservative activist who connected well with the country's youth. None of this deterred Wall Street from sending stocks to all-time highs while treasury notes and bonds also rallied. The upcoming FOMC meeting Tuesday and Wednesday (9/16-17) will be the highlight of next week's market action. Meanwhile, Trump's tariffs remain in force though in legal limbo as the Supreme Court granted expedited status to the administration's appeal to a lower court's ruling that Trump exceeded his authority in slapping tariffs on over 100 countries. The month of September nearly at its midpoint, politicians are once again suggesting that the government may shut down (partially) if some kind of spending agreement isn't reached by the end of the 2025 fiscal year on September 30. With the national debt nearing $38 trillion and the current deficit running at about $1.2 trillion, whatever the Fed does won't make much of a difference, as James Rickards suggests. Stocks The bubble in U.S. stocks continues to grow larger and larger with each passing day while the economy itself appears to be running at stall speed, with growth - if one can even believe the GDP figures provided by the government - at maybe one to two percent. Employment figures are so broadly misrepresented, the U.S. may actually have been losing jobs through most of the past two years. Record revisions to the BLS non-farm payroll data suggest that may be the case. No matter to the snake oil stock pushers on Wall Street. With billions of fungible dollars at their disposal in retirement accounts and at their own trading desks, the giant firms like Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America (Merrill Lynch) and others control more than 80% of all the trading on the largest exchanges. If they choose up, it's up. If they want to take profits and sell, they will, together. Essentially, the banking and stock and fixed-income trading functions within the U.S. are a cartel. Even though much of the trading in stocks is highly controlled by a small number of parties, that doesn't mean individual investors should avoid it. Since the last financial disaster in 2007-2009, it's been prudent to buy and hold or buy on dips. Stocks just keep rising for just about any conceivable reason. In reality, there doesn't need ot be a reason to buy or sell stocks. As long as the banking cartel is buying, they'll continue to return positively. Proceed accordingly. Treasury Yield Curve Rates
Yield on the 30-year bond is at a four-month low (4.66%, 4/30/25); 10-year is at a 5-month low (4.01, 4/4/25). The yield curve remained partially inverted with the nexus (low point) at 2-and-3-year maturities. The general tendency at the long end this week was in anticipation of a Fed rate cut on September 17, the current betting favoring 25 basis points with 50 not entirely out of the equation. Yield on the 10-year note was down four basis points, with the 30-year bond dropping 10. Yields on two-year, 3s, 5s, and 7s were all higher, though only marginally. Spreads continued to founder, with 2s-10s at +50 and full spectrum at +40 When the Fed cuts rates on Wednesday (9/17) nothing much will change, though stock and bond markets will likely rally further. The "magic wand" effect of each FOMC meeting is great for selling worthless paper. Spreads: 2s-10s Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years) Oil/Gas WTI crude oil closed out the week at $62.11, up ever-so-slightly from last week's closeout at $61.27. WTI crude was hovering between correction and bear market since the January 15 peak of $78.71, and now is clearly headed for an extended bear market, having sustained prices at or below $65/barrel for 2 1/2 months. Taking a longer view, oil is nearly half of what it was at the peak of 2022, when it was upwards of $118/barrel. This is indicative of a longer-term stagnation in conjunction with a general supply glut. With an "official" recession looming, prices could drop into the 50s and even the 40s over the medium term. Gas prices have leveled off over the past month and are lower this week, the national average of $3.15 on Sunday down four cents from a week ago, as Gasbuddy.com reports. State-by-state numbers show California remaining at the top, up three cents, at $4.64 per gallon. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Mississippi the cheapest, at $2.68, with Oklahoma nearby at $3.72. Oregon has jumped feet-first into the $4+ club with price at $4.28. Washington has caught California at $4.64. Nevada is pushing higher, at $3.88 on average Sunday. The Northeast and Midwest, out to Michigan and Illinois, are all $3.00-plus except for Ohio ($2.87), Virginia ($2.97) and West Virginia ($2.98). An ark from Kentucky, Missouri, Kansas, Iowa, through to the Dakotas are all sub-$3. Michigan is right at $3.00, while neighboring Wisconsin is $2.90 and Minnesota is $3.04. Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in 22 states, five more than last week, exclusively concentrated in the South and Midwest. The entire Southeast, even Florida ($2.91) is under $3.00 a gallon. Bitcoin This week: $115,368.20 Ponzi. Precious Metals Gold:Silver Ratio: 86.24; last week: 87.68 Per COMEX continuous contracts: Gold price 8/15: $3,381.70 Silver price 8/15: $38.02 Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) remained close to last week's record high since Money Daily began recording in 2021, of $48.15, a decline of 48 cents from the August 31 price of $48.63 per troy ounce. Since gold and silver continue to press higher, long-time stackers are obviously satisfied. In case there's a pullback on global recession fears, that would be an opportunity to buy in. Current prices are suggesting breakout and follow-through. As long as governments around the world continue to pursue ridiculous policies and overtax their populations, saving in precious metal is an obvious great idea.
This week's FOMC meeting may be deemed important and essential by some, but the underlying conditions lend credence to deteriorating conditions in the U.S. and Europe and the ultimate collapse of fiat currency regimes. France is under extreme pressure from the left and right combined. That is where people should keep focus because if France continues to flounder and slide toward civil war or outright revolution (the French are good at it, the country steeped in the history of tyranny and out-of-control governments), it could trigger the breakup of the European Union, which would, by any reasonable measure, be beneficial to all of Europe and to peace around the world. The technocrats in Brussels will have to be dragged kicking and screaming from their positions of power. Likewise in the U.S. congress, which wields the utmost in hegemony and hubris. The current legislators quite possibly the most corrupt gang of miscreants ever assembled in one place. Those opposed to the government at the federal, state, and local level are quietly growing in number. Many Western "democracies" have become powder kegs of discontent, the people subjected to heavy-handed regulations, taxation beyond their means, lower standards of living, and rising price inflation for everyday needs. This does not end well. Radical changes are afoot on many levels. Being like a boy scout - prepared - has become almost second sense to most people.
At the Close, Friday, September 12, 2025:
For the Week:
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