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Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.
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Friday, October 3, 2025, 9:04 am ET
Editor's Note: Just about everything in this post relates to information gleaned from the video at the end. It is the intent of Money Daily to present information that is honest and truthful. Because of the complexities of the background information, some of what is presented in context may or may not be entirely correct, but, it is intended to supply an explanation of the current conditions as accurately as possible. Readers should be advised, as always, to do their own due diligence. Well, everything in The United States of America Unincorporated appears to be just going swimmingly, and, that's because the "government shutdown" pertains to only the United States Incorporated Municipal Government based in Washington, D.C. Pay attention to the names and capitalization of the "t" or "T" in "the" or "The" because it's important. See the video below for (some) clarification. It's indeed confusing. In any case, the federal government, which is "the United States Incorporated Municipal Government" is what's supposedly shut down. If that is the case, the actual The United States - composed of the 50 individual sovereign states should be in charge of the affairs of the country. Being that the states themselves have become, quite literally and incorrectly, vassals of the federal government, the situation has become quite dicey and explains why President Trump was able to withold $18 billion in infrastructure funds from New York along with millions in counterterrorism funding for New York City. If the "government" is shut down, how is it that Trump can do this? Simply, the United States Incorporated Municipal Government Shutdown, aka the federal government, isn't actually shut down, it is just operating with limited funds. Trump's withholding of funds to states, non-payment of essential workers and furloughs of roughly 750,000 non-essential employees are within his bailiwick. The president must do what he can to preserve funds in order to pay current bills, so, expect more of this kind of activity the longer the shutdown lasts. If the government cannot find a way to resolve itself, it will indeed become bankrupt and will default on all kinds of contractual obligations like paying interest on loans, which is probably at the very root of this operation. As far as can be told, if the federal government, as it is currently constituted, defaults on obligations, the federal government, unable to function as an ongoing entity, will cease to exist, and then, and only then, will The United States of America Unincorporated be able to rightfully return to operation of the country under business entities known as the States of America Unincorporated Confederation and the United States Unincorporated Federal Republic, which have not bene functional since the Civil War. If, at this point, you're confused, that's entirely understandable. The video below explains much of this, but, it's only a starting point. Money Daily is committed to educating itself and its readers, though the process in this time of crisis - and, despite outward appearances, this is a crisis, a constitutional crisis, though which one, of the three that exist, is uncertain - is bound to be laborious and sometimes veer off into unknown territories of knowledge. Whatever the case, this is the understanding of what's currently underway, and, it may actually have a positive end game. The shutdown was seemingly engineered by the Senate. By failing to approve the bill forwarded by the House, lacking the 60 votes need to overcome a filibuster, they set the stage for the government to operate without funding, curtailing the ability to appropriate funds to the various agencies. While the government can operate only on funds currently in the coffers of the U.S. Treasury, borrowing, via auctions of treasury bills, notes, or bonds, would be a moot point until funding is approved. The money may be there, but it cannot be dispensed. It's like a father holding his son's allowance until he finishes mowing the lawn and taking out the trash. The money's there. It's just not going to be doled out (appropriated). The long game in this shutdown drama (we hope) is for the government to eventually default, or, at least, judging by the actions of the president, Senate, and the House, that's the impression. The government is purposely destroying itself, or, as the case may be, the part of it that has usurped power since the Civil War. Bear in mind that President Trump is trying to withhold funds from states as much as he can, in effect, saving what's already been approved by congress from being spent. He will need that money to operate those parts of the government that he chooses to keep functioning. Additionally, nothing is going to happen until both houses of congress are back in session, because they need, at some point, to work out an funding package, or, at least that's the optics at present. Whether that is the master plan - to default - is not presently discernible, but, since neither house will be in session until Monday, October 6, when the Senate returns, the shutdown will last at least through this weekend. On Tuesday, October 7, the House reconvenes and will be in session, along with the Senate until Friday, October 10, according to Roll Call's handy congressional calendar [PDF]. In the meantime, life goes on in the markets with or without government interference. The usual first Friday of the month Non-farm Payroll numbers will not be available today, since the BLS is one of the agencies not currently operational. It's probably good timing, since the report for September, despite having its usual unreliable data, was likely to be somewhat distressing, showing the country actually losing jobs rather than creating them. For what it's worth, investors will have to fall back to the ADP monthly employment report, issued on Wednesday, for guidance concerning the current employment picture. ADP's September report was less-than-encouraging, showing a loss of 32,000 jobs in the private sector. Additionally, ADP conducted a preliminary re-benchmarking of the National Employment Report based on full-year 2024 results from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), resulting in a reduction of 43,000 jobs in the September report while revising August 2025 from 54,000 to -3,000. Just like that, 97,000 jobs went "poof." Wall Street, whistling past the grave as it always does, completely ignored the implications of a shrinking labor force and powered to record highs again on Thursday, focusing on the AI hype machine to keep stocks floating. It's worth pointing out that while AI promises all manner of improvements to human existence, little has been achieved other than big tech companies like Google, Microsoft, Apple, et. al., promising to spend $$ billions on infrastructure including massive server farms and power generating facilities. Implementation of AI as the entry point to search engines, particularly Bing and Google, have served only to privide dodgy information and anger a horde of webmasters who feel they are not being compensated for information they've provided. Stocks have performed admirably in the face of the government shutdown. Through Thursday's close, the Dow is up 272 points, NASDAQ ahead by 360, and the S&P up 71. The S&P set another record high close on Thursday, sending the Shiller PE (CAPE) to 40.08, the second-highest level on record. Other than being hammered down on the COMEX twice this week, first, on Tuesday overnight and again, savagely, on Thursday during New York hours, gold and silver also advanced nicely through the carnage. An hour before the opening bell for stocks, gold is $3,885 and silver, $47.48 per ounce. Price gains in precious metals recently have been satisfactory, but may be presaging the kind of wild swings that will happen when currencies begin failing, which could be soon, as in months, not years, though those kinds of events are usually delayed by major wars, which the world - at least from a Western perspective - seems hellbent towards. Bitcoin received quite a boost through the week of the shutdown, adding about $8,000 to quote over $120,000, the highest in six weeks. Similar to the AI chorus of cheerleading, bitcoin proponents continue to harp on about how the vaporware that is crypto is undervalued, some suggesting bitcoin's true price should be upwards of $200,000 or $1 million. These dreamers may actually be proven right in the case of a government default. WTI crude oil is having a rough week, with the price per barrel looking to fall below $60, a weekly decline of about 10 percent. The combination of an enormous supply glut, slack or declining demand, and higher production quotas for OPEC are beginning to be realized. WTI at $50-55 or lower looks to be dead ahead. With all of the current confusion, headwinds and tailwinds, stock futures are set up for a positive, though sliding toward unchanged, open. Dow futures: +62; NASDAQ futures: +14, S&P futures: +4. OK, ready to get really confused about what's really going on in the country known as The United States of America? Watch...
At the Close, Thursday, October 2, 2025:
Thursday, October 2, 2025, 9:12 am ET In September and August 2000, the dividend yield on the S&P 500 fell to an all-time low of 1.11%. As of September 30, that figure is 1.19%. In layman's terms, that means if you invested in a company with that kind of yield, outside of gains in the share price, it would take about 84 years to get your money back. If one were to reinvest the dividends annually, it might lower the time period to about 58 years. Naturally, one would hope the stock increased in value by many multiples over that period of time. The average share of stock traded on the NYSE is held for something like 17 minutes. Dividend yield matters only to people or institutions with extremely long investment horizons, but this extremely low level of dividend yield for S&P stocks only serves to feed into the theory that stocks are completely, brazenly, overvalued and this is the largest ever bubble that's ever existed. In the current environment, dividends don't matter. The Bloomberg market wrap headline after Wednesday's close: Stocks Hit Record as Traders Shrug Off US Shutdown. That pretty much says it all. This government "shutdown", of whatever one wishes to call it, is a very large charade, engineered by the very people elected by the U.S. citizenry to keep the government operational and providing benefits to the country. OK, you can stop laughing now. Everybody knows that congress and the president are more interested in passing legislation that benefits themselves first, their cronies and campaign contributors second, and Joe and Jane Sixpack, last. Whatever it is they (the uniparty) expect to accomplish with this deep state deep fake, Wall Street seems to be all in favor of it, because, rather than selling stocks in a kind of safety trade, stocks hit record highs on Day 1 of the Great Government Shutdown of 2025. So, when people working in the private sector recieve their paychecks today, tomorrow, or next week, they need to ask these stupid questions: 1. If the government is shut down, where does the tax taken out of my paycheck go? 2. Under what authority are they taking money out of my paycheck? Answers: 1. Nobody knows. 2. You let them. There are no stupid questions; just stupid people asking. Day Two of the government shutdown starts with stock futures diverging, though the NASDAQ futures are soaring, up 140 points at 8:30 am ET. S&P futures are up 17, while Dow futures are down 21. Gold and silver essentially treaded water overnight. Earlier this morning, gold trade as high as $3,916.80 on the COMEX and silver hit $47.80. WTI crude has been beaten down recently, reflecting revisions by the EIA showing a sizable glut of crude on the market and OPEC raising production quotas. WTI dipped briefly below $61/barrel this morning and is trading just above that level an hour prior to the cash open for stocks. Gas prices around the U.S. are slightly higher today, skewed by the West coast states of California, Oregon, and Washington, which are all averaging over $4.00. If those are excluded the national average - today at $3.16 - would be under $3.00. States in the Southeast, in particular, have been below $3.00 for a year or longer. When WTI finally catches down into the 50s, gas prices in places like Mississippi and Oklahoma may fall below $2 per gallon. Despite claims of the horrors of a government shutdown, nothing seemed to change noticeably on Wednesday nor early Thursday morning. There were no plane crashes other than a runway collision at low speed, no injuries other than the aircraft, at LaGuardia Wednesday night. Mail was delivered mostly on time. Amtrak trains ran late, as usual. Social Security checks went out, food stamps were redeemed around the country. The Government Shutdown of 2025 has the potential of receiving the "nothingburger" moniker, except for Trump threatening to permanently fire hundreds of thousands of useless, non-essential government workers "in a day or two" according to the White House. Democrats don't seem particularly interested in getting the government re-opened any time soon. Wall Street is juiced again over AI, the hype machine working overtime. Trillions are going into technology. Apparently, the billionaire oligarchs believe AI will bring massive improvements to humanity. Green lights, everywhere. What could go wrong? At the Close, Wednesday, October 1, 2025:Dow: 46,441.10, +43.21 (+0.09%) NAADAQ: 22,755.16, +95.15 (+0.42%) S&P 500: 6,711.20, +22.74 (+0.34%) NYSE Composite: 21,640.00, +75.46 (+0.35%)
Wednesday, October 1, 2025, 9:24 am ET Though they made it look like they were trying by voting on both the Democrat proposal and House bill late Tuesday, the Senate failed to advance any bill, effectively leaving the federal government temporarily unfunded, shutting down the government for the first time, ironically, since Trump was president back in his first term (2018-19). At the stroke of midnight, the government officially shut down, partially. Many so-called "essential services" remain open. The government shutdown is likely have a dramatic impact on the U.S. economy. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that a shutdown could furlough roughly 750,000 federal workers each day, resulting in non-payment of about $400 million in wages daily. Employees deemed essential, such as those in national security, law enforcement and air traffic control, would be required to report to work without pay until funding resumes. The U.S. Postal Service remains open. Social Security checks and Past shutdowns have led to closed national parks, slowed passport processing, delayed small-business loans, disruptions in food safety inspections, and delays and/or flight cancllations at airports around the country. Government closures have cost the economy billions of dollars though employees who are temporarily laid off eventually recieve their back pay. Thus, a government shutdown is like a paid holiday for many federal employees, except that they get paid when they return to work. This one has a bit of a different odor to it. Democrats say they are digging in their heels over cuts to Medicaid that would be of benefit to illegal migrants and make COVID-era Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced premium tax credits permanent. They are looking to restore $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion cut from Medicaid and Obamacare programs that were lost via the passage of President Trump's "big, beautiful bill" this past summer. For their part, Republicans aren't budging either. They insist that spending taxpayer dollars on illegals is wasteful and treats taxpayers poorly. There are few people who would disagree with them on that point, yet, Democrats are insistent on restoring the funds. It feels more like a "uniparty" set-up, wherein both parties made purposeful arrangements to shut down the government and bust the economy. It won't take much to send the U.S. economy into a tailspin. Between the usual infighting in congress, Trump's tariffs, the worsening national employment situation, high inflation, and the general committment to continue funding killing fields in Gaza and Ukraine, a few weeks of the U.S. government without money, off its training wheels, so to speak, should tank it heading into the fourth quarter, which began Wednesday, along with the government's 2026 fiscal year. While that may sound conspiratorial, the bigger picture suggests that is exactly what is happening. Even the Democrats cannot be so blatantly ignorant to shut down the government over funding for illegals that expire at the end of the year. As it stands, the proposal passed by the House and declined by the Senate would only have funded the government through November 21, or just more than seven weeks. Both sides will try to lay blame for the shutdown on the opposing party, but the truth is that Republicans and Democrats alike are responsible for the massive deficits of the past decade and nobody in congress is willing to make the necessary cuts to government that the country needs to at least cut back deficit spending to something more reasonable, like $500 billion, rather than the projected $2 trillion the government will overspend in fiscal 2026. Elected officials are sent to Washington to work for the people, but, for far too long, members of congress have treated themselves to the largesse of government through gross abuses, graft, and corruption, at the people's expense. There's a growing chorus of everyday Americans that wish the government would close up shop and stay closed. They want government to get out of the way and let Americans fend for themselves, without the overwhelmeing burdens of taxes and regulations that stand in the way of growth and prosperity for hundreds of millions of people. It's important to keep in mind that the government shutdown, all the wailing and gnashing of teeth in the media, all the finger-pointing and recriminations are the work of the government itself and they should bear responsibility for whatever befalls the nation, no matter how severe the punishment. In the meantime, Wall Street chose to sail past the crisis on Tuesday as if nothing was happening. Wednesday, the first day of the country run off its rails, effectively without a government, might begin to reveal a much different tone. There are some aspects to the government shutdown that are just plain silly. For instance, people living in the Eastern or Central time zones should appreaciate the fact that the governent shut down in Washington, D.C. before the Dodgers took the field in Los Angeles for Game One of the National League Wild Card series with the Cincinnati Reds. It's so typically American to just plain not give a damn about politicians when there's a sports game at the same time. One would suppose that if the Russians nuked New York City, all the NFL teams except the Giants and Jets and whichever teams they were supposed to play would just take the field as usual on Sunday, Monday, and even Thursday night. Whether or not one considers that dark humor amusing isn't the point. The point is that Americans, in their own self-abusing manners, prefer athletes to politicians almost every time. Equally amusing and hinting that this shutdown was planned by both parties well in advance is that the House of Representatives isn't even in session [PDF] until October 7, and the Senate, after a single session on Wednesday (incidentally, Yom Kippur for all you Jew haters and anti-Semites) doesn't return until October 6. So, even if the Senate magically came to some kind of deal, the House couldn't even muster a up quorum. The crooks in congress can't even engineer a solid false flag crisis anymore, proving just how incompetent they really are. For those wondering what's open, what's closed and what else, Politico offers a fairly extensive review. As the opening bell approaches, stock futures are trending lower. Dow: -130; S&P: -28; NASDAQ: -117. Gold is continuing to make all-time highs, around $3,897.70 at 9:00 am ET. Silver also ramped higher overnight, settling in around $47.50 prior to the stock market open. J.P. Morgan has published a $6,000 target for gold, while Jefferies has gone even further, predicting $6,500. In all honesty, gold and silver have no limits. As long as governments continue debaing their currencies, the prices of precious metals will continue to rise in relation to them. In the end, when all fiat currencies fail - and they will - gold will be revalued at something in the range of $20-30,000 and silver will be easily triple digits, probably $400-$500 per ounce. Get ready for it. The current gains are nothing to when the final reset occurs. The shutdown could last days, weeks, or months, depending on how deeply the government wishes to harm itself and its citizens. At the Close, Tuesday, September 30, 2025:Dow: 46,397.89, +81.82 (+0.18%) NASDAQ: 22,660.01, +68.86 (+0.30%) S&P 500: 6,688.46, +27.25 (+0.41%) NYSE Composite: 21,564.54, +66.99 (+0.31%)
Tuesday, September 30, 2025, 9:28 am ET All indications point to the last day of September and the first day of October to be significant dates in American history. Events are converging toward some kind of radical shift or change which only those at the very epitome of the global power structure comprehend because they are the very ones driving the events. The federal government's 2025 fiscal year ends on the 30th of September, today. The 2026 fiscal year begins on October 30, tomorrow. Speculation has run the gamut on what's to occur from a government shutdown to the launch of World War III. Tuesday's meeting of top U.S. commanders with the rank of brigadier general and the naval equivalent, admiral, or higher, at Quntico, Virginia is also driving fears that President Trump - who is reportedly attending the meeting - and Department of Defense (recently changed by executive order to Department of War) head Pete Hegseth will be informing these high-ranking officers of battle plans military strategies. While the gathering of top military personnel is not unusual, the timing, haste, and degree of this one has raised eyebrows among military observers and the general public. The White House has commented on the meeting, downplaying its importance. However, if anything has been learned from the first eight months of Trump's presidency, it thrives on secrecy and deception, so, the idea that this high-level meeting is about morale or downsizing or anything remotely ordinary is highly unlikely. Something's going on, and the public isn't allowed ot know what it is, which generally means that it's significant. With a government shutdown at midnight on Tuesday a virtual lock, the military meeting could signal the beginning of martial law in the United States, which, considering how Trump has called for national guard troops to begin restoring order in big cities - from Chicago, to Portland, to Memphis - may not be so far-fetched. Of course, it could be nothing more than posturing, to satiate allies in Europe and Asia (Japan, South Korea, Australia), but it doesn't appear to be something to be taken lightly. In case the government does shut down - and that seems to be where this is headed ater Trump met with the leaders of both parties from the House and Senate on Monday and no progress was reported - here's a salient question that every American should ponder:
If the government, already $37 trillion in debt, does shut down at 00:00:01 Wednesday morning and has no funding for further operations, what authority do they actually wield? As Day Zero unfolds, it might be useful to keep a sharp eye on the stock and bond markets, especially the latter, since that is where all the truly big money changes hands. If yields begin to ramp higher, it might be a signal that money is fleeing even the non-risk asset of treasury bills, notes and bonds. Declines on the stock market could also be a telling sign on Tuesday, though there is the distinct possibility that little will happen until Wednesday, when and if a government shutdown becomes a reality. Yields on longer-dated maturities - 10s, 20s, and 30s, were lower on Monday and are trending lower early Tuesday, with the 10-year at 4.12%, down from 4.20% at the close, Friday. Monday's action in stocks was nothing unusual, with all the major indices posting small gains. Other than the S&P closing with a number bearing the mark of the beast (6,661.21), there was nothing exciting or ominous about the stock market. In the face of what may be cataclysm, everything appeared calm, which, in an of itself, should serve as ample warning. Heading into Tuesday's open, stock futures are down marginally. Dow: -55; NASDAQ: -18; S&P: -8. Gold and silver are off their recent highs, with gold nearly hitting $3,900 overnight, now leveled off around $3,842.40, and silver, having shot up as high as $47.34, is down around a dollar, at $46.35. WTI crude is well off recent fluffy highs, heading below $62/barrel. Keep in mind that, even though Trump wanted to be known as a "peace president", he's been anything but. His boasting about ending seven wars (please, name three) in the face of continuing the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, falls on deaf ears. Stay focused. Wait, watch, see what develops.
At the Close, Monday, September 29, 2025:
Sunday, September 28, 2025, 12:30 pm ET The U.S. government continues to flirt with disaster, as congress and the president play chicken over a possible shutdown, set to take effect at 12:01 a.m. ET on Wednesday. Barring congressional action and the president's signature, "non-essential" agencies could be shutdown until a deal is reached. Most people would experience little change, unless it gets serious. The Postal Service, for instance, would continue to operate. Social Security checks would continue to go out on time. SNAP food stamp benefits would arrive on schedule. If the politicians in Washington were serious, everything would be shut down. The idea that paying retirees and doling out food stamps is an "essential" function belies the truth about Washington money schemes. A government shutdown could delay Friday's scheduled jobs report, due out Friday at 8:30 am ET. That could cause some chaotic trading and speculation on whether or not the U.S. jobs market is in good health or not, the latest barrage of data and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent conversations suggesting that there is trouble brewing in employment. Here's a rundown on what gets shut down and what remains open. Financial markets will no doubt react to whatever the government decides to do. A short-term shutdown or a week or less wouldn't have much effect on stocks, generally. If the shutdown - which appears to be about a 70-80% certainty at this point - lasts longer, Wall Street might consider it something unwanted and stocks could be damaged, short term, especially those that rely on the federal government for business. Defensive sectors like consumer staples, utilities, and gold stand to outperform, while industrials and defense contractors face greater uncertainty according to Steven Cress, Head of Quantitative Strategies at Seeking Alpha, who offers an interesting market view on shutdown dynamics. There's no bottom line on how a possible shutdown will turn out. Best strategists are suggesting to be defensive, buy some protection (put options), but try to remain calm as there will no doubt be plenty of noise with which to contend. Much of it will be meaningless. Some elements of this shutdown, such as the president promising to fire or permanently layoff (RIF, reduction in force) workers furloughed in case of a shutdown might make this shutdown different from those which came before, which amounted to a slight disturbance before markets got back to business as usual. Stocks Friday's boost on the majors didn't quite make up for the losses incurred earlier in the week. In an odd reversal, the Dow Jones Transportation Average was the only index to show weekly gains. All the others were down, though only slightly, wiht the most severe (if one can call it that) was on the NASDAQ, which fell 147.41 points (-0.65%). Thus, stocks ended the week at an almost neutral stance. Given the general trend is for higher prices, overvaluation and fear of a government shutdown may keep a lid on things next week until there comes a resolution, if any. If economic data is delayed due to the shutdown, it would leave some analysts "flying blind," though, if the recent discoveries of just how flawed government data has become is any indication, the lack of government figures might force some players to actually do a little due diligence on individual stocks and various sectors. Friday's Non-farm payroll report is the big cahuna of the week, though, as mentioned above, it may not make an appearance. Otherwise, third quarter earnings won't be out until late in the week after next, beginning, as usual, with an assortment of banking stocks. There may be some consolidation in light of the current conditions. Tech, consumer discretionary, and industrials are likely to see some sideways movement. The Shiller PE (CAPE) closed out the week at 39.84, near its recent high, but more than likely to get a boost when, and if, congress decides to keep the grift going, or, in layman's terms, keep the government open. Treasury Yield Curve Rates Date 1 Mo 1.5 mo 2 Mo 3 Mo 4 Mo 6 Mo 1 Yr 08/22/2025 4.47 4.38 4.36 4.27 4.21 4.08 3.87 08/29/2025 4.41 4.34 4.30 4.23 4.17 4.01 3.83 09/05/2025 4.29 4.24 4.24 4.07 4.05 3.85 3.65 09/12/2025 4.24 4.24 4.20 4.08 4.02 3.83 3.66 09/19/2025 4.19 4.16 4.14 4.03 3.98 3.81 3.60 09/26/2025 4.22 4.20 4.17 4.02 4.00 3.83 3.67 Date 2 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 7 Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 30 Yr 08/22/2025 3.68 3.64 3.76 3.98 4.26 4.84 4.88 08/29/2025 3.59 3.58 3.68 3.92 4.23 4.86 4.92 09/05/2025 3.51 3.48 3.59 3.80 4.10 4.72 4.78 09/12/2025 3.56 3.52 3.63 3.81 4.06 4.65 4.68 09/19/2025 3.57 3.56 3.68 3.88 4.14 4.71 4.75 09/26/2025 3.63 3.66 3.76 3.96 4.20 4.74 4.77 There was some movement in the middle, or belly, of the curve this week, with a minor buyer's strike on 3s, 5s, and 7s, up 10, 8, and 8 basis points, respectively. Overall, if rumors of foreign investors opting out of treasuries in search of gold are true, the slack has been taken up by primary dealers and, increasingly, stablecoin outfits. Spreads on 2s-10s were unmoved at +57 and remained elevated on full spectrum, at +55. Not much to see here as the Fed and its proxies are heading toward some level of curve control, with occasional forays into the mix by the U.S. Treasury. In case of a shutdown, don't expect Treasury to be doing much buying. Secretary Bessent will be busy keeping up with extraordinary measures to pay current and ongoing obligations. One bright side to a government shutdown, if it becomes elongated, is that the world's public might get a real taste of just how tragically fragile the U.S. treasury market and the government has become. Spreads: 2s-10s 9/15/2023: -69 9/22/2023: -66 9/29/2023: -44 10/06/2023: -30 10/13/2023: -41 10/20/2023: -14 10/27/2023: -15 11/03/2023: -26 11/10/2023: -43 11/17/2023: -44 11/24/2023: -45 12/01/2023: -34 12/08/2023: -48 12/15/2023: -53 12/22/2023: -41 12/29/2023: -35 1/5/2024: -35 1/12/2024: -18 1/19/2024: -24 1/26/2024: -19 2/2/2024: -33 2/9: -31 2/16: -34 2/23: -41 3/1: -35 3/8: -39 3/15: -41 3/22: -37 3/28: -39 4/5: -34 4/12: -38 4/19: -35 4/26: -29 5/3: -31 5/10: -37 5/17: -39 5/24: -47 5/31: -38 6/7: -44 6/14: -47 6/21: -45 6/28: -35 7/5: -32 7/12: -27 7/19: -24 7/26: -16 8/2: -08 8/9: -11 8/16: -17 8/23: -09 8/30: 00 9/6: +06 9/13: +09 9/20: +18 9/27: +20 10/4: +5 10/11: +13 10/18: +13 10/25: +14 11/1: +16 11/8: +5 11/15: +12 11/22: +4 11/29: +5 12/6: +5 12/13: +15 12/20: +22 12/27: +31 1/3: +32 1/10: +37 1/17: +34 1/24: +36 1/31: +36 2/7: +20 2/14: +21 2/21: +23 2/28: +25 3/7: +33 3/14: +29 3/21: +31 3/28: +38 4/4: +33 4/11: +52 4/17: +53 4/25: +55 5/2: +50 5/9: +49 5/16: +45 5/23: +51 5/30: +52 6/6: +48 6/13: +45 6/20: +48 6/27: +56 7/3: +47 7/11: +53 7/18: +56 7/25: +49 8/1: +54 8/8: +51 8/15: +58 8/22: +58 8/29: +64 9/5: +59 9/12: +50 9/19: +57 9/26: +57 Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years) 9/15/2023: -109 9/22/2023: -99 9/29/2023: -82 10/06/2023: -64 10/13/2023: -82 10/20/2023: -47 10/27/2023: -54 11/03/2023: -76 11/10/2023: -80 11/17/2023: -93 11/24/2023: -95 12/01/2023: -105 12/08/2023: -123 12/15/2023: -154 12/22/2023: -149 12/29/2023: -157 1/5/2024: -133 1/12/2024: -135 1/19/2024: -118 1/26/2024: -116 2/2/2024: -127 2/9: -117 2/16: -103 2/23: -112 3/1: -121 3/8: -125 3/15: -109 3/22: -112 3/28: -115 4/5: -93 4/12: -87 4/19: -77 4/26: -70 5/3: -85 5/10: -87 5/17: -94 5/24: -99 5/31: -83 6/7: -92 6/14: -113 6/21: -103 6/28: -96 7/5: -101 7/12: -108 7/19: -103 7/26: -104 8/2: -143 8/9: -131 8/16: -138 8/23: -141 8/30: -121 9/6: -125 9/13: -117 9/20: -80 9/27: -80 10/4: -75 10/11: -58 10/18: -54 10/25: -38 11/1: -18 11/8: -23 11/15: -10 11/22: -12 11/29: -40 12/6: -23 12/13: +18 12/20: +29 12/27: +38 1/3: +38 1/10: +54 1/17: +41 1/24: +40 1/31: +36 2/7: +32 2/14: +32 2/21: +31 2/28: +13 3/7: +24 3/14: +25 3/21: +23 3/28: +26 4/4: +5 4/11: +38 4/17: +44 4/25: +40 5/2: +41 5/9: +46 5/16: +52 5/23: +68 5/30: +59 6/6: +69 6/13: +67 6/20: +69 6/27: +66 7/3: +51 7/11: +59 7/18: +65 7/25: +55 8/1: +32 8/8: +37 8/15: +44 8/22: +41 8/29: +51 9/5: +49 9/12: +40 9/19: +54 9/26: +55 Oil/Gas Somewhat to the countercyclical, WTI crude oil moved higher, closing out the week in New York at $65.19, with a peak on Friday of $66.34 before settling out. Friday's price was up sharply from last week's $62.36. With everybody from the Saudis to Russians to U.S. shale producers drilling full bore, this week's gains are probably going to be short-lived as there is no indication that there's any shortage of oil or distillates anywhere. Gas prices dropped seven cents from last week, the national average now $3.10, according to Gasbuddy.com. State-by-state numbers show California remaining on top, at $4.65 per gallon, followed closely by Washington ($4.56) and joined in the $4 club by Oregon ($4.19), though all three states showed moderating prices through the week. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma ($2.53) at a multi-month low, followed by Mississippi ($2.64) and Louisiana ($2.71). The Northeast remained above $3.00, with Virginia ($2.93), West Virginia ($2.96), Ohio ($2.86) and Kentucky ($2.78) bucking the trend. Indiana ($2.12), Illinois ($3.38) and Michigan ($3.00) form a $3-plus bloc. From Wisconsin ($2.83), Minnesota ($2.95) and North Dakota ($2.87) south, all states are sub-$3. Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in 25 states, up four from last week, concentrated in the South and Midwest with Ohio, Minnesota, Florida, and Colorado dropping below the line. The entire Southeast, out to New Mexico ($2.80) is under $3.00 a gallon. Gas in next door neighbor New Mexico is $3.57, making border hops appealing to cost-conscious drivers. Bitcoin This week: $109,980.20 Last week: $115,734.60 2 weeks ago: $115,368.20 6 months ago: $84,261.42 One year ago: $65,848.43 Five years ago: $11,367.93 The Ponzi has continues at stall speed, taking a slight hit this week. In case of a swoon in stocks and margin calls, the money to cover is going to come from bitcoin, not gold or silver, because, while precious metals have been on a tear, bitcoin has lagged severely, because it's not money and actually is just a clever math construct. Funds will be selling off bitcoin holdings faster than racehorses at Del Mar. Precious Metals Gold:Silver Ratio: 81.73; last week: 85.76 Per COMEX continuous contracts: Gold price 8/29: $3,516.10 Gold price 9/5: $3,639.80 Gold price 9/12: $3,680.70 Gold price 9/19: $3,719.40 Gold price 9/26: $3,789.80 Silver price 8/29: $40.75 Silver price 9/5: $41.51 Silver price 9/12: $42.68 Silver price 9/19: $43.37 Silver price 9/26: $46.37 Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded): Item/Price Low High Average Median 1 oz silver coin: 46.30 58.50 51.66 49.48 1 oz silver bar: 48.00 58.95 53.52 53.49 1 oz gold coin: 3,898.77 4,040.69 3,956.08 3,933.82 1 oz gold bar: 3,873.95 3,947.82 3,916.97 3,923.85 The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) remained raced to a new record high since Money Daily began recording in 2021, of $52.04, a massive gain of $3.21 cents from the September 21 price of $48.83 per troy ounce. Gold and silver continued to move higher, with silver leading the way over the near term. Year-to-date, gold is up 44.23%; silver, 59.58% after this week's huge move higher. Silver is obviously in the cat-bird seat, having been mercilessly suppressed for decades and especially the past 14 years, it's finally about to go vertical. The all-time highs are approaching, but, understand, that level above $49 is not inflation-adjusted, so this recent move is probably just the beginning. $50 is the obvious target and once it heads beyond that there is little to no resistance. Wiht financial advisors now putting clients into gold allocations of anywhere from five to 20% of their portfolios, prices are going in one direction only and silver, the choice of speculators, will likely lead. $60, $80, and eventually triple-digit silver is no longer pie-in-the-sky wishful thinking, but quickly becoming a reality. The gold:silver ratio of 81.73 this week, down from highs above 100 earlier this year is still complete fiction. All indications are for a steep decline in the ratio as silver's value propositions and relationship to gold are re-discovered. According to investopedia:
For hundreds of years, the gold-silver ratio did not fluctuate much. The ratio was fixed by governments to keep their official currencies stable. Prepare to say goodbye to the COMEX and the London price fix. While they'll continue to operate, those old school pricing mechanisms are being gradually overtaken by honest price-setters with settlements in physical metal in Shanghai and soon, St. Petersburg and Dubai, as the West gives away authority to BRICS-related entities. Gold is already at record-high prices everywhere in the world. Silver will break through $50 an ounce soon enough, quite possibly by the end of the year. If silver reaches $50 before January 1, 2026, there's every possibility for $60 over the next year, as that would amount to a mere 20% gain. WEEKEND WRAP Keep some powder dry and buy protection. Puts and bullets are preferred. At the Close, Friday, September 26, 2025: Dow: 46,247.29, +299.97 (+0.65%) NASDAQ: 22,484.07, +99.37 (+0.44%) S&P 500: 6,643.70, +38.98 (+0.59%) NYSE Composite: 21,477.51, +140.52 (+0.66%) For The Week: Dow: -67.08 (-0.15%) NASDAQ: -147.41 (-0.65%) S&P 500: -20.66 (-0.31%) NYSE Composite: -16.46 (-0.08%) Dow Transports: +119.01 (+0.77%)
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