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Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.

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August PCE Shows Modest Increase, Core at 2.7% Y-O-Y; Fed's Pandering to Markets Evident

Friday, September 27, 2024, 9:13 am ET

Stocks will be looking for another positive weekly result when trading ensues Friday.

Through Thursday's close, the Dow is up 111 points, the NASDAQ has put on 242 points, and the S&P is up 42 and change. Traders appear a little bit nervous over the main data drop prior to Friday's open, the monthly reading of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE).

According to the release, August PCE was up 0.1% month-on-month, as core PCE rose from 2.6% to 2.7% on an annualized basis.

Income and spending were up less than predicted, which partially explains the Fed's willingness to cut rates. Rather than having a robust economy, the Fed sees an economy stretched thin, prompting their obvious timing for political purpose.

As expected, stock futures went vertical on the announcement. Coupled with China's roll out of fresh stimulus measures and the ongoing AI fantasy, there seems to be no limit to measures taken by officials in authoritarian positions to promote stock ownership and paint a portrait of the best of all possible (managed economy) worlds.

After a few euphoric moments, futures cooled down to levels indicating only a modest boost into the opening of cash market trading.

What the market seems to believe is that inflation, even at an annual rate of 2.7%, is tolerable, though individuals who have to feed families, drive to work, and live paycheck to paycheck might offer a different opinion of economic conditions.

As has been the condition for decades, wages are not keeping pace with price inflation. More and more consumers are using up savings or tapping into credit in order to meet regular expenses. The situation is pushing people into making difficult choices, downsizing household budgets, making substitutions, and general belt-tightening.

With the Fed planning to continue cutting interest rates for the next six months to a year, there will come a moment when investors realize that making financial conditions looser only exacerbates the inflation dilemma. Apparently, that moment has not arrived.

Election day is still six weeks away. The final verdict on who's going to be in control of the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives can't come soon enough. People are already weary of the media distortions, political posturing, and general gamesmanship of election season and are seeking change.

Seeking inspired leadership to emerge from the ashes of the election is a symptom of a desperate population.

At the Close, Thursday, September 26, 2024:
Dow: 42,175.11, +260.36 (+0.62%)
NASDAQ: 18,190.29, +108.09 (+0.60%)
S&P 500: 5,745.37, +23.11 (+0.40%)
NYSE Composite: 19,501.72, +120.54 (+0.62%)



Gold, Silver Soar Overnight Into U.S. Morning; China Continues Stimulus Moves; $25,000 Gold, $300 Silver Possible

Thursday, September 26, 2024, 9:28 am ET

Let's get stocks out of the way before proceeding to the good stuff.

Wednesday began with great promise. Stocks didn't exactly bolt out of the gate, but were positive in the early going, especially the NASDAQ, which, by 10:20 am ET reached as high as 18,132, a level not seen in two months time. After that, however, it was all downhill, led by the Dow Industrials, which was the first index to fall into the red.

The others would follow, but only the NASDAQ managed to climb back to positive ground, but only barely.

Overall, the day was spent selling stocks, not buying much of anything. The market seems to have hit a pocket of resistance to new all-time highs, despite the urgency suggested by the Fed that interest rates will continue to fall, so risk assets are the preference.

So much for that. Now, the good stuff.

In Wednesday's note, the focus was on the price of gold, but especially silver, which many have complained has not made new highs, even as gold has surpassed most expectations. The question was whether silver might exceed a price of $32/ounce and whether it would remain above that level.

During the day, silver, reading the COMEX continuous contract, maintained its price above $32/ounce for nearly the entire U.S. session, dipping below that point only for a few brief moments. Better yet, overnight, silver and gold both remained at high levels, and, early this morning, gold shot up as high as $2,708, and silver topped at out $33.03, a 13-year high.

What's very positive and constructive for the precious metals is that their advance is more than just a reflection of the U.S. dollar losing value (which is decidedly bad for U.S. consumers, though they're no doubt getting used to it by now), but is beginning to form a structure similar to other booms like in the periods of 1979-1980 and 2009-2011.

Those time frames were typified by high inflation or the aftermath of such, matching conditions present today. Despite what the Federal Reserve may be intimating by lowering interest rates and promising to continue to do so through the remainder of 2024 and into 2025, they're decidedly wrong-footed when it comes to inflation. If anything, their rate cuts will only exacerbate the inflationary forces at work, despite their belief that they tamed the best by raising rates as high as 5.50%.

As Paul Volker found out in the 1970s, interest rates had to be extremely restrictive to calm inflation. Apparently, Chairman Powell doesn't pay much mind to history, or he would have made rates much more restrictive, probably caused a recession, but wrung all the excess out of the capital markets. He didn't. He must have had other things on his mind, so inflation, instead of being under control, is about to rage further, though that episode will come after the election, when the BLS issues more bogus readings via the CPI and PPI.

But, back to silver and gold. If this current run-up is anything like those previously mentioned, there's still a good deal of room to run. People were awed when gold ran up from $50 to $800, and again when it bolted from $350 to $1950, and when silver, which seemed to go up every day in 2010-11, got close to $50/ounce.

What separates current conditions from those past episodes of rapid price appreciation, is that this seems to have more permanence to it. The Fed and the U.S. Treasury have so distorted the money supply and the debt that there's no going back. Gold and silver are likely to reach somewhat unimaginable levels in the years to come, and will probably stay near to extremes for longer than anybody expects.

Looking out 10 years, it's no stretch of the imagination to have the price of gold above $25,000 and silver over $300 an ounce because, when measured against a U.S. dollar that's already lost 98% of its purchasing power, that's where the price of real money should be.

One announcement was made by the usual suspects this morning.

Gross domestic product, the official scorecard of the economy, was unchanged from the prior 3.0% estimate, the government said Thursday. Whoopie!

Stock futures are soaring higher on the back of China's "bazooka" stimulus. Bear in mind that China is trying to stave off recession. The United States and Europe may already be in recessions. China's money is not coming here, though stock market participants seem to believe in everything from unicorns to fairy godmothers. Stocks are likely to go higher, but the dollar will continue lower. One sign of the depreciating dollar is in WTI crude oil, which is free-falling this AM, down to $67.85/barrel. Slack demand will do that.

Happy Motoring!

At the Close, Wednesday, September 25, 2024:
Dow: 41,914.75, -293.47 (-0.70%)
NASDAQ: 18,082.21, +7.68 (+0.04%)
S&P 500: 5,722.26, -10.67 (-0.19%)
NYSE Composite: 19,381.18, -125.37 (-0.64%)



S&P, Dow, Gold All Make New Highs; Will Silver Break Above $32?

Wednesday, September 25, 2024, 9:30 am ET

Another day, another record high close on the S&P 500, and the Dow Industrials, and Gold. It's getting to be so commonplace that people just expect stocks to keep going up, like in 1999, 2007, and, oh, then they went down after everybody sobered up.

There's a widely-held belief that stocks are being held up and pushed higher by nefarious internal stock market forces in order to propel Kamala Harris and certain other Democrats to power positions within the U.S. government. While that may be so, the bigger picture is that stocks are maintaining high levels and moving higher because that's what 50-basis point rate cuts do, as intended by the folks at the Federal Reserve, i.e., those nefarious internal stock market forces.

Since around 2000, and probably earlier than that, say, the 1990s, the U.S. economy has been largely held together with duct tape and baling wire. Industry has been replaced by financialization, where riches come to those holding stocks or real estate and working is for rubes and dummies. Figuring in the inflation of the past couple of years, wages for ordinary working stiffs haven't come close to equaling out the higher cost of food, fuel, housing, and just about everything else. So, it makes sense for stocks to just keep climbing, doesn't it?

If you have a pension, 401k, or other investment tied to the stock market, you're probably nodding in the affirmative.

Those of us who like to make money the "old fashioned way" are just, like, SMH (Shaking My Head), because there's nothing in the world of technology or economic reports that indicates the United States is leading in anything other than promoting wars and opening its borders to foreign strangers.

Adding to the chorus of stock promoters comes Yahoo! Finance, this morning pushing Tuesday's China stimulus plan as a potential boon for the rest of the world. Remembering that it's a major risk to take investment advice from firms that have exclamation points (!) in their names (worse yet would be question marks), the Yahoos at least suggested the big run-up in silver on Tuesday was caused by the China stimulus, though that claim requires a considerable leap of faith.

Silver was higher on the day, by a lot, more than four percent. However, the authors at Yahoo! Finance fail to point out that silver was already the best performing asset of 2024 other than bitcoin, followed closely by gold. Yahoos and people just as brain-dead fail to understand that gold and silver are being bought by everybody from central banks to center city miscreants. Precious metals are real money. Pieces of linen paper with pictures of presidents on them or digits on a screen signifying your accumulation of stocks like Nvidia, Google, or whatever other whopp-de-doo AI change the world company are not. They are substitutes, subject to the whims and desires of your masters at Vanguard and BlackRock.

Anyhow, here's part of what those yahoos have to say:

If Beijing starts throwing more government money at the problem, particularly for infrastructure, that could have global ripple effects.

Commodities would likely see another big push, impacting everything from US manufacturing to energy sectors. There could be major shifts in supply chains and pricing for raw materials (yes, again).

and...

In the words of Macro Compass founder Alfonso Peccatiello in a note to clients, "We are not risking a second inflation wave. We are rather looking at more inflation volatility over the next decade."

Not being familiar with Mr. Peccatiello, it's a good guess that this cherry-picked quote fits the Yahoo! narrative almost perfectly, as if to say, "Fear not, rubes of the world. The Fed's directive to lower interest rates and China's massive stimulus won't make Fritos or pork chops more expensive. It's just cement and lube products that will go up."

And who doesn't love the term, "inflation volatility"? That's a new one.

Dovetailing back to silver, China's stimulus will likely have some effect on the price of gold's little sister. Chinese paupers can buy gold and silver at most banks, unlike in the U.S. and Europe, where even getting cash out of a bank is becoming difficult. If China's stimulative policies trickle down to the serfs, a certain cohort will buy silver, and gold, and more rice and kimshi. Heck, with a population of 1.7 billion, there has to be a few silver stackers out there who will employ their version of the "stimmy" wisely.

So, OK, sure, silver is going to benefit. So is Jamie Dimon. Warren Buffet. Bill Gates. You and me, maybe. Maybe not, and surely, not so much. The stimulus is in China, not in the United States, so let's not be confused.

Silver, however, is going to price higher regardless of what governments or central bankers do, especially the latter group. Central banks have been on a gold-buying bing for the past two years and longer. Since the BIS designated gold as a Tier 1 asset in 2019, right there alongside U.S. Treasuries, and high value stocks, gold has been the preference, especially in China, Russia, and other Asian, African, Mid-east, and Latin American countries. The Fed and the ECB have stuck to their guns: stocks, treasuries, other paper assets.

So, as gold rises, so too silver. Silver has actually out-performed gold slightly this year, but it is poised to exceed it by leaps and bounds. Looking at two long-term charts: Silver price and the Gold:Silver Ratio, we can ascertain silversuggested path. When the gold:silver ratio is high, the price of silver is low. As that ratio goes lower, the price of silver goes higher, often, as in late 2010 to early 2011, and again in late 2020 to the middle of 2021 and beyond, much higher.

Silver is currently undervalued pertaining to the gold:silver ratio, which, even after yesterday's four percent lift, stands at 83.22, which is high, but not as high as the nose-bleed levels seen in 2020, above 100. The ratio has been gradually dropping, but it's far from over. Figuring 50 as an achievable level for G:S, $3000 gold would imply $60 silver. Considering the highs of $35 in 1980 and $48 in 2011, $65 silver is a distinct possibility within the next two years, and possibly sooner than that.

Breaking - and staying - above $32 is the next phase. After that, sky's the limit.

At the Close, Tuesday, September 24, 2025:
Dow: 42,208.22, +83.57 (+0.20%)
NASDAQ: 18,074.52, +100.25 (+0.56%)
S&P 500: 5,732.93, +14.36 (+0.25%)
NYSE Composite: 19,506.55, +61.12 (+0.31%)



Stocks Static Following Fed Cut; FedEx Slashed; Bitcoin Higher; Gold Holds Gains

Tuesday, September 24, 2024, 9:04 am ET

Last week's 50 basis point cut by the Fed is sure to have an effect on everything from the price of coffee to 30-year mortgages. For traders on Wall Street, the most obvious effect was to put them all to sleep.

One market participant called the activity in stocks, "the worst in 20 years." That's saying something, though the observation is not without marit. The Dow traded in a range of a mere 150 points, the NASDAQ, a little more than 120. The S&P 500 moved 21 points, top to bottom, but both the Dow and S&P still managed to register all-time closing highs.

If the intent of the Fed was to boost stock prices with their 0.50% gambit, it only seemed to be effective in fits and starts, and the bewildered horde of pumpers and dumpers seemed yesterday to be more complacent about goosing stock prices than they have been in the two years prior when the shouts for rate cuts had been the loudest.

Now that they got them, they seem to be content with the initial results, except, maybe, in the Dow Jones Transportation Average, and, in particular, shares of FedEx (FDX).

When stocks took a little turn to the downside on Friday, the Dow Jones Transports dropped 570 points, or, about 3.5 percent. FedEx, the most prominent and largest component of the Transportation Average, which is a mere 20 stocks, got wrecked on Friday, with shares tumbling 15% as the company announced EPS 25% below the same period a year ago and issued negative-sounding guidance.

It might be something, or nothing at all. Reporting earnings in a vacuum, such as FedEx does, apart from rivals and other stocks in general, its earnings are almost always a cause for some volatility. In any case, FedEx caused a large decline in the smallish transportation index, which hasn't made an all-time high in nearly three years (November, 2021).

More insight as to the direction of stocks might come from bitcoin, the globalized combination slush fund / Ponzi scheme, which has been on a roll of late, close to one-month highs around $63,500. A little more than two weeks ago, bitcoin was trading around 53,500-54,000, so the move may be little more than the usual noise.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has also been falling recently, down from 105 in June to a key inflection level at 100 most recently. A weaker dollar is seen as giving stocks a boost, as well as gold and oil. Obviously, gold needs little help from a declining dollar, but its all-time highs this year - all 34 of them - indicate dollar weakness and a preference for gold over all other reserves by central banks.

Gold continues to trade near all-time high levels, but the next big move may come from silver, which, despite being up more than 30% year-to-date, still appears to be wildly undervalued.

Oil, which has been slumping since mid-summer, popped above $72 overnight and is a beneficiary of the weakened dollar.

Generally speaking, however, the Fed's rate cut has been fully priced into stocks, so the next catalyst will likely be earnings, which start rolling out in two to three weeks. Until then, markets and traders may just say, "meh" to stocks and look elsewhere for profits.

At the Close, Monday, September 23, 2024:
Dow: 42,124.65, +61.29 (+0.15%)
NASDAQ: 17,974.27, +25.95 (+0.14%)
S&P 500: 5,718.57, +16.02 (+0.28%)
NYSE Composite: 19,445.43, +71.69 (+0.37%)



WEEKEND WRAP: All That Glitters: Gold Ramps to New All-Time High After Fed Rate Cut Panic; Is the Future a Dead Space?

Sunday, September 22, 2024, 11:48 am ET

On Wednesday, September 18, the voting members of the FOMC made clear the direction of the U.S. economy and its political and societal underpinnings. The Fed intends for the United States over the near term to experience persistent inflation above its "intended" target of two percent, a weakening currency, high levels of taxation and regulation, and the resultant decline of individual liberties.

By lowering the federal funds target rate at a time when stocks and housing prices are at all-time highs, bond yields historically low, and the price gold reaching for the stars, nothing coming out of the mouths of Fed speakers can be reasonably construed to reflect the truth. Watch what they do, not what they say.

While the theme of Wednesday's 50 basis point rate cut was that inflation and unemployment risks were equally weighted, evidence to the contrary is apparent. Even though unemployment has been rising of late, its persistence at a level beneath five percent suggests the American economy is flush with jobs for anybody who wants one. On the inflation front, recent CPI and PPI readings have been either flat or heading higher, not lower, as the Fed and government bean-counters would have you believe.

Was the 50-basis-point rate chop a policy mistake or part of a crafty master plan to keep the Fed in business and the U.S. Treasury borrowing?

It depends on where one sits. Making mistakes seems to be part and parcel of the Federal Reserve's mandate, as much as full employment and their laughable definition of "stable prices" increasing at more than two percent per annum have been for as long as anybody alive can remember. Those of an economic mind tend to think the Fed is constantly doing things wrong, while those in the inner circle inside the Washington, DC beltway, those who know the game for what it is, are acutely aware of their surroundings and the kind of can the Fed has kicked forward.

The Fed and the United States, leading from behind as it were, chasing other central banks to lower and lower interest rates, stands as a bulwark in the global economy, the great hegemon exporting Western values to the rest of the world. Only Japan is in the way, desperate to raise rates to save their failing currency from extinction. They, of course, fight a losing battle.

And then there are the BRICS nations, which, within a month's time will be meeting for their 16th summit, exchanging goods and services amongst themselves and other friendly nations, bypassing the dollar and Western values completely.

There's a reason the West is at war with Russia and threatens China, Iran, North Korea, and others not on board with its interventionist policy, and it is wholly economic. The U.S. wants to maintain its positional primacy in world trade and policy dominance. The BRICS are largely done with it. If those nations unwilling to toe the line won't listen, bombs will fall upon them. It's the only language the hegemon knows. It's as simple as that.

In a little more than six weeks, Americans will elect a new president, some Senators and roll over the House of Representatives. Whether the balance of power between the two parties is split one way or the other doesn't really matter. The Fed and Wall Street dictate policy to them. The politicians just act their parts, feigning partisanship or friendliness toward each other and various policies. In the end, they do the bidding of the money managers and lobbyists for the "Bigs", military, pharma, agriculture, tech. That's not going to change in any meaningful way no matter who's in the the White House, the Capitol, or the State Department.

The future for America, the UK, Europe, and its assortment of allies and treaty-bearers is set and it's not very bright. Where there once was liberty are now laws, limits and taxes. Capitalism and individualism have been replaced by socialized everything and heaps of regulations and reporting of activity.

In 1989, Francis Fukuyama declared the fall of the Berlin Wall, and therein, communism, as "The End of History." Naturally, his thesis was fraught with unprovable theoretical bombast. History cannot end. It's a physical impossibility. Fukayama and his theory were tossed upon the trash heap he was unilaterally declaring to be over.

Years earlier, aptly in 1971, the same year then-president Nixon took the world off the gold standard, songwriter Don McLean released his most notable work, "The Day the Music Died." The song referred to that fateful day of February 3, 1959, when American rock and roll musicians Buddy Holly, Ritchie Valens, and "The Big Bopper" J. P. Richardson were all killed in a plane crash near Clear Lake, Iowa.

There's a profound and prophetic message here. Listen closely:

In keeping with the theme, perhaps some day, Wednesday, September 18, 2024, will be known as the day the future died.


Stocks

Stocks went up. The Dow and S&P made new all-time highs. Meh. What did you think was going to happen?

The point of higher stock prices is to keep everything flowing. Millions of retirees have pension accounts tied inexorably to the stock market and Wall Street and the Fed doesn't want to rock the boat. Meanwhile, they've plotted a policy of skimming away those assets and gains with fees, taxes, and inflation. It seems to be working pretty well for everybody involved, top to bottom.

Escaping almost everybody's notice, the Dow Jones Transportation Average fell more than 550 points on Friday as the other indices were just getting a trim and a shave. The trannys were decapitated. That's a signal. If people and products aren't moving, nothing else will. Likewise, Warren Buffett hasn't gone largely to cash positions for no good reason.


Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date 1 Mo 2 Mo 3 Mo 4 Mo 6 Mo 1 Yr
08/16/2024 5.53 5.40 5.33 5.21 5.02 4.49
08/23/2024 5.51 5.35 5.25 5.13 4.92 4.36
08/30/2024 5.41 5.32 5.21 5.12 4.89 4.38
09/06/2024 5.28 5.28 5.13 5.02 4.69 4.10
09/13/2024 5.15 5.17 4.97 4.92 4.60 4.00
09/20/2024 4.87 4.88 4.75 4.70 4.43 3.92

Date 2 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 7 Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 30 Yr
08/16/2024 4.06 3.87 3.77 3.81 3.89 4.26 4.15
08/23/2024 3.90 3.73 3.65 3.71 3.81 4.18 4.10
08/30/2024 3.91 3.79 3.71 3.80 3.91 4.28 4.20
09/06/2024 3.66 3.54 3.50 3.60 3.72 4.10 4.03
09/13/2024 3.57 3.42 3.43 3.53 3.66 4.05 3.98
09/20/2024 3.55 3.46 3.48 3.59 3.73 4.10 4.07

It's probably safe to say that long-dated treasury yields have bottomed in the near term and short-dated bills will continue to reflect continuing efforts by the Fed to avert recession, i.e., lower short term rates via the federal funds target rate.

Given that dis-inversion, otherwise known as the normal shape of the yield curve, upwards-sloping, left to right, is well underway with the spread on 2s-10s at +18 and the full spectrum spread steepening quickly (at -80, up 61 basis points from just a month ago), a return to normalcy in the treasury complex is at hand.

With the most popular vehicle now being the three-year note, yielding 3.46%, bond players have been exhibiting a tendency toward the short-term game, which is likely amplified by the uncertainties in the world today, especially the upcoming U.S. presidential election, which by Tuesday will be precisely six weeks ahead.

As soon as the Fed announced their jumbo, panic-level rate cut of 50 basis points, 30, 60, and 90-day bills were consumed by the market with the voraciousness of a horde of hungry jackals, dropping yields on the trio by 28, 29, and 22 basis points, respectively, over the course of the week. Granted that these yields are destined to fall even further, implications for the rest of the instruments on the yield curve have become nearly self-evident.

The Fed plans to cut again in November and probably once more in December, likely at the rate of 25 basis points per meeting. With the 0.50% cut, they've delivered the goods for both Wall Street and their politically-connected friends, so there's no need to spook or encourage markets much more going forward post-election.

It's an easy speculation to guess that the Fed will continue cutting into 2025. The dot plots of appropriate monetary policy for federal funds rate on page four of the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections [PDF] show the largest cluster between 3.25 and 4.25% in 2025, so, another 1.50% in cuts over the next eight months is a reasonable expectation, maybe mor if economic conditions continue to deteriorate (which is likely).

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80

Oil/Gas

Closing Friday in New York at $71.25, WTI crude oil was up nearly $3.00, from $68.29 the prior Friday. The move to that level, prompted by the Fed's rate policy decision (sorry for beating that particular event to death, but it is that important), is nothing more than an inconsequential bounce of the recent bottom. Six months ago, WTI was in the $80s, and a year ago it was above $90 per barrel, so, the bear market in crude is likely to not be at an end. Enjoy it while it lasts, which, honestly, could be years and could be lower, significantly.

WTI crude oil should continue falling into the mid-to-low 60s. Gas prices will continue to tumble, at least until the end of October and probably beyond that.

Gasbuddy.com reports the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.18 a gallon, the first rise in prices (four cents) since late July. It's probably a temporary move, without meaning, just more noise.

California remains home to the highest gas prices in the country, at $4.69 a gallon.

In Pennsylvania, where early voting officially began, unofficially (it's under all manner of lawsuits and legislative wrangling) on Monday, prices were static, at $3.33, with the Keystone State remaining the price leader in the Northeast, albeit at the lowest level in 18 months. New York fell four cents, to $3.28. Connecticut fell another five cents ($3.12). Massachusetts ($3.13) was off another four cents, and Maryland stabilized at $3.07 per gallon. Prices in the Midwest continue to wane, though Illinois was up two cents this week, just above $4.00 seven weeks ago, to $3.43 on Sunday.

Mississippi took back the honor for lowest in the nation, at $2.66, followed by Oklahoma ($2.68) and Louisiana ($2.70). Texas, Alabama, Tennessee, and South Carolina, all check in at $2.74. Georgia remained below the $3.00 barrier for a second straight week, at $2.92. Florida ($3.09) remains the oulier in the South.

Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in 16 U.S. states, mostly in the Southeast and Midwest. That's down two states from last week.

Arizona, at $3.36, remained below $4.00 for a 20th straight week, leaving only California and Washington ($4.09) just barely above the $4.00 level. Oregon is at $3.67 and Nevada at $3.93. Utah ($3.51) and Idaho ($3.52) got some relief and remain well off summer highs.


Bitcoin

This week: $62,855.40
Last week: $60,225.70
2 weeks ago: $54,398.87
6 months ago: $64,052.68
One year ago: $26,591.66

The Crypto-Ponzi scheme continues to attract stupid money of which there is now even more. Bitcoin is where money goes for two primary reasons: 1) Reach for yield; 2) Sucking in greater fools. The first is purely a greed-driven speculation, nothing more. The second is similar, in hopes - mostly by Wall Street-style investment firms, hedge funds, and other money management schemes - to lure in unsophisticated investors with an aim to either generate fees or skim profits.

Those who profess to wanting bitcoin in an effort to escape the inflation of US currency, skirt taxes, or achieve anonymity are either liars or delusional fools. Bitcoin and its crypto brethren are all perfectly trackable and taxable by government agents, providing neither a tax benefit nor secrecy. Bitcoin and all crypto is, quite possibly, the greatest scam ever foisted upon humanity, perhaps only exceeded by Big Pharma's "safe and effective" drugs and the global pandemic scare of 2020-21.


Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 84.03; last week: 83.88

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 8/23: $2,548.70
Gold price 8/30: $2,536.00
Gold price 9/6: $2,526.80
Gold price 9/13: $2,606.20
Gold price 9/20: $2,647.10

Silver price 8/23: $30.29
Silver price 8/30: $29.25
Silver price 9/6: $28.27
Silver price 9/13: $31.07
Silver price 9/20: $31.50

It's probably easy to ignore the gains gold has made over the past year, from $1,831 on October 5, 2023, to $2,647 as of Friday's New York close, but it is impossible to deny them.

Gold and silver have laid bare the bubble conditions and the machinations of the Fed and the unstable banking system, hurtling full speed ahead toward the inevitable crash and repudiation of all the systems and chains and compulsions of the fiat currency construct. The BRICS are urging it forward just as much as the Fed and government overspending. It is fast approaching and not one man, woman, or child can escape it.

Gold, silver, land and other hard assets will cushion the blow. Even a solid horde of cash may be a form of depression insurance should the bottom fall out of markets or the world gets blown to bits by madmen with guns and bombs and no reluctance to employ them.

Keep stacking regardless of price, which will become irrelevant in due time.

Year-to-date, gold is up 27.63%. Silver is ahead by 31.57%. Futher gains are to be expected this year and next and probably beyond that. Measure in ounces or grams rather than dollars or euros because those yardsticks are being sytematically downsized, sliced into ever smaller and smaller units.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price Low High Average Median
1 oz silver coin: 36.61 50.00 40.46 39.50
1 oz silver bar: 33.65 45.00 40.66 41.00
1 oz gold coin: 2,703.49 2,895.00 2,757.68 2,744.45
1 oz gold bar: 2,650.94 2,759.99 2,723.40 2,730.34

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) shot higher this week, to $40.41, a gain of $1.22 from the September 15 price of $39.19 per troy ounce.

Premiums on silver have been coming off for weeks despite rumors of supply shortages. Gold premiums remain in place at about $100 above the COMEX continuous contract for one-ounce coins and $80 for one-ounce bars.

WEEKEND WRAP

The week just past was momentous, though hardly the conclusion to anything, but rather a beginning of what may be considered the ultimate end. Outstanding U.S. debts of $35 trillion and trillions more in unfunded liabilities cannot withstand higher rates for long, That's already established. The consideration that they can withstand interest of anything beyond zero is worthwhile contemplation.

In other times, the future used to be full of hope and promise. Today it is filled with apprehension, apathy, and loathing. The world can do better, but, those who lead the way need to take a step back, something they will not do willingly. At the end of days, the will be forced to accept a reality different from the one they envision, lest humankind forever be chained and imprisoned.


At the Close, Friday, September 13, 2024:
Dow: 42,063.36, +38.17 (+0.09%)
NASDAQ: 17,948.32, -65.66 (-0.36%)
S&P 500: 5,702.55, -11.09 (-0.19%)
NYSE Composite: 19,373.74, -58.68 (-0.30%)

For the Week:
Dow: +669.58 (+1.62%)
NASDAQ: +264.34 (+1.49%)
S&P 500: +76.53 (+1.36%)
NYSE Composite: +252.24 (+1.32%)
Dow Transports: +25.39 (+0.16%)



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idleguy.com October 2024
IdleGuy.com October 2024, Vol. 1 #9