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Weekly Survey of Gold and Silver Prices
Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark
Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.
PRIOR COVERAGE:
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BLS October Non-Farm Payrolls: 150,000; In Line with Estimates; Apple Warning Not Significant Friday, November 3, 2023, 8:46 am ET Following Thursday's torrid session, Apple (AAPL) dumped some cold water on the rabid dogs of Wall Street. The company released fiscal fourth quarter results which were better than expected, but warned on fourth quarter sales revenue. Apple reported earnings per share of $1.46 on revenue of $89.5 billion. Wall Street had expected EPS of $1.39 and revenue of $89.3 billion, according to estimates from Bloomberg. The quarter was the fourth consecutive that saw revenue down from the year-ago period. In the aftermath of the results, Apple stock was trading down 2.5-3.0%. Later on Thursday evening, the former wonderkind of crypto, Sam Bankman-Fried, was found guilty on all counts, facing more than 100 years in prison for charges ranging from fraud to conspiracy to commit money laundering. Despite the sudden rash of downbeat news, stocks have enjoyed the best week since April, with the Dow up some 1421 points, a gain of more than four percent. The other indices have also managed to put the past three months - all losers - behind them. The S&P 500 is up 200 points (4.87%), while the NASDAQ has added 651 points, for a 5.15% gain. The NYSE is up 656, (4.48%). Even the beaten down Dow Transportation Average showed signs of life, adding 729 points for a gain of 5.38%. Overnight, Asian stocks shrugged off Apple's warning. The NIKKEI finished up more than one percent. The Hang Seng sported a 3.5% gain. In Europe, the mood was less celebratory, with the major indices hugging the flat line. Bitcoin, after soaring to $35,812 on Thursday has seen a precipitous decline, hovering around $34,240 at 8:00 am ET. WTI crude remains in the doldrums, content with a price of $83/barrel. Gold and silver are little changed in anticipation of the October non-farm payroll report, due out at 8:30 am ET from the BLS. Payrolls came out at 150,000, in line with estimates. The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.9%. Markets were hardly moved by what turns out to be a neutral figure, possibly towards a more dovish view from the Fed, which won't be urged to move rates higher based upon this data. Stock futures turned modestly upward on the release. Looks like a big week for the bulls.
At the Close, Thursday, November 2, 2023:
Thursday, November 2, 2023, 9:12 am ET As expected, the FOMC did not change the federal funds rate on Wednesday, instead opting to allow Fed Chairman Powell to more or less declare victory over inflation, keeping the overnight lending rate at 5.25-5.50%. Upon the no-decision decision, stocks took off towards the moon, a move that has continued overnight in futures markets. Earnings beats Thursday morning are adding fuel to the rally fire, as Palantir (PLTR) and Starbucks (SBUX) reported stellar third quarter earnings results. The stocks are up 17% and 11%, respectively, in pre-market trading. Payment processor, PayPal (PYPL) also had a strong third quarter, sending shares seven percent higher in pre-market trading. On the downside, Etsy (ETSY) missed earnings expectations and warned that fourth quarter sales would decline by roughly five to eight percent on a year-over-year basis. The stock was seen lower by five to six percent. Major indices around the world are all advancing. Asian stocks were uniformly higher overnight and European stocks are bounding higher, with France's CAC up nearly two percent and Germany's DAX higher by about 1.5%. From all appearances, the bears have been led into a dead end after three consecutive months of declines in stocks. November is off to a heady start. The NASDAQ has put on gains in each of the prior four sessions, looking to extend its winning streak to five, while the Dow and S&P have both gained in each session this week. Looks like fighting the tape will be a losing battle heading into Apple (AAPL) earnings after the close Thursday and Non-farm Payrolls Friday morning. Elsewhere, the Bank of England kept interest rates on hold (a continuing trend amongst central bankers), as did the ECB earlier this week. WTI crude oil simply cannot catch a bid, hitting a two-month low at $80.46 Wednesday afternoon. Gold and silver are well bid, with gold making another run at $2,000, currently testing at $1,998. Silver has regained some momentum, currently trading just below $23.20. Bitcoin has hit a high for 2023, pricing above $35,800 overnight before falling back to a range of $35,200-35,600. It is at its highest level since May, 2022.
At the Close, Wednesday, October 1, 2023:
Wednesday, November 1, 2023, 9:27 am ET It took a while for stocks to post the end-of-month "window dressing," but by the end of the day, all the major indices were sporting gains, albeit minor ones, as the rally extended for a second day (three straight for NASDAQ).
There wasn't much in the news or in earnings reports to catalyze a move higher. Other than the S&P, stocks were in the red most of the morning, but the afternoon brought in more With stocks prominent, gold, silver, and crude oil took a dive, with WTI crude diving to a low of $81.05 during the afternoon. Gold took a beating, falling from $2013.70 down to $1985.20, while silver dropped from a high of $23.41 to $22.77. Wednesday's pre-market appears to be taking a different tack heading for the FOMC rate announcement at 2:00 pm ET, with equity futures down and oil making significant headway, up $1.92 to $82.94 at 8:45 am ET. Gold and silver are inching higher, but oil's move is likely more affected by an increasing level of hostility in the Middle East. Arab countries and those aligned with the BRICS are complaining of Israel's indiscriminate bombing in Gaza, especially after an IDF bomb killed more than 50 civilians in a Palestinian refugee camp. Even CNN show host, Wolf Blitzer, was stunned by Israel's action. The IDF said the airstrike on the refugee camp killed Hamas's central Jabalya battalion, Ibrahim Biari, as well as a few other Hamas militants. IDF spokesman Lt. Col. Richard Hecht downplayed the tragedy, claiming that killing the Hamas operatives was more important than the civilian lives lost. The United States has already vetoed a security council resolution calling for a cease fire, and along with Israel and a handful of Pacific island nations, voted against a non-binding humanitarian cease-fire resolution which was adopted by the UN General Assembly on Friday by a vote of 120 to 14 with 45 abstentions. Apparently, Israel will not accept a cease fire on any terms. As the market open approaches, futures have recovered, with NASDAQ and S&P futures slightly to the upside and Dow futures down about 20 points. The jolt higher was likely caused by the release of the US Treasury's Quarterly Refunding, in which Treasury announced a lower amount of debt auctions than was anticipated, citing an unexpected increase in tax receipts in October (uh, huh, yeah, sure). Earlier, ADP released its October employment report, seeing only 113,000 jobs created by private firms during the month. Last month, ADP saw only 89,000 new jobs, but the BLS reported a massive gain of 336,000 in September. The BLS issues its non-farm payroll report on Friday, November 3. Treasury's announcement sent bond yields lower, with the 10-year note at 4.88%, and the VIX down below 18.00. Looks like Wall Street is getting ready for another rip-your-face-off rally, at least until the Fed announcement this afternoon.
At the Close, Tuesday, October 31, 2023:
Tuesday, October 31, 2023, 9:23 am ET Monday's Miracle rally was straight out of the conspiracy theory handbook. Stocks magically flew upwards at the opening bell and continued rising nearly non-stop throughout the session, ending near the highs of the day. There was no apparent reason for the uplift other than the fact that World War III had not already begun. It's been done before. It will be done again. The proximate cause for stock market rallies these days is coordinated buying by institutions. The big names in finance own most of the shares of the biggest corporations. Think Vanguard, BlackRock, State Street, Berkshire-Hathaway, et. al. It's not a very big club, and you're invited to play along. Such collusion - if one can call it such - is how the institutional investors became institutions. They trade as a consortium, boosting stocks when they please, selling them when they desire. At the end of the day, they will bid up stocks in which they already own majority interests, sell them off when the rubes (public) comes in and buys, generally at higher prices, or, in the case that they've bought low, hold them for long durations. At the very bottoms of crashes and bear markets, who do you think started buying stocks on the cheap? The people who have the resources and inside information, naturally. What happened Monday was nothing new. Days like that are designed to scare off shorts and accumulate stocks that insiders and executives have been selling. It's not the start of a new rally. It was a one-off, possibly extending into Tuesday, but more than likely to have, as they say, "no legs." Monday was good for finding some commentary that might be useful in understanding current market dynamics. The Motley Fool published five ominous charts that suggest the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ are still in bear markets. Did the "fools" suddenly have a "no Sh-t, Sherlock" moment? It appears so. Especially insightful are the charts depicting money supply growth and the one showing the 18 consecutive months of declines in the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators. The article somewhat points up the rationale for the equity declines since the end of July. Major stock indices don't just lose 10% of their values for no good reason. There are plenty of reasons why stocks have taken a hit since July, including the obvious ones: overvaluation, misguided government, huge debt piles everywhere, declining revenues and EPS, wars, and technical analysis. Elsewhere, across the pond, Neil McCoy Ward warns about UK city and county councils declaring bankruptcy. The video is embedded below. Also discovered was the fascinating work by David Rogers Webb, "The Great Taking", detailing how deeply central banks control currency, assets, and access to capital and how they've long planned to steal all of it. This disturbing tome can be downloaded for free at the author's website. It will be added to the IdleGuy library in short order. On a housekeeping note, Google apparently doesn't like us anymore. Revenue from the annoying, BS ads they display hit an all-time low on Monday, along with their recorded page views. It's not just us. Google seems to dislike any website that doesn't conform to their overarching rules for design, content, narrative, etc. Pretty much, they suck. Downtown Magazine Inc. will be parting ways with them in due time, likely before the end of the year. With a half hour to the opening bell, stock futures are falling fast from earlier levels. Overnight, Asian bourses were mixed, with the NIKKEI up and the Hang Seng down. European exchanges are sporting gains of between 0.40% to 1.0%. Such wins are largely inconsequential as most of Europe is being auctioned off to lowest bidders. It's a shame to witness the demise of Western Civilization in real time, but it's happening, thanks to leaders installed by the WEF executing "The Great Reset." Oil is lower since Israel is slow rolling its genocide in Gaza. Ukraine is a lost cause. Joe Biden is not the president of anything. It needs to be pointed out that Pfizer (PFE), the company that profited the most from the pandemic scam, on Tuesday reported a $2.38 billion quarterly loss, or 42 cents per share. Adjusted for one-time gains or losses, the company lost 17 cents per share, a much narrower loss than the 42 cents that Wall Street had expected, according to a survey of industry analysts by FactSet. Naturally, the loss is being described as "not as bad as expected," another shameless bit of media propaganda. Remember, Pfizer's clot shots were purchased by the government and distributed into arms of gullible Americans for free. It was nothing more than a government transfer of your money directly to the companies producing the ineffective "vaccines." Now, go get triple boosted and take your Paxlovid. Pfizer, and its CEO, Albert Bourla, need the money. Everything is just peachy. Short at will. Buy gold and silver. Good luck. Boo!
At the Close, Monday, October 30, 2023:
Sunday, October 29, 2023, 1:25 pm ET This action-packed week began with the suspicious timing of billionaire Bill Ackman announcing publicly that he was closing out his short positions in the treasury market and ended with the Dow Industrials sliding into a near-term correction. In between, amidst a bounty of high tech earnings reports, nothing was able to stem the incessant selling across the equity spectrum.
There are no signs of imminent recovery in any of the major indices. Worst of the bunch is the Dow Jones Transportation Average, which lost 6.19% this week, and is now near bear market territory, down 18.80% since July 28. It's worth noting that the 20-stock index rose from the May 26 closing price of 13,444.01 to the 16,695.32 high in July. From a strictly pedestrian perspective, the bubble and burst movement the past six months looks suspiciously like a classic pump-and-dump. While the Transportation Average accounts for only 20 individual stocks, it is still important to note the severity of its rapid demise and the causes behind it. From auto workers' strikes and labor demands to excessive regulations on the transportation industry and the high cost of fuel, the industry is beset with extreme conditions on all sides. Moving people and goods across the country and around the world has become an expensive prospect for companies like UPS (UPS, -22% YTD), FedEx (FDX, +29% YTD), major freight carriers, and commercial airlines like United (UAL), American (AAL), Southwest (LUV), each down more than 40% since mid-July. As there is virtually no mainstream coverage of the Transportation Average, it does weigh heavily on other industries and is inexorably tied to the Dow Industrials via Dow Theory. With the primary trend so obviously bearish, it doesn't take a Richard Russell (RIP) to discern the disturbing pattern and its scary prospects. Late Thursday afternoon and all day Friday saw the Dow Industrials under severe selling pressure, catching down to its peers (S&P, NASDAQ, NYSE Comp.), erasing gains for the year, and putting the index perilously close to a near-term correction, down 9.02% since August 1. Of course, the Dow is already in a long-term correction off the all-time high of 36,799.65 from January 4, 2022 (-11.91%), as is the S&P 500, (4,796.56, Jan. 3, 2022, -14.16%). The NASDAQ, from its November 19,2021 peak at 16,057.44, is down 21.26%, firmly in a bear market. Do not be fooled by the pundits saying the NASDAQ is in correction. It never retained the all-time high, so what's developed over the past year was only a cyclical bullish trend within the framework of a bear market. The NASDAQ is down 11.94% since its July 19 peak of 14,358.02, well enough for the "correction" crowd who wears short-term blinders to deflect the obvious bear market indicators. On a weekly basis, the Trannys fell for the sixth straight week and 11th in the last 13. The Dow Industrials fell for the fifth time in the past six weeks. The NASDAQ suffered a decline for the thrid straight week, while the S&P 500 took a loss for the second consecutive week, but sixth in the last eight. The S&P has lost ground on 10 of the last 12 trading sessions. Finally, the NYSE Composite, which ended in the red in seven of the last eight sessions, showed its second straight weekly loss and fifth in the last six. Earnings reports from some of the biggest names in tech, including Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta Platforms (META) couldn't stem the tide. The NASDAQ saw concentrated selling from midday Tuesday through the closing bell Thursday. The coming week offers more fireworks with the Fed's FOMC meeting concluding Wednesday afternoon and October non-farm payroll data prior to the opening bell Friday. Additionally, the JOLTS report, ADP Payrolls, Challenger job cuts, plus another busy week for earnings reports are the highlights. Monday, October 30: McDonald's (MCD), HSBC (HSBC), Transocean (RIG). Tuesday, October 31: Amgen (AMGN), ABInBev (BUD), Caesars (CZR), Caterpillar (CAT), Pfizer (PFE), JetBlue Airways (JBLU), British Petroleum (BP), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). Wednesday, November 1: CVS Health (CVS), PayPal (PYPL), DuPont (DD), Estée Lauder (EL), Qualcomm (QCOM), Yum! Brands (YUM), Airbnb (ABNB), Electronic Arts (EA), Roku (ROKU), AIG (AIG), Humana (HUM), Etsy (ETSY). Thursday, November 2: Shopify (SHOP), Moderna (MRNA), Apple (AAPL), Palantir (PLTR), Coinbase (COIN), Starbucks (SBUX), Duke Energy (DUK), Barrick (GOLD), Monster Beverage (MNST), DraftKings (DKNG). Friday, November 3: Cardinal Health (CAH), Fubo (FUBO). There may be some short-term relief in stocks, maybe not. Earnings misses have seen stocks seriously shredded by investors. Keep an eye on the Dow components reporting this week: McDonald's, Apple, Caterpillar, Pfizer. Things could get dicey if war picks up in Gaza and nearby countries or if interest rates take off again.
Monday's "Ackman Gambit", wherein billionaire trader Bill Ackman publicly (via X) announced that he was closing out his short positions, worked like a charm, dropping the 10-year note nine basis points and the 30-year bond down six. 2s, 3s, 5s, 7s, and 10s all dis-inverted from the 30, and 5s-10s are now normalized to the tune of eight basis points, a positive development ahead of the FOMC meeting 10/31-11/1. If there is ever to be a normalized curve again, either short term rates have to come down or long durations have to go higher, so the betting is on five percent a fait accompli for the 10-year over the near term. The Fed is likely to sit on its collective hands Wednesday, keeping the pause in place with the federal funds target rate at 5.25-5.50%, where it has remained since July. The Fed could indeed be done hiking, though investors have recently turned their attention away from inflation and interest rates to recession fears, the consensus believing that a recession will commence in the near future, if not this quarter, then surely in the first or second quarter of 2024. This was also the thinking late last year, and the expected downturn never materialized. There is still work to be done on inflation and normalization of the yield curve, but that is largely out of the Fed's control and into the hands of investors and banks. Uncertainty over military engagements, politics, and the economy are abundant.
Spreads:
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years) Oil/Gas WTI crude oil closed out the week at $85.16, dipping below $83 briefly on Thursday, but boosted by developments in the Middle East. Last week's Friday close was $88.30, down from $90.77 the week prior. Israel and the Middle East will be the dominant theme for oil prices until there's either a full-scale outbreak of hostilities or a calming of nerves. For now, Israel and the US have shown a propensity toward eliminating Hamas - and possibly Hezbollah - which means the situation won't be resolved any time soon. Predictions of oil at $100 to $140 or even higher have been met with efforts to keep economies intact by not crippling them with higher energy costs. The US national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline dropped again over the course of the week, from $3.51 to $3.46, the lowest since early July. According to gasbuddy.com, Georgia ($2.93), Texas and Mississippi, each at $2.95, now comprise the sub-$3.00 club. Next are Louisiana ($3.00), South Carolina and Alabama ($3.03), Arkansas ($3.06), Oklahoma ($3.07) and Tennessee ($3.11). Florida rose from $3.18 to $3.26, reversing the recent trend lower. In California, the average fell another 16 cents to $5.29, down from a high of $6.07 a month ago. Prices eased elsewhere in the West, with Washington ($4.68) down another 11 cents. Nevada fell to $4.59, down seven cents. Oregon ($4.30) and Arizona ($4.02) were sharply lower over the week, along with Utah ($3.71) and Idaho ($3.88). Prices eased in Montana, at $3.73 this week, down 16 cents. There remain just five states with prices over $4.00. In the Northeast, the highest gas prices remain in Pennsylvania ($3.69) and New York ($3.71). The lowest prices in the region are to be found in Ohio ($3.16) and Kentucky ($3.15). Illinois ($3.55) remained in the top spot in the Midwest, with North Dakota nearby ($3.53), though both were lower. Wisconsin and Missouri are the lowest in the region, at $3.18.
This week: $34,398.80 Bitcoin took another leap forward this week, but petered out just below $35,000. For what it's worth, this is Bitcoin's highest price in 18 months (May, 2022).
Gold:Silver Ratio: 86.76; last week: 84.70 Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 09/29: $1,864.60
Silver price 09/29: $22.39 On Friday, as the Israeli Defense Forces launched the long-awaited ground offensive into the Gaza Strip, the price gold began to accelerate past the $2,000 mark and ended the week at its highest point since July 19 ($2019.60). Considering that gold has risen $184.50 in the three weeks since the October 5 bottom at $1831.80, and that the Middle East conflict appears to only have just begun, there's well-deserved and ample speculation that the price will exceed the all-time high of $2,055.70 from May 4 of this year. As the United States and its European allies seem bent on igniting military conflicts in as many places as possible, the price of gold could well exceed those record highs in little time and proceed to set new levels for acquisition of the world's real money. The likelihood of a collapse of the COMEX and its associated suppression schemes with bullion banks, the LBMA, and the US Exchange Stabilization Fund also appears a distinct possibility in the near future. The Shanghai Futures Exchange and Moscow Exchange (MOEX) will assert considerable weight on the pricing structure in Asia and elsewhere. Western derivative structures will be hard-pressed to present reasonable and rational estimations. Military conflicts measure levels of frustration by the Western allies in their ability to dictate conditions to the rest of the world. As such, US belligerence is a symptom of a failing empire, struggling to retain relevance in a world that is rapidly rejecting their supposed authority. If the descent into war continues, the price of gold is likely to reach incredible levels. Silver lagged this week, actually losing ground, as the price was relentlessly beaten down, but it will follow gold's rise, and, in fact, may exceed it in percentage terms. Silver, the money of the common man, should appreciate considerably. Its price has been suppressed for decades, dating back to the "Crime of 1873". With the debasing of fiat currencies proceeding apace, silver should be a mainstay for wealth preservation and as a means of exchange. Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping included):
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) registered another positive week, gaining 92 cents, to $35.81, from the October 22 price of $34.89 per troy ounce.
Well, that's a wrap. Equity traders are hoping for some relief in the coming week. Whether they get it or not, stocks seem to have lost their luster. Waiting on the Fed to do nothing on Wednesday appears to be a fool's errand. Stocks could continue falling, but, narratives being served, the recent correction may be corrected by intervention of an insider kind. Despite the positive 4.9% reading on third quarter GDP, which was completely disregarded, there just doesn't appear to be any appetite for deep fishing.
At the Close, Friday, October 27, 2023:
For the Week:
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